The 2010 Braves season is set to begin later today. In recent years the Braves have faced many questions going into each season and there is no shortage of questions this year. It’s actually hard to say what to expect because there are simply too many unknowns. I think the worst case scenario is that the Braves have too many things go against them and end up finishing with 75 to 79 wins. At the other end of it, if the Braves have a lot of things go their way I believe the best they could do is win something like 89 to 94 games. It’s likely that some things will go well and other things well go against the Braves and they’ll end up somewhere in the middle.
The Braves have now gone 4 seasons without making the postseason or even finishing in the top 2 in the NL East. In 3 of the 4 years they finished 3rd and won between 79 and 86 games. Had Mark Teixeira not been dealt at the trade deadline in 2008 the Braves would almost certainly have won more than 72 games that season, though they would still likely have finished 4th. Then again, the Braves were a ridiculous 11-30 in 1-run games that year and with any kind of luck they could have been a .500 team even with the T-Rex trade.
I’m not sure if this team is better or worse than the last 4 editions. It seems like perhaps this year’s team might be the best the Braves have had since their run of division titles ended, but there’s always hope and optimism before opening day. If I had to guess objectively I’d say the Braves probably won’t be that much better than they have been over the last few years.
With that said, it’s possible that the Braves could have a tremendous season if everything goes right. I still doubt it would be enough to win the East but they might contend for the Wild Card. I think it will be there for the taking. But a lot of things will have to break the Braves way. I came up with a list of the 5 biggest and most critical questions facing the Braves as they begin their quest to return to October in Bobby Cox’s final year.
1. What will the Braves get from Troy Glaus?
This is the biggest question. The Braves are expecting (hoping) that Glaus will be their cleanup hitter and main power threat in a lineup that was seriously lacking in that department last year. He’s also supposed to be the right handed hitting threat the Braves desperately need and he’ll be counted on to give Chipper protection. If Glaus isn’t able to return to form and stay healthy the Braves will be in trouble because they did not sign another bat this offseason and they lost one in Adam LaRoche. This is troubling because it doesn’t seem all that likely that Glaus will be able to come all the way back from all of his shoulder problems and stay healthy for a full season. Making matters worse, Glaus will be playing first base, something he hasn’t done during his career. If this situation works out the Braves offense might be a lot better this year. If Glaus is a total bust the Braves are going to be screwed.
2. Can Billy Wagner stay healthy?
This is clearly a huge issue. Wagner is coming back from elbow surgery and he’s not a youngster anymore. If Wagner is able to stay relatively healthy he still may not be able to pitch as often as other closers. If Wagner stays healthy and is close to his former self the Braves will have one of the best 9th inning men in the game at the back of their pen. If Wagner can’t stay healthy the Braves pen will be a mess because Soriano and Gonzalez are gone.
3. Will Chipper rebound or continue to decline?
After winning the batting title in 2008, Chipper was not himself last season. He had one of his worst seasons, despite the fact that he was healthier than he had been in many years. The Braves need Chipper to be healthy again this year and they need him to be the Chipper Jones of 2007-2008. Because he’s in the latter stage of his career, it would make more sense if he played like something closer to the Chipper of Jones of last year. Also, you know he’s due for an injury here at some point.
4. What kind of year will Derek Lowe have?
Lowe was awful last season and the Braves need him to at least have a decent year in 2010. Though positioned as the staff ace, Lowe is not really a #1 starter even when he’s going great. He doesn’t have to have the best year of his career; he just needs to have a good year.
5. How good will Jason Heyward be?
This is big not only because he’s going to be the starting right fielder and one of the more capable hitters in the lineup, but also because his success or failure will have a major impact on the morale and confidence of the organization and the fans. If Heyward struggles early it might put an immediate damper on the hopes of the season.
Other Questions
You could make a list of 30 question marks for the Braves going into the year. The five above are the biggest in my opinion. Here are 5 of the next biggest questions going into the year:
What kind of a year will the Braves get from Nate McClouth?
How will Kawakami do in his 2nd year in the MLB?
Will there be enough fresh, healthy arms for the pen to hold up all year?
Will a true leadoff man emerge?
Can Tim Hudson come all the way back from the injury and be the guy he was in 07-08?
1 comment:
Doug,
In Cox's last year at the helm will we see a frontrunner emerge from our clubhouse to take the reins or is Braves management looking elsewhere?
Post a Comment