The Braves Blog: After Week One

It's Only One Week, Don't Panic!...But Go Ahead and Worry for Sure


Despite off days and rain delays, weird times and weird travels, and a bunch of other annoying things that take most of the fun out of the start of the baseball season, we made through a whirlwind first week of the year. The Braves and their fans have already experienced a lot in this young season. We've had our first comeback win; first come from behind late win; first hole in the wall game (as in: you threw something that left a hole in the wall); first extra inning loss; first shutout loss; first 1-run win and 1-run loss; first blowout win and first blowout loss; first Chipper homer and first Chipper injury; first Jason Heyward homer and first Jason Heyward golden sombrero; first Billy Wagner save and first Billy Wagner blown save; first home and road wins and first home and road losses; first series win and first series loss; we've been in 1st place, 2nd place and 3rd place; we've been over .500, at .500, and under .500; we've won consecutive games and lost consecutive games; and we've had our first Bobby Cox ejection. That's a lot of things to get out of the way in a first week.

We can't put a whole lot into one week of results. There's no reason to freak out yet. But if (like me) you got a bit caught up in all the positive vibes right there at the birth of the new season, feel free to come back into reality...or at least probability. As in: it's probably going to be a lot like last year and the year before that and the year before that going back to 2006. Which is pretty much what you should have expected if you were thinking rationally.

The numbers are fairly skewed at this point. The Braves have scored 35 runs and allowed 39. The hitting has actually been worse than that. After scoring 16 runs on opening day the Braves have scored 19 over 6 games, averaging about 3.17 runs scored per game. The pitching has been much better than the 39 runs allowed total looks. Prior to allowing 17 on Monday the Braves had allowed only 22 runs over 6 games, an average of 3.67 runs allowed per game. For the most part, the pitching has been solid and the offense has been poor. And that's basically what we should have expected.

Yes, things could easily be better. The Braves should have beaten the Giants in the opener in San Fran and they could easily have won the finale as well. But to be honest, the Braves are probably closer to 2-5 or 1-6 than they are to 4-3 or 5-2. It's sounds strange to say that a 16-5 game could have gone the other way but the Braves definitely could have wound up losing on opening day. The 1st inning explosion was built on a series of cheap hits. Then there was an absolutely enormous blown call that went in favor of the Braves later in the game. Had the correct call been made I'd say it's 50-50 whether or not the Braves win. Then in the 2nd game Chipper rescued the Braves with a 2 run blast in the 8th. If the Cubs intentionally walk CJ (or had Chipper's foul pop landed a few feet closer to Derek Lee) they probably win 2-1. So 3-4 isn't as bad as it feels.

There's no point in looking at the standings right now. Most realistic people thought the Braves shot at the playoffs was as a wild card team anyway. Also, the schedule is having an impact on things right now. The Phillies are 6-1, but considering that they've played 7 games against Houston and Washington, I'd be disappointing if I were a Phils fan.

While I don't think it makes sense to jump to conclusions after 7 games, I do think it's fair to point out the continuation of a pattern, whether it's a continuation from the end of last season, from spring training, or both. Let's look back at the 10 most major questions I listed for the Braves going into this season and see where we're at so far in terms of finding an answer.

1. What will the Braves get from Troy Glaus?

Prognosis after a week: Shaky. Very shaky. I admit that he's better than I thought he would be at first base but he still looks like an aging player trying to man first base because the NL doesn't have a DH. He should get better but he's not going to be anything like what we've been used to for the last few years. He's not going to be rock solid on routine plays and he's not going to save a lot of throws. Nothing will be smooth or instinctual.

As far as his performance at the plate (the most important issue), I'd say that I'm more worried now than I was a week ago. In 29 plate appearances (granted, a very small sample) he has 6 hits, but he has no extra base hits, just 2 walks, 7 strikeouts, and has hit into 2 double plays. Since coming back from shoulder problems late last year Glaus has 11 hits in 61 plate appearances with no homers, 2 doubles, 5 walks, and 15 strikeouts. He's hitting .200/.279/.236/.515 over those 61 PA (again, a small sample but not insignificant all things considered). This spring he had 0 homers and 13 strikeouts in 52 at bats. It's becoming more and more doubtful that his power will ever return. And if he doesn't have his power, he's basically worthless.

2. Can Wagner stay healthy?

Prognosis after a week: Don't know yet. He's pitched in 3 games but he has yet to pitch on back to back days. 6 strikeouts in 3 innings is encouraging.

3. Will Chipper bounce back?

Prognosis after a week: Well, he's back to being hurt. Other than that he is 2 for 12 with a big homer. He's played in only 4 of 7 games and he's come out of the game before the final out in 3 of those games.

4. What will we get out of Derek Lowe?

Prognosis after a week: I'd like to say a good outing and a bad outing but it's really more like a bad outing and a lucky outing. His opening day start was awful and highly reminiscent of last year, as he allowed 5 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks over 6 innings, giving up a pair of massive homers. In his second start, Lowe gave up only 1 run on 4 hits over 6 innings but he walked 7 batters and benefited greatly from a pair of runners being caught stealing and weak bottom of the order hitters coming up at opportune times. On the positive side, he did get more ground balls in his last start.

5. How good will Jason Heyward be?

Prognosis after a week: Damn good. But he's not going to win the MVP as a rookie. We basically already knew all of that. He has 3 homers, 9 RBI, and 5 BB. He also has 10 K. There will be good and bad, as with all talented youngsters.

6. What kind of a year will Nate McClouth have?

Prognosis after a week: Don't count on much. He did almost hit a slam on Monday but instead it was a foul ball and he then fanned. He's now 2 for 17 with 0 EXBH and 8 K on the year. He does have 5 BB, but remember that he's batting 8th where it's often difficult not to walk. He has yet to attempt a stolen base. That needs to change. I don't know if Cox has taken away McClouth's ability to go when he thinks he can make it or if McClouth has been shy on his own, but he needs to start swiping some bags. If he isn't going to hit for power and he isn't going to steal bases (and with great success) the way he did in Pittsburgh, McClouth isn't worth very much because he's not a high on-base guy and he's not that great defensively.

7. How will Kawakami be in his 2nd year?

Prognosis after a week: There's reason to be optimistic. In his only start of the year so far he allowed 3 runs over 6 innings, giving up 5 hits but only walking 1. He deserved better. However, he had only 1 K and the Giants faired much better against him the second time through the order.

8. How will the bullpen arms hold up?

Prognosis after a week: No way of knowing at this point.

9. Will a true leadoff hitter emerge?

Prognosis after a week: No. This wasn't the best question because the Braves don't have a true leadoff man on the roster and they don't normally appear out of thin air. A better question would probably be "Will the leadoff spot be anything but a gaping hole?" And the answer to that question would also be "no." McClouth and Melky Cabrera have been manning that spot and failing miserably. They shouldn't be there, and there are better options, but it's doubtful Cox will explore them. As for Cabrera, he's so far 3 for 29 with 4 BB and a double. Let me make this clear: he's nothing more than average player and he's never been more than that. It was ridiculous during the off-season how many Braves fans were willing to argue this point. The guy now has a career OBP of .329. That isn't good. Since the start of the 2007 season his OBP is .320. So get used to him. Get used to him getting a lot of at bats (batting leadoff means you'll have the most plate appearances for those who still don't understand why batting order is important) and making a lot of outs.

10. How good will Huddy be?

Prognosis after a week: Excuse the cheesy pet name but you gotta love this guy if you're a Braves fan. He looked great in his only start of the year so far.


So let's hope the second week is better. I would like to wrap things up by discussing Jo Jo Reyes. Look, I know he's only pitched in 1 game and it was a game we had already lost. I also know that he's basically just filling a spot on the roster until Scott Proctor is healthy. All the same, I don't want to see anymore of him. The always plump lefty was downright pathetic in his first appearance of the year on Monday night, allowing 9 runs on 10 hits in 3.1 innings of mop-up duty (against those mighty Padres in that band box Petco Park). Reyes has now pitched in 41 games at the Major League level during parts of the last 4 seasons. He is 5-15 with a 6.40 ERA and a hideous 1.67 WHIP over 194 innings. He has surrendered 33 homers. For his career he has allowed 10.5 hits per 9 innings and 4.5 BB per 9 innings while striking out only 5.9 per 9 innings. He has a K to BB ratio of just 1.31.

There's no reason to stick with this guy any longer. Clearly he doesn't have it. After struggling mightily early last year, Reyes went down to AAA where he remained for the rest of the season. His numbers there weren't terrible but they weren't very good for a 24 year old pitcher with plenty of experience in the minors. In 66 innings he gave up 6 homers, struck out just 32 men, and had a WHIP of 1.394. If you have a WHIP of nearly 1.40 and you average less than 0.5 K per inning you probably don't need to be pitching in the Majors anytime soon. This spring he was awful in 9 appearances, giving up 12 runs on 14 hits and 6 walks over 13 innings. He needs to be cut loose. There have been many failed pitching prospects for the Braves over the years and not many have come back to succeed elsewhere. I say we use Reyes for a scapegoat and try and cleanse ourselves of that ghastly performance on Monday night.