2010 NBA Playoff Predictions
The NBA regular season is over and very soon the long, long, long strange trip that is the NBA playoffs will be underway. It seems like every spring we start getting amped up for the possibility of a historically exciting playoff season but it never turns out to be anything special. During the regular season it seems like there isn’t much difference between the team with the best record and the team with the 10th best record. You start thinking that the Western Conference playoffs will be knockdown, drag out fight in which every series will go seven games and anything can happen. Then the playoffs actually start and the #4 seed sweeps the #5 seed. It’s been a bit of a letdown. Once again this year I found myself predicting the higher seeded teams to win almost all of the time. I guess it’s a little boring but I gotta call it how I see it.
Eastern Conference
The only lower seeded team that I think has any kind of a shot to win a first round series is Miami, and I don’t like their chances that much. I’ll be surprised if Chicago wins a game against Cleveland. The Bulls actually have a negative scoring differential and are just 18-27 against teams with winning records, while the Cavs had the best record in the NBA. I believe Charlotte would have been trouble for either the Hawks or the Celtics but not for Orlando. Charlotte is tough to beat at home and they allowed the least points in the NBA this season. But the Magic are just too tough. Orlando is even better at home than the Bobcats, and while Charlotte is 13-28 on the road, the Magic are 25-16 in away games. I believe Milwaukee would have been trouble for any of the higher seeds in the East if Andrew Bogut hadn’t gotten hurt. As a Hawks fan, I was definitely concerned that we might end up facing the Bucks in the first round because they had become a very good team. When they lost Bogut they went from being extremely dangerous to being a non-factor. The Bucks are just 18-26 against teams over .500. Also, while the Hawks struggle on the road, Milwaukee has lost 13 times at home this year, including recently to Atlanta. Miami has been playing well lately and the last couple of months have been a struggle for the Celtics. However, I think Boston will turn it on once the playoffs begin and they will get past the Heat. It could be an ugly series, as both teams struggle for offense at times, but both teams also play tough defense.
While I definitely like Boston’s chances against Miami, I still don’t think they’ll get by Cleveland even if they are playing at a high level. The Cavs are just as good as Boston defensively and (surprisingly, in my opinion) much better offensively. The Hawks have no chance of beating Orlando. I love the Hawks and I’m obviously hoping for some sort of shocking result but it just isn’t rational to think that we might upset the Magic. In fact, it seems likely that the Hawks will be eliminated in decisive fashion, setting up a Cleveland-Orlando rematch in the Eastern Conference Finals. Orlando is better than Atlanta in just about every aspect of the game and in 3 of 4 head-to-head matchups between the teams this season the Hawks were beaten soundly.
I know people will understand what I’m talking about when I say that you just get the feeling that it’s time for Lebron to win a championship. But that’s about the only justification I can think of for picking the Cavs to beat the Magic. Everything else, in my opinion, points to the Magic beating Cleveland again to reach the Finals. In most categories the Magic are as good as or better than the Cavs. Last year the Cavs had lost only 2 games at home all season and the Magic came in and took the opener in Cleveland and were a miracle Lebron shot away from taking game 2. The Magic would go on to win the series in 6, and 2 of their 4 wins in the series were by double digits. I don’t see why things would be that much different this time. Yes, the Cavs have Shaq and Antawn Jamison this time, but Orlando has Vince Carter and a healthy Jameer Nelson. Lebron James is the game’s best player but Orlando is the better team.
Western Conference
Once again the Western Conference is loaded with 50 win teams, but as I mentioned earlier, I still think there are clear favorites in most of the first round series. The Lakers do not go into these playoffs on any sort of a roll. If they are going to repeat they will have to be able to flip the switch and play their best when it counts. Oklahoma City is the 8th seed but there is no comparison between the Thunder and the Chicago Bulls (the other 8th seed). The Lakers finished only 7 games ahead of Oklahoma City in the standings. By comparison, the Cavs finished 20 games ahead of the Bulls, and the #2 seed in the East (Orlando) finished 6 games ahead of the #3 seed in the East (Atlanta). Kevin Durant is an absolute stud. All of that said, the Lakers are clearly the better team and they should win the series in less than 7 for sure.
Dallas is the #2 seed in the West and they appear to be the team most capable of stopping the Lakers from reaching the Finals for a 3rd straight year. However, the Mavs don’t exactly have a history of overachieving in the playoffs. In the first round they will go up against San Antonio; not exactly a light weight. It seems that the window for the Spurs to win a 5th title has closed but you still have to fear them because of who they are. I think the Spurs will push Dallas to the edge but I like the Mavericks to come out on top.
The Trail Blazers won 50 games this season but their chances of doing anything substantial in the playoffs pretty much evaporated when Brandon Roy injured his knee a few a days ago. If they beat Phoenix in the first round I will be stunned. Utah gagged in their final game of the season, losing big at home to the Suns to fall from the #3 seed in the West to the #5 seed. Had Utah won they would have had the home court advantage in the first round against a crippled Portland team that they swept 4-0 in head-to-head competition this season. Now they will be going up against the Nuggets, a team they lost to in 3 of 4 head-to-head contests this season, without the home court edge. This is a pretty significant blow to Utah because they are much more difficult to handle at home…and so are the Nuggets. It looked like the Jazz would come into the playoffs on a roll but instead they will be coming off of a major letdown. In addition, the Jazz are not totally healthy. Denver isn’t completely healthy either and they will not have their head coach for this series. Still, I think the Jazz’s fate was sealed on Wednesday when they choked away the #3 seed.
Denver could not beat the Lakers in the conference finals last season and there’s no reason to think they would be able to win a series against LA this year either. A Phoenix-Dallas matchup in the semifinals would be pretty fun. The Suns are just 22-22 against teams with winning records and they still don’t do much to keep the other team from scoring. The Mavs should win that series.
I don’t think the Lakers are invincible by any means but I can’t imagine them losing in the Western Conference playoffs unless Kobe or Gasol gets hurt. They might have to go 6 games or so but eventually they should win, regardless of who they end up playing in the conference finals.
NBA Finals
I am expecting a rematch of last year’s Finals. The Magic lost in 5 games last time but it was not a one-sided series. The Magic were very, very close to evening up the series at 2-2 and making it a best of 3. Instead, they wound up losing game 4 to fall down 3-1 and that pretty much took them out of it. This time the Magic will have the home court advantage and they will be the healthier team. I think playing constantly for 3 years has taken a bit of a toll on Kobe and I just don’t know if he’ll be able to play at as high a level as he did last year when he was the MVP of the Finals. I think the Magic are the best team and I’m picking them to upset LA and win the title.
Predictions
Eastern Conference
First Round
#1 Cleveland over #8 Chicago (4-0)
#2 Orlando over #7 Charlotte (4-1)
#3 Atlanta over #6 Milwaukee (4-1)
#4 Boston over #5 Miami (4-2)
Conference Semifinals
#1 Cleveland over #4 Boston (4-2)
#2 Orlando over #3 Atlanta (4-1)
Conference Finals
#2 Orlando over #1 Cleveland (4-3)
Western Conference
First Round
#1 Los Angeles over #8 Oklahoma City (4-2)
#2 Dallas over #7 San Antonio (4-3)
#3 Phoenix over #6 Portland (4-1)
#4 Denver over #5 Utah (4-3)
Conference Semifinals
#1 Los Angeles over #4 Denver (4-2)
#2 Dallas over #3 Phoenix (4-3)
Conference Finals
#1 Los Angeles over #2 Dallas (4-2)
NBA Finals
#2 Orlando over #1 Los Angeles (4-3)
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