Monday, January 18, 2010

The NFL Blog: 2009 Conference Championship Round Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (2-2); Straight Up (3-1).
Season: Vs. Spread (124-133-6); Straight Up (174-89).

Divisional Round Review: Still can’t break .500 ATS but at least I picked the winners in 3 of 4 games. The games sucked for the most part. The last game was competitive but I was disappointed that the Chargers couldn’t give us 1 vs. 2 in both conferences.

Conference Championship Games Preview: I knew we were going to see the Colts and Jets again. I didn’t think it would be for the AFC Championship but I knew at some point the Colts were going to have to come face to face with their forfeit back in week 16. As for the NFC, we got the match-up that we all wanted to see after all.

AFC Championship Game

New York Jets (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Jets beat the spread
Comment: So here we are again. A few weeks after the Colts lay down and gave up their shot at a perfect season--while at the same time allowing the Jets to stay alive in the playoff race—the two teams will meet again at Lucas Oil Stadium. Once again the stakes will be high. This time we have to assume that the Colts will actually try and win. The Jets stayed hot last week, pulling off a huge upset of the Chargers on the road. The Colts responded to critics in their first real game in 3 weeks, blowing out the Ravens at home. Now, will Karma catch up to the Colts? Or will the clock finally strike midnight on the Cinderella Jets?

Whether you thought the Jets deserved to be in the playoffs or not you have to admit they deserve to be in this game. The Jets are now 11-7 on the year (11-7 against the spread) and 7-3 on the road (7-3 ATS). New York has outscored opponents by an average score of 21.6 to 14.7 for an average differential of +6.9. Interestingly enough, the Jets have an even better differential on the road, outscoring opponents by an average score of 23.2 to 15.4 for a differential of +7.8. The Jets are obviously hot. They have won 4 straight (4-0 ATS) and they are 7-1 in their last 8 (7-1 ATS). They’ve won 4 straight on the road (4-0 ATS) and if you count their game against the Bills in Toronto they have won 5 straight on the road (5-0 ATS). This season, the Jets are now 5-2 straight up in games in which they have been underdogs (5-2 ATS). Over the last 2 years, the Jets have gone 8-3 straight up when playing as underdogs (8-3 ATS).

The Colts shook off the rust and the doubts last week to reach the AFC Championship Game as the #1 seed. Indy is now 15-2 on the year (11-5-1 ATS) and the Colts are 8-1 at home (4-4-1 ATS). The Colts have outscored opponents 25.6 to 18.2 on average for an average differential of +7.4. Somewhat surprisingly, the Colts have been less dominant at home, outscoring opponents 23.4 to 17.7 on average for an average scoring differential of +5.7. If you grant that the Colts really did not try to win either of their last 2 regular season games, you could say that the Colts are really still undefeated. Outside of those 2 games, the Colts are 15-0 and they are 11-3-1 ATS in those games. The Colts are 4-0 straight up this year in games in which they were favored by a TD or more (2-2 ATS). Over the last 2 years the Colts are 7-1 straight up when playing as at least a 7 point favorite (just 3-5 ATS).

There are not a lot of new injuries to discuss. The Jets will not have DE Shaun Ellis at 100% this week. Ellis broke a hand early in the game against San Diego and his effectiveness was limited the rest of the way. He will play the Championship Game with a protective cast on the hand but you’d have to think it will hamper him a bit, considering how much defensive ends use their hands. There are a few other players banged up on both sides but nothing else new for the most part.

This match-up really comes down to the quarterbacks and the defenses. That might be the case in most games but it’s especially true for this game. You could substitute just about any quarterback in the league for Peyton Manning and the Jets would be favored. If you put a more experienced QB in place of Mark Sanchez, the spread would probably be 3 or so. The Jets are the more impressive team when looking at the numbers and it’s not close. But the Colts just keep winning when it counts. Offensively, the Colts were a better team during the regular season. Indy ranked 7th in scoring and 9th in total offense, while the Jets ranked 17th in scoring and 20th in total offense. The two offenses were mirror opposites of one another. Indy was the #2 passing offense in the league but finished dead last in rushing. The Jets were 31st in passing but they had the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. New York was tied 10th in fewest sacks allowed but then again they didn’t throw it much. The Colts threw the ball a ton and still allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL. The Colts also led the league in 3rd down conversion percentage, while the Jets were 20th in that category on offense. Clearly, you’d have to give the edge to the Colts on offense. However, teams built on the pass have stumbled more often than strong rushing offenses in the postseason. And Mark Sanchez has obviously grown as a QB from the first week of the season until now.

On the defensive side of the ball it is New York that has the dramatic advantage. While the Colts ranked 8th in scoring defense during the regular season, they were just 18th in total defense. The Jets were #1 in the NFL in scoring defense and #1 in total defense. The Jets finished #8 against the run and #1 in the NFL against the pass. The Colts were 14th against the pass and 24th against the run. The Colts finished tied for 16th in sacks, while the Jets were tied for 18th. On 3rd down, the Jets have a huge edge. New York was #1 in the NFL defensively on 3rd down, while the Colts were 31st in that category.

Both teams were above board in turnover margin. The Colts were +2, while the Jets were +1. I think the Jets have a clear edge in special teams. The Colts do not cover kickoffs well and they don’t punt much so there’s always a chance for a mistake in that area. The Jets are a good kick return team. If the game comes down to a field goal the Jets would have the edge, as the Colts are without Adam Vinatieri, while Jay Feely has had a strong year for New York.

Clearly the Colts will benefit from playing at home. Their offense will run better on their own turf with no crowd noise to distract them. Mark Sanchez will have to deal with a much louder crowd than he has faced over the last few weeks. However, the Jets don’t seem to mind playing on the road. The offense is built on the run so crowd noise isn’t as much of a factor. Also, the defense is not as reliant on getting a good jump on the snap because it’s all based on a delayed blitz scheme. The Jets are playing with absolutely no pressure. The Colts are the ones playing with something to lose. If things don’t go well, the crowd could get nervous and the Colts may tighten up as well. The Jets are well coached on both sides of the ball. The Colts have a genius under center. This game could well come down to how successful the Jets are at confusing Peyton Manning.

We will never know what would have happened if the Colts had gone for the undefeated season against the Jets back in week 16. While the Colts had controlled things for the most part prior to the starters being benched, the score was only 15-10. It doesn’t really matter now. But we have seen Manning have more success than most against New York’s defense, even if it was only for 6 possessions. I think Manning is going to have to play a brilliant game this week for the Colts to win. I don’t see Indy getting much on the ground. I think the Colts will have more success than most teams throwing on New York but I think the Jets will turn Manning over at least once and get off the field on 3rd downs much more often than other defenses. On the other side, I think the Jets will be able to run all over Indy’s defense. If these two teams had played last week I would have called for an upset victory by the Jets. But the Colts showed no ill-effects of taking the foot off the gas last week. I believe the Jets have a chance to win this game because I think it will be low scoring and close late. But I’m going to pick Indy to win by a field goal and get back to the Super Bowl.


NFC Championship Game

Minnesota (+4) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Vikings beat the spread
Comment: Well, now that the Cowboys and Cardinals have been vanquished, the match-up we all expected months ago will finally take place on Sunday. Brett Favre is again one game from the Super Bowl, only this time he won’t be playing on the Frozen Tundra. Far from it. The Superdome has been the site of many a big game but never before has it played host to the NFC Championship Game.

The Vikings stumbled a bit towards the end of the regular season but they wound up grabbing the #2 seed in the NFC and they enter this game 13-4 on the season (10-6-1 ATS). However, the Vikings have been a much more average team on the road this season, going 4-4 away from home to this point (4-4 ATS). The Vikings have outscored opponents by an average score of 29.6 to 18.5 this season for a +11.1 scoring differential. But that mark falls dramatically on the road, where the Vikes have outscored opponents 26.0 to 23.5 on average for a +2.5 average differential. Since starting the year 10-1, the Vikings have gone 3-3 over their last 6 games (3-3 ATS). After winning their first 3 road games easily, the Vikings are now 1-4 in their last 5 away from home (1-4 ATS). They have lost 3 straight on the road entering this game (0-3 ATS).

The Saints were the top team in the NFL for most of this season but they ended the year on a 3 game losing skid. The Saints silenced a lot of doubters with their blowout win over the Cardinals last week; a performance reminiscent of the first half of the season when they looked like the Greatest Show on Turf. The Saints are now 14-3 overall on the season (9-8 ATS) and 7-2 at home (5-4 ATS). New Orleans has outscored opponents 32.6 to 20.9 on average this year for a +11.7 scoring differential per game. In home games, that margin grows to +12.5, as the Saints have outscored the opposition 33.2 to 20.7 at the Superdome. The Saints rebounded in a big way last week but they are still just 1-3 in their last 4 (1-3 ATS) and they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.

There aren’t a lot of new injuries to discuss for these two teams. But it’s important to note that both teams benefited greatly from the bye week. DE Ray Edwards tweaked a knee for the Vikings during the game with Dallas but he should be able to play on Sunday. For the Saints, Reggie Bush looked fantastic and fully healthy for the first time in months last week. He will be needed again on Sunday.

This game features a match-up of two of the most explosive, high powered, and balanced offensive attacks in the game. The Saints ranked 1st in scoring offense and 1st in total offense this season. The Vikings were 2nd in scoring offense and 5th in total offense. While the Saints have had a reputation for being a dangerous passing team ever since Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans, the biggest change this season has been in their willingness to run the ball. The Saints were 4th in the NFL in passing and 6th in rushing. The Vikings also had a balanced attack but they weren’t nearly as good on the ground as most expected. Minnesota ended up 8th in the NFL in passing and just 13th in rushing. Minnesota’s offensive line was highly touted but they struggled to protect at times, finishing tied for 15th in sacks allowed. The Saints, on the other hand, kept Brees clean all season, finishing with the 4th fewest sacks allowed in the NFL. Both of these teams were great on 3rd down. The Saints were 6th in the NFL converting on 3rd down; the Vikings were 5th. When they have everybody healthy, the Saints are almost impossible to stop on offense. The Vikings have not run the ball well lately but Favre has now had a full season to gel with his receivers and they appear to be clicking at the moment.

Defensively the Vikings have an advantage, though perhaps not as much as some would think. To put things in an overly simple way: the Vikings defense has been good but not as good as we expected; the Saints defense hasn’t been great but it’s been much better than we expected. Early on in the season, the Saints defense was making plays and really changing the way people looked at the team. As the year went on, however, the defense started to be more of a liability. It’s not like the offense has to score 50 points a game in order to overcome the shortcomings of the defense. The defense is actually capable of winning the game for New Orleans if they get turnovers. Also, there’s no question that injuries started to take a toll on the defense as the year went on. But the Saints have to turn the ball over and they have to get stops on 3rd down and in the red zone in order to be effective defensively. For the Vikings, it’s all about getting heat on the quarterback. Being stout against the run is a given for Minnesota and they have one of the top pass rushers in the game in Jared Allen. But when quarterbacks have time to throw against Minnesota they can move the ball, as the Vikings are not as strong in the secondary. Overall, the Vikings have the edge statistically on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota was 10th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense this season; the Saints were just 20th in scoring defense and 25th in total defense. The Saints ranked 21st against the run and 26th against the pass. The Vikings were the #2 defense against the run this year but just 19th against the pass. The Saints finished tied for 13th in sacks this season but they are without Charles Grant throughout the playoffs. The Vikings are the top sack team in the NFL. Also, the Saints were just 14th defensively on 3rd down, while the Vikings were 3rd.

Both teams had more takeaways than turnovers this year but it was a bigger part of the success for the Saints. New Orleans was +11 in turnover margin this season; 3rd best in the NFL. The Vikings finished +6 in turnover margin, tied 8th in the NFL, and they would have been much better if not for the struggles of star running back Adrian Peterson. I think the Vikings have a slight edge in the special teams department. The Saints have struggled covering kicks this season and the Vikings have some dangerous return men. If the game comes down to the kickers the Vikings would have a major advantage, as Ryan Longwell has been one of the best in the game this year, while the Saints have struggled to find a dependable kicker.

While in general I think the media overrates the home field advantage that the Saints have at the Superdome, it should certainly help them this Sunday. It seems hard to deny that the Vikings are a significantly weaker team on the road. I think both teams will have success moving the ball. In my opinion, this game will come down to the red zone and which team does a better job taking advantage of scoring opportunities. Also, at some point if Adrian Peterson does not step up and have an impact on the game, Favre is going to force the issue and get into trouble. I think these teams are close to equal and if the game was played on a neutral field I would give the edge to Minnesota based on their defense. But the game will be played in New Orleans on Sunday and I’m picking the Saints to win it by a field goal.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

The NFL Blog: 2009 Divisional Round Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (2-2); Straight Up (2-2).
Season: Vs. Spread (122-131-6); Straight Up (171-88).

Wild Card Round Review: Oh well. It could have been worse but it could have been better. I just can’t believe Green Bay’s defense couldn’t stop Arizona even once or twice.

Divisional Round Preview: I was all ready to pick New Orleans and Indianapolis to lose but the wrong teams won. I just wonder how much longer Arizona can keep this up. If they beat New Orleans I’m going to start getting scared.

Saturday’s Late Day Game

Arizona (+7) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Cardinals beat the spread
Comment: Ahhhh…I hate the frickin Cardinals so much. How did they destroy Green Bay’s defense like that? It was obviously a game that could have gone either way in the end. When Green Bay won the toss in OT you thought they were going to win. But they didn’t. And let’s be honest: Green Bay was lucky to be in the game. Give the Packers credit for a lot of the things they did well and for not giving up. But Arizona should have had the game won a number of times before the defense scored in OT to end Green Bay’s chances. The Cardinals were heading in for a score to make it 24-0 in the first half when Charles Woodson was able to rip the ball away from Larry Fitzgerald and the Packers went down and scored to get back in the game. Then there was the onsides kick that somehow caught the Cardinals off guard. There were a number of penalties against Arizona defenders that could have gone either way. The Packers were able to convert on a pair of crucial 4th downs. And then there was the blown field goal by Neil Rackers which was one of the more obvious joke jobs I have ever seen. Arizona’s offense looked unstoppable and the defense was its usual opportunistic self. And it looks like the Cardinals have managed to keep a running back fresh for the playoffs again this year. Beanie Wells was a force in last week’s game. And they did all of that without Anquan Boldin.

Somehow the Cardinals are just able to flip the switch whenever they want and become a Super Bowl contender again. The numbers are basically meaningless. Arizona doesn’t even come to play until the postseason. They know they have the division title in the bag so they take it easy and wait to turn it on in the playoffs. It worked last year and it worked last week. At this point I’m resigned to the fact that it’s going to keep working. I really don’t see any reason why Arizona couldn’t go into New Orleans and come out with a win. Kurt Warner went up against one of the best defenses in the league (statistically) last week and he was totally unfazed. What will he do against one of the weaker defenses in the league? And it’s a defense that especially struggles against the pass. You have to pressure Warner or he will eat you alive and I just don’t see why the Saints will be able to get more pressure on Warner than the Packers did.

Arizona is now 11-6 and 10-7 against the spread. The Cardinals are a surprising 6-2 on the road this season (5-3 ATS). They have outscored opponents by 3.3 points per game this year and that number goes up to +7.7 on the road. It really doesn’t do any good to go back and look at how Arizona finished the regular season. They are 3-3 in their last 6 and 3-4 ATS in their last 7. But it’s irrelevant. They are simply a different team in the playoffs.

We all know how the Saints started the season and we all know how they finished it. They lost their last 3 games, and in contrast to some other teams, the Saints were actually trying to win all of their games up until the finale. The losses at home to Dallas and Tampa were legit. They also needed a miraculous comeback and collapse by the Redskins in order to beat Washington. The defense was always being covered up a bit by the offense but it was the Saints high powered offense that was struggling down the stretch. New Orleans finished 13-3 (8-8 ATS) and 6-2 at home (4-4 ATS). They outscored opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game during the season (+10.3 at home) but much of that damage was done early on. Aside from losing their last 3 games they have also lost 5 straight ATS. They are just 2-8 in their last 10 ATS after starting the season 6-0 ATS.

The Saints should be helped on offense by the improved health of some of their players. Receiver Lance Moore and running back Pierre Thomas should be ready to go. But the Saints will have to deal with an Arizona defense that has an uncanny knack for causing chaos. The Packers turned the ball over on their first two possessions last week and Arizona turned it into 14 quick points. Then the defense won the game by returning another turnover for the game winning touchdown. They get pressure, they tackle, they strip the ball, and the defensive backs have the speed and the smarts to trick QB’s into mistakes. They will get burned every once in a while but they also make a lot of plays. The Saints were great at pass protection this season, allowing the 4th fewest sacks in the NFL. But Arizona’s defense was 6th in sacks and I think they’ll be able to pressure Brees the way that Dallas did. If you pressure Brees he is not nearly as deadly as he is with time to throw. One thing about the Cardinals pass rushers is that they are very adept at jumping the snap count and that can beat even the best offensive line. If the Saints can avoid falling behind, they will be able to mix the run into their offense and keep things balanced the way they did during the season. That would certainly help. For one, they might be able to run effectively on Arizona. Secondly, it will keep Arizona’s defense honest. However, I just don’t see how this will happen because the Cards will likely put the Saints in a hole the way they do against everyone else in the playoffs. If the Saints do fall behind, it will be interesting to see if the Saints can keep from becoming one-dimensional.

I don’t see the Saints stopping Arizona on the other side of the ball. Brees and the other members of the Saints offense need to be prepared for a shootout. How are they going to get pressure on Warner? Arizona threw the ball on every play except for like 2 or 3 this season and they still finished tied for the 6th fewest sacks allowed. The Saints defense tied for 13th in sacks and now they don’t have Charles Grant. New Orleans should benefit from having a healthier Darren Sharper. LB Scott Shanle should also be able to come back this week after sitting out due to concussions. They will need all the help they can get, especially if Anquan Boldin is able to go this week. Arizona scored 51 without Boldin on a Green Bay defense that had some of the best numbers in the league. What will they do with Boldin against a Saints defense that was 20th in scoring defense, 25th in total defense, 26th in pass defense, and 21st in rush defense?

A lot of people make a big deal over playing in the Superdome but I’ve never bought it. More bad things have happened to the home team in that place than good. Even this year the Saints had a better record on the road (7-1) than at home. Including this season, the Saints are now 6 games over .500 in the regular season this decade at 83-77. Guess what. They are 4 games under .500 at home this decade, at 37-41. They’ve never had a big home field advantage. In 8 of the 10 seasons during this decade the Saints had a better record on the road than they did at home. Everybody wants to talk about how “oh, ever since Katrina that place has turned into the biggest home field advantage in sports.” Ehhh, not really. Since the start of the 2006 season, the Saints are 18-13 at home and 20-13 on the road (extra road game last year when they played in London). In 2006, when the Saints went 10-6 and reached the NFC Championship Game, they were 4-4 at the Dome and 6-2 on the road, although they did win a home playoff game over the Eagles. In 2000 when the Saints went 10-6 they were just 3-5 at home, but again, they won a home playoff game over the Rams. In their previous 3 home playoff games they had lost (87, 91, 92). My point is that I don’t think it’s much of an advantage playing at the Superdome, especially when Arizona is a team that is just as well suited for the indoor, turf game. Maybe the crowd noise will help New Orleans get pressure on Warner but I highly doubt it. And Arizona doesn’t mind going on the road anymore. The Cards had as good of a road record this season as the Saints did at home and a better record ATS. Arizona went to Carolina in last year’s divisional round, where the Panthers were 8-0, and they turned it into a joke. Oh by the way, New Orleans is 79-78-3 ATS this decade. They are 48-31-3 ATS on the road and 27-45-2 ATS at home.

During the regular season the Saints had the #1 scoring offense and the #1 total offense in the NFL. They were 4th in passing and 6th in rushing. Arizona was tied 14th in scoring defense; 20th in total defense; 23rd in pass defense; and 17th in rush defense. None of that matters. New Orleans should score some points but the Cardinals will get their turnovers and big plays on defense. I don’t think the Saints defense will be able to slow Arizona down at all. New Orleans was 20th in scoring defense; 25th in total defense; 26th in pass defense; and 21st in rushing defense. Compare those numbers to the gaudy stats put up by the Green Bay defense that Arizona shredded last week. There has been something special about the Saints this year. They expected to win and they did for the first 13 weeks but they seem to have lost something lately. The Cardinals have been on a remarkable run in the playoffs over their last 5 games and they now expect to win. If this is a close game, I give Arizona the edge at QB and at head coach. If the game is decided by a field goal both teams could be in trouble. The Saints need to get a big play out of their return game and I think they will. Courtney Roby has been one of the best kick returners in the game this year. Reggie Bush should be healthy by this point and he is way over due to break a long punt return (if the Saints can ever force a punt). If the game is a shootout, I think playing that overtime barn burner last week will start to hurt the Cardinals. They played into OT last Sunday night and they will be playing another likely high scoring game on Saturday afternoon. That’s not a lot of recovery time. The Saints were off last week and they basically took week 17 off as well. This could come into play.

While everything is telling me that the Cardinals are going to knock off everyone’s darlings in New Orleans, I just can’t quite accept it. At some point they have got to play like a 10-6 or 9-7 team and not like a 14-2 team. I’m letting my dislike of the Cardinals affect me but then again it would make sense for the 13-3 home team to beat the 10 win team playing on the road on short rest. I think the spread is way too big. It should be more like 3.5. I don’t think there’s any way the Saints cover. I think it’s going to be another thriller like Arizona’s game was last week. But this time I think the breaks will go against Arizona. I like the Saints to win by a point or 2.



Saturday’s Night Game

Baltimore (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Ravens beat the spread
Comment: As I said before, I was going to pick the Jets to upset the Colts if both New York and New England won last week. But the Ravens trounced the Patriots at Gillette Stadium to earn a trip to the big Oil Drum, where it’s all about resting players and not about trying for eternal glory. I’m sure by now the fans will have moved on from that week 16 debacle against the Jets. Surely the players have as well. The place should be rocking when it gets under way, as the fans have really been waiting for weeks now to see the Colts try and win. But what if things don’t go well early on? These fans have seen the Colts lose in the playoffs more than once when they appeared to be the best team going in. In 2005 the Colts started 13-0 but they lost to the Chargers and then decided to take it easy in the final 2 games. They were 14-2 and 10 point favorites over the Steelers at home in the divisional round and they choked. In 2007 the Colts forfeited their final game, helping the Titans reach the playoffs, and they went into the postseason 13-3. They were 10 point favorites at home against the Chargers in the divisional round and they choked again, losing to a San Diego team that played most of the game without LT and Phillip Rivers. Last year the Colts won their final 9 games and they lost in the Wild Card round at San Diego, scoring just 17 points after averaging 30 a game during the final month. Even if you go back to 2003 and 2004, many people thought they were better than the Patriots but they got ousted from the playoffs by New England both years. If the Colts offense is off rhythm and Peyton gets flustered and things start going badly the crowd could turn on the team. I personally don’t think Manning handles the pressure well in the postseason. He’s just a little bit different when it’s win or go home. This year the Colts had better not lose before the Super Bowl or else that pathetic display against the Jets will become a major part of this team’s legacy.

While Indy has been off for a month now, the Ravens have been fighting for their lives the entire season. Last week they went into Foxboro and bullied the Patriots in their own backyard. The Ravens were 3.5 point dogs but they won 33-14. Baltimore is now 10-7 on the season (9-7-1 ATS) and 4-5 on the road (4-4-1 ATS). The Ravens have outscored opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game, but that number dwindles to just +1.6 on the road. Baltimore has won 4 of its last 5 but the Ravens are just 3-4-1 in their last 8 ATS. The Colts forfeited their last 2 games but before the Jets game they had won 14 in a row and they were 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games prior to the disgrace against New York. If the Colts can regain their pre-forfeit form they will be tough to beat. And yet, it’s not like Indy was that dominant this year, they just know how to win in the regular season at this point. The Colts outscored opponents by an average of 6.8 points per game this season. Somewhat surprisingly they were just +4.4 per game at home. Still, the Colts were 14-2 this season (10-5-1 ATS) and 7-1 at home (3-4-1 ATS).

Last week a lot of people were talking about how Andy Reid had never lost a first round playoff game and Tom Brady had never lost a home playoff game. Well, the Ravens haven’t beaten the Colts since Jim Mora was manning the sidelines in Indy. The Colts have won 7 straight over the Ravens since 2002, including the divisional playoff game in Baltimore in 2006. The Colts have covered in the last 6 meetings. This is the only matchup of the weekend that is a rematch from the regular season. In week 11, the Colts were 1 point favorites at Baltimore and they wound up pulling out a 17-15 win over the Ravens in what was a very strange game. An ill-advised lateral by Ed Reed during an interception return was key in helping the Colts win the game. Manning was intercepted twice in the game and both teams had over 350 yards of offense.

Baltimore has struggled to put it all together and be the team that many thought they would be after they started the season 3-0. The Ravens were impressive in their dismantling of the Patriots on the road last week but will they be able to come up with a second straight road upset? The key will be pressuring Manning, disrupting his timing and confusing him, and frustrating him. They will need to force some turnovers and make big plays on key downs. If the Ravens win the game it will be because of their defense, which appears to be rounding into form at the best possible time. Baltimore was 3rd in scoring defense; 3rd in total defense; 8th in pass defense; and 5th in rush defense this season. The Ravens don’t get a ton of sacks, finishing just tied for 18th in that department. But they know how to pressure the QB, as evidenced by their mauling of Tom Brady at times last week. You aren’t going to get all the way to Peyton Manning much anyway. The Colts rely almost completely on throwing the ball in order to move down the field and score points, yet they allowed only 13 sacks all season, best in the league. Indy makes no effort to run the ball, finishing 32nd in that department during the year, and they will not be able to run it all against Baltimore. It will be up to Peyton and his receivers to move the ball against Ray Lewis and the Raven D. The Colts were 7th in points and 9th in total offense this season but it was almost all Peyton, as the Colts were 2nd in the NFL in passing and dead last in rushing. That will work in the regular season but will it work against a very good defense in the playoffs?

Traditionally, Indy has been a bit soft against the run, and the Colts were 24th in rush defense this season. Indy is definitely a bend but don’t break defense as usual. They were 14th against the pass and 18th in total defense but they allowed the 8th fewest points in the NFL. Baltimore will have to take care of the ball to keep it away from Peyton and try and wear down the undersized Indy defense with a continuous running attack. That rushing attack will help slow down the bookend DE’s as well. And the Ravens must get in the end zone when they have the chance. They kicked 5 field goals in the week 11 matchup and it came back to bite them. The Ravens were actually a fairly good offensive team this season. They were 9th in points scored and 13th in total offense. They have the 5th best rushing attack in the league and that will be what they rely on in this game. Flacco can make plays if needed but he needs to be careful.

One thing that may come into play in this game is the fact that Indy is going with Matt Stover as kicker, with Adam Vinatieri on the shelf. Stover may have to hit a big kick against the team he spent most of his career with. Baltimore has had kicking problems as well. Billy Cunduff has been the guy lately and he’s missed quite a few, including some from relatively short distance. Indy is always susceptible to a key return. The problem is, Baltimore’s kick return specialist—Ladarius Webb—is on the shelf.

I expect this to be a close game, as Baltimore’s defense should be able to hold down Peyton and the offense to some extent and the Ravens should be able to run the ball successfully against Indy. In the end, however, I have to go with the Colts because of the home field advantage and because they have been so good at finding a way to win this season (at least, that is, when they’re trying to win). I think the Colts will win a very competitive and low scoring game by 4 or 5 points.

Sunday’s Early Game

Dallas (+2.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: Everybody loves the Cowboys. I have to admit: they are playing lights out right now. Minnesota faltered down the stretch and started to show some cracks. Brett Favre will have a lot of pressure on him but he should feel some relief that the nightmare situation of the Packers beating him in the playoffs is no longer a possibility. Which Favre will we see? Will he force the issue and make a bunch of mistakes or will he stay within the game plan the way he has for the entire season? I’m also curious to see what kind of a game Adrian Peterson has. Actually, Peterson might be more of a liability with the ball in his hands than Favre is these days. Peterson is flat out prone to fumbling and it is a legitimate problem. His fumbles can kill drives when the Vikings are rolling. And when you’re trying to salt away a victory and the other team is desperately trying to strip the ball, Peterson’s fumbles can give the opposition new life. Furthermore, Peterson has been much less of a factor in recent weeks. Part of it may be that the Vikings need to concentrate more on keeping him involved. But there’s no doubt that Minnesota’s run blocking has been lacking in recent weeks. There’s just not much there a lot of the time. If Dallas can shutdown AP it will all be up to Favre and in my opinion you don’t want that if you’re Minnesota. It’s almost easy to forget that Tony Romo has struggled with taking care of the ball throughout his career as well. For quite some time now, Romo has been avoiding costly turnovers and avoiding making other mistakes that could hurt his team. Romo needs to continue to do that as the Cowboys try to take the next step and reach an NFC Title game.

The Cowboys are now 12-5 (10-7 ATS) and 5-3 on the road (4-4 ATS). They have outscored an opponents by an average of 7.7 points per game. On the road, Dallas has outscored opponents by an average of 2.8 points per game. The Cowboys are of course red hot at the moment. The Boys have won 4 in a row and they are 6-2 over their last 8 games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 but just 5-4 ATS over their last 9 games. There’s no denying the fact that the Cowboys have been absolutely dominant during their current 4 game win streak. They held the Saints to 17 points and ended their perfect season in New Orleans in week 15. They ended the year throwing back to back shutouts against rivals Washington and Philadelphia. Last week the Cowboys went to Philly and spanked the Eagles for the 2nd week in a row, winning by 20. Over the last 3 games, the Cowboys have averaged 161.7 rushing yards per game, 431.0 total yards of offense per game, 45.3 yards rushing allowed per game, and just 4.7 points allowed per game.

The Vikings are 12-4 (9-6-1 ATS) and a perfect 8-0 at home (5-2-1 ATS). The Vikings have a +9.9 average scoring differential. At home the Vikings have crushed the opposition. Their average scoring margin in home games is +17.3. Minnesota ended the season just 2-3 in their final 5 games (2-3 ATS).

Once again, cashing in on scoring opportunities will be huge for the Cowboys in this game. Dallas was 2nd in total offense this season but just 14 in scoring offense. Turnovers, sacks, and ill-timed penalties are all things that Dallas must stay away from when they have chances to put the ball in the end zone or put points on the board with a FG. The Cowboys have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league, as they finished 6th in passing and 7th in rushing during the regular season. Minnesota’s offense has some balance as well but the Vikings were a surprisingly average rushing team this season. Minnesota was 8th in passing but just 13th in rushing. Never the less, the Vikings were the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and they ended up 5th in total offense.

The Dallas defense is peaking at the right time. The Cowboys have been so good on defense lately that it’s almost point less to look at the numbers for the entire year. Not that Dallas didn’t put up good numbers. The Cowboys were 2nd in scoring defense and 9th in total defense. They were the 4th stingiest defense against the run but during the regular season they were fairly average against the pass, finishing 20th in the league in that category. Lately the Cowboys have been putting consistent pressure on the QB and that has helped the pass defense. The Cowboys defense was 7th in the NFL this year with 42 sacks. Minnesota was the best at rushing the passer during the regular season, finishing 1st in the NFL with 48 sacks. Both offensive lines will have their hands full. Each team allowed 34 sacks this season, tied 15th in the league. If the Vikings are unable to get pressure on the QB they will probably be in more trouble than Dallas. While the Cowboys rely on pressure too, they still have some very solid defensive backs who can handle their business. Minnesota was 19th in pass defense this season and they are not anywhere near as healthy on defense as the Cowboys are. The Vikings will of course have the Williams boys up front and Jared Allen rushing relentlessly next to them. But the Dallas O-line has been control the last few weeks. Minnesota’s offensive line, on the other hand, has struggled at times down the stretch. I don’t think the Cowboys will be able to run consistently against the Vikings, who finished 2nd in the league against the run. Minnesota ranked 6th in total defense and 10th in scoring defense during the season. This game may end up in the hands of both quarterbacks. I don’t know who I’d rather have in that situation: Romo or Favre?

Twice during the Cowboys’ 4 game win streak they have gone into tough environments and beaten good teams. They will have to do it a 3rd time this Sunday. I think the Cowboys will be okay playing in Minnesota but it will be loud in the Metrodome, you can be sure of that. I also think the Vikings are clearly a more special team when they are playing at home. But teams have gone to the Metrodome and won in the playoffs several times, including just last year when the Eagles beat the Vikes at home in the WC round.

It’s really hard to pick against the Cowboys right now. They truly appear to be peaking right now, while the Vikings appeared to pick over a month ago. However, I think the Vikings are going to show up and play well and I think they’ll get help from their crowd. This should be a very tight game and I expect it to come down to the very end. I like the Vikings to win by a field goal.



Sunday’s Late Day Game

New York Jets (+9) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Jets beat the spread
Comment: This matchup features the biggest spread of the weekend but even in this game there is not a double digit favorite. Last week the Jets went to Cincinnati and whipped the Bengals on their own field, beating them for the 2nd straight week. The Jets are playing with a ton of confidence and nothing to lose. San Diego has been perhaps the hottest team in football for the last 3 months. Once again the Chargers head into the playoffs looking like they might be the most dangerous team out there. I think the Jets are dangerous too because they know what they’re good at. They run the ball and pressure the quarterback. If they can do that against the Chargers this will be a game for sure and the Jets might even have a chance to pull off a shocker late. Having said that, if the Chargers play their absolute best I don’t think they will lose again this season.

The Jets are now 10-7 on the year (10-7 ATS) and an impressive 6-3 on the road (6-3 ATS). The Jets allow only 14.7 points a game and that takes a lot of pressure off of the offense and the rookie QB in particular. New York has had an average scoring differential of +7.2. That average margin actually improves to +8.4 for the Jets in road games. San Diego is 13-3 (8-7-1 ATS) and 6-2 at home (3-4-1 ATS). The Chargers have outscored opponents by an average of 8.4 points per game. Somewhat surprisingly, that number falls to +5.6 in home games. Both of these teams are rolling at this point. The Jets have now won 6 of their last 7 games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. San Diego has won 11 straight games and the Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS over their last 9 games.

San Diego has looked like the best team in the league towards the end of the season but the Chargers numbers don’t blow you away. They are 4th in scoring offense and 10th in total offense, but like Indianapolis, the Chargers entire offense is driven by the passing game. The Chargers are 31st in the NFL in rushing. The 5th ranked passing offense is what makes the San Diego offense go. Defensively, the Chargers finished 11th in scoring defense and just 16th in total defense. They were 11th in the league against the pass and 20th against the run. It will be interesting to see if the Chargers make an attempt to shutdown the New York running game and make Mark Sanchez beat them with his arm. I’m not sure the Chargers will be able to completely stop the New York ground game but they might be able to slow it down. The Jets offense is sort of a mirror image of San Diego’s offense. The Jets finished 1st in the NFL in rushing and 31st in passing. I don’t think the Jets will be able to completely hide Sanchez and he actually made some good plays last week. The Chargers defense recorded 35 sacks this season, tied for 13th in the league. The Jets tried not to throw it much and their offensive line did a decent job protecting Sanchez when they had to throw it. New York was tied for 10th with just 30 sacks allowed this season. Sanchez should have decent time and some opportunities when the Chargers commit to stopping the running game.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers will not have an easy time matching their 28 point average against New York’s defense. The Jets finished 1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense, and 8th in run defense. Last week the Bengals had some success running the ball against the Jets but they could do nothing through the air. I think the Jets will be able to limit the San Diego rushing game to a large extent. However, I do think the Chargers will be able to throw the ball with some success in this game, even against the top passing defense in the game right now. New York’s shutdown corner can take one of the big San Diego receivers out of the game but who is going to man up with Antonio Gates? They will still get passes to backs out of the backfield and Rivers will still be able to move the ball even in the face of all of that blitzing. You know, even though the Jets blitz more than any other team, they only notched 32 sacks this season, tied for 18th in the NFL. San Diego’s offensive line, which has been criticized over the years, allowed only 26 sacks this season, tied for 6th best.

In a close game the Chargers would have several major advantages. Obviously they are the home team and the Jets are having to fly out to California and play them on their grass field. More importantly, the Chargers have a gigantic edge at the QB position in every conceivable way. We all know how important that is. Finally, the Chargers have a decided edge in special teams. They have a great kicker, a super punter, and fantastic return man. So if the game is closer than the spread indicates, the Chargers would still be in good shape. I think the game will remain fairly low scoring and that will keep the Jets in the game. I just don’t see the Jets getting blown out by anybody right now. However, I expect the Chargers to put the game away in the end and win by 6 or 7 points.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

The College Football Blog: 2009 Final Season Résumé Rankings

Final Season Résumé Rankings

1. Alabama 14-0 (1st)
2. Boise State 14-0 (6th)
3. Texas 13-1 (2nd)
4. Florida 13-1 (5th)
5. Cincinnati 12-1 (3rd)
6. TCU 12-1 (4th)
7. Iowa 11-2 (8th)
8. Ohio State 11-2 (10th)
9. Penn State 11-2 (NR)
10. Oregon 10-3 (7th)

Comments: So these are my final season résumé rankings for the 2009 season. With the year now complete, this list ranks the teams that had the best seasons in 2009. I had a very hard time doing these final rankings. For one of the only times all season I think it was harder to fill out these rankings than it was to create the power rankings. When so many teams have either identical or very similar win-loss records it’s just hard to sort out. It’s even harder to do something like this at the end of the year because so much time goes by between the last regular season game and the final bowl game. It was easy to pick a #1 team, as Alabama had by far the most impressive season. They were 1 of only 2 teams to finish the season undefeated and they did it playing in the toughest conference in the country. Just their last two games alone were impressive enough. In my opinion, Texas and Florida are the best two teams other than Alabama, and the Tide smoked them both on neutral fields to end the year. They also beat a Virginia Tech team that won the Chick-fil-a Bowl on a neutral field by 10 points. They beat a Mississippi team that won the Cotton Bowl on the road by 19. And they beat an LSU team that played in the Capital One Bowl by 9 on the road. No one else has 5 wins that are that good. Bama played 10 games against bowl teams--all from major conferences—and won all 10 of them. 6 of those 10 games were either on the road or at a neutral site. And Bama won 8 of those 10 games by at least 9 points. The Tide won each of their 4 games against non-bowl teams by at least 26 points. Bama had the most impressive résumé and it wasn’t even close.

The hardest team for me to rank was Boise State. The Broncos were ranked 6th in this list going into bowl season and I think you could make an argument for keeping them there even after they beat TCU to finish as the only undefeated team other than Alabama. It’s absolutely accurate to say that a team from a weak conference is going to get penalized in rankings like these. The competition in the WAC is nowhere near the level of competition in the SEC and the Big XII. It’s not as good as the competition in the Big East. And you know what else? It’s not as good as the competition in the Mountain West. Boise State ended up winning 6 games against bowl teams but only 1 of those teams was from a major conference. 3 of the bowl teams they beat were from the WAC and another was from the MAC. However, they beat two teams that went to BCS Bowls, allowing a total of 18 points to two of the best offensive teams in the country, TCU and Oregon. They have no losses and they have 2 great wins but the majority of their games came against mediocre or worse competition. It was just very difficult to determine how much value to place in the fact that they had zero losses while Texas, Cincinnati, TCU, and Texas each had 1 loss. In the end, my problem was that if I ranked 1 of the 1-loss teams ahead of them it seemed like I should rank all of the 1-loss teams ahead of them. That would mean keeping them in the exact same spot as they were before they won a BCS game against an undefeated team. It would mean ranking them behind a TCU team that they beat, who is also not from a major conference. It would mean keeping them 6th even though they won a game and 3 of the other undefeated teams lost a game. I wasn’t totally satisfied with either option. In the end, I was more comfortable going with the option of focusing on their perfect record more than their weak schedule, so I moved Boise State up 4 spots from #6 to #2 in the final rankings. Again, after the #1 team it was hard to separate the rest.

After ranking the top 2 teams, I had to rank the 4 teams that finished the season with only 1 loss: Cincinnati, Texas, TCU, and Florida. TCU could quickly be placed at the back of the pack because of their schedule. I dropped them 2 spots from 4th to 6th. They did beat 6 bowl teams but 5 of those teams were from non-BCS conferences. Florida beat 9 bowl teams, 8 from major conferences. Cincinnati beat 6 bowl teams from major conferences, including 4 on the road. Texas beat 8 bowl teams from major conferences. When you go back and look at, Texas really didn’t have a super win. They had a 3 point win over Oklahoma on a neutral field and a 1 point win over Nebraska on a neutral field. Florida won at LSU and crushed Cincinnati. Both Cincinnati won at Oregon State and at Pitt. At this point I was grasping for straws and decided to rank Cincinnati behind Texas and Florida because those two teams lost to the beat team in the country. So Cincinnati fell 2 spots in my final rankings from 3rd to 5th. It was tough to pick between the Longhorns and Gators for 3rd. Eventually I went with Texas because they were slightly more competitive against Alabama despite not having their QB for almost the entire game. Texas dropped 1 spot in my final rankings from 2nd to 3rd, while the Gators climbed 1 spot from 5th to 4th. I was totally unsatisfied with things after I finally had the top 6 ranked but I determined that no matter what I tried to do I would be conflicted.

The next step in the process was much easier. With Georgia Tech and Oregon losing in the bowls there were only 5 teams that finished with just 2 losses. BYU and Central Michigan were not in the mix because of their schedules so it was really only 3 teams and they were easy to rank. I already had Iowa, Ohio State, and Penn State ranked before the bowls and they each won games over very good teams so I just kept them in the same order. I moved Iowa up a spot from 8th to 7th in my final rankings. Ohio State moved up 2 spots from 10th to 8th. Penn State climbed back into the rankings to finish 9th in the final edition of the season résumé rankings.

I thought it was going to be difficult to find a final team to fill out the top 10 but it wasn’t. Oregon was my highest ranked 2-loss team going into the bowls and they lost to a great team in the Rose Bowl for their 3rd loss. Nothing that the other 3 loss teams did in their bowl games was enough to leap from the Ducks. Oregon stayed in the rankings but did drop 3 spots to finish at #10.


Season Résumé Rankings Notes: You would expect these rankings to stay fairly uniform late, as to have a great record at the end you would have to have a good record all season. But when I went back and reviewed these rankings I was surprised that more teams did not fall out during the second half of the year. I guess I shouldn’t have been that surprised, considering that 5 teams went into the bowl season undefeated and another team suffered its first loss in the conference championship game. I was also expecting to find that the first few rankings would look crazy compared to the end of the year, but actually 4 of the 10 teams in the first edition of the résumé rankings were also in the final edition. Of course there was no preseason edition of the résumé rankings and that made the first edition of the rankings less wacky. 4 teams were ranked in all 15 sets of résumé rankings: Alabama, Florida, Cincinnati, and Boise State. Only 2 teams were ranked #1 in the résumé rankings at any point this season: Florida and Alabama. Alabama finished #1 in the final rankings and they were near the top over the entire season. Bama never lower than 2nd in the rankings at any point. Alabama was 2nd in the first 4 rankings and 1st for the final 11 weeks. Florida was #1 in the original rankings and they remained ranked throughout the season. The Gators were 1st in the first 4 editions of the rankings but they dropped to 5th in week 5. They would never regain the top spot, ranking 3rd for 7 straight weeks from week 7 through week 13. They were #5 again in the final rankings before the bowls and they finished 4th in the final rankings of the season. The Gators were in the top 5 throughout the year. Boise State was 7th in the original set of rankings and they would remain in the rankings throughout the season. The Broncos climbed to 5th in week 2 and they never dropped below 6th the rest of the way. However, Boise State was never higher than 4th until the final rankings when they ended the season ranked 2nd. Cincinnati was 9th in the original rankings and they remained ranked throughout the season. They climbed to 7th in week 2 and they would never drop below 7th the rest of the way. They were 5th or better in the final 5 editions, getting as high as 3rd in the final rankings before the bowls. They ended the year ranked 5th. Texas was the only team in the top 5 in the final rankings that was not ranked in the first set of résumé rankings following week 1. The Longhorns were included in 14 of the 15 editions. Texas debuted in week 2 at #10 and they would remain ranked the rest of the way. Texas was in the top 4 in the final 9 sets of rankings and they were ranked 2nd for 6 straight weeks from week 9 through week 14. They finished the season ranked 3rd. TCU debuted in the rankings at #10 in week 5 and they were ranked in the final 11 weeks. The Horned Frogs were ranked 5th or higher for 9 straight weeks from week 6 to week 14. They were ranked 4th in 5 straight weeks from week 10 to week 14. They finished 6th in the final rankings, dropping below 5th for the first time since they first appeared in the rankings at #10 in week 5. The teams ranked in the top 6 in the final rankings (Alabama, Boise State, Texas, Florida, Cincinnati, and TCU) were each ranked in the final 11 sets of rankings and they were all in the top 7 of the final 10 sets of rankings. The teams ranked in the top 6 were the same for the final 6 sets of rankings.

The only team ranked in the top 7 of the final rankings that fell out of the rankings at some point during the year was Iowa. The Hawkeyes were ranked in 11 of the 15 sets of rankings. They debuted at 8th in week 4 and remained in the rankings for 7 straight weeks. They rose as high as #2, holding that spot in weeks 7 and 8. They fell out of the rankings in week 11 but they got back in at #10 in week 12 and they remained in the rankings for the final 4 editions. Iowa finished the season ranked 7th. Oregon was in the rankings for 8 of 15 editions, debuting at #10 in week 8 and staying in the rankings for the final 8 sets. They were ranked 7th in weeks 13 and 14 but they never got any higher and they finished the season ranked 10th.

2 Big Ten teams that did not spend a lot of time in the rankings ended up the year in the top 10. Ohio State didn’t appear in the rankings until week 13 when they made it as the #9 team. The Buckeyes were included in the final 3 sets of rankings and they ended the season ranked 8th, their highest ranking of the year. Penn State was the only team to fall out of the rankings early on and reappear in the final set of rankings. The Nittany Lions debuted at 10th in week 3 and did not appear again until the final edition of the résumé rankings, ending the year ranked 9th.

Georgia Tech spent the most weeks in the rankings of any team not included in the final edition of the résumé rankings, appearing in 8 of the 15 sets of rankings. Tech debuted in the rankings in week 7 as the #10 team. They would remain in the rankings for the next 8 weeks, never getting higher than 7th, and finishing the year out of the rankings. LSU was the only team to fall out of the rankings twice and get back into the résumé rankings a 3rd time. The Tigers were included in 5 of 15 sets of rankings. They debuted in week 3 at #7 and eventually climbed to 2nd in the week 5 rankings before falling back out of the rankings the following week. They got back into the rankings in week 9 at #10, fell out a week later, and then reappeared in the #10 spot a week later. They fell out of the rankings for good a week later.

USC was ranked in 4 of 15 editions. They were ranked 5th in the original résumé rankings and reached 4th in week 2 before falling out of the rankings a week later. They reappeared as the #8 team in week 7 but never got any higher and they were missing from the final 7 sets of rankings. Auburn was included in 3 sets of rankings. They debuted at #8 in week 3 and reached the #3 spot in week 5 before falling out of the rankings for good a week later. Cal was also included in 3 sets of rankings. They were 8th in the original résumé rankings and climbed to 5th in week 3 before falling out of the rankings for good the next week. Michigan was another team that made 3 sets of résumé rankings. The Wolverines debuted at 8th in week 2 but they never got any higher and they were gone for good by week 5.

Several teams spent 2 weeks in the résumé rankings. BYU was 4th in the original résumé rankings and rose to 3rd in week 2 before falling out for good a week later. Pitt had perhaps the most pedestrian existence of any team that made the résumé rankings during the year. They debuted at 8th in week 11, remained there for another week, and then fell out for good in week 13. Houston’s history in the résumé rankings was rather unique. They debuted at #9 in week 2 and then did not appear in the rankings again until week 10 when they were again ranked 9th. They fell out again a week later and never reappeared. Kansas was ranked 10th in week 4 and week 6 but was not included in any other edition of the résumé rankings. South Florida was ranked 7th in week 5 and 8th in week 6 but did not make the rankings any other week. Miami was the #10 team in the original résumé rankings but did not appear again until week 7 when they got back in at #9. They would not show up in the rankings again the rest of the year.

3 teams spent 1 week in the rankings. Somewhat surprisingly, Virginia Tech did not make the résumé rankings until week 6 when they debuted at #9. They fell out of the rankings the next week and were not heard from again. Finally, there were 2 teams in the original résumé rankings that fell out of the rankings the next week and were never ranked again. Oklahoma State was ranked 3rd in the first set of rankings but fell out the next week and was gone for good. Mississippi was 6th in week 1 but they were out by week 2 and gone for good.

The College Football Blog: 2009 Final Power Rankings

Final Power Rankings

1. Alabama 14-0 (1st)
2. Florida 13-1 (2nd)
3. Texas 13-1 (4th)
4. Boise State 14-0 (7th)
5. TCU 12-1 (3rd)
6. Iowa 11-2 (11th)
7. Ohio State 11-2 (10th)
8. Cincinnati 12-1 (6th)
9. Oregon 10-3 (5th)
10. Penn State 11-2 (14th)
11. Georgia Tech 11-3 (9th)
12. Nebraska 10-4 (NR)
13. Pittsburgh 10-3 (15th)
14. Virginia Tech 10-3 (NR)
15. LSU 9-4 (8th)

Out: Stanford (12th); Oregon State (13th).

Comments: These are my final power rankings for the season. Last year for my final rankings I ranked all 68 bowl teams as if they were going to play in a tournament. I honestly don’t think I could do that this year and have any conviction behind my rankings. I decided that my final rankings would look the same as the power rankings have all season. Like always I considered which teams I would favor in a head to head matchup on a neutral field. I assumed that all non-season ending injuries were healed. All of the various factors that affect bowl games--injuries, suspensions, eligibility problems, coaching changes, players declaring for the draft, travel, motivation, location, time off between games, etc.—are taken out of the picture.

As much as I tried to keep the bowl game results in perspective it was difficult not to be greatly influenced by them. This was a problem, as we all know that bowl games are different. Almost every bowl game—including those played by the top teams--contained “extenuating circumstances.” There are questions you have to ask about each game. How was the National Championship Game affected by Colt McCoy’s injury? How was Cincinnati affected by their coach’s desertion and the fact that they weren’t playing for the NC? How did the long layoff affect TCU? How did the long layoff affect Georgia Tech’s offense? How did the field affect the game between Penn State and LSU? How did the injury to Stanford’s QB affect their game with Oklahoma? It goes on, and on, and on.

With all that said, I feel pretty good about my final top 15. Bama was my #1 team going into the bowls and they are #1 in my final rankings, as they finished off a 14-0 season with a 16 point win over Texas in the BCS Title Game. In my mind there is no doubt that Alabama was the best team in the country this season. I was worried about the Tide going into the game with Texas because of the motivation/focus/energy factor. They had won the biggest game of their life in the SEC Championship and had to spend a month being told how good they were. Their best offensive player had won the Heisman Trophy. They had brought Alabama back to the top of the mountain. They were legends. Now they had to snap back to reality after a month off and be ready to play their best game of the year against an opponent that had spent the last month at the other end of the spectrum. Texas had eked by Nebraska in the Big XII Championship and they were being told that they didn’t deserve to be in this game. They felt they had to prove themselves and they felt they had nothing to lose. Alabama was in a tough situation. We will never know how things might have turned out if McCoy had never gotten hurt. While I think there’s a chance that Texas could have had success moving the ball against Bama and played defense at the same level that they actually did, I don’t think you can look at what happened and say “Well, they were within 3 points late in the 4th quarter without McCoy so think what the score would have been if he hadn’t gotten hurt!” The entire game would have been played differently. Once Alabama got a lead they basically played as safe as possible on both sides of the ball. Offensively, they were willing to let Texas shut them down completely, believing that their defense would be able to do the same to Texas. Eventually, the young Longhorns QB got comfortable and Alabama didn’t change their approach quickly enough. The Tide finally adjusted, took the game back over, and put the game away. But we will never know how things would have developed with McCoy in the game. I would say that the affects of the long layoff could be seen in the National Championship Game. Early on Alabama made mistakes on special teams that it’s hard to see them making if they aren’t playing for the first time in a month. Regardless, Alabama was clearly the top team in college football in 2009.

Florida was my #2 team going into the bowl season and the Gators stayed 2nd in my final rankings, as they rebounded from their only loss of the season with an absolute route of previously unbeaten Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl. The Gators won 51-23 and it wasn’t that close. Some people might feel that Texas or Boise State should be ahead of Florida but I disagree. Texas certainly caught a bad break when the unquestioned MVP of the team got knocked out the action early in their game with Bama. Their defense was super and the Longhorns showed a lot by getting back into the game. But if Texas and Florida were playing a game for all the marbles on a neutral field I would still have to favor Tim Tebow and the Gators. I can’t really explain it other than to say that I think the only team who would have beaten the Gators in a big game is Alabama. Never the less, I did move Texas up a spot in my final rankings from 4th to 3rd. As for Boise State, while I was surprised and impressed by their 17-10 win over TCU in the Fiesta Bowl that gave them a 14-0 record, I still wouldn’t favor them in a game against Florida or Texas. The talent level for Florida and Texas is just different. But Boise State was a top notch team on both sides of the ball and they proved it by beating TCU. I moved Boise State up 3 spots in my final rankings from 7th to 4th.

TCU did not play up to expectations in the Fiesta Bowl, as the Horned Frogs suffered their first loss of the season against Boise State. But I don’t think you can look at their performance against Boise State and make a broad judgment about the rest of their season. There’s just no question that the time off between games had an adverse affect on their offense. And I also think the motivation/focus/energy thing applies here. Some might have trouble buying that and I agree that it wasn’t a major factor. But I do think that Boise State came into the game with an edge in this area. TCU was going for an undefeated season and looking to provide further evidence that they were as good as the top teams from the big conferences. But Boise State was not getting anywhere near the amount of love that TCU was getting. Furthermore, TCU had just beaten the Broncos in a bowl game the year before, so they didn’t have the revenge/redemption angle to use. In any event, TCU was still an excellent team, and I decided to drop them just 2 spots in my final rankings from 3rd to 5th.

The other team that did not live up to expectations in their bowl game was Cincinnati, who got totally outclassed by Florida in the Sugar Bowl, 51-23. But you have to consider the enormous impact that Brian Kelly’s decision to leave for Notre Dame had on the team. This hurt the Bearcats in a number of ways. First off, the team felt hurt, abandoned, and disillusioned by their head coach who had been their lord and leader for the past few years. There’s no way to overstate the affect that had on the attitude and focus of the players, the fans, and the entire program. Then you get to the totally tangible affects Kelly’s departure had. The team went the entire month of preparation with no head coach. That had to affect not only the structure of practice but also the strategic game plan. And it’s not like the players were out there trying to prove themselves to an assistant coach who would be taking over for Kelly. The players knew that their next head coach would be coming in from the outside, so they weren’t playing for anybody on that sideline. And the assistant coaches, who were in charge of the practices, the game plan, and the in-game coaching decisions, knew that their future lay elsewhere. And think how much better the game plan and the in-game strategy would have been if Kelly were still there. To top it all off, the team had finished a dream season 12-0 and their prize was to play a game with no affect on the National Championship that there coach didn’t even consider important enough to stick around for. There’s no denying the fact that Cincinnati did not play well in the game and the Bearcats were not on the same level defensively as the other elite teams. But when things started to go against Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl the Bearcats were not able to find the heart to keep fighting. It was sad to see. But I still think they were a great team when they had a purpose and a very good head coach leading them. Thus, I only dropped Cincinnati 2 spots in my final rankings from 6th to 8th.

The team that made the biggest climb in my final rankings was Iowa. The Hawkeyes stifled Georgia Tech’s offense in the Orange Bowl and out-muscled the Jackets for a 24-14 victory. Iowa finished the season 11-2 and the Hawkeyes were undefeated in games that their QB Ricky Stanzi started and finished. I was a believer in Iowa for much of the season and if Stanzi had not gotten hurt against Northwestern I believe they would have finished the year undefeated. They benefited from the long layoff, as Stanzi got healthy and they were able to game plan against Tech’s option offense. But Iowa showed everyone that they were for real in the Orange Bowl. I moved Iowa up 5 spots in my final rankings from 11th to 6th.

Ohio State also made a significant rise in my rankings. The Buckeyes played perhaps their best game of the year in the Rose Bowl against Oregon. Despite the long layoff, Ohio State won decisively, effectively shutting down the Ducks’ high powered offense and showing more offensively than most people thought they had. Terrell Pryor played far better than I had ever seen. He was accurate, he did not make mistakes, and he used his athletic ability to pick up first downs and keep the chains moving. The Buckeyes were one of the more impressive teams during the bowl season, as they finished the year 11-2. I moved Ohio State up 3 spots in my final rankings from 10th to 7th.

Penn State was yet another Big Ten team that made a major move in my final rankings. Penn State had been a dominant team throughout the season, except for in their only two really big games. They had been beaten soundly at home by both Iowa and Ohio State. In the Capital One Bowl they finally showed up for a big game and beat a good team. While I do believe that the atrocious field conditions had a major impact on the game, the Nittany Lions none the less were in control for most of the day against LSU, and made the plays in the end to win it 19-17. The victory did a lot in my mind to prove that Penn State was a team that could compete against elite competition and not just run over lesser teams. With the win, the Nittany Lions finished the year 11-2. I moved Penn State up 4 spots in my final rankings from 14th to 10th.

One team taking a sizeable fall in my final rankings was Oregon, who lost 26-17 to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl to finish 10-3. I do believe that Ohio State was the more focused and energized team in this game. Oregon appeared to be caught off guard when Ohio State took it to them. It’s actually quite understandable that the Ducks would be less desperate to win this game than Ohio State. For the Buckeyes, this game presented a chance to prove that they could win a big game. They were able to dispel all the beliefs that they could not win against more athletic teams. Not only were the Buckeyes underdogs, they had years and years of criticism and heart break to use as motivation. Just getting to this game did nothing for Ohio State. Winning the game could complete change the perception of the program. They had tons at stake. The Ducks, on the other hand, had already exceeded all expectations and just getting to the Rose Bowl was the big deal. Whether they won or lost the game, they would still have had a story book season. Still, I think we did see some of the tangible weaknesses of this Oregon team in the game. While turnovers definitely hurt the Ducks, the game was there to be taken and Ohio State just put them away. When a more physical team lined up and tried to over power them they were vulnerable. And if they couldn’t rely on the running game and had to put it all on Jeremiah Masoli to throw it they were in real trouble. The Ducks were a great team in 2009 but not on the level of the very best teams. Oregon stayed in my top 10 but I dropped them down 4 spots in my final rankings from 5th to 9th.

The only team that dropped out of my top 10 in the final rankings was Georgia Tech. There was a point in the season when I felt that Tech’s offense could not be stopped as long as they did not turn the ball over. I thought their offense was good enough to overcome the shortcomings of the defense, even against tough competition. But in two of their final three games, the Tech offense was contained, and they were unable to win. Tech lost to Iowa in the Orange Bowl, 24-14, to finish the season 11-3. I will say that I don’t believe any team as affected by a long layoff as Georgia Tech. There’s just no way that the offense can stay in rhythm over that many days without playing in a real game. In addition, the opposition has a much better chance of handling the Tech option attack if they have a month to prepare for it. And when there are no other games on the schedule, a team can truly focus just on stopping that offense without worrying about anything else. Having said that, Tech got whipped by Iowa, and by the end of the year it was clear that Tech had no answer if they weren’t getting both big and medium sized plays out of their running game. It was also clear that the defense was a bit soft. I dropped Tech 2 spots in my final rankings from 9th to 11th.

Pittsburgh could not have been very psyched to be playing in the Meinke Car Care Bowl, considering that they had been just a play away from winning the Big East and going to a BCS Bowl. They had lost their last 2 games in gut wrenching fashion but the Panthers managed to show up and win another close game, edging UNC 19-17 to finish 10-3. I give Pitt a lot of credit for getting up for the game and ending the year on a positive note. Pittsburgh moved up 2 spots in my final rankings from 15th to 13th.

The team taking the biggest drop in my final rankings was LSU. Obviously, the Tigers were hindered by all of the injuries to their running backs. And the terrible condition of the field was a big factor in the way their game against Penn State was played. Still, the Tigers had to fight hard just to get back into the game and they were somewhat fortunate to have a shot in the end. They still do not have a fully competent quarterback and the defense is just not playing at the same level as it was a few years ago. On top of that, Les Miles’ limitations as an in-game coach are becoming harder and harder to ignore. The Tigers ended dropping 7 spots in my final rankings from 8th all the way to 15th. And they were my #15 team almost by default. I would still give them a chance against almost anybody and they rarely get blown out. But they were not one of the elite teams in the country this season.

Two teams fell out of my top 15 in the final rankings. Stanford came into the bowl season ranked 12th in my top 15 but I dropped them out of my rankings after they lost in the Sun Bowl to Oklahoma to finish the year 8-5. The Cardinal actually stayed in the game until the very end, eventually falling 31-27. In reality, however, Stanford was dominated by the Sooners. While there is no telling how much better Stanford might have been had QB Andrew Luck been able to play, I still don’t think they would have beaten Oklahoma. Stanford was a quality team but they were very reliant on their power ground game. If Toby Gerhart was slowed down they could be handled. And their defense was average. Looking back, much of Stanford’s success came in wild, high-scoring affairs during conference play, in a Pac-10 that was light on defense. The Pac-10 teams got exposed a bit in the bowl games. Another Pac-10 team, Oregon State, was ranked 13th going into the bowl season but I dropped them out of the top 15 as well after they were absolutely dominated by BYU. The Beavers may have still been hurting from losing the Civil War to Oregon and missing out on a trip to the Rose Bowl. And they may have underestimated BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl. But you can’t get hammered 44-20 by BYU. Oregon State finished 8-5 and out of my rankings.

The teams replacing Stanford and Oregon State in my final rankings were Nebraska and Virginia Tech. Both of these teams had been ranked in my top 15 earlier in the season but had fallen out. Nebraska finished the season playing the way I thought they could early in the year. The Cornhuskers rebounded from the heartbreaking defeat to Texas in the Big XII Championship Game by coming up with perhaps the most dominating performance I have ever seen in a bowl game. Nebraska destroyed Arizona in the Holiday Bowl, 33-0, dominating the game in all phases to finish the season 10-4. Nebraska jumped into my final rankings at #12. Virginia Tech pulled together after a rough stretch in October and finished the year strong, winning their last 5 games in impressive fashion, including their 37-14 beat down of Tennessee in the Chick-fil-a Bowl. While the game really turned on a handful of plays, the Hokies ended up taking the game over. The defense kept Tennessee’s offense under wraps and they played the best game offensively that I had seen them play this season. Virginia Tech finished the season at #14 in my power rankings.

Power Rankings Season Notes: There were 16 sets of power rankings this year (the preseason power rankings, 14 weeks of power rankings during the regular season, and the final power rankings) with each edition ranking the top 15 teams. 30 different teams were ranked in my top 15 at least once. My rankings did not change that drastically from week to week in terms of teams falling in and out of the top 15, but the rankings were never exactly the same two weeks in a row. In fact, all 16 sets of power rankings were unique. There were only 2 weeks when all of the teams in the previous week’s rankings remained in the top 15 (week 8 and week 14). There were 7 weeks in which only 1 team fell out of the top 15 (1, 5, 6, 7, 10, 12, and 13). There were 3 weeks when 2 teams fell out of the rankings (2, 9, and final) and 3 weeks when 3 teams fell out of the rankings (3, 4, and 11). Of the 15 teams in my preseason power rankings, 8 were ranked in my final set. Another way of saying that is that there were 7 teams in my final top 15 who were not in my preseason power rankings.

There were 5 teams who made it into all 16 sets of power rankings, from preseason through the final rankings (Alabama, Florida, Texas, Ohio State, and LSU). Boise State was ranked in 14 sets; Cincinnati was ranked in 13 sets; Oklahoma and TCU were each ranked in 12 sets; Oregon and USC were both ranked in 11 sets; Penn State and Georgia Tech were both ranked in 10 sets; and Iowa and Virginia Tech were both ranked in 9 sets. In total, 15 teams were included in over half of the 16 editions of power rankings. No other teams were ranked in more than 6 sets but there were 12 other teams that made it into more than 1 set of rankings. Miami was ranked in 6 sets of power rankings; Nebraska, Pittsburgh, and Cal were all ranked in 5 sets; Mississippi, Oklahoma State, Michigan, and Stanford were all ranked in 4 sets; BYU was ranked in 3 sets; and Notre Dame, Auburn, and Oregon State were all ranked in 2 sets of power rankings. 3 teams were ranked in just 1 edition of power rankings: Georgia, Tennessee, and Arizona.

While many teams made it into the top 15 at one time or another, only 2 teams were ever ranked #1 in my power rankings this year: Florida and Alabama. Florida held the top spot the most, ranking 1st in 12 of 16 sets of rankings. Alabama was 1st in 4 of 16 sets of rankings. There were just 4 different teams ranked 2nd in any of my sets of power rankings this year: Alabama (6 weeks); Texas (5); Florida (4); and Oklahoma (1). 5 different teams were ranked 3rd at one point: Texas (10 weeks); USC (2); Alabama (2); Oklahoma (1); and TCU (1).
Slots #4 through #15 were all much less exclusive than the top 3 spots. 8 different teams were ranked 4th at one point (most: USC, 4 weeks); 7 were ranked 5th (Oklahoma, 4 weeks); 10 were ranked 6th (LSU, 4 weeks); 8 were ranked 7th (Boise State, 5 weeks); 9 were ranked 8th (LSU and Ohio State, 3 weeks each); 10 were ranked 9th (Cincinnati, 5 weeks); 10 were ranked 10th (Ohio State, 4 weeks); and 8 were ranked 11th at one point (Boise State and Iowa, 4 weeks each). The most varied spot in the top 15 was unlucky 13th. A total of 13 different teams were ranked 13th in at least one of the 16 sets of power rankings. TCU was ranked 13th most often, holding that spot in 3 sets of rankings. 11 teams were ranked 14th at one point (most: Ohio State and Virginia Tech, 3 weeks each). 12 teams were ranked 15th at one point and the #15 spot was the only position in the rankings that no team held for more than 2 weeks (Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, and Pittsburgh, 2 weeks each).

Here’s a rundown of the 30 teams that made into my power rankings during 2009, listed by number of weeks ranked:

Alabama: The Tide was ranked in 16 of 16 sets of power rankings: 6th (1 week), 5th (2), 4th (1), 3rd (2), 2nd (6), 1st (4). They debuted at #6 in the preseason rankings and that would be their lowest rank of the season. Bama moved up to 5th in weeks 1 and 2. They got to 4th in week 3 and then moved up to 3rd in weeks 4 and 5. They were then the #2 team for 5 straight weeks from week 6 through week 10. Finally in week 11 they reached the #1 spot for the first time. They were 1st again in week 12 before dropping back down to 2nd again in week 13. But the Tide was back at #1 in week 14 and they finished as the #1 team in the final rankings. Alabama was in the top 6 from preseason through the final rankings. They were ranked in the top 5 from week 1 through the final rankings and ranked in the top 4 in the final 13 sets of rankings. Bama was ranked in the top 3 in the final 12 sets and they were ranked in the top 2 in the final 10 sets.

Florida: The Gators were ranked in 16 of 16 sets: 2nd (4), 1st (12). They debuted at #1 in the preseason rankings and they would never drop below 2nd in the rankings at any point. The Gators were ranked #1 in the first 11 sets of rankings. Finally in week 11 they dropped to 2nd in the rankings and they were 2nd again in week 12, before regaining the top spot in week 13. The Gators fell back down to 2nd in week 14 and they finished as the #2 team in the final rankings. Florida was in the top 2 from the preseason through the final rankings. They spent more weeks ranked #1 than any other team this season.

Texas: The Longhorns were ranked in 16 of 16 sets: 4th (1), 3rd (10), 2nd (5). They debuted at #3 in the preseason rankings and they were never ranked lower than 4th at any point. Texas moved to the #2 spot in week 1 and that would be their highest ranking of the season. They would remain there for 5 straight weeks before dropping to 3rd in week 6. The Longhorns would be ranked 3rd for 8 straight weeks, from week 6 through week 13. Finally, in week 14 they dropped to 4th but they finished up as the #3 team in the final rankings. Texas was in the top 4 from the preseason through the final rankings. The Longhorns were ranked in the top 3 in 15 of 16 sets of power rankings.

Ohio State: The Buckeyes were ranked in 16 of 16 sets: 15th (2), 14th (3), 13th (1), 12th (1), 11th (1), 10th (4), 8th (3), 7th (1). They debuted at #12 in the preseason rankings and they would remain in the top 15 throughout the year. The Buckeyes dropped to 14th in weeks 1 and 2 and rose to 13th in week 3. They jumped up 5 spots to 8th in week 4 and they stayed there for 3 weeks before dropping 7 spots, all the way down to 15th in weeks 7 and 8. They got back to 14th in week 9 and then jumped 3 spots to 11th in week 10. Ohio State was then ranked 10th for 4 consecutive weeks, from week 11 through week 14, before finishing the season as the #7 team in the final rankings. That was their highest ranking of the season. The Buckeyes were in the top 10 in the final 5 sets of rankings.

LSU: The Tigers were in 16 of 16 sets: 15th (1), 13th (1), 12th (1), 11th (1), 9th (1), 8th (3), 7th (2), 6th (4), 4th (2). They debuted at #11 in the preseason rankings and they would remain in the top 15 throughout the year. The Tigers fell to 13th in week 1, went to 12th in week 2, jumped 4 spots to 8th in week 3, and then climbed up to 6th from week 4 through week 6. That was the highest ranking of the season for LSU. The Tigers fell back to 7th in weeks 7 and 8 before again reaching the #4 spot in weeks 9 and 10. LSU dropped back to 6th in week 11 and then fell off 3 more spots to 9th in week 12. LSU was 8th in weeks 13 and 14 but the Tigers fell 7 spots to finish as the #15 team in the final rankings, ending the year with their lowest ranking of the season. The Tigers were ranked in the top 8 in 11 of 16 sets of rankings.

Boise State: The Broncos were ranked in 14 of 16 sets: 13th (1), 11th (4), 10th (1), 9th (1), 8th (1), 7th (5), 4th (1). They debuted in week 2 at #13 and they would remain in the rankings the rest of the way. The Broncos moved to 11th in week 3 and then jumped 4 spots to #7 in week 4, remaining in that spot through week 6. They fell off in week 7, dropping 4 spots to #11 and they would stay there for 3 weeks. Then the Broncos made a steady climb up the rankings, moving to 10th in week 10, 9th in week 11, 8th in week 12, and finally to 7th in week 13. They were 7th again in week 14 but they finished as the #4 team in the final rankings, ending the season with their highest ranking of the year. The Broncos were in the top 11 for the final 13 sets of rankings and the top 10 for the final 6 sets. They were in the top 8 for the final 4 sets of rankings.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats were ranked in 13 of 16 sets: 14th (1), 10th (2), 9th (5), 8th (2), 7th (1), 6th (2). Cincinnati debuted in week 3 at #14 and they would remain in the power rankings the rest of the way. The Bearcats made a big jump to 9th in week 4 and they held the #9 spot for 4 straight weeks. In weeks 8 and 9 they fell to 10th, before going back to 9th in week 10, climbing to 8th in week 11, and then to 7th in week 12. The Bearcats reached their high point next, ranking 6th in weeks 13 and 14 before finishing as the #8 team in the final rankings. The Bearcats were in the top 10 in the final 12 sets of rankings and the top 8 in the final 5 sets of rankings.

TCU: The Horned Frogs were ranked in 12 of 16 sets: 13th (3), 10th (1), 9th (1), 6th (1), 5th (2), 4th (3), 3rd (1). TCU debuted in week 4 at #13 and remained in the power rankings the rest of the way. The Horned Frogs were in 13th for 3 straight weeks, from week 4 through week 6, before moving to 10th in week 7, then to 9th in week 8, then to 6th in week 9, and then reaching 5th in week 10. TCU then held the #4 spot in the rankings for 3 straight weeks, from week 11 through week 13. Finally, in week 14 the Horned Frogs reached their high point of the season, grabbing the #3 spot before dropping off to finish as the #5 team in the final rankings. TCU was ranked in the top 10 in the final 9 sets of rankings and the top 5 in the final 6 sets of rankings.

Oklahoma: The Sooners were ranked in 12 of 16 sets: 14th (1), 13th (1), 9th (1), 7th (1), 6th (1), 5th (4), 4th (1), 3rd (1), 2nd (1). Oklahoma debuted at #2 in the preseason rankings and that would be their highest ranking of the season. The Sooners fell off right away, dropping to 7th in week 1. They went to 6th in week 2 and then got all the way up to 3rd in week 3, before dropping to 4th in week 4 and then to 5th for 4 straight weeks from week 5 through week 8. In week 9 the Sooners dropped 4 spots, falling all the way to 9th, and they fell 5 more spots in week 10, dropping to 14th. Oklahoma was 13th in week 11 before finally falling out of the rankings for good in week 12. The Sooners were ranked in the first 12 sets of power rankings but they fell out in week 12 and never got back in. Oklahoma was ranked in the top 7 in the first 9 sets of rankings and the top 9 in the first 10 sets of rankings. They were ranked in the top 5 for 6 straight weeks, from week 3 through week 8.

Oregon: The Ducks were ranked in 11 of 16 sets: 15th (1), 14th (1), 13th (1), 12th (1), 9th (1), 7th (3), 6th (1), 5th (2). Oregon debuted in week 5 as the #15 team and they remained in the rankings the rest of the way. The Ducks moved steadily up the ranks, going to 14th in week 6, 13th in week 7, 12th in week 8, and then jumping up 5 spots to 7th in week 9. Oregon held the #7 spot for 3 straight weeks, from week 9 through week 11, before going to 6th in week 12, and then grabbing the #5 spot in weeks 13 and 14 for their highest ranking of the season. The Ducks fell off 4 spots to finish as the #9 team in the final standings. Oregon was in the top 9 in the final 7 sets of rankings.

USC: The Trojans were ranked in 11 of 16 sets: 8th (2), 6th (1), 5th (2), 4th (4), 3rd (2). USC debuted as the #5 team in the preseason rankings. The Trojans moved up to 3rd for weeks 1 and 2, their highest ranking of the season, before falling 3 spots back to 6th in week 3. They moved to 5th in week 4 and then to 4th in week 5, and they would hold the #4 spot for 4 straight weeks, from week 5 through week 8. In week 9, however, the Trojans dropped 4 spots down to 8th and they were 8th again in week 10 before falling out of the rankings in week 11. USC was ranked in the first 11 sets of power rankings but they fell out in week 11 and never got back in the top 15. USC was in the top 6 in the first 9 sets of rankings and the top 8 in the first 11 sets of rankings.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions were ranked in 10 of 16 sets: 15th (2), 14th (2), 13th (1), 10th (2), 9th (2), 8th (1). Penn State debuted as the #9 team in the preseason rankings. The Lions were 8th in week 1 and that would be their highest ranking of the season. They fell to 9th in week 2, 10th in week 3, and then dropped all the way out of the rankings in week 4. They stayed out of the top 15 for 5 straight weeks, from week 4 through week 8, before reappearing at #13 in week 9. They fell to 15th in week 10 and then dropped out of the rankings again in week 11. They got right back in at #15 in week 12, and ranked 14th in weeks 13 and 14, before finishing as the #10 team in the final rankings. The Lions were ranked in the first 4 sets of the season and the final 4 sets of the season. Penn State was the only team that fell out of the rankings twice and managed to get back into the rankings a third time.

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets were ranked in 10 of 16 sets: 15th (1), 11th (1), 9th (2), 8th (2), 6th (1), 5th (3). GT debuted in week 6 as the #15 team and they remained in the power rankings the rest of the way. The Jackets leapt 7 spots from 15th to 8th in week 7. They were 8th again in week 8 and then reached 5th in week 9. That was their highest ranking of the year. They dropped back to 6th in week 10, before getting back to 5th in weeks 11 and 12. Tech dropped to 9th in weeks 13 and 14 before finishing as the #11 team in the final rankings. The Jackets were ranked in the final 10 sets. They were in the top 11 in the final 9 sets. The Jackets were in the top 9 for 8 straight weeks, from week 7 through week 14. They were in the top 6 for 4 straight weeks from week 9 through week 12.

Virginia Tech: The Hokies were ranked in 9 of 16 sets: 14th (3), 12th (3), 11th (2), 7th (1). VT debuted as the #7 team in the preseason rankings and that would be their highest ranking of the season. They fell to 12th in week 1, moved up to 11th in week 2, and then fell all the way out of the rankings in week 3. They got right back in the power rankings in week 4 at #11, then went back to 12th in weeks 5 and 6. They fell to 14th in weeks 7 and 8, before falling back out of the rankings again in week 9. This time they were gone for 6 straight weeks, from week 9 through week 14, before finishing back in the top 15 as the #14 team in the final rankings. The Hokies were ranked in 8 of the first 9 sets of rankings.

Iowa: The Hawkeyes were ranked in 9 of 16 sets: 13th (1), 12th (1), 11th (4), 6th (3). Iowa debuted in week 7 as the #6 team and they would remain in the power rankings the rest of the way. That would be their highest ranking and no other team entered the top 15 ranked higher than 11th. Iowa held the 6th spot again in week 8, before falling 6 spots to 12th in week 9, and then to 13th in week 10. The Hawkeyes moved up to 11th in week 11 and they would hold that spot for 4 consecutive weeks, from week 11 through week 14. The Hawkeyes made a big jump to finish as the #6 team in the final rankings. Iowa was in the top 11 in the final 5 sets of rankings.

Miami: The Hurricanes were ranked in 6 of 16 sets: 13th (1), 12th (3), 10th (2). Miami debuted in week 3 as the #12 team and they held that spot again in week 4. They rose to 10th in weeks 5 and 6 and that was their best ranking of the year. They fell back to 12th in week 7, then to 13th in week 8, and then fell out of the rankings for good in week 9. Miami was ranked in the top 13 for 6 straight weeks from week 3 through week 8.

Nebraska: The Cornhuskers were ranked in 5 of 16 sets: 15th (1), 12th (1), 11th (2), 10th (1). Nebraska debuted in week 3 as the #15 team. They moved up 5 spots to 10th in week 4 and that would be their highest ranking of the season. They went to 11th in weeks 5 and 6 before falling out of the rankings in week 7. They remained outside the top 15 for 8 straight weeks, from week 7 through week 14, before finishing as the #12 team in the final rankings. The Cornhuskers were ranked for 4 straight weeks, from week 3 through week 6.

Pittsburgh: The Panthers were ranked in 5 of 16 sets: 15th (2), 14th (1), 13th (1), 12th (1). Pitt debuted in week 11 as the #14 team and they would remain in the power rankings the rest of the way. The Panthers moved to 12th in week 12, their highest ranking of the season, and then fell back to 15th in weeks 13 and 14, before finishing as the #13 team in the final rankings. Pitt was ranked in the final 5 sets.

Cal: The Bears were ranked in 5 of 16 sets: 14th (1), 10th (1), 9th (1), 7th (2). Cal debuted as the #10 team in the preseason rankings. They moved to 9th in week 1 and then got to 7th in weeks 2 and 3 for their highest ranking of the season. Cal fell 7 spots to 14th in week 4, before falling out of the rankings for good in week 5. The Bears were ranked in the first 5 sets of power rankings.

Mississippi: The Rebels were ranked in 4 of 16 sets: 5th (1), 4th (3). Mississippi debuted as the #4 team in the preseason rankings and that would be their highest ranking of the season. The Rebels were 4th in the first 3 sets of rankings, before dropping to 5th in week 3. They fell all the way out of the rankings in week 4 and never appeared again. Mississippi was ranked in the first 4 sets of rankings.

Oklahoma State: The Cowboys were ranked in 4 of 16 sets: 15th (1), 13th (1), 8th (1), 6th (1). Oklahoma State debuted as the #8 team in the preseason rankings. The Cowboys climbed to 6th in week 1 and that would be their highest ranking of the season. They tumbled all the way out of the rankings in week 2 and they would be out of the top 15 for 9 straight weeks, from week 2 through week 10. Finally in week 11 they reappeared in the power rankings at #15. They moved up to 13th in week 12 before falling out of the rankings for good in week 13. Oklahoma State was ranked in back to back sets of rankings twice during the year.

Michigan: The Wolverines were ranked in 4 of 16 sets: 14th (1), 11th (1), 10th (1), 9th (1). Michigan debuted as the #14 team in the preseason rankings. They jumped 3 spots to 11th in week 1, moved to 10th in week 2, and then to 9th in week 3. That would be their highest ranking of the season. In fact, they fell all the way out of the top 15 in week 4 and they would never make it back. Michigan was ranked in the first 4 sets.

Stanford: The Cardinal was ranked in 4 of 16 sets: 14th (1), 12th (3). Stanford debuted at #12 in week 11 and that would be their highest ranking. They fell to 14th in week 12 before getting back to 12th for weeks 13 and 14. However, the Cardinal fell out of the final rankings. Stanford was ranked in 4 straight sets from week 11 through week 14.

BYU: The Cougars were ranked in 3 of 16 sets: 15th (1), 10th (1), 8th (1). BYU debuted as the #15 team in the preseason rankings. They jumped 5 spots in week 1, getting all the way up to 10th, and in week 2 they moved up to 8th, their highest ranking of the season. In week 3 they fell all the way out of the top 15 and they did not make it back to the power rankings again in 2009. The Cougs were ranked in the first 3 sets.

Notre Dame: The Irish were ranked in 2 of 16 sets: 15th (2). Notre Dame debuted as the #15 team in week 2. They fell out of the rankings in week 3 and remained out for 6 straight weeks. They finally got back into the power rankings at #15 in week 9. That would be their highest ranking of the season. In fact, they fell out of the rankings for good in week 10. ND was never ranked higher than 15th and they were never able to stay in the rankings for more than a week.

Auburn: The Tigers were ranked in 2 of 16 sets: 15th (1), 14th (1). Auburn debuted as the #15 team in week 4 and they reached their high point in week 5 as the #14 team. They fell out of the rankings in week 6 and did not get back in the power rankings the rest of the year. Auburn was ranked in back to back sets in week 4 and week 5.

Oregon State: The Beavers were ranked in 2 of 16 sets: 13th (2). Oregon State did not debut in the rankings until week 13 as the 13th ranked team. They were 13th again in week 14 but they fell out of the final rankings. Oregon State was ranked in consecutive sets in weeks 13 and 14.

Georgia: The Dawgs were ranked in 1 of 16 sets: 13th (1). UGA debuted as the #13 team in the preseason rankings. The Dawgs were the only team in the preseason top 15 that was bounced in week 1 and they did not return to the power rankings the rest of the way.

Tennessee: The Vols were ranked in 1 of 16 sets: 15th (1). UT debuted in week 1 as the #15 team. They did not belong and fell out for good in week 2.

Arizona: The Wildcats were ranked in 1 of 16 sets: 12th (1). Arizona debuted as the #12 team in week 10. They fell out of the top 15 in week 11 and were never heard from again.