Wednesday, January 13, 2010

The NFL Blog: 2009 Divisional Round Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (2-2); Straight Up (2-2).
Season: Vs. Spread (122-131-6); Straight Up (171-88).

Wild Card Round Review: Oh well. It could have been worse but it could have been better. I just can’t believe Green Bay’s defense couldn’t stop Arizona even once or twice.

Divisional Round Preview: I was all ready to pick New Orleans and Indianapolis to lose but the wrong teams won. I just wonder how much longer Arizona can keep this up. If they beat New Orleans I’m going to start getting scared.

Saturday’s Late Day Game

Arizona (+7) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Cardinals beat the spread
Comment: Ahhhh…I hate the frickin Cardinals so much. How did they destroy Green Bay’s defense like that? It was obviously a game that could have gone either way in the end. When Green Bay won the toss in OT you thought they were going to win. But they didn’t. And let’s be honest: Green Bay was lucky to be in the game. Give the Packers credit for a lot of the things they did well and for not giving up. But Arizona should have had the game won a number of times before the defense scored in OT to end Green Bay’s chances. The Cardinals were heading in for a score to make it 24-0 in the first half when Charles Woodson was able to rip the ball away from Larry Fitzgerald and the Packers went down and scored to get back in the game. Then there was the onsides kick that somehow caught the Cardinals off guard. There were a number of penalties against Arizona defenders that could have gone either way. The Packers were able to convert on a pair of crucial 4th downs. And then there was the blown field goal by Neil Rackers which was one of the more obvious joke jobs I have ever seen. Arizona’s offense looked unstoppable and the defense was its usual opportunistic self. And it looks like the Cardinals have managed to keep a running back fresh for the playoffs again this year. Beanie Wells was a force in last week’s game. And they did all of that without Anquan Boldin.

Somehow the Cardinals are just able to flip the switch whenever they want and become a Super Bowl contender again. The numbers are basically meaningless. Arizona doesn’t even come to play until the postseason. They know they have the division title in the bag so they take it easy and wait to turn it on in the playoffs. It worked last year and it worked last week. At this point I’m resigned to the fact that it’s going to keep working. I really don’t see any reason why Arizona couldn’t go into New Orleans and come out with a win. Kurt Warner went up against one of the best defenses in the league (statistically) last week and he was totally unfazed. What will he do against one of the weaker defenses in the league? And it’s a defense that especially struggles against the pass. You have to pressure Warner or he will eat you alive and I just don’t see why the Saints will be able to get more pressure on Warner than the Packers did.

Arizona is now 11-6 and 10-7 against the spread. The Cardinals are a surprising 6-2 on the road this season (5-3 ATS). They have outscored opponents by 3.3 points per game this year and that number goes up to +7.7 on the road. It really doesn’t do any good to go back and look at how Arizona finished the regular season. They are 3-3 in their last 6 and 3-4 ATS in their last 7. But it’s irrelevant. They are simply a different team in the playoffs.

We all know how the Saints started the season and we all know how they finished it. They lost their last 3 games, and in contrast to some other teams, the Saints were actually trying to win all of their games up until the finale. The losses at home to Dallas and Tampa were legit. They also needed a miraculous comeback and collapse by the Redskins in order to beat Washington. The defense was always being covered up a bit by the offense but it was the Saints high powered offense that was struggling down the stretch. New Orleans finished 13-3 (8-8 ATS) and 6-2 at home (4-4 ATS). They outscored opponents by an average of 10.6 points per game during the season (+10.3 at home) but much of that damage was done early on. Aside from losing their last 3 games they have also lost 5 straight ATS. They are just 2-8 in their last 10 ATS after starting the season 6-0 ATS.

The Saints should be helped on offense by the improved health of some of their players. Receiver Lance Moore and running back Pierre Thomas should be ready to go. But the Saints will have to deal with an Arizona defense that has an uncanny knack for causing chaos. The Packers turned the ball over on their first two possessions last week and Arizona turned it into 14 quick points. Then the defense won the game by returning another turnover for the game winning touchdown. They get pressure, they tackle, they strip the ball, and the defensive backs have the speed and the smarts to trick QB’s into mistakes. They will get burned every once in a while but they also make a lot of plays. The Saints were great at pass protection this season, allowing the 4th fewest sacks in the NFL. But Arizona’s defense was 6th in sacks and I think they’ll be able to pressure Brees the way that Dallas did. If you pressure Brees he is not nearly as deadly as he is with time to throw. One thing about the Cardinals pass rushers is that they are very adept at jumping the snap count and that can beat even the best offensive line. If the Saints can avoid falling behind, they will be able to mix the run into their offense and keep things balanced the way they did during the season. That would certainly help. For one, they might be able to run effectively on Arizona. Secondly, it will keep Arizona’s defense honest. However, I just don’t see how this will happen because the Cards will likely put the Saints in a hole the way they do against everyone else in the playoffs. If the Saints do fall behind, it will be interesting to see if the Saints can keep from becoming one-dimensional.

I don’t see the Saints stopping Arizona on the other side of the ball. Brees and the other members of the Saints offense need to be prepared for a shootout. How are they going to get pressure on Warner? Arizona threw the ball on every play except for like 2 or 3 this season and they still finished tied for the 6th fewest sacks allowed. The Saints defense tied for 13th in sacks and now they don’t have Charles Grant. New Orleans should benefit from having a healthier Darren Sharper. LB Scott Shanle should also be able to come back this week after sitting out due to concussions. They will need all the help they can get, especially if Anquan Boldin is able to go this week. Arizona scored 51 without Boldin on a Green Bay defense that had some of the best numbers in the league. What will they do with Boldin against a Saints defense that was 20th in scoring defense, 25th in total defense, 26th in pass defense, and 21st in rush defense?

A lot of people make a big deal over playing in the Superdome but I’ve never bought it. More bad things have happened to the home team in that place than good. Even this year the Saints had a better record on the road (7-1) than at home. Including this season, the Saints are now 6 games over .500 in the regular season this decade at 83-77. Guess what. They are 4 games under .500 at home this decade, at 37-41. They’ve never had a big home field advantage. In 8 of the 10 seasons during this decade the Saints had a better record on the road than they did at home. Everybody wants to talk about how “oh, ever since Katrina that place has turned into the biggest home field advantage in sports.” Ehhh, not really. Since the start of the 2006 season, the Saints are 18-13 at home and 20-13 on the road (extra road game last year when they played in London). In 2006, when the Saints went 10-6 and reached the NFC Championship Game, they were 4-4 at the Dome and 6-2 on the road, although they did win a home playoff game over the Eagles. In 2000 when the Saints went 10-6 they were just 3-5 at home, but again, they won a home playoff game over the Rams. In their previous 3 home playoff games they had lost (87, 91, 92). My point is that I don’t think it’s much of an advantage playing at the Superdome, especially when Arizona is a team that is just as well suited for the indoor, turf game. Maybe the crowd noise will help New Orleans get pressure on Warner but I highly doubt it. And Arizona doesn’t mind going on the road anymore. The Cards had as good of a road record this season as the Saints did at home and a better record ATS. Arizona went to Carolina in last year’s divisional round, where the Panthers were 8-0, and they turned it into a joke. Oh by the way, New Orleans is 79-78-3 ATS this decade. They are 48-31-3 ATS on the road and 27-45-2 ATS at home.

During the regular season the Saints had the #1 scoring offense and the #1 total offense in the NFL. They were 4th in passing and 6th in rushing. Arizona was tied 14th in scoring defense; 20th in total defense; 23rd in pass defense; and 17th in rush defense. None of that matters. New Orleans should score some points but the Cardinals will get their turnovers and big plays on defense. I don’t think the Saints defense will be able to slow Arizona down at all. New Orleans was 20th in scoring defense; 25th in total defense; 26th in pass defense; and 21st in rushing defense. Compare those numbers to the gaudy stats put up by the Green Bay defense that Arizona shredded last week. There has been something special about the Saints this year. They expected to win and they did for the first 13 weeks but they seem to have lost something lately. The Cardinals have been on a remarkable run in the playoffs over their last 5 games and they now expect to win. If this is a close game, I give Arizona the edge at QB and at head coach. If the game is decided by a field goal both teams could be in trouble. The Saints need to get a big play out of their return game and I think they will. Courtney Roby has been one of the best kick returners in the game this year. Reggie Bush should be healthy by this point and he is way over due to break a long punt return (if the Saints can ever force a punt). If the game is a shootout, I think playing that overtime barn burner last week will start to hurt the Cardinals. They played into OT last Sunday night and they will be playing another likely high scoring game on Saturday afternoon. That’s not a lot of recovery time. The Saints were off last week and they basically took week 17 off as well. This could come into play.

While everything is telling me that the Cardinals are going to knock off everyone’s darlings in New Orleans, I just can’t quite accept it. At some point they have got to play like a 10-6 or 9-7 team and not like a 14-2 team. I’m letting my dislike of the Cardinals affect me but then again it would make sense for the 13-3 home team to beat the 10 win team playing on the road on short rest. I think the spread is way too big. It should be more like 3.5. I don’t think there’s any way the Saints cover. I think it’s going to be another thriller like Arizona’s game was last week. But this time I think the breaks will go against Arizona. I like the Saints to win by a point or 2.



Saturday’s Night Game

Baltimore (+6.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Ravens beat the spread
Comment: As I said before, I was going to pick the Jets to upset the Colts if both New York and New England won last week. But the Ravens trounced the Patriots at Gillette Stadium to earn a trip to the big Oil Drum, where it’s all about resting players and not about trying for eternal glory. I’m sure by now the fans will have moved on from that week 16 debacle against the Jets. Surely the players have as well. The place should be rocking when it gets under way, as the fans have really been waiting for weeks now to see the Colts try and win. But what if things don’t go well early on? These fans have seen the Colts lose in the playoffs more than once when they appeared to be the best team going in. In 2005 the Colts started 13-0 but they lost to the Chargers and then decided to take it easy in the final 2 games. They were 14-2 and 10 point favorites over the Steelers at home in the divisional round and they choked. In 2007 the Colts forfeited their final game, helping the Titans reach the playoffs, and they went into the postseason 13-3. They were 10 point favorites at home against the Chargers in the divisional round and they choked again, losing to a San Diego team that played most of the game without LT and Phillip Rivers. Last year the Colts won their final 9 games and they lost in the Wild Card round at San Diego, scoring just 17 points after averaging 30 a game during the final month. Even if you go back to 2003 and 2004, many people thought they were better than the Patriots but they got ousted from the playoffs by New England both years. If the Colts offense is off rhythm and Peyton gets flustered and things start going badly the crowd could turn on the team. I personally don’t think Manning handles the pressure well in the postseason. He’s just a little bit different when it’s win or go home. This year the Colts had better not lose before the Super Bowl or else that pathetic display against the Jets will become a major part of this team’s legacy.

While Indy has been off for a month now, the Ravens have been fighting for their lives the entire season. Last week they went into Foxboro and bullied the Patriots in their own backyard. The Ravens were 3.5 point dogs but they won 33-14. Baltimore is now 10-7 on the season (9-7-1 ATS) and 4-5 on the road (4-4-1 ATS). The Ravens have outscored opponents by an average of 8.7 points per game, but that number dwindles to just +1.6 on the road. Baltimore has won 4 of its last 5 but the Ravens are just 3-4-1 in their last 8 ATS. The Colts forfeited their last 2 games but before the Jets game they had won 14 in a row and they were 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games prior to the disgrace against New York. If the Colts can regain their pre-forfeit form they will be tough to beat. And yet, it’s not like Indy was that dominant this year, they just know how to win in the regular season at this point. The Colts outscored opponents by an average of 6.8 points per game this season. Somewhat surprisingly they were just +4.4 per game at home. Still, the Colts were 14-2 this season (10-5-1 ATS) and 7-1 at home (3-4-1 ATS).

Last week a lot of people were talking about how Andy Reid had never lost a first round playoff game and Tom Brady had never lost a home playoff game. Well, the Ravens haven’t beaten the Colts since Jim Mora was manning the sidelines in Indy. The Colts have won 7 straight over the Ravens since 2002, including the divisional playoff game in Baltimore in 2006. The Colts have covered in the last 6 meetings. This is the only matchup of the weekend that is a rematch from the regular season. In week 11, the Colts were 1 point favorites at Baltimore and they wound up pulling out a 17-15 win over the Ravens in what was a very strange game. An ill-advised lateral by Ed Reed during an interception return was key in helping the Colts win the game. Manning was intercepted twice in the game and both teams had over 350 yards of offense.

Baltimore has struggled to put it all together and be the team that many thought they would be after they started the season 3-0. The Ravens were impressive in their dismantling of the Patriots on the road last week but will they be able to come up with a second straight road upset? The key will be pressuring Manning, disrupting his timing and confusing him, and frustrating him. They will need to force some turnovers and make big plays on key downs. If the Ravens win the game it will be because of their defense, which appears to be rounding into form at the best possible time. Baltimore was 3rd in scoring defense; 3rd in total defense; 8th in pass defense; and 5th in rush defense this season. The Ravens don’t get a ton of sacks, finishing just tied for 18th in that department. But they know how to pressure the QB, as evidenced by their mauling of Tom Brady at times last week. You aren’t going to get all the way to Peyton Manning much anyway. The Colts rely almost completely on throwing the ball in order to move down the field and score points, yet they allowed only 13 sacks all season, best in the league. Indy makes no effort to run the ball, finishing 32nd in that department during the year, and they will not be able to run it all against Baltimore. It will be up to Peyton and his receivers to move the ball against Ray Lewis and the Raven D. The Colts were 7th in points and 9th in total offense this season but it was almost all Peyton, as the Colts were 2nd in the NFL in passing and dead last in rushing. That will work in the regular season but will it work against a very good defense in the playoffs?

Traditionally, Indy has been a bit soft against the run, and the Colts were 24th in rush defense this season. Indy is definitely a bend but don’t break defense as usual. They were 14th against the pass and 18th in total defense but they allowed the 8th fewest points in the NFL. Baltimore will have to take care of the ball to keep it away from Peyton and try and wear down the undersized Indy defense with a continuous running attack. That rushing attack will help slow down the bookend DE’s as well. And the Ravens must get in the end zone when they have the chance. They kicked 5 field goals in the week 11 matchup and it came back to bite them. The Ravens were actually a fairly good offensive team this season. They were 9th in points scored and 13th in total offense. They have the 5th best rushing attack in the league and that will be what they rely on in this game. Flacco can make plays if needed but he needs to be careful.

One thing that may come into play in this game is the fact that Indy is going with Matt Stover as kicker, with Adam Vinatieri on the shelf. Stover may have to hit a big kick against the team he spent most of his career with. Baltimore has had kicking problems as well. Billy Cunduff has been the guy lately and he’s missed quite a few, including some from relatively short distance. Indy is always susceptible to a key return. The problem is, Baltimore’s kick return specialist—Ladarius Webb—is on the shelf.

I expect this to be a close game, as Baltimore’s defense should be able to hold down Peyton and the offense to some extent and the Ravens should be able to run the ball successfully against Indy. In the end, however, I have to go with the Colts because of the home field advantage and because they have been so good at finding a way to win this season (at least, that is, when they’re trying to win). I think the Colts will win a very competitive and low scoring game by 4 or 5 points.

Sunday’s Early Game

Dallas (+2.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: Everybody loves the Cowboys. I have to admit: they are playing lights out right now. Minnesota faltered down the stretch and started to show some cracks. Brett Favre will have a lot of pressure on him but he should feel some relief that the nightmare situation of the Packers beating him in the playoffs is no longer a possibility. Which Favre will we see? Will he force the issue and make a bunch of mistakes or will he stay within the game plan the way he has for the entire season? I’m also curious to see what kind of a game Adrian Peterson has. Actually, Peterson might be more of a liability with the ball in his hands than Favre is these days. Peterson is flat out prone to fumbling and it is a legitimate problem. His fumbles can kill drives when the Vikings are rolling. And when you’re trying to salt away a victory and the other team is desperately trying to strip the ball, Peterson’s fumbles can give the opposition new life. Furthermore, Peterson has been much less of a factor in recent weeks. Part of it may be that the Vikings need to concentrate more on keeping him involved. But there’s no doubt that Minnesota’s run blocking has been lacking in recent weeks. There’s just not much there a lot of the time. If Dallas can shutdown AP it will all be up to Favre and in my opinion you don’t want that if you’re Minnesota. It’s almost easy to forget that Tony Romo has struggled with taking care of the ball throughout his career as well. For quite some time now, Romo has been avoiding costly turnovers and avoiding making other mistakes that could hurt his team. Romo needs to continue to do that as the Cowboys try to take the next step and reach an NFC Title game.

The Cowboys are now 12-5 (10-7 ATS) and 5-3 on the road (4-4 ATS). They have outscored an opponents by an average of 7.7 points per game. On the road, Dallas has outscored opponents by an average of 2.8 points per game. The Cowboys are of course red hot at the moment. The Boys have won 4 in a row and they are 6-2 over their last 8 games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 but just 5-4 ATS over their last 9 games. There’s no denying the fact that the Cowboys have been absolutely dominant during their current 4 game win streak. They held the Saints to 17 points and ended their perfect season in New Orleans in week 15. They ended the year throwing back to back shutouts against rivals Washington and Philadelphia. Last week the Cowboys went to Philly and spanked the Eagles for the 2nd week in a row, winning by 20. Over the last 3 games, the Cowboys have averaged 161.7 rushing yards per game, 431.0 total yards of offense per game, 45.3 yards rushing allowed per game, and just 4.7 points allowed per game.

The Vikings are 12-4 (9-6-1 ATS) and a perfect 8-0 at home (5-2-1 ATS). The Vikings have a +9.9 average scoring differential. At home the Vikings have crushed the opposition. Their average scoring margin in home games is +17.3. Minnesota ended the season just 2-3 in their final 5 games (2-3 ATS).

Once again, cashing in on scoring opportunities will be huge for the Cowboys in this game. Dallas was 2nd in total offense this season but just 14 in scoring offense. Turnovers, sacks, and ill-timed penalties are all things that Dallas must stay away from when they have chances to put the ball in the end zone or put points on the board with a FG. The Cowboys have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the league, as they finished 6th in passing and 7th in rushing during the regular season. Minnesota’s offense has some balance as well but the Vikings were a surprisingly average rushing team this season. Minnesota was 8th in passing but just 13th in rushing. Never the less, the Vikings were the 2nd highest scoring team in the NFL and they ended up 5th in total offense.

The Dallas defense is peaking at the right time. The Cowboys have been so good on defense lately that it’s almost point less to look at the numbers for the entire year. Not that Dallas didn’t put up good numbers. The Cowboys were 2nd in scoring defense and 9th in total defense. They were the 4th stingiest defense against the run but during the regular season they were fairly average against the pass, finishing 20th in the league in that category. Lately the Cowboys have been putting consistent pressure on the QB and that has helped the pass defense. The Cowboys defense was 7th in the NFL this year with 42 sacks. Minnesota was the best at rushing the passer during the regular season, finishing 1st in the NFL with 48 sacks. Both offensive lines will have their hands full. Each team allowed 34 sacks this season, tied 15th in the league. If the Vikings are unable to get pressure on the QB they will probably be in more trouble than Dallas. While the Cowboys rely on pressure too, they still have some very solid defensive backs who can handle their business. Minnesota was 19th in pass defense this season and they are not anywhere near as healthy on defense as the Cowboys are. The Vikings will of course have the Williams boys up front and Jared Allen rushing relentlessly next to them. But the Dallas O-line has been control the last few weeks. Minnesota’s offensive line, on the other hand, has struggled at times down the stretch. I don’t think the Cowboys will be able to run consistently against the Vikings, who finished 2nd in the league against the run. Minnesota ranked 6th in total defense and 10th in scoring defense during the season. This game may end up in the hands of both quarterbacks. I don’t know who I’d rather have in that situation: Romo or Favre?

Twice during the Cowboys’ 4 game win streak they have gone into tough environments and beaten good teams. They will have to do it a 3rd time this Sunday. I think the Cowboys will be okay playing in Minnesota but it will be loud in the Metrodome, you can be sure of that. I also think the Vikings are clearly a more special team when they are playing at home. But teams have gone to the Metrodome and won in the playoffs several times, including just last year when the Eagles beat the Vikes at home in the WC round.

It’s really hard to pick against the Cowboys right now. They truly appear to be peaking right now, while the Vikings appeared to pick over a month ago. However, I think the Vikings are going to show up and play well and I think they’ll get help from their crowd. This should be a very tight game and I expect it to come down to the very end. I like the Vikings to win by a field goal.



Sunday’s Late Day Game

New York Jets (+9) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Jets beat the spread
Comment: This matchup features the biggest spread of the weekend but even in this game there is not a double digit favorite. Last week the Jets went to Cincinnati and whipped the Bengals on their own field, beating them for the 2nd straight week. The Jets are playing with a ton of confidence and nothing to lose. San Diego has been perhaps the hottest team in football for the last 3 months. Once again the Chargers head into the playoffs looking like they might be the most dangerous team out there. I think the Jets are dangerous too because they know what they’re good at. They run the ball and pressure the quarterback. If they can do that against the Chargers this will be a game for sure and the Jets might even have a chance to pull off a shocker late. Having said that, if the Chargers play their absolute best I don’t think they will lose again this season.

The Jets are now 10-7 on the year (10-7 ATS) and an impressive 6-3 on the road (6-3 ATS). The Jets allow only 14.7 points a game and that takes a lot of pressure off of the offense and the rookie QB in particular. New York has had an average scoring differential of +7.2. That average margin actually improves to +8.4 for the Jets in road games. San Diego is 13-3 (8-7-1 ATS) and 6-2 at home (3-4-1 ATS). The Chargers have outscored opponents by an average of 8.4 points per game. Somewhat surprisingly, that number falls to +5.6 in home games. Both of these teams are rolling at this point. The Jets have now won 6 of their last 7 games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. San Diego has won 11 straight games and the Chargers are 6-2-1 ATS over their last 9 games.

San Diego has looked like the best team in the league towards the end of the season but the Chargers numbers don’t blow you away. They are 4th in scoring offense and 10th in total offense, but like Indianapolis, the Chargers entire offense is driven by the passing game. The Chargers are 31st in the NFL in rushing. The 5th ranked passing offense is what makes the San Diego offense go. Defensively, the Chargers finished 11th in scoring defense and just 16th in total defense. They were 11th in the league against the pass and 20th against the run. It will be interesting to see if the Chargers make an attempt to shutdown the New York running game and make Mark Sanchez beat them with his arm. I’m not sure the Chargers will be able to completely stop the New York ground game but they might be able to slow it down. The Jets offense is sort of a mirror image of San Diego’s offense. The Jets finished 1st in the NFL in rushing and 31st in passing. I don’t think the Jets will be able to completely hide Sanchez and he actually made some good plays last week. The Chargers defense recorded 35 sacks this season, tied for 13th in the league. The Jets tried not to throw it much and their offensive line did a decent job protecting Sanchez when they had to throw it. New York was tied for 10th with just 30 sacks allowed this season. Sanchez should have decent time and some opportunities when the Chargers commit to stopping the running game.

On the other side of the ball, the Chargers will not have an easy time matching their 28 point average against New York’s defense. The Jets finished 1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense, and 8th in run defense. Last week the Bengals had some success running the ball against the Jets but they could do nothing through the air. I think the Jets will be able to limit the San Diego rushing game to a large extent. However, I do think the Chargers will be able to throw the ball with some success in this game, even against the top passing defense in the game right now. New York’s shutdown corner can take one of the big San Diego receivers out of the game but who is going to man up with Antonio Gates? They will still get passes to backs out of the backfield and Rivers will still be able to move the ball even in the face of all of that blitzing. You know, even though the Jets blitz more than any other team, they only notched 32 sacks this season, tied for 18th in the NFL. San Diego’s offensive line, which has been criticized over the years, allowed only 26 sacks this season, tied for 6th best.

In a close game the Chargers would have several major advantages. Obviously they are the home team and the Jets are having to fly out to California and play them on their grass field. More importantly, the Chargers have a gigantic edge at the QB position in every conceivable way. We all know how important that is. Finally, the Chargers have a decided edge in special teams. They have a great kicker, a super punter, and fantastic return man. So if the game is closer than the spread indicates, the Chargers would still be in good shape. I think the game will remain fairly low scoring and that will keep the Jets in the game. I just don’t see the Jets getting blown out by anybody right now. However, I expect the Chargers to put the game away in the end and win by 6 or 7 points.

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