The NFL Blog: 2009 Wild Card Round Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-6-1); Straight Up (14-2).
Season: Vs. Spread (120-129-6); Straight Up (169-86).

Week 17 Review: I finished up the season with a week 17 that was eerily similar to my final week last year: strong straight up and over .500 ATS. Alas, it was again not enough to get me to .500 ATS for the season.

Wild Card Round Preview: For the second year in a row I am struck by the weirdness of the Wild Card matchups. Last season all 4 home teams were underdogs. This year, 3 of the 4 games are rematches from the final week of the regular season (aka: last week). It’s hard to know how much stock to put in last week’s results. Last year I was disappointed with my playoff predictions. I’m hoping for better this year.

Saturday’s Late Day Game

New York Jets (+2.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Jets pull off the upset
Comment: This is a rematch from last week. The Bengals were 9.5 point underdogs on the road and they played like it, losing 37-0 to the Jets. The win got New York into the playoffs. For the Bengals, the loss meant they would be the #4 seed and would have to face the Jets again this weekend. This time, the game will be in Cincinnati, but I’m just not sure how much home field advantage matters anymore, especially when you’re dealing with two outdoor, cold weather teams. It’s true that “The Jungle” will be hyped up for the game. And it’s true that the Jets have a rookie QB. But crowd noise shouldn’t rattle Mark Sanchez too much when he’ll mostly be handing the ball off or running off the field so that Brad Smith can come in to run the wildcat.

New York is 9-7 on the year (9-7 against the spread) and 5-3 on the road (5-3 ATS), although one of their road games was against the Bills in Toronto. Cincinnati is 10-6 on the season (7-9 ATS) and 6-2 at home (just 3-5 ATS at home). The Jets come into the game as the hotter team and it’s not close. New York is 5-1 in its last 6 (5-1 ATS), while the Bengals are 1-3 in their last 4 (1-3 ATS). Cinci is 1-6 ATS over the last 7 games.

The Jets have quietly (for those of us who automatically tune out mass coverage of New York sports teams) compiled some numbers that are hard to argue against. Their stats don’t seem to jive with a 9-7 record. Why? Well, part of it is no doubt the fact that their last two opponents basically stopped playing at halftime. But that’s only a small part. The Jets have had a number of close losses (2 losses to the Dolphins by a total of 9 points; a 3 point overtime loss to the Bills; a 2 point loss to the Jags; and a 3 point loss to the Falcons) and they lost some of these games despite dominating much of the action on the field. In these games the Jets were derailed by mistakes made by their inexperienced QB and problems with special teams. They could easily have won 11 or 12 games. New York’s impressive statistics are as follow: 1st in the NFL in rushing; 1st in total defense; 1st in scoring defense; 1st in pass defense; and 8th in rush defense. The Jets outscored opponents by an average of 21.8-14.8 for a +7.0 average scoring differential.

The Bengals have also been a strong defensive team. They rank 4th in the NFL in total defense; 6th in scoring defense; 6th in pass defense; and 7th in rush defense. Those are good numbers but not nearly as impressive as New York’s defensive numbers. The Bengals are also 9th in the NFL in rushing, but again, the Jets are the #1 rushing team in the league. And make no mistake: neither team is a threat through the air. Carson Palmer may have a huge edge over Sanchez in experience but he has been largely unimpressive this season. The Bengals outscored opponents by an average of 19.1-18.2 for an average scoring differential of just +0.9. Statistically, the Jets have the edge in total offense; scoring offense; rushing offense; total defense; scoring defense; and passing defense. The Bengals have a slight edge defensively against the run.

Neither of these teams has had a lot of recent success in the playoffs. In fact, these teams have rarely made the playoffs in recent years. The Cincinnati crowd will be hyped up but the place could quiet down quickly if things don’t go well early on. Jets fans will be expecting the worst but I don’t think the team is thinking that way. There’s no doubt that the Jets come in as the more confident team.

I’ve been slow to accept the Jets as anything but an annoying, over-hyped, mediocre, lucky team. But over the past few weeks I’ve started to think that they may be able to win a game or two in the playoffs based solely on defense and running the football. As for the Bengals, I started taking them seriously a couple of months back when they swept the Ravens and Steelers. But over the past few weeks my regard for the Bengals has fallen considerably as they struggled against mediocre competition.

The Jets certainly showed more of their game plan last week than the Bengals did and perhaps Cincinnati can use that against them. It could be that Marvin Lewis and his staff will have some kind of advantage over the clownish Rex Ryan and his staff. But I’m not sure how much it will matter because this should be a low scoring, defensive battle. Even if the Bengals stuff the Jets running game, I don’t think Ryan will try to win the game with Mark Sanchez. I know the Bengals have been trying to keep Cedric Benson fresh but I really don’t see him as a major threat. The Bengals will not be able to throw on the Jets. Chad Johnson may or may not be 100%, but again, it won’t matter. The Jets defense will take him out of the game. Johnson runs at the mouth and plays games and acts really cute but when it comes down to it he is not on anybody’s list of big game receivers. New York may be without their leading tackler if David Harris is unable to go, but somehow I don’t think a sprained ankle is going to keep him from playing.

I see the Jets completely stifling the Bengal offense and eventually wearing down the Cincinnati defense with the ground game. Late in the game the Jets will start to have more success moving the ball and they will take control of low scoring game and grind out the win.



Saturday’s Night Game

Philadelphia (+4) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Eagles beat the spread
Comment: This is another rematch from last Sunday and this one will be played at the same location, as the Cowboys’ win over the Eagles last week gave them the division title and the home field advantage. Of course this will actually be the third meeting between these two teams this year and the Cowboys will be going for a 3-0 sweep. In week 9, the Cowboys were 3 point underdogs on the road in Philly and came away with a 20-16 win. Last week in Dallas neither team needed a win to get into the playoffs but they both had plenty to play for, as the division title was on the line, and for the Eagles a first round bye was there for the taking. However, the Cowboys (favored by 3) were the only team that showed up, as they hammered the Eagles 24-0. The hallmark of Philly’s defense is its many varied blitz schemes and some have pointed out that they played a very vanilla defense last Sunday. Perhaps they will throw everything at Tony Romo this week and the strategy of holding back will pay off. Still, it seems like you would do everything possible to get the #2 seed; especially when the alternative was the #6 seed and a rematch with Dallas the following week.

These teams are both 11-5 and 9-7 against the spread. Philly is 5-3 on the road (5-3 ATS) while the Cowboys are 6-2 at home (5-3 ATS). The Eagles were in a serious roll before falling flat on their faces last week. Still, they finished the regular season having won 6 of their last 7 games (4-3 ATS). But without question the Cowboys have the momentum. The Cowboys won their final 3 games (3-0 ATS) in impressive style, beating previously unbeaten New Orleans on the road, shutting out the Redskins on the road, and then shutting out the Eagles at home last Sunday.

The Eagles have put up a ton of points but they’ve also allowed more points than you might have expected. They’ve outscored opponents by an average score of 26.8-21.1 for an average scoring differential of +5.7. Dallas has struggled to score points at times but they’ve been very difficult to score against, especially lately. The Boys outscored opponents by an average of 22.6-15.6 for a +7.0 scoring differential. The Cowboys definitely have more impressive overall numbers, holding an edge in total offense; passing; rushing; total defense; scoring defense; and rushing defense. The Eagles have scored more points and have slightly better numbers against the pass.

Offensively the two teams really have contrasting styles. The Eagles have always struggled with consistency on offense. They always lacked a true running game that they could stick with and keep teams honest. The lack of any sort of power running attack made converting short yardage situations difficult and thus drives could be stopped. The lack of a go to receiver also hurt their ability to pick up first downs consistently. Another factor keeping the offense from consistently moving the ball down the field was McNabb’s inaccuracy, as occasional misfires on relatively easy throws would slow things down and stall drives. In the early days, McNabb’s running ability essentially offset these problems, as he could pick up first downs with his legs in situations where other QB’s would have been sacked, stopped short, or forced to throw the ball away. For a variety of reasons, however, this element of McNabb’s game faded away and he used his legs mainly to escape pressure and keep plays alive. The Eagles offense was dangerous because McNabb could hit a deep ball or elude pressure and find an open receiver. And Brian Westbrook could bust out with a big play at any moment. While dangerous, the offense was not consistent, but the mediocre offense did not stop the Eagles from being one of the best teams in the league year in and year out because they always had a top notch defense. It seems that the Eagles eventually decided to accept their weaknesses and focus on their strengths. They drafted fast, athletic offensive players, giving McNabb a plethora of weapons. And the last couple of years the Eagles’ offense has been as explosive and dangerous as any in the NFL. But of course the inconsistency has remained. This year the offense became even more reliant on the big passing play when Brian Westbrook was often unavailable or less than 100% due to injuries. The Eagles were 22nd in rushing this season but they were 10th in passing. At this point the Eagles are a more dangerous big play offense than ever before but they are perhaps even less consistent offensively than they were in the past. If McNabb has even an average day he has a number of players around him who can make plays. When McNabb has a bad day the Eagles are totally screwed. And if the opposition can take away the big play, the Eagles offense is quite limited. Philly was 11th in total offense but was the 5th highest scoring team in the NFL. That speaks to big plays. It’s really hit or miss for them. They don’t run the ball well and they aren’t going to go on a lot of long drives. They must get big plays in the passing game to be effective.

The Cowboys are basically just the opposite on offense. Where as the Eagles offense relies heavily on passing, the Cowboys have one of the more balanced offenses in the NFL, finishing 6th in passing and 7th in rushing. They move the ball as well as just about any team but at times they lack a difference maker who can put points on the board. This is one thing that is different about this year’s Dallas team. They haven’t had as many of the big plays resulting from high risk/high reward passes by Tony Romo. They haven’t had a guy like Terrell Owens, who along with being a complete douche bag throughout his career, has also been a touchdown machine. Romo has been more conscious of taking care of the ball and his top targets—Miles Austin and Jason Whitten—are not big play types. This season Dallas has had to go on long, sustained drives in order to score. When those drives end in points they succeed but it’s hard to put up a lot of points without at least an occasional explosive play. For Dallas, it’s all about making the drives translate into points. Consider that the Cowboys were 2nd in the NFL in total offense but just 14th in scoring. That’s pretty amazing to tell you the truth. Some of that is just bad luck. But it also illustrates the importance of finishing drives and taking full advantage of scoring chances.

These two teams are also different than they were in years past on the defensive side of the ball. In the past, the Cowboys have had no shortage of “talent” on defense but they have never really been known for shutting down the opposition. This season has been different. The Cowboys finished 9th in total defense and they allowed the 2nd fewest points in the NFL this season. They are still vulnerable against the pass, ranking 20th in pass defense this year, but they overcome coverage issues with their tremendous pass rush. And the Cowboys have been tough against the run, finishing 4th in rushing defense during the regular season. The Dallas defense seems to be peaking right now. In their final 3 games they allowed a total of 14 points, despite facing the Saints and the Eagles over that stretch. In the past it was the offense that led the Cowboys but right now it is most certainly the defense that is carrying the team and traditionally that has been the case for championship teams.

While the improvement of the Dallas defense has become obvious to anyone paying attention during the last few weeks, what has seemingly gone unnoticed has been the decline of the Eagles defense. There are a number of possible reasons why the defense has not been as strong this season, beginning with the losses of coordinator Jim Johnson and safety Brian Dawkins. The Eagles haven’t gotten killed by anything in particular. They were still 9th against the rush this season and they were 17th in pass defense. But where as previous Philly defensive squads have been dominant, this year’s defense has been fairly ordinary. The Eagles were 12th in total defense this year and they finished 19th in scoring defense. Dallas not only has more talent on the defensive side of the ball, they may even have the more physical, hard nosed defense. It can even be argued that they no longer hold any real edge strategically without Johnson pushing the buttons and Dawkins acting as the quarterback of the secondary.

At this point you have to say that the Cowboys are the favorites, regardless of the recent history, which says that Dallas never wins in the playoffs and Philadelphia never loses in the first round. Of course, anything could happen in a game like this, with two good teams, and with so much familiarity between them. The Eagles may have lost the first two battles but they could easily come out on top this weekend. If McNabb is on his game and they get a few big plays on offense they could put some points on the board. Defensively, if they can confuse and harass Romo with pressure they could hold down the Dallas offense. It could be a totally different game than we saw last Sunday. Turnovers are always key but they could be enormous in this game. Early in last week’s game the Cowboys appeared on the verge of taking a two score lead when Romo tried to force a ball into a tight spot and the ball was knocked up into the air and intercepted, halting the Dallas drive just outside of the end zone. That sort of thing must be avoided this week. Romo must take care of the ball and the Cowboys must convert good drives into points because they can’t expect to stifle the Eagles offense completely for a second week in a row. I’m expecting Philly to play significantly better this week but I don’t see the Cowboys folding now that the playoffs are here. They have quieted critics and gained a lot of confidence with their success this winter and I don’t think that will all become irrelevant simply because it’s now win or go home. This should be a very competitive game and it could go either way but in the end I think the Cowboys will pull it out for their third win over the Eagles this season and their first playoff win since the late 90’s.

Sunday’s Early Game

Baltimore (+3.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but the Ravens beat the spread
Comment: This is the only first round game that will not be a rematch from the final week of the regular season but these teams did face off earlier in the year. In week 4, the Patriots were favored by just a point over Baltimore and the Ravens nearly came out of Foxboro with a win, eventually losing 27-21. The Pats will be the home team again this week and that is really the only reason to give them any kind of edge in this game. Baltimore had to win on the final Sunday of the regular season in order to get into the playoffs but all year long they have been thought of as being much better than their record indicated, as they played a difficult schedule and lost a number of close games. The Patriots had a much shakier season than many expected with Tom Brady back this year but they were actually in a pretty good spot going into last week’s action. Nobody was looking at the Patriots as one of the favorites in the playoffs and really nobody was talking about them being one of the “dangerous” teams. They were lying low and playing well and they might have been primed for a surprise run. Then disaster struck again, as Wes Welker, an invaluable part of New England’s attack, blew out his knee early in last week’s game in Houston. Suddenly the Pats went from being a true dark horse to being almost irrelevant as far as the drive for the Super Bowl trophy is concerned. I mean honestly, it’s hard to see how the loss of Welker can be anything less than devastating for the Patriots. And yet, they might still have the talent, the brains, and the heart to delay the inevitable for another week.

The Ravens won 3 of their final 4 games (2-1-1 ATS) to get into the playoffs with a 9-7 record (8-7-1 ATS) but they are just 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games. The Patriots finished 10-6 (7-7-2 ATS) and they had won 3 straight (2-1-1 ATS) before losing their final game to the Texans, in which they rested a lot of their regular players for much of the game. New England is just 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games. Both the Pats and the Ravens hovered in the “good but not great” range throughout the season and they appear to be very evenly matched. However, the Patriots were 8-0 at home this season (5-3 ATS), while the Ravens were just 3-5 on the road (3-4-1 ATS).

Everyone knew the Patriots would be a force offensively this season and they have put up some impressive numbers. New England was 3rd in passing; 12th in rushing; 3rd in total offense; and 6th in scoring offense. But all of those results have to be almost thrown out the window because perhaps (and I’m not sure anyone would agree with me on this) the most important piece of their offense will not be available in the postseason. I know that calling Welker the most important member of New England’s offense seems highly questionable, as Tom Brady and Randy Moss are hall-of-famers still playing at a very high level. But consider for a moment what Welker did in the offense last season with Matt Cassell as the quarterback. And with Welker out of the lineup the production of Moss has been greatly reduced. Welker is the guy who keeps the offense moving down the field and he is also the guy who frees up Moss and allows him to be a major force. The Patriots are well known for plugging guys in and getting the job done but it would be ridiculous to suggest that the offense will not be severely hampered by Welker’s absence.

New England’s defense has been considered suspect and vulnerable going all the way back to the season following their last Super Bowl win. At times this season the defense was a liability. During the hysteria following the “4th and 2” event in the Colts game, much was made of Bill Belichick’s apparent lack of faith in the defense. That defense was flat out exposed in New Orleans a few weeks later. However, New England’s defense was a bit better than most people seem to think this season. The Pats were in the top half of the league in both rush and pass defense. New England finished 11th in total defense and the Patriots actually allowed the 5th fewest points in the entire NFL this year. This isn’t a shutdown defense but it is capable. And you can never underestimate the defensive mind of Bela.

The Ravens got off to a great start this year, winning their first 3 games, before losing 3 in a row. But that 3 game skid seemed only to validate the Ravens, as they lost each game in heart breaking fashion to good teams. The Ravens have been contenders for years now but this team appeared to be different. It looked like the Ravens had gone through a major transition right under everyone’s noses. Throughout the decade the Ravens have won games with their defense and only asked their offense not to lose the game. Suddenly, the Ravens had a high scoring offense with a strong passing attack, while the famous Baltimore defense was having a hard time holding up its end. Through the first 6 games, the Ravens scored 31 points or more 4 times. What was just as shocking was that they had also allowed 24 points or more 4 times. It was time to put away the old conceptions of who the Ravens were. Or at least that’s what it seemed like at the time. As the year went on, however, things returned to normal to some extent. In their final 9 games, the Ravens only scored more than 21 points twice. On the other side, Baltimore held the opposition to 17 points or less in 8 of their final 10 games. When it was all said and done the Ravens were basically the same as they always have been: average on offense and very strong defensively. Once again, the Ravens were most successful running the ball, as they were the 5th best rushing team in the NFL. They were 18th in passing offense, which isn’t bad, but clearly the “Is Joe Flacco an elite quarterback?” questions were just as absurd as most sensible people thought back in October. Still, the Ravens are a better offensive team than they usually have been. They were 13th in total offense this year and 9th in scoring. Similarly, the defense isn’t quite as dominant as it has been in the past, but it’s still damn good. The Ravens ended up 3rd in total defense and 3rd in scoring defense. They were 5th in the NFL against the run and tied for 8th in pass defense. And yes, there is still a lot of attitude and a lot intimidation.

During the year, New England outscored opponents by an average of 26.7 to 17.8 for a scoring margin of +8.9; Baltimore outscored the opposition 24.4 to 16.3 on average for a scoring margin of +8.1. Baltimore has stronger numbers across the board defensively and the Ravens were also a much better running team. The Patriots were obviously much better in the other offensive categories but with Welker out of the lineup they will not have as big of an edge. It’s hard to quantify such a thing but you know they won’t be the same without him.

Even without Welker I still think Brady and the Pats will be able to do some things against Baltimore. There’s no doubt in my mind that the New England defense can hold its own against Baltimore’s offense. I think you’d have to give the Patriots an edge in the coaching department and they will be playing on their home turf where they have yet to lose this season. Even though so many of the veterans from those championship Patriots teams are gone, there is still an aura about the Patriots. They are just winners and they’ve proven to be more resourceful than any other professional sports team over the last decade. I believe this will be a very close game but I think the Patriots will win it in the end. I’m not sure how but I just have a gut feeling that they’ll get it done like they have so many times before.

Sunday’s Late Day Game

Green Bay (+2.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Packers pull off the upset
Comment: The final game of the first round is yet another rematch from week 17. Neither team had much at stake but the Packers were clearly the more interested team. Predictably the Cardinals were very cautious with their injury prone stars and as usual they didn’t seem to mind being completely outplayed in a game of little importance. Green Bay was a 3 point underdog but they rolled the home team 33-7 in a game that was not as close as the score indicated. The Cardinals have had no competition in the NFC West the last couple of years and they’ve rarely had to play with any sort of urgency. Give them credit: they have mastered the art of checking out and giving the appearance of a team that has no focus. And yet we now know that they are quite capable of coming back the next week and playing at a higher level than they have at any point previously. Despite precautions, the Cardinals couldn’t keep from suffering a few injuries to key players that could have an impact on the game this Sunday. Regardless, the Packers decided to try and stay sharp and continue the roll that they have been on for a couple of months now. Now the Cardinals will try and flip the switch and hope that the juice turns back on again.

The Packers are playing as well as any team heading into the playoffs. They won 7 of their last 8 games (7-0-1), with their only loss coming at Pittsburgh on a miracle TD by the Steelers. The Pack finished the year 11-5 (11-4-1 ATS) and they managed to go 5-3 on the road (6-2 ATS). They outscored opponents by an average of 28.8 to 18.6 for a +10.2 scoring differential. Arizona had things sewn up a long time ago, and while the Cardinals are not entering the playoffs on as much of a down swing as they were last season, they have hardly been on fire lately. The Cards went 3-3 over their final 6 games (3-3 ATS) to finish the year at 10-6 (9-7 ATS). They were just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. The strangest thing about the Cardinals’ season has been their mediocre play at home. They went just 4-4 on their home field this season (4-4 ATS), actually finishing with a better record on the road. They outscored opponents 23.4-20.3 on average, a scoring differential of just +3.1 per game.

I was definitely not a believer in the Packers during most of this season but I have been forced to change my stance. They haven’t faced the most difficult of schedules but they have continued to win and win convincingly. It’s hard to dismiss the numbers the Packers have put up. Statistically, they are in the top 10 in the league in most of the major categories. Early in the year Green Bay could not protect the quarterback but these problems were eventually solved and Aaron Rodgers began to light it up. The Packers finished 6th in total offense; 7th in passing offense; and 3rd in scoring. Last season the Packers had absolutely no running game and they showed little improvement at the start of this year. But eventually they found a running game and wound up 14th in the NFL in rushing. That wasn’t even the biggest surprise. The switch to a 3-4 defense didn’t appear to be going well at first and with injuries piling up in the secondary, it looked like defense would again be a weakness for the Packers this season. Not anymore. The Packers wound up 2nd in total defense; 7th in scoring defense; 5th in pass defense; and #1 in the NFL against the run. Soft schedule or no, those are impressive numbers.

The Cardinals were a play away from winning the Super Bowl last season. That still boggles the mind but it did happen. You thought perhaps the Cardinals would take the next step this year and play like a contender from start to finish. But that is not at all what happened. Just like last year, the Cards did what they needed to in order to win the NFC West and that’s about it. Actually, in some ways they were more mediocre this season than they were before the playoffs last year. After being a prolific passing offense last year, the Cards were a fairly ordinary passing team this year. They were only slightly better running the ball. When you put those two things together you come up with a mediocre offense. The Cards were just 12th in passing and 28th in rushing. They were 14th in total offense and 11th in scoring offense this year. The defense that finally played up to its potential during last year’s playoff run returned to mediocrity this season. Actually, the Cardinals defense was below average this year. They weren’t quite as bad defending the pass but they still finished 23rd in pass defense. Arizona was 17th in rush defense; 20th in total defense; and tied 14th in the NFL in points allowed.

If the Cardinals had lost to the Falcons in the first round of the playoffs last year and never went on that stunning run to the brink of a world championship I would be looking at this game differently. I wouldn’t even be considering the idea that Arizona might win. The Packers have been better than Arizona in every major statistical category this year. Not just better but significantly better. But we all saw what happened last year. Perhaps the Cardinals will be able to turn it on again. If they are able to flip the switch and play as well as they did last season they will be capable of beating anybody. On the other hand, if they play the way they have throughout the regular season they will not get out of the first round.

As we are all very much aware, if you don’t get pressure on Kurt Warner he is going to complete passes and move the ball down the field against your defense. Recall that early on the Packers’ most obvious weakness on defense was against the pass. If Warner has time, the Green Bay secondary could look helpless again, as even the most talented group of defensive backs and linebackers would struggle against Arizona’s pass catchers. Another key to Arizona’s success in the playoffs last year was the emergence of running game that had not been seen during the regular season. However, the Cardinals do not have an experienced back like Edgerrin James to hand the ball off to this time around. Even after what I saw last year, I just refuse to believe that the Cardinals will be able to do anything on the ground against a Green Bay defense that ended the year as the best in the NFL at stopping the run. When Arizona becomes one-dimensional it is easier to get pressure on Warner and slow down the air assault. Don’t forget that Green Bay ended up ranking 5th in pass defense. The key for Green Bay’s offense will also be protecting the QB. Just like Warner, when Rodgers has time to throw he is difficult to stop and the Packers also have a stable of talented receivers. Last year the Cardinals’ defensive front stepped its game up several levels in the playoffs and reeked havoc on opposing QB’s. That could very well happen again and perhaps Green Bay’s offensive line—which was the weakness of the offense at the beginning of the season—will struggle to protect Rodgers. If Arizona can not pressure Rodgers they will be in trouble. The Cardinals biggest weakness on defense was against the pass. Arizona was able to slow down the running game of the opposition during last year’s playoff run. The Cards may be able to shutdown Green Bay’s rushing attack, but unlike the Packer defense, the Arizona defense will have to honor the run. In other words: the Packers will be able to quash any attempts by Arizona to run the ball while still gearing up to defend the pass, but if the Cardinals try to gear up to defend the pass Green Bay will be able to run on them. The Packers will have success using play action because Arizona will have to respect the run. The play action will do nothing for Arizona.

The Packers were hit hard by injury early in the season but they are healthy heading into the postseason. Arizona, on the other hand, has some banged up players. Anquan Boldin’s availability for this Sunday’s game is very much in doubt. Boldin was hampered by injuries during much of the postseason last year and it didn’t seem to slow the Cardinals down but they could sorely miss him in a game like this. It’s an ankle injury, so even if Boldin feels good enough to try and play he might not be effective and he could easily re-injure it and not be able to play the rest of the game. Dominique Rodgers-Cromarite, the Cardinals best corner back, injured his knee last week and will almost certainly be less than 100% for Sunday’s game. Calais Campbell, a starting DE for the Cards, has badly injured thumb, and while that may not sound like a big deal for a pass rusher, playing with only one good hand could be a major problem for him. While none of these injuries are too serious, they could end up having an impact on the game.

The one wild card in this game is Larry Fitzgerald. If he puts on a show reminiscent of last year’s postseason he could be a difference maker. You can only stop Fitzgerald to a certain extent. He’s going to win some jump balls and make some great plays but if he’s Arizona’s only threat it shouldn’t be enough to win the game. Arizona is at home and the crowd actually was a factor last year in the Cardinals’ wild card round game against the Falcons. But Atlanta was playing with a rookie QB and I don’t believe Aaron Rodgers will have the same problems. I think Green Bay will be to put up points on Arizona. I think the Cards will have some success on offense but eventually Warner will make some mistakes and Green Bay will start to take over. I see the Packers pulling away in the second half and winning this game by more than a touchdown.