The NFL Blog: 2009 Conference Championship Round Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (2-2); Straight Up (3-1).
Season: Vs. Spread (124-133-6); Straight Up (174-89).

Divisional Round Review: Still can’t break .500 ATS but at least I picked the winners in 3 of 4 games. The games sucked for the most part. The last game was competitive but I was disappointed that the Chargers couldn’t give us 1 vs. 2 in both conferences.

Conference Championship Games Preview: I knew we were going to see the Colts and Jets again. I didn’t think it would be for the AFC Championship but I knew at some point the Colts were going to have to come face to face with their forfeit back in week 16. As for the NFC, we got the match-up that we all wanted to see after all.

AFC Championship Game

New York Jets (+7.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Jets beat the spread
Comment: So here we are again. A few weeks after the Colts lay down and gave up their shot at a perfect season--while at the same time allowing the Jets to stay alive in the playoff race—the two teams will meet again at Lucas Oil Stadium. Once again the stakes will be high. This time we have to assume that the Colts will actually try and win. The Jets stayed hot last week, pulling off a huge upset of the Chargers on the road. The Colts responded to critics in their first real game in 3 weeks, blowing out the Ravens at home. Now, will Karma catch up to the Colts? Or will the clock finally strike midnight on the Cinderella Jets?

Whether you thought the Jets deserved to be in the playoffs or not you have to admit they deserve to be in this game. The Jets are now 11-7 on the year (11-7 against the spread) and 7-3 on the road (7-3 ATS). New York has outscored opponents by an average score of 21.6 to 14.7 for an average differential of +6.9. Interestingly enough, the Jets have an even better differential on the road, outscoring opponents by an average score of 23.2 to 15.4 for a differential of +7.8. The Jets are obviously hot. They have won 4 straight (4-0 ATS) and they are 7-1 in their last 8 (7-1 ATS). They’ve won 4 straight on the road (4-0 ATS) and if you count their game against the Bills in Toronto they have won 5 straight on the road (5-0 ATS). This season, the Jets are now 5-2 straight up in games in which they have been underdogs (5-2 ATS). Over the last 2 years, the Jets have gone 8-3 straight up when playing as underdogs (8-3 ATS).

The Colts shook off the rust and the doubts last week to reach the AFC Championship Game as the #1 seed. Indy is now 15-2 on the year (11-5-1 ATS) and the Colts are 8-1 at home (4-4-1 ATS). The Colts have outscored opponents 25.6 to 18.2 on average for an average differential of +7.4. Somewhat surprisingly, the Colts have been less dominant at home, outscoring opponents 23.4 to 17.7 on average for an average scoring differential of +5.7. If you grant that the Colts really did not try to win either of their last 2 regular season games, you could say that the Colts are really still undefeated. Outside of those 2 games, the Colts are 15-0 and they are 11-3-1 ATS in those games. The Colts are 4-0 straight up this year in games in which they were favored by a TD or more (2-2 ATS). Over the last 2 years the Colts are 7-1 straight up when playing as at least a 7 point favorite (just 3-5 ATS).

There are not a lot of new injuries to discuss. The Jets will not have DE Shaun Ellis at 100% this week. Ellis broke a hand early in the game against San Diego and his effectiveness was limited the rest of the way. He will play the Championship Game with a protective cast on the hand but you’d have to think it will hamper him a bit, considering how much defensive ends use their hands. There are a few other players banged up on both sides but nothing else new for the most part.

This match-up really comes down to the quarterbacks and the defenses. That might be the case in most games but it’s especially true for this game. You could substitute just about any quarterback in the league for Peyton Manning and the Jets would be favored. If you put a more experienced QB in place of Mark Sanchez, the spread would probably be 3 or so. The Jets are the more impressive team when looking at the numbers and it’s not close. But the Colts just keep winning when it counts. Offensively, the Colts were a better team during the regular season. Indy ranked 7th in scoring and 9th in total offense, while the Jets ranked 17th in scoring and 20th in total offense. The two offenses were mirror opposites of one another. Indy was the #2 passing offense in the league but finished dead last in rushing. The Jets were 31st in passing but they had the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. New York was tied 10th in fewest sacks allowed but then again they didn’t throw it much. The Colts threw the ball a ton and still allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL. The Colts also led the league in 3rd down conversion percentage, while the Jets were 20th in that category on offense. Clearly, you’d have to give the edge to the Colts on offense. However, teams built on the pass have stumbled more often than strong rushing offenses in the postseason. And Mark Sanchez has obviously grown as a QB from the first week of the season until now.

On the defensive side of the ball it is New York that has the dramatic advantage. While the Colts ranked 8th in scoring defense during the regular season, they were just 18th in total defense. The Jets were #1 in the NFL in scoring defense and #1 in total defense. The Jets finished #8 against the run and #1 in the NFL against the pass. The Colts were 14th against the pass and 24th against the run. The Colts finished tied for 16th in sacks, while the Jets were tied for 18th. On 3rd down, the Jets have a huge edge. New York was #1 in the NFL defensively on 3rd down, while the Colts were 31st in that category.

Both teams were above board in turnover margin. The Colts were +2, while the Jets were +1. I think the Jets have a clear edge in special teams. The Colts do not cover kickoffs well and they don’t punt much so there’s always a chance for a mistake in that area. The Jets are a good kick return team. If the game comes down to a field goal the Jets would have the edge, as the Colts are without Adam Vinatieri, while Jay Feely has had a strong year for New York.

Clearly the Colts will benefit from playing at home. Their offense will run better on their own turf with no crowd noise to distract them. Mark Sanchez will have to deal with a much louder crowd than he has faced over the last few weeks. However, the Jets don’t seem to mind playing on the road. The offense is built on the run so crowd noise isn’t as much of a factor. Also, the defense is not as reliant on getting a good jump on the snap because it’s all based on a delayed blitz scheme. The Jets are playing with absolutely no pressure. The Colts are the ones playing with something to lose. If things don’t go well, the crowd could get nervous and the Colts may tighten up as well. The Jets are well coached on both sides of the ball. The Colts have a genius under center. This game could well come down to how successful the Jets are at confusing Peyton Manning.

We will never know what would have happened if the Colts had gone for the undefeated season against the Jets back in week 16. While the Colts had controlled things for the most part prior to the starters being benched, the score was only 15-10. It doesn’t really matter now. But we have seen Manning have more success than most against New York’s defense, even if it was only for 6 possessions. I think Manning is going to have to play a brilliant game this week for the Colts to win. I don’t see Indy getting much on the ground. I think the Colts will have more success than most teams throwing on New York but I think the Jets will turn Manning over at least once and get off the field on 3rd downs much more often than other defenses. On the other side, I think the Jets will be able to run all over Indy’s defense. If these two teams had played last week I would have called for an upset victory by the Jets. But the Colts showed no ill-effects of taking the foot off the gas last week. I believe the Jets have a chance to win this game because I think it will be low scoring and close late. But I’m going to pick Indy to win by a field goal and get back to the Super Bowl.


NFC Championship Game

Minnesota (+4) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Vikings beat the spread
Comment: Well, now that the Cowboys and Cardinals have been vanquished, the match-up we all expected months ago will finally take place on Sunday. Brett Favre is again one game from the Super Bowl, only this time he won’t be playing on the Frozen Tundra. Far from it. The Superdome has been the site of many a big game but never before has it played host to the NFC Championship Game.

The Vikings stumbled a bit towards the end of the regular season but they wound up grabbing the #2 seed in the NFC and they enter this game 13-4 on the season (10-6-1 ATS). However, the Vikings have been a much more average team on the road this season, going 4-4 away from home to this point (4-4 ATS). The Vikings have outscored opponents by an average score of 29.6 to 18.5 this season for a +11.1 scoring differential. But that mark falls dramatically on the road, where the Vikes have outscored opponents 26.0 to 23.5 on average for a +2.5 average differential. Since starting the year 10-1, the Vikings have gone 3-3 over their last 6 games (3-3 ATS). After winning their first 3 road games easily, the Vikings are now 1-4 in their last 5 away from home (1-4 ATS). They have lost 3 straight on the road entering this game (0-3 ATS).

The Saints were the top team in the NFL for most of this season but they ended the year on a 3 game losing skid. The Saints silenced a lot of doubters with their blowout win over the Cardinals last week; a performance reminiscent of the first half of the season when they looked like the Greatest Show on Turf. The Saints are now 14-3 overall on the season (9-8 ATS) and 7-2 at home (5-4 ATS). New Orleans has outscored opponents 32.6 to 20.9 on average this year for a +11.7 scoring differential per game. In home games, that margin grows to +12.5, as the Saints have outscored the opposition 33.2 to 20.7 at the Superdome. The Saints rebounded in a big way last week but they are still just 1-3 in their last 4 (1-3 ATS) and they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.

There aren’t a lot of new injuries to discuss for these two teams. But it’s important to note that both teams benefited greatly from the bye week. DE Ray Edwards tweaked a knee for the Vikings during the game with Dallas but he should be able to play on Sunday. For the Saints, Reggie Bush looked fantastic and fully healthy for the first time in months last week. He will be needed again on Sunday.

This game features a match-up of two of the most explosive, high powered, and balanced offensive attacks in the game. The Saints ranked 1st in scoring offense and 1st in total offense this season. The Vikings were 2nd in scoring offense and 5th in total offense. While the Saints have had a reputation for being a dangerous passing team ever since Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans, the biggest change this season has been in their willingness to run the ball. The Saints were 4th in the NFL in passing and 6th in rushing. The Vikings also had a balanced attack but they weren’t nearly as good on the ground as most expected. Minnesota ended up 8th in the NFL in passing and just 13th in rushing. Minnesota’s offensive line was highly touted but they struggled to protect at times, finishing tied for 15th in sacks allowed. The Saints, on the other hand, kept Brees clean all season, finishing with the 4th fewest sacks allowed in the NFL. Both of these teams were great on 3rd down. The Saints were 6th in the NFL converting on 3rd down; the Vikings were 5th. When they have everybody healthy, the Saints are almost impossible to stop on offense. The Vikings have not run the ball well lately but Favre has now had a full season to gel with his receivers and they appear to be clicking at the moment.

Defensively the Vikings have an advantage, though perhaps not as much as some would think. To put things in an overly simple way: the Vikings defense has been good but not as good as we expected; the Saints defense hasn’t been great but it’s been much better than we expected. Early on in the season, the Saints defense was making plays and really changing the way people looked at the team. As the year went on, however, the defense started to be more of a liability. It’s not like the offense has to score 50 points a game in order to overcome the shortcomings of the defense. The defense is actually capable of winning the game for New Orleans if they get turnovers. Also, there’s no question that injuries started to take a toll on the defense as the year went on. But the Saints have to turn the ball over and they have to get stops on 3rd down and in the red zone in order to be effective defensively. For the Vikings, it’s all about getting heat on the quarterback. Being stout against the run is a given for Minnesota and they have one of the top pass rushers in the game in Jared Allen. But when quarterbacks have time to throw against Minnesota they can move the ball, as the Vikings are not as strong in the secondary. Overall, the Vikings have the edge statistically on the defensive side of the ball. Minnesota was 10th in scoring defense and 6th in total defense this season; the Saints were just 20th in scoring defense and 25th in total defense. The Saints ranked 21st against the run and 26th against the pass. The Vikings were the #2 defense against the run this year but just 19th against the pass. The Saints finished tied for 13th in sacks this season but they are without Charles Grant throughout the playoffs. The Vikings are the top sack team in the NFL. Also, the Saints were just 14th defensively on 3rd down, while the Vikings were 3rd.

Both teams had more takeaways than turnovers this year but it was a bigger part of the success for the Saints. New Orleans was +11 in turnover margin this season; 3rd best in the NFL. The Vikings finished +6 in turnover margin, tied 8th in the NFL, and they would have been much better if not for the struggles of star running back Adrian Peterson. I think the Vikings have a slight edge in the special teams department. The Saints have struggled covering kicks this season and the Vikings have some dangerous return men. If the game comes down to the kickers the Vikings would have a major advantage, as Ryan Longwell has been one of the best in the game this year, while the Saints have struggled to find a dependable kicker.

While in general I think the media overrates the home field advantage that the Saints have at the Superdome, it should certainly help them this Sunday. It seems hard to deny that the Vikings are a significantly weaker team on the road. I think both teams will have success moving the ball. In my opinion, this game will come down to the red zone and which team does a better job taking advantage of scoring opportunities. Also, at some point if Adrian Peterson does not step up and have an impact on the game, Favre is going to force the issue and get into trouble. I think these teams are close to equal and if the game was played on a neutral field I would give the edge to Minnesota based on their defense. But the game will be played in New Orleans on Sunday and I’m picking the Saints to win it by a field goal.