The NFL Blog: 2009 Super Bowl Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (1-1); Straight Up (2-0).
Season: Vs. Spread (125-134-6); Straight Up (176-89).

Conference Championship Games Review: The games were entertaining, if not completely satisfying. On the AFC side, I still would have liked to see the Colts at least try to finish the regular season and the postseason undefeated. On the NFC side, I think the Saints deserved to win because they took advantage of Minnesota’s mistakes, but I’m not sure the best team won. I’m glad I picked the winner of both games correctly this year. As for the spread, I haven’t been better than .500 all year so I don’t know why anything would change in the playoffs.

Super Bowl Preview: If the game is actually played at some point I just hope I’m still alive and have all of my wits about me when it happens. At the very least, I hope the old folk’s home where I’m living has the game on T.V. I think we’ll have a very exciting and competitive game. I’m rooting for the Colts because I don’t want to see the Saints win a Super Bowl before the Falcons do.

Super Bowl XLIV

New Orleans (+5) vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Saints beat the spread
Records and Trends: The Saints are now 15-3 overall this season and 9-9 against the spread. The Colts are 16-2 overall and 12-5-1 ATS. New Orleans has outscored opponents by an average score of 32.56 to 21.28 for a +11.28 average scoring differential. The Colts have outscored opponents by an average score of 25.89 to 18.17 for an average margin of victory of +7.72.

The Saints won their first 13 games before losing their final 3 to finish the regular season 13-3. The Saints did not have the #1 seed in the NFC wrapped up until the final week of the regular season so they were putting full effort into their first 16 games. After finishing the season on a 3 game losing skid, the Saints beat the Cardinals and Vikings to reach the Super Bowl. They are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games.

The Colts won their first 14 games before losing their final 2 to finish the year 14-2. The Colts had the #1 seed in the AFC wrapped up after week 15 and they promptly rested their starters in weeks 16 and 17, leading to their first 2 losses of the season. The Colts ended the regular season with back to back losses but they beat the Ravens and Jets in the playoffs to reach the Super Bowl. The Colts have not been beaten this year when their starters played the entire game.

Both teams will be playing their first game on a neutral field this Sunday. For what it’s worth, the Saints were 7-1 away from home this season (4-4 ATS), outscoring opponents 32.0-21.1 on average for a +10.9 average scoring margin. The Colts were 7-1 away from home this season (7-1 ATS), outscoring opponents 28.1-18.9 on average for a +9.2 average scoring differential. Both teams were undefeated on the road in games in which they played their starters for the entire game.

The Saints will be underdogs for just the 2nd time this season. Their only other game as an underdog came in week 17 when they were expected to rest their starters. They were 10 point underdogs at Carolina and lost by 13. The Colts will be favorites for the 17th time in 19 games. They are 15-1 straight up as favorites and 11-4-1 ATS as favorites. Their only loss straight up as a favorite came in week 16 when they pulled their starters in the 2nd half against the Jets.

This will be a pair of dome/turf teams playing outdoors, on grass. The Colts are 5-1 outdoors this season (5-1 ATS) and 6-0 on grass (6-0 ATS). The only loss straight up or ATS for the Colts outdoors came in week 17 when they rested their starters against the Bills. The Saints are 5-1 outdoors this season (4-2 ATS) and 3-1 on grass (3-1 ATS). The only loss straight up for the Saints outdoors or on grass was in week 17 when they rested all of their starters against the Panthers.

New Orleans Playoff Review

Divisional Round

The Saints opened the playoffs hosing the Cardinals as 7 point favorites in the Divisional Playoffs. New Orleans won by 31 points, 45-14, and it probably could have been worse. New Orleans dominated the game. After falling down 7-0 on the first play of the game, the Saints scored 21 straight and led 21-7 at the end of 1. It was 21-14 midway through the 2nd quarter, but the Saints scored 2 TD in the final 7 minutes of the half to take a 35-14 lead into halftime. New Orleans shutout the Cards 10-0 in the 3rd to enter the 4th quarter leading 45-14. The 4th quarter was scoreless. New Orleans scored the final 24 points of the game, outscoring the Cards 45-7 after Arizona’s quick score to open the game.

New Orleans had 12 more 1st downs than Arizona (27-15), 8 more rushing 1st downs (10-2), and held the Cards to just 1 for 8 on 3rd down, while the Saints went 7 for 13 on 3rd down conversions. The Saints out-gained Arizona by 59 yards (418-359), out-rushing the Cards by 70 (171-101). The Saints did not turn the ball over and they had 2 takeaways, recovering a fumble and intercepting a pass. New Orleans had the game’s only defensive or special teams touchdown. The Saints had the ball for 13 minutes more than the Cardinals.

Perhaps the biggest key to New Orleans’ victory over the Cards was the play of Kurt Warner. Warner was not on his game. It’s possible that Warner was worn out from a full season of play and the back and forth game against the Packers in the Wild Card Round that went into overtime. Also, New Orleans was able to put pressure on Warner and a key hit in the first half left Warner dazed the rest of the way. Warner fumbled a snap, took a sack, threw 2 interceptions (1 was wiped out due to a penalty), and was hit several times.

After going ahead on a huge play to open the game, the Cardinals fell into a deep hole with a string of catastrophic plays. After giving up a 70 yard TD run on the first play of the game, the Saints shutdown the run, giving up just 31 rushing yards the rest of the way. The Saints forced Warner to settle for short throws underneath the coverage. They limited Larry Fitzgerald to just 6 catches for 77 yards and a long of 16 yards.

The Saints had a huge edge in special teams in all areas: field goals; kickoffs; kick returns; punts; and punt returns. Reggie Bush was huge for the Saints as a returner, running back, and receiver. New Orleans rushed for 171 yards, picking up 10 first downs on the ground. Offensively, the Saints were 7 for 13 on 3rd down. Drew Brees was never sacked and New Orleans never fumbled the ball.

Turnovers were huge. Arizona may have been tired following their long game with the Packers, while the Saints looked rested. The Saints actually missed a few chances to make the score even worse. Arizona lost Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to an injury and they definitely missed Anquan Boldin in this game.

NFC Championship Game

The Saints were 4 point favorites at home against the Vikings in the Championship Game and they ended up winning by just 3 points in OT, 31-28. In many ways, the Saints were outplayed by the Vikings, but in other ways New Orleans played a better game. The game was back and forth throughout. Minnesota scored first but New Orleans came right back to tie it and the score was 14-14 at the half. The Saints took their first lead early in the 3rd quarter but the Vikings tied it and the score was 21-21 going to the 4th. New Orleans went up 7 again early in the 4th but the Vikes tied it at 28 with just under 5 minutes to play. The Vikings had a chance to win the game in regulation but they were never able to attempt a game winning FG and it went to overtime with the score still 28-28. The Saints won the coin toss and drove down for a FG to win it, 31-28.

Statistically the Saints were pretty much dominated in the game. The Vikings had twice as many 1st downs (31-15) and out-gained the Saints by 218 yards (475-257). The Saints were just 3 for 12 on 3rd down conversions (1 for 1 on 4th down) while the Vikings went 7 for 12. Minnesota out-rushed the Saints by 97 yards (165-68), averaging 4.6 yards per rush while holding the Saints to 3.0 yards per carry. The Vikings had 121 more yards passing (310-189). Minnesota had the games only sack and held the ball for 9 minutes more than the Saints. New Orleans had 56 more penalty yards.

The key to the game was Minnesota mistakes. The Vikings committed 5 turnovers and went just 4 for 6 in the red zone. The Saints committed only 1 turnover and went 3 for 3 in the red zone. New Orleans was really fortunate not to have more turnovers but the Vikings could also have committed even more turnovers. The fumbles by the Vikes made things harder and killed drives. Brett Favre’s 2 picks were also costly. While the Vikings were penalized less than the Saints, the 12-men in the huddle penalty on the final drive of regulation, and a pass interference penalty on the Saints’ OT drive were both humongous.
The Saints won the special teams match-up again, holding the advantage in field goals, kick returns, punting, and kickoffs.

The Saints struggled to convert even on 3rd down and manageable. Reggie Bush was very well contained. Pierre Thomas was effective at times running the ball. Also, the Saints did a very good job containing Jarred Allen. On the other side, New Orleans shutdown Percy Harvin in the return game, as a receiver, and as a runner. For Minnesota, Favre was harassed and battered constantly.

Indianapolis Playoff Review

Divisional Round

The Colts opened the playoffs as 6.5 point favorites at home against the Ravens. They won easily, 20-3. The Colts took a 3-0 lead less than 5 minutes into the game but the Ravens came back to tie it late in the 1st quarter. Indy finally got into the end zone with less than 2 minutes left in the half, taking a 10-3. The Colts scored again just 3 seconds before halftime to go up 17-3 and basically put the game away. After a scoreless 3rd quarter, the Colts made it 20-3 early in the 4th and they went on to win by the same score.

The Colts didn’t exactly dominate the game but they were in control throughout. Indy had 10 more 1st downs than Baltimore (22-12) and held the ball for 8 more minutes. The Colts turned it over only once and turned the Ravens over 4 times. Baltimore was charged with 39 more penalty yards and the Colts went 2 for 3 in the red zone while holding the Ravens to 0 for 2. Indy was also 1 for 1 on 4th down while the Ravens were 0 for 2.

Indy’s 14-0 run at the end of the 1st half was absolutely gigantic. The Colts rattled Joe Flacco and the defense held in the red zone and on 3rd and 4th down. Baltimore committed key penalties and key turnovers. The Colts played good special teams and went on long drives, eating up the clock. Finally, Ed Reed made 2 picks that were negated by penalties and a fumble, and this was obviously humongous.

AFC Championship Game

The Colts were 8 point favorites at home against the upstart Jets and wound up winning by 13, 30-17. For a while it looked like the Jets might just pull off another stunning upset but the Colts eventually took over the game and put New York to bed. After a scoreless 1st quarter, the Colts took a 3-0 lead on the 1st play of the 2nd. The Jets responded by scoring a TD to take their first lead on the first play of their ensuing possession. Indy cut the lead to 7-6 midway through the 2nd but the Jets scored another TD to make it 14-6 with less than 5 minutes to play in the half. After forcing a fumble, the Jets were in position to go up big on the Colts but they settled for a field goal to make it 17-6 with 2:11 left before halftime. 58 seconds later, the Colts finally got into the end zone, cutting the score to 17-13 at intermission. Midway through the 3rd quarter the Colts scored again to retake the lead, 20-17. Midway through the 4th the Colts put the game away with another TD. Indy tacked on a FG with 2:30 left and went on to win, 30-17. Following New York’s FG that made it 17-6 Jets, the Colts outscored New York 24-0 the rest of the way, shutting out the Jets 17-0 in the 2nd half.

The Colts had 10 more 1st downs than the Jets (27-17) and out-gained them by 58 yards. Indy somehow managed to win the rushing battle, holding the Jets to 86 yards on the ground while rushing for 101. The Colts had just 5 yards in penalties, while the Jets were hit with 46 yards in penalties.

Peyton was hit a few times early but he was well protected for the most part and eventually he figured out the Jets defense. The Colts got some semblance of a ground game for one of the few times all season. Pierre Garcon had a huge game for the Colts. Also, Matt Stover out-kicked Jay Feely. On the other side, the Jets were crushed when Shonn Greene was limited due to injury. From then on the rushing game was stymied. The Jets did get some big plays and a surprisingly good game in the passing department. Some key penalties really hurt the Jets. Also, holding the Jets out of the end zone was key for the Colts. The Jets had a chance because of Indy settling early and because of some big plays and a key Indy fumble. But the game turned when the Jets settled for a FG and the Colts scored to cut the deficit to 4 at halftime.

Super Bowl Team Previews:

New Orleans Saints

Offensively, the Saints were the top team in the NFL this season. Led by the most accurate passer in the game today in Drew Brees, the Saints led the NFL in total offense and scoring offense. Brees has a pack of talented pass catchers at his disposal, and the Saints finished 4th in passing yards, tied 1st in pass touchdowns, 2nd in QB rating, and 1st in completion percentage. Brees was given excellent protection by a very solid offensive line that yielded just 20 sacks this season, 4th best in the NFL. None of this was a surprise. It was New Orleans’ ability to balance the passing attack with an effective running game that really brought the Saints offense to another level. The Saints were 6th in the NFL in rushing this season and tied for 3rd in rushing TD’s. New Orleans was 6th in the NFL in 3rd down %.

On defense, the Saints relied on pressure, keeping opponents out of the end zone, and most of all on turnovers. Overall, the numbers are not pretty. The Saints finished 25th in total defense and 20th in scoring defense. The Saints were 21st in rush defense and 26th against the pass. However, New Orleans was one of the best teams in the NFL at forcing turnovers. The Saints intercepted 26 passes, 3rd best in the NFL, and forced 39 total turnovers, 2nd most in the NFL. The Saints recorded 35 sacks and held opponents to a 57.5 % completion percentage, tied 4th in the NFL. The New Orleans defense held opposing QB’s to the 3rd worst passer rating in the NFL this season. New Orleans allowed only 15 passing TD’s, 5th best in the NFL.

The New Orleans special teams game has some strengths and weaknesses. The Saints punt and kick coverage teams were among the worst in the NFL this season, but they did get a lot of kickoff touch backs and punt return fair catches. The Saints field goal kicking has been decent but long kicks are a question mark. Although Reggie Bush can be explosive, the Saints were not a good punt return team this year. The kick return team, however, was one of the best in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts marched right on this season, as Peyton Manning ended all argument as to who the best QB in the NFL is at this point. Some inexperienced receivers joined Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne this season and by the end of the year it was perhaps the best group of pass catchers in the NFL. The Colts were 9th in total offense and 7th in scoring offense this season. The passing attack was deadly as always, as the Colts finished 2nd in the NFL in passing, 4th in completion percentage, 9th in QB rating, tied 1st in pass TD’s, 1st in passing 1st Downs. The offensive line and Manning’s intelligence and poise combined to make Indy the most difficult team in the NFL to record a sack against. Despite at times being very one-dimensional, the Colts allowed a league low 13 sacks this season. This was not a balanced attack. The Colts finished dead last in the NFL in rushing and rushing touchdowns. Still, the Colts were #1 in 3rd down conversion percentage and lost just 5 fumbles all season.

On defense, the Colts were a “bend but don’t break” unit as usual. They relied on getting pressure on the QB with their defensive ends, tackling well, and keeping the opposition out of the end zone. The Colts were 18th in total defense this season, finishing 24th against the run, and 14th against the pass. Remarkably, the Colts were 8th in scoring defense this season, allowing just over 19 points per game. The Colts recorded 34 sacks and forced 26 turnovers. On the down side, the Colts were 31st in the NFL defensively on 3rd down, giving up 1st downs 45 % of the time.

The Colts were solid overall on special teams this season. They were average punting and covering punts. Though Matt Stover has taken over for Adam Vinatieri as place kicker, the Colts have remained solid on field goals. The Colts were terrible covering kickoffs but they did get plenty of touchbacks. The Colts are not going to scare anyone returning kicks or punts.

Team Comparisons

Passing Offense
Advantage: Draw
Comments: These are the two premier passing attacks in the NFL. During the regular season, the Saints had the edge in completion percentage and rating. The Colts had the edge in passing yards per game, completions of 20+ yards, completions of 40+ yards, passing 1st downs, and sacks allowed. The Saints threw 7 fewer interceptions. Both teams threw 34 TD’s. One thing to consider is that the Colts took off the last 6 quarters of the season, while the Saints did not rest players until the final week.

Rushing Offense
Advantage: New Orleans (significantly)
Comments: The Saints finished 6th in the NFL in rushing yards this season, averaging 131.6 yards per game on the ground. The Colts averaged 80.9 rushing yards per game in 2009, dead last in the NFL. The Saints scored 21 rushing TD’s (3rd best in the NFL), while the Colts scored 15. The Saints were tied 4th in rushing 1st downs; the Colts were last in that category. The Saints averaged 4.5 yards per rush, 7th in the NFL; the Colts averaged just 3.5 yards per rush, 30th in the NFL. The Saints had 14 rushes for 20+ yards; the Colts had only 6 such rushes.

Overall Offense
Advantage: Draw
Comments: The Saints led the NFL in total offense and scoring offense while the Colts finished 9th in yards per game and 7th in scoring. The Saints were 2nd in 1st downs; the Colts were 5th. But the Colts were the #1 offense in the NFL on 3rd down, while the Saints were 6th. The Colts also had 4 fewer turnovers and were #2 in fewest offensive penalty yards. Most importantly, the Colts have Peyton Manning.

Passing Defense
Advantage: Saints
Comments: During the regular season, the Colts had the edge in passing yards allowed but that was about it. The Saints had the edge in opponents completion percentage, opponents QB rating, passing TD’s allowed, and passing 1st downs allowed. The Colts allowed fewer completions of 20+ yards and 40+ yards but the Saints had 10 more INT and had 1 more sack.

Rush Defense
Advantage: Colts
Comments: The Saints allowed less rushing yards than the Colts but Indy allowed less yards per attempt, less rushing TD’s, and less rushing 1st downs. The Colts also gave up fewer runs of 20+ yards and 40+ yards.

Overall Defense
Advantage: Draw
Comments: While the Colts had the edge in scoring defense and total defense, the Saints ability to force turnovers is hard to ignore. New Orleans recorded 39 takeaways and scored 8 defensive touchdowns. The sack numbers are about equal. New Orleans was much better getting off the field on 3rd down.

Special Teams
Advantage: Draw
Comments: Both teams are vulnerable to big returns. The Saints kick return game is strong. I give the Colts a slight edge in place kicking. For the Saints, Reggie Bush is both a weapon and a liability as a punt returner.

Super Bowl Forecast

Depending on the weather, I think this will be a fairly high scoring game. I think it will be close throughout and I think it could go down to the wire. The Colts should be focused for this game and I don’t believe they will be overconfident. At the same time, I don’t think the Saints will get much motivation from being the underdog. I think there’s a chance that the Saints will lose some amount of intensity by the time this game finally gets underway. This is the greatest season in New Orleans sports history, regardless of what happens on Sunday. For the Colts, everything is riding on this game. If Indy wins, the season will be a success and they will be able to justify not going for the perfect season. If the Colts lose, the season will be a total failure. There’s no question that the Colts are the more desperate team. The Saints may be a bit nervous early on and the Colts need to take advantage of any New Orleans mistakes.

Offensively, I think the Colts will have a lot of success. I believe Manning will carve up the New Orleans defense and the Colts will convert 3rd downs and string together long drives. I also think the Colts will get a few big plays and I don’t see the Saints touching Manning. However, I think the Saints will be able to force at least 1 turnover. The running game for the Colts will not be a factor in my opinion.

I also think the Saints will have a good game on offense as well. They should be able to convert 3rd downs against the Indy defense and get some big plays. I don’t see Indy putting much pressure on Brees, especially with Dwight Freeny out or severely limited by injury. But I do think the Colts will recover a fumble or stop the Saints on a 4th down.

The Saints should have the edge in the return game but I think the Colts will end up having a major edge in the kicking game. As always, penalties, turnovers, and performance in the red zone should be huge. In the end, I think the Colts will commit more mistakes and control the ball longer. New Orleans will make some big plays but it won’t be enough to win it. I like the Colts to win it, 31-28.