Saturday, June 12, 2010

The Braves Blog: Improving the Team

Possibilities of Improving the Team

This Braves team has done pretty damn well so far, winning 35 of their first 62 games. However, it’s going to be very tough to get back to the postseason. It’s likely that the Braves will have to make some improvements in order to win the East or win the wild card. They could improve without making any moves at all. A great number of players currently on the active roster are not yet playing as well as they normally do (McCann, Chipper Jones, Yunel Escobar, etc.). But it’s interesting to think of changes that the Braves might be able to make in order to get better.

Team Needs and Weaknesses

It’s not blatantly obvious but if you really look at the situation, the Braves aren’t exactly great in any area. The lineup has several weak spots and is severely limited by left handed pitching. They are a generally average fielding team. The Braves don’t have a true “ace” starting pitcher and the back end of the rotation is downright mediocre. In addition, due to a number of factors, the Braves have had to use their bullpen a lot. This frequent use of the bullpen--and a reliance on a handful of trusted relievers--is eventually going to thin out an otherwise rock solid relief core.

Clearly there is room for improvement in a number of areas. At this point, the Braves are in pretty good shape in terms of their everyday lineup and their bench. The only major trouble spot is in the outfield, where they need to stabilize the left field situation, and more importantly, find an everyday center fielder. They could really use another right handed bat. Pitching wise, the Braves could definitely use another solid reliever or two, preferably a right hander. While a top line starting pitcher would certainly be a big help, it isn’t the most pressing need. Middle relief help may not seem like a pressing need at the moment, but I believe it will become one in time. With these things in mind, let’s look at how the Braves might be able to address some of these issues.

Help from the Side

The quickest and most likely way for the Braves to improve is simply by getting back some of their injured players. It didn’t take long for Takashi Saito’s absence in the 8th inning/setup man role to disrupt the Atlanta bullpen. Obviously, getting Saito back from the DL on (hopefully) June 19th will immediately make the Braves bullpen much stronger. The starting rotation should get a similar boost from the return of Jair Jurrjens (hopefully) in a couple of weeks. JJ was not off to a great start to the year before he hurt his hamstring, and there were those who expected his performance to drop off this season, but Jurrjens is certainly a solid middle of the rotation starter. He might not match last year’s numbers, but in his 2 years with the Braves he has gone 27-20 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 65 starts. There’s no reason to think he won’t return to something close to that upon his return. He will give the Braves innings and give the team a chance to win on most nights.

The bullpen will also be aided by the return of Jurrjens, as one of the current starting pitchers will be moved to the pen. While Kris Medlen has certainly proven to be a capable starting pitcher, and I believe his future will eventually be as a starter, I think it will be Medlen that goes to the bullpen and not Kenshin Kawakami. The main reason is that Medlen’s tools just seem to be more of an asset in relief than Kawakami’s. Medlen has also had more experience in a bullpen role and has already shown that he can be successful in that capacity. And the Braves could use another right hander for the 6th, 7th, and 8th innings. Kawakami is 0-8 but he is an acceptable 5th starter. While Medlen might be more valuable as a starter, he does still have significant value as a reliever. Conversely, I don’t think KK would have much value at all in the bullpen.

Offensively, the Braves should also get a boost from a returning player, as Matt Diaz is expected to be back sometime later this summer. Matty was off to a slow start before his injury, but Diaz has proven over the last few years that he can hit. In 1350 plate appearances with the Braves, Diaz has hit .308/.355/.453/.808. That’s a pretty significant sample size. Matty will produce when fully healthy. And Matty’s presence will be particularly helpful to this year’s team, as he is a right handed batter that murders left handed pitching. This could work out very well, as his potential platoon mate in left, Eric Hinske, is a left handed batter who handles righties but is very limited against southpaws. A Hinske/Diaz platoon in left could be very good.

Help from Below

The Braves farm system is in good shape, but I don’t think we can expect much significant help from the minors this year. The main reason is that many of the Braves top prospects are very young players currently in the low minor league levels. They are far from their big league debuts. Most of the highly regarded prospects who are ready for prime time are already there (Hanson, Medlen, Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward). There are several guys in the high minors who might be of some help this year, but even then the contribution might be minimal.

Of the few players who I could see making an impact on the big league level this year, all are pitchers. There’s not a single position player in the Braves minor league system that I could see coming up and being a valuable addition. There are a few pitchers who could help out.

Chris Resop, who pitched briefly for the Braves in 2008, is one of those guys with talent who has never been able to make it happen on the big league level. He rose quickly through the minor league ranks in the Marlins system, but his results at the major league level in 2005 and 2006 ranged from bad to disastrous. He was ineffective for the Braves in 08. He missed all of last season but he has been very good at AAA Gwinnett this year. Resop has worked exclusively as a starter this year, and has gone 5-2 with a 1.84 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 13 starts, fanning 81 and walking 27 over 73.1 innings. Resop has never made a start in the majors. It’s possible that he simply has enough stuff and experience to dominate AAA hitters and wouldn’t be any better than before at the big league level. In fact, that seems to be the consensus around Major League Baseball. Resop’s contract stipulates that if he isn’t on the Major League roster by this Tuesday, he has to be traded or allowed to become a free agent. As yet there has been little interest in Resop despite his success at AAA. Right now it looks like he’ll be called up in a few days to replace somebody in the bullpen.

Scott Proctor is a reclamation project who is primarily known for being Joe Torre’s sacrificial lamb in 2006. Proctor pitched in 83 games for the Yankees that year, posting a 3.52 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 102.1 innings. He pitched in an additional 3 games and completed 4 innings in the postseason. The Yanks used him 52 more times the next season and then traded him to LA at the deadline, knowing he was just about spent. Proctor fell apart in 2008 and missed all of last year with injuries. The Braves picked him up off waivers last winter. Proctor actually seems like a guy who could get back to being an asset but so far it hasn’t gone well. In 8 games with Gwinnett, Proctor allowed 10 runs on 18 hits and 2 walks over just 8 innings, though he fanned 10. He was shelved for about 6 weeks and is now pitching with Myrtle Beach. He has allowed 1 run over 2 innings in 2 appearances so far.

Vladamir Nunez is another veteran righty who might have something left in him. Nunez is now (at least) 35 and it has been nearly a decade since he was a valuable pitcher in the majors. In 2001 and 2002, Nunez pitched in 129 games for the Marlins, posting a 3.08 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 189.2 innings. He saved 20 games in 02, but he fell way off over the next couple of years, and then did not appear in an MLB game from 2005-2007. He pitched in 23 games for the Braves in 2008, posting a 3.86 ERA but with a 1.56 WHIP over 32.2 innings. Last season he was very good in AAA all year but in his only appearance with the big league club he allowed 2 homers and 4 runs in an inning of work. Nunez has dominated for Gwinnett so far this year, throwing 18 innings during 11 appearances, and posting a 2.00 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP with 16 K and 5 BB. Again, who knows how much of this is guile and experience, and how much is Nunez actually having stuff that could get big league hitters out.

The Braves were widely criticized when they selected Vanderbilt pitcher Mike Minor in the 1st round of the draft a couple of years back. A common view was that Minor projected as a soft tossing left hander who would be a back of the rotation guy at best, and that the Braves had picked Minor because he would be easy to sign and relatively cheap. Yet in Minor’s 2nd year of pro ball he is currently leading the entire minor leagues in strikeouts. He is just 1-5 in 12 starts at AA Mississippi, but he has a 4.24 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, with 93 K and 29 BB over 70 innings. It’s doubtful the Braves would bring him up this season but you never know.

Michael Dunn is a left handed reliever who came over in the Javier Vazquez deal, and he actually might be the guy most likely to help the Braves out this season. Dunn is a flame thrower but he has always had control problems. He struggled in 4 games with the Yankees last year, but he has dominated at AAA Gwinnett this season. Dunn has made 20 appearances and has posted a 0.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP with 36 K and 11 BB over 26.2 innings. He has 4 saves.

Stephen Marek and Brandon Beachy are two other relievers having good seasons at the high minor league levels for the Braves this year. There are a few others who are doing well at those levels but they’re unlikely to pitch for the big league club this season.

Help from the Outside

I usually don’t spend much time thinking up different trades that the Braves could potentially make to improve their team. It’s almost silly to speculate on such things, as even the most avid fan really doesn’t know what general managers and other team executives are thinking. It’s not fantasy baseball. I don’t know how aggressive the Braves will be in the trade market, and I don’t know how much money Frank Wren will be allowed to add to the payroll. I also don’t know which players other teams are going to be willing to give up. Having said all of that, we can still look at what teams might be sellers this summer, and which players might be of value to the Braves if they could be acquired.

Right now there are about 6 teams who should be sellers: Baltimore, KC, Cleveland, Houston, Pittsburgh, and Arizona. 3 others could very well join them by the All-Star break: Chicago White Sox, Seattle, and Milwaukee. Others could join this group but for now everyone else still has a reason to think they can contend this season. Honestly, I really don’t see that many guys who seem like they could be on the block and would both help the Braves and be affordable.

There are plenty of middle relief types who could be available but many are perhaps out of the Braves price range. If the White Sox decide to cut their losses, Tony Pena, Matt Thornton, and JJ Putz are all relatively cheap and would not be under contract after this season (excluding club options). Two former Braves—Will Ohman and Octavio Dotel—could also be available and are not under contract after this year (excluding club options).

In terms of position players, the Braves biggest need is an everyday center fielder. There simply aren’t many everyday center fielders who are going to be available. When Wren traded for Nate McLouth last season it appeared that he had found an everyday center fielder, but it hasn’t turned out that way. I had been thinking that McLouth could benefit from a trip to the minors, and I honestly think that might be the reason why they put him on the DL for concussion like symptoms. Melky Cabrera is quite serviceable as a 4th outfielder but he is not an everyday player. Cabrera doesn’t do anything great but he can do a lot of things okay, and that’s the definition of a bench player. The Braves are already going to be going with a platoon in left so they really need to find a center fielder who can play every day. There may not be a guy like that out there who can be had. The Brewers would probably be willing to get rid of Jim Edmonds, but I’m not sure how much interest the Braves would have, considering that they showed no interest this winter. One guy who the Braves might have interest in is David Dejesus, and the Royals are going nowhere this season. Dejesus has played only 3 games in center since the start of the 2009 season, but I don’t think he would be a down grade defensively from Melky or McLouth. Those are really the only guys who seem likely to be available and would be affordable.

Help from Within

The bottom line is that the Braves are probably going to have to help themselves. What I mean is that there aren’t many answers in the minors, and trade options could be limited by the team’s budget restrictions and the lack of available players. If the Braves are going to get help, it will probably have to come by way of key players performing better. There are several players who are currently playing below their usual standard.

Over his first 4 complete seasons (06-09), Brian McCann hit .295/.357/.506/.863. He is currently hitting .268/.393/.429/.822. During his first 2 complete seasons (08-09), Yunel Escobar hit .294/.371/.418/.790 and averaged 12 homeruns. He is currently hitting .243/.351/.289/.641 and has yet to homer. Both of these guys should get going eventually.

Melky Cabrera hit .270/.332/.387/.718 in his first 4 complete seasons (06-09), averaging 9 homers and 11 SB a year. Melky is currently hitting .256/.321/.324/.645 and is on pace to hit just 3 homers and steal 8 bases. Cabrera’s numbers in New York are probably a bit skewed due to the lineup he played in and the fact that his power numbers took a tremendous leap last season when the Yankees began playing at the new, extreme hitter’s park.

I don’t know that we can expect Nate McLouth to get going at any point this year. From 2007-2009, McLouth hit .265/.353/.467/.820 and averaged 31 doubles, 3 triples, 20 homers, and 21 SB a year. So far this season he has hit .176/.295/.282/.577 and was on pace for 25 doubles, 0 triples, 8 homers, and 11 SB before going on the DL on Friday. I’m not expecting McLouth to come back and post an .820 OPS over the rest of the season.

Of far greater concern is the possibility that Chipper Jones may never start playing at a higher level than he has over the first 2 and a half months. Chipper’s production dropped way off last season when he hit .264/.388/.430/.818 with 23 doubles, 18 homers, and 71 RBI. But those numbers look great compared to his stats so far in 2010. Chipper is hitting .228/.375/.341/.716 and is on pace for 9 homers.

I’m starting to think that it’s also pointless to look at Derek Lowe’s past numbers and expect that sooner or later he’ll get back to pitching the way he did for the Dodgers. Lowe is 37 years old now and no longer pitching at Dodger Stadium and against the NL West. From 2005-2008, Lowe posted an ERA of a 3.59 and a WHIP of 1.23 for LA. He’s on pace for a 21-13 season this year, but he has an ERA of 5.04 and a WHIP of 1.45.

If at least a few of these guys start playing to their expected level it will make a major difference.

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