The Braves Blog: Florida Series Preview

The Braves passed another test this week, taking 2 out of 3 from the Padres to move in front of San Diego in the race for the best record in the National League. Sure, the Braves could easily have come away with a sweep, but the fact that they were able to rebound from Wednesday night’s extra inning loss by winning 8-0 on Thursday is another good sign. Now it’s back on the road and back to NL East play.

The Braves will go into the series with Florida a season high 17 games over .500 at 56-39. They are 7 games up on the Phils and 7.5 ahead of the Mets. The Marlins are 9 games back. Despite increasing the lead in the division, we really haven’t gotten on a roll yet in the second half. The Braves are 4-3 since the All-Star break and just 4-4 over their last 8.

The teams behind the Braves in the standings are struggling, but there is still a long way to go in the 2010 season. The Braves need to add to their lead in the division while the teams chasing them are down. In some ways the upcoming series in Florida doesn’t look too daunting. On the other hand, Florida has never been an easy place for the Braves to win. The Marlins are also playing better than they were when we last saw them.

Still, the pitching matchups are mostly favorable for Atlanta this weekend. And in general the Marlins are a pretty good matchup for the Braves. Their lineup, which can be potent, is full of slumping and slumbering bats. Their weaknesses are relief pitching and defense, making it no surprise that they struggle in close games. Florida’s biggest strength at this point—their starting pitching—is significantly nullified this series, as the Braves will not face either of their 10-game winners. Of course results on the field often vary from what you would expect looking at the series on paper.

Florida Series Preview

The Marlins are rarely hyped as contenders and they tend to be ignored by most fans and media members. In that sense, Florida’s season might not seem like a disappointment to this point. Fans of NL East teams, on the other hand, understand that the Marlins are always dangerous, and in any given year they have a chance to be one of the “surprise” contenders. The Marlins as an organization were hoping and expecting to be contenders in 2010. For fans of NL East teams and the Marlins themselves, Florida has underperformed this year.

They got off to a pretty good start, but since falling to 28-29 on June 5th the Marlins have been chasing .500. It looked for a time like they might go into a complete tailspin. They fired manager Fredi Gonzalez and when the Braves beat them on July 3rd they dropped a season worst 6 games below .500 at 37-43. Florida hung on for a 1-run win the next day to avoid a sweep, and they have been playing better ever since. They’ve won 10 of 15 and 5 of their last 6. The managerial change was silly but at least they have a winning record now under Edwin Rodriguez (13-12). They come into this series a game under at 47-48, the first time they’ve been within 1 win of .500 since June 23rd.

Winning close games has been a problem for the Fish this year. They are 14-17 in 1-run games and 1-5 in extra innings. This helps explain how they are under .500 despite a +14 run differential. However, the Marlins are coming off of one of their biggest wins of the season, a 3-2 victory over the Rockies on a walk off hit. Another issue Florida has had this season is that they haven’t been as good as usual at home. They are just 26-25 at Joe Robbie Stadium so far this year, after going 88-74 there over the previous 2 seasons.

Braves fans are quite familiar with the makeup of the Marlins. This year’s roster is very similar to the teams of previous seasons, but for some reason the Fish have played differently. It seems like the Marlins can never get all phases of the game going well in the same season. Last year, the Marlins were in the top 5 in the NL in runs, batting average, OBP, slugging, and OPS. They were in the top half in homers. But this season several of their good hitters are basically having off years. Currently the Marlins are 9th in runs per game, tied 9th in homers, 10th in batting average, 13th in OBP, and 12th in OPS. That’s quite a change from last season.

Another difference is in their use of the stolen base. Last season the Marlins were tied for 11th in the NL with 75 SB. Going into Thursday’s games the Marlins were 6th in stolen bases with 59. They have a solid 78.7% success rate. One thing that hasn’t changed much is that the Marlins hitters strikeout a lot and don’t walk very much. They are 15th in strikeouts and 13th in walks. Obviously Florida is not getting the power and the timely hitting that they got last season, and the increase in base stealing is probably an attempt to make up for that drop off.

Just about every regular in the Florida lineup has been struggling this month, even as the Marlins have started to play better. However, many of those same hitters appear to be coming out of their slumps. Florida’s lineup is always dangerous. The key is to keep them in the park. When the Marlins do score runs they can be tough because their pitching is normally solid. They are 7th in the NL in runs allowed, 6th in ERA, and 7th in WHIP. Florida’s starting pitching is their real strength, as Josh Johnson leads a group that has the 5th best ERA in the NL.

The bullpen has been another story. Relief pitching has often been a problem for Florida and this season has been no different. They are 11th in the NL in bullpen ERA and they have just a 64% save success rate. This has hurt them in close games. Poor defense, another Marlins staple, has also led to struggles in tight games. They are 15th in both errors and fielding percentage, and 13th in defensive efficiency.

So far this season the Braves are 4-2 against Florida and they have outscored the Marlins 29-19. They have played 3 against the Marlins at home and 3 in Florida and they won 2 of 3 in both of those series. In late May, the Braves lost the opener of 3 at Joe Robbie, 6-4, but then came back to win 7-3 and 8-3 in the next 2 games to take the series. During the July 4th holidays the Braves won 4-3 in 11 innings and 4-1 in the first 2 games to clinch a series win, before losing on Independence Day, 3-2.

Friday

Derek Lowe vs. Alejandro Sanabia

Braves fans have learned not to expect much from Lowe. Sometimes he gives the team a good chance to win, but you always know there’s a chance that he’ll have a bad night and be done early. And at least since coming to Atlanta, Lowe has rarely been outstanding. It’s basically a 50-50 shot with Lowe. He’s 10-8 in 20 starts with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. He has 9 quality starts and the Braves are 11-9 with him on the mound.

On the road, Lowe has struggled most of the time. In 10 starts on the road he is 3-5 with a 4.63 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. He’s thrown 5 quality starts and the Braves are 4-6 in Lowe’s 10 starts away from Turner Field. Lowe has been slightly better over the last 4 or 5 weeks (emphasis on “slightly”). In his last 7 starts Lowe is just 2-3 and the Braves are just 3-4 in those games, but he has posted a 3.27 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP over 44 innings. Lowe has not faced Florida this year.

I must admit that I had never heard of Alejandro Sanabia before this week. A right hander, Sanabia was drafted by Florida in the 32nd round of the 2006 draft. He had never pitched above high-A level until this year when he pitched in AA. His minor league stats are really not that impressive but he has been decent in his few appearances with the big club so far.

Sanabia has pitched in 5 games for the Fish, making 2 starts. Overall he is 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, having allowed 5 runs (4 earned) on 19 hits and 4 walks with 17 K over 17 innings. Those stats look fairly impressive, particularly the strikeouts and the walks. However, the high strikeout rate appears to be an aberration, as he was never a strikeout pitcher in the minors. Sanabia has hit 2 batters and allowed 2 homers.

Sanabia will be making just his 3rd start on Friday. His first start came at Arizona and he lasted only 3.1 innings, though he held the Snakes scoreless on 5 hits and a walk with 2 K’s, taking a no-decision in the Marlins 2-0 win. He got his first career win in his last start at home against the Nats, holding them scoreless over 5.1 innings on 4 hits and 2 walks with 5 K in the Marlins 1-0 win.

Kris Medlen vs. Anibal Sanchez

Braves fans will be interested to see how Medlen performs in his start on Saturday. He hasn’t started since the final game of the first half on July 11th. You have to wonder if his confidence has fallen after a couple of rough relief outings. I understand the Braves wanting to take the opportunity to limit Medlen’s innings, but he was really rolling before the break.

In 28 games overall, Medlen is 6-2 with a 3.31 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. As a starter Medlen is 5-0 in 11 starts and the Braves are 10-1 in those games. Medlen has a 3.41 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP as a starter. He has made 7 quality starts. Medlen faced the Marlins back on July 2nd at Turner Field, going 6.1 innings and allowing just 1 run on 6 hits and a walk with 5 K. The only run scored due to a solo homer but he wound up getting a no-decision in the Braves 4-3 win.

Braves fans need no introduction to Anibal Sanchez. It seems like the Braves have faced Sanchez in every series they’ve played against the Marlins since he arrived in the big leagues. Sanchez is a slightly above average pitcher having a slightly above average year. In 18 starts he is 7-6 with a 3.62 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. Sanchez has produced 11 quality starts out of 18 tries, but the Marlins are just 9-9 with him on the mound.

Sanchez has been a much tougher pitcher at home this year. In 9 home starts he is 3-2 with a 2.56 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. 7 of his 9 home starts have been quality starts. Still, Florida is just 5-4 in those games. The Braves have already faced Sanchez twice in 2010. Back on May 25th at Joe Robbie, Sanchez gave up 5 hits and 4 walks but he struck out 6 and yielded only 2 runs over 6.1 innings, getting the win in the 6-4 Florida victory. On July 3rd at Turner, Sanchez again pitched around trouble before the Braves finally managed to break through. He ended up allowing 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks with 4 K over 6 innings, taking the loss as the Braves won 4-1. In 11 career starts against Atlanta, Sanchez is 4-6 with a 4.65 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. As always, the Braves will have to cash in on their run scoring chances or else Sanchez will likely keep Florida in the game.

Sunday

Jair Jurrjens vs. Chris Volstad

Jurrjens’ overall numbers are finally starting to look a little better. He is now 3-3 in 9 starts with a 4.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. JJ has 5 quality starts and the Braves are 6-3 with him on the mound. Jurrjens road numbers do not look good. He is 0-3 in 4 starts away from home with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He has pitched a quality start in 2 of those games, but the Braves have gone just 1-3 in his 4 road starts.

Double-J has been very good since coming back from the long stint on the DL. It seemed like everybody was being pretty cautious in their optimism, but he’s gotten right back to pitching like he did last season. In his 4 starts since recovering from the hamstring injury, Jurrjens is 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has fanned 20 over 24.2 innings and has held opposing hitters to a .216 average. The Braves have won all 4 of those games. Jurrjens has not yet faced Florida this season.

Volstad will be making his first start for the Marlins in 3 weeks on Sunday. He was sent down to AAA earlier this month and will be recalled after making 3 successful starts in the minors. He didn’t exactly dominant at AAA, going 1-0 in 3 starts with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 17 innings. However, he hasn’t exactly been horrible in the majors this year either. He was just 4-8 in 17 starts and the Fish were just 4-13 with him on the mound, but he threw 9 quality starts, including a complete game, and he had a 4.78 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.

Volstad hasn’t lived up to expectations that the Marlins had for him when he was coming up a few years ago, but he’s a decent pitcher. He’s been better than decent at home this year. In 9 starts at home he is just 2-4 and the Marlins are 2-7 in those games, but he has posted a 3.56 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. 5 of his 9 home starts have been quality starts, including his complete game performance. The Braves haven’t seen Volstad in 2010 but they know him well.

Outlook

I don’t want to jinx us but I like the Braves chances in this series. I wouldn’t be shocked if we win all 3 games. We would appear to have the edge in the starting pitching matchup in all 3 games. None of the starters the Braves will face are left handed or among the top 20 starters in the NL. The youngster making his 3rd career start and Volstad coming back from the minors sounds a lot better than Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco.

The Marlins have been playing better, but their lineup still has a number of guys who are struggling and are wondering if they may be traded at any minute. Atlanta starting pitchers should be able to hold down the Florida offensive attack, and I don’t see the Braves getting shutdown by Florida’s starters. The Braves have been a good late game team this season and they should be able to take advantage of a shaky Marlins pen.

Perhaps I’m over confident. While the Marlins haven’t been a great home team in 2010, the Braves are still just 22-26 on the road this year. The one thing that worries me any time we play the Marlins on the road is the memory of all the difficult games the Braves have had in Florida over the years. It’s just never been an easy place for the Braves to go and get wins. In the 10 seasons prior to this one the Braves’ best record on the road against the Marlins in any season was 5-4. The Braves record at Joe Robbie Stadium since the start of the 2000 season is just 43-49 (.467). At all other opponent sites during that time the Braves have a 404-361 record (.528).

This could be another series of close games that are decided late. But in this case I like the Braves chances in that type of situation. This is definitely a series the Braves could and should win. They may even be able to pull off a sweep.


Other Notes

This could be a big series for Braves left handed batters. Jason Heyward, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann are all going pretty good right now and they will see 3 right handed starters. It’s unfortunate that Eric Hinske hurt his foot on Thursday, as he would be the best option to play left this weekend and maybe even start a game at first to give Troy Glaus a day off. He wants to play but I find it hard to believe Bobby won’t keep him out for at least Friday’s game.

The trade deadline is one week away, and while there have been plenty of rumors out there, the Braves haven’t been mentioned many times in potential deals. It could be that the trade for Alex Gonzalez will end up being the only move the Braves make. There was hope that Nate McLouth would come back and turn his season around, but I haven’t seen anything to make me think that he’s primed for a return to 2008 form. I know that he hasn’t had many opportunities yet but he’s just 1 for 6 with a strikeout so far. And for me the results are less important than the way he looked at bat and in the field. He has looked exactly the same at the plate, pulling off the ball, lunging, and chasing. And in the field he once again allowed a runner to advance on a fly ball without even offering a throw. I don’t know what’s going on with that but someone needs to get on him about it.

Much of the trade talk that there has been concerning the Braves has focused on the acquisition of an outfielder. At this point I really don’t think the Braves need an upgrade in the outfield. Sure it would help, but there are other areas of need. In my opinion, the bullpen is the part of the roster that could use help the most. The Atlanta pen has been very good, but it’s also been worked a lot and a few of the relievers are banged up. Plus, some of the key relievers are up there in years. 3 of the relievers currently in the pen are serious liabilities (Mike Dunn, Jessie Chavez, Kenshin Kawakami), another is on the DL (Eric O’Flaherty), and Takashi Saito is 40 and has battled injuries off and on all season. The problem is that there really don’t seem to be that many guys who we could acquire without paying a steep price.

At this point I’ve come to believe that if the Braves do make another deal, the best thing would be to go after a left handed starter. They could use a southpaw in the rotation. Plus, if they get another guy for the rotation, Medlen could then go back to the bullpen fulltime, which would keep his innings down, and it would give the Braves another solid righty for the middle innings which they need.

I won’t be upset if the Braves stand pat. I just hope that they don’t make a trade just to do something and end up making a mistake. Honestly, unless they are getting a player or players that will definitely make an impact, I’d rather they keep the team as is rather than give up a part of the future or risk disrupting the team.