Thursday, December 22, 2011

The NFL Blog: 2011 Week 16 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread: (10-6); Straight Up: (10-5-1)

Season: Vs. Spread: (118-98-8); Straight Up: (150-74)

Week 15 Review: I’ll take it. 10-6 and 10-5-1 in a week when the Packers lost to the Chiefs; the Colts beat the Titans; the Texans lost at home to the Panthers; the Giants lost at home to the Skins; the Chargers crushed the Ravens and the Niners crushed the Steelers? Yeah, I’ll definitely take it.

Week 16 Preview: Honestly, I had no idea that there were 13 games on Saturday this week until I looked at the spreads late Tuesday night. I just didn’t think about Christmas being on Sunday and I actually wouldn’t have known for sure that all games would be moved to Saturday in such a case. I’m sure it’s happened a few times since I’ve been watching but I had forgotten.

One thing that stands out about this week’s lines is the lack of medium or normal sized spreads. It’s like every game this week is either a #3 vs. #14 first round NCAA Tourney matchup or a #8 vs. #9 matchup. There are 5 spreads of 9.0 or greater, including 3 spreads of 13.0 or greater. On the other hand, there are 5 spreads of 1.5 or less. This could be tricky.


Thursday Night’s Game


Houston (-5.5) @ Indianapolis

Pick: Texans cover

Comments: These two teams have been forging out new identities this season. The soft, always disappointing Texans have been tough, defensively strong, and resilient. The Colts—a lock to win double digits for over a decade—have been the worst team in football without Peyton Manning.

Finally things snapped last week. The Colts (1-13 overall; 5-9 ATS) snapped a 14-game losing skid dating back to last season and got their first win of the year with a 27-13 win over the Titans at home. Houston’s 7-game win streak came to an end with a surprising 13-28 loss at home to the Panthers. The Texans (10-4 overall; 9-4-1 ATS) had also been 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 prior to last week. The Colts have now won 3 straight ATS.

The Texans have already clinched the AFC South division title and their first ever playoff berth. The Colts will obviously be missing the playoffs for the first time since 2001. They can just about lock up the 1st pick in next year’s draft with a loss this week.

Houston set the tone for the season in week 1 when they blew out the Colts, 34-7, at home. They are still 0-7 all-time against the Colts on the road. The QB matchup in this game will be TJ Yates vs. Dan Orlovsky. Doesn’t that just about sum up the unpredictable nature of the NFL?

Amazingly, the Texans really hadn’t missed a beat without Matt Schaub until last week, despite the fact that Yates only got the job when Matt Leinart suffered a season ending injury in his first start after Schaub went down. Orlovsky has only started 3 games for the Colts but so far he’s been Indy’s best QB of the season by a wide margin. Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter were 0-11 with 8 TD and 10 INT. Orlovsky is 1-2 with 4 TD and 2 INT. He’s not great but he’s certainly been an improvement.

Houston DC Wade Phillips was forced to take a temporary leave of absence due to health issues recently and you wonder if that will end up being a big deal. Phillips isn’t a head coach but he’s a fine coordinator and he has helped take the Houston defense from being one of the worst to one of the best in the NFL this season. They didn’t look the same without Phillips last week and he’ll miss this game as well. They hope to have him back for the season finale.

You might think that the Texans weren’t up for last week’s game after clinching the division the week before, but they shouldn’t be thinking ahead to the playoffs just yet. They are still alive for the #2 or even the #1 seed. They’ve always been a tougher team at home and a bye week could be huge for them due to Andre Johnson’s lingering hamstring problem.

So Houston should certainly be up for this game. You wonder if the Colts will be up for it. They got all of the pressure off with the win last week. The end of this horrible season is in sight and Christmas is on Sunday. I’m wondering if the Colts will be going balls-to-the-wall for this Thursday night game, even if it is at home.


Saturday’s Early Games


Miami (+9.5) @ New England

Pick: Patriots win but Dolphins beat the spread

Comments: The Dolphins used to be a bugaboo for the Pats but they haven’t been giving them as much trouble lately. New England won the season opener against the Fins in Miami by a 38-24 score and they’ve won 4 of the last 5 against them at home.

The Pats (11-3 overall; 8-6 ATS) did us all a favor and whipped Timmy Tebow’s Broncos last week for their 6th straight win (4-2 ATS). They have clinched the AFC East division title and are currently the #1 seed in the conference, holding a 1-game edge on a trio of 10-4 teams.

The issue with New England all season has been their defense. To put it kindly, they’ve had a hard time against the pass, and things figure to be even more difficult now that DE Andre Carter is finished for the year with a quad injury. Even with Carter out, the Dolphins (5-9 overall; 7-6-1 ATS) might have a hard time protecting Matt Moore if tackle Jake Long can’t go this week. He missed last week’s game with a back injury.

Tony Sparano was finally put out of his misery a few weeks ago. Ownership’s treatment of Sparano has always been a bit shady. In a way, it’s only fitting that Sparano was axed despite the fact that the Fins have been one of the NFL’s better teams over the last 2 months. Miami has either gotten a win or lost by 3 points or less in 8 of their last 9 games. They have won 5 of their last 7. The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8.


Cleveland (+13) @ Baltimore

Pick: Ravens cover

Comments: The Ravens queefed again last week, as their 4-game win streak came to an end with a 14-34 loss at San Diego. Once again the Ravens suffered one of their setbacks in primetime. Now it’s time for Baltimore (10-4 overall; 7-6-1 ATS) to rebound with a blowout victory.

The Browns (4-10 overall; 5-7-2 ATS) are about as non-descript as it gets. They’ve lost 4 straight and 7 of their last 8. Against the spread, however, the Browns have won 2 straight and 4 of their last 5.

Baltimore won 24-10 at Cleveland in week 13 and they’ve won 7 of their last 8 against the Browns at home. Colt McCoy still hasn’t been ruled out for this one which seems weird considering all the attention his “concussion” has garnered. If Seneca Wallace isn’t the QB for Cleveland on Saturday I’ll be stunned. I doubt McCoy is even allowed to go outside or stay out of bed for longer than 30 minutes at this point.

The Ravens are tied with the Steelers at 10-4 but they swept Pittsburgh this season and thus hold the tie-breaker for the division title. They would also hold the tiebreaker over Houston for the #2 seed if they finished tied. They are just 1 game back of New England for the #1 seed.


Arizona (+4) @ Cincinnati

Pick: Bengals win but Cardinals beat the spread

Comments: There’s no question which team has the momentum going into this one. The Bengals were a great story early in the season; the Cardinals have become a great story late in the season.

You have to give Arizona some credit for being competitive this season. If John Skelton was a former Heisman Trophy winner and a fanatical Christian he would be the buzz of the league. The Cards (7-7 overall; 8-6 ATS) have won 4 straight and 6 of their last 7. They aren’t a powerhouse. They’ve played a fairly easy slate of games and they are pulling out nail biters week after week. So some of this is lucky/fluky but they are actually legitimately decent. The Cards have either gotten a win or lost by 3 points or less in 7 of their last 8 games.

Nearly every single Arizona game lately has gone down to the wire and almost every time they’ve come out on top. Their last 6 wins have come by 4 points or less and/or in overtime. They’ve won on a 90+ yard punt return and they’ve survived defeat due to an opposing kicker being iced by his own head coach. It’s been fun to watch.

The Bengals (8-6 overall; 7-5-2 ATS) have not been having fun during the 2nd half of this season. They eked out a 20-13 win at St. Louis last week to snap a 2-game skid and their only other win over the last 6 weeks was by 3 points against the Browns at home. They had lost 4 of 5 prior to last week. Cinci is just 0-4-2 ATS over their last 6 games.

The Bengals got swept by the Ravens and the Steelers and they have been eliminated from the AFC North race but they aren’t dead yet in terms of the postseason. Actually, they’re 7th in the AFC playoff standings, on the outside looking in for the moment, despite having the same overall record as the Jets (currently the #6 seed).

Arizona has been eliminated from the NFC West race but they too are still alive for a wildcard spot. Admittedly they face much greater odds than the Bengals. They are currently 6th in line for a wildcard.

Arizona usually isn’t as formidable on the road and they are only 2-5 away from home this season (4-3 ATS), but the Bengals are only 3-3 at home (2-4 ATS).



Minnesota (+6.5) @ Washington

Pick: Skins win but Vikings beat the spread

Comments: I don’t know what to make of Washington’s recent resurgence. Let me restate that: I don’t know what to make of Washington showing signs of life and being competitive over the last month or so. Over their last 5 games, the Skins (5-9 overall; 7-7 ATS) have lost by 3 in OT against the Cowboys; won at Seattle by 6; lost by 15 to the Jets; lost by 7 to the Patriots; and thumped the Giants by 13 on the road. They have won 2 straight and 4 of 5 against the spread.

Minnesota (2-12 overall; 5-7-2 ATS) has been dreadful all season. I didn’t expect them to be a good team but I don’t think anyone thought they would be this bad. They’ve lost 6 in a row and 8 of their last 9. They are 1-4-1 in their last 6 ATS.

This week the Vikes have 3 regulars dealing with concussions and at this point it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were held out. Washington will be without tackle Trent Williams and TE Fred Davis for the rest of the season due to failed drug screens.

The Vikes don’t really have any reason to be up for this game but with Adrian Peterson available you never know. Actually, the Vikes might be better off losing this game, as a win virtually eliminates them from contention for the #1 pick in next year’s draft.


Denver (-1.5) @ Buffalo

Pick: Bills pull off the upset

Comments: Touchdown Timmy Jesus finally failed last week. Denver’s uncanny run of miracle finishes ended with the Patriots coming to town and dealing them a 41-23 defeat. The loss snapped their 6-game win streak and they’ve now lost back to back games ATS. Now we’ll see if the Broncos (8-6 overall; 7-7 ATS) can recover and finish off their quest for the playoffs or if they’ll finish off the season with a humbling crash down to Earth.

That’s actually a nice segue into the world of the Buffalo Bills. They were the Broncos of the first 6 weeks (minus the hysterical emotions and the religious fervor) but they’ve been the Colts of the last 9 weeks. The poor Bills (5-9 overall; 5-8-1 ATS) have now lost 7 straight games. They have lost 3 straight and 6 of their last 7 ATS.

Certainly injuries have played a role in Buffalo’s slide and you could kind of see it coming, but it’s been even uglier than expected at times. They’ve lost 3 in a row at home (0-3 ATS) and not even God’s 2nd Son coming to town could prevent a local TV blackout this week. Denver hasn’t been scared of the road anyway this season, as they’ve won their last 5 away games (5-0 ATS) and they are 6-1 ATS on the road for the year.

The Broncos missed safety Brian Dawkins last week and he’s questionable for this one with a neck injury.

There’s no real reason for me to pick the Bills this week other than that I figure it just has to end at some point. There’s no way they lose out after starting 5-2. And I also really, really want the Broncos to lose. That might be the real reason I’m picking Buffalo.

The Broncos are still in good shape in the AFC West, holding a 1-game lead on the Raiders and Chargers and a 2-game lead on the Chiefs. If they lose this week it could get interesting.


St. Louis (+15) @ Pittsburgh

Pick: Steelers cover

Comments: This is clearly a mismatch. There shouldn’t be much doubt as to the final outcome. What is of interest is Big Ben’s status. At home, against one of the least capable teams in the game, the Steelers (10-4 overall; 6-8 ATS) might feel confident enough to rest Roethlisberger. If that happens, this spread will probably end up being a bit too much.

Of course Big Ben played last Monday night and he didn’t look very good, so they might be better off going with one of the backups anyway. If he can’t move around and put the proper weight on the ankle then he probably should sit this one out. He’s listed as doubtful and he’s just one of a handful of key players that are banged up for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh’s 4-game win streak was snapped by that 20-3 loss at San Fran. They’ve now lost 2 in a row and 4 of their last 6 ATS. The Rams might be the worst team in the NFL. St. Louis (2-12 overall; 2-11-1 ATS) has now lost 5 in a row (0-4-1 ATS) and they are just 1-6 on the road this season (1-6 ATS). The Steelers are 6-1 at home this season but just 4-3 ATS.

The Rams have no good reason to win this game. If they do pull off a shocker it would virtually eliminate them from contention for the #1 pick in next year’s draft. Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff spot and they are in a tie with Baltimore in the AFC North, but they would lose the tiebreaker to the Ravens so they will have to finish with a better record in order to win the division title.


New York Giants (+3) @ New York Jets

Pick: Jets win but Giants beat the spread

Comments: Interesting time for this little rivalry game to be played. Both teams need a win desperately. Although you wouldn’t know it from all of the media buzz directed towards the Jets, the Giants are actually in a worse spot.

After saving their season with an out-of-nowhere comeback win over the Cowboys on Sunday night in week 14, the G-Men (7-7 overall; 6-7-1 ATS) returned home and promptly got throttled by the Skins. They have now lost 5 of their last 6. They’ve lost 4 of 6 ATS.

The Giants are just 1 game back of the Cowboys in the NFC East and they will host Dallas in the season finale, but obviously they can’t afford to lose. Philadelphia lurks just a game behind them.

The Jets (8-6 overall; 6-8 ATS) saw their 3-game win streak come to an end last week when they were thrashed 19-45 by the Eagles in Philly. They’ve also lost 4 of their last 6 ATS. The Jets are still in the #6 position in the AFC playoff picture, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Bengals, but clearly they can’t afford to lose either.

The Jets are 6-1 at home this season but that stat doesn’t really apply this week. The Giants have won the last 4 meetings in this series. In 2003 they beat the Jets 31-28. The last meeting was in 2007, with the Giants winning 35-24.


Tampa Bay (+9) @ Carolina

Pick: Panthers cover

Comments: Many people thought the Buccaneers would take a step back this season after their surprising 10-win campaign of a year ago, but they started off the year looking just as feisty as they were in 2010. Then they lost a couple of games and started to slide and at some point a switch must have gone off because they have completely fallen apart.

Tampa Bay (4-10 overall; 4-10 ATS) has now lost 8 games in a row. They have lost 4 straight and 7 of 8 ATS. Raheem Morris is almost certainly a dead coach walking.

Carolina (5-9 overall; 8-6 ATS) has been a little bit better than expected this season, mostly because Cam Newton has been better than expected. They have now won 3 of their last 4 (3-1 ATS) with their only loss coming in week 14 when they blew a 3-score lead against the Falcons at home.

Strangely, the Panthers have lost their last 3 home games (0-3 ATS). They could snap that skid this week, as the Bucs are just 1-5 away from home this season (2-4 ATS). The Panthers spanked Tampa 38-19 on the road back in week 13 and they’ve won 4 of their last 6 against the Bucs overall.


Jacksonville (+7.5) @ Tennessee

Pick: Titans win but Jags beat the spread

Comments: I think this is one of the trickier games of the week. It’s possible that neither team will be able to recover from last week’s embarrassing losses, and yet one of these teams will have to win.

The Titans (7-7 overall; 7-7 ATS) can’t win their division but they aren’t eliminated from WC contention. However, last week’s inexplicable 13-27 loss to the Colts certainly didn’t help their chances. They’ve lost 2 in a row now (0-2 ATS) and they are 4th in line for a wildcard spot in the AFC, 1 game back of the Bengals and Jets.

The Jags (4-10 overall; 5-8-1 ATS) have been up and down in 3 weeks since Mel Tucker took over for fired head coach Jack Del Rio. They’ve either looked outmanned or inspired, losing 14-38 against the Chargers; crushing the Bucs 41-14; and then seeing the Falcons beat them 41-14 in Atlanta last Thursday night. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games (1-4 ATS) and they are just 1-6 on the road this season (2-4-1 ATS).

Jacksonville beat Tennessee at home, 16-14, way back in week 1 (another loss the Titans will probably rue during the offseason). These teams have split the season series 4 out of the last 5 years.


Oakland (+1) @ Kansas City

Pick: Raiders pull off the upset

Comments: I might not be giving the Chiefs enough credit, but let’s be honest: they’ve been dead like 4 times.

The Chiefs played their asses off for Romeo last week and knocked off the Packers, 19-14. They’ve won 2 of their last 3; they are 3-1 ATS in their last 4; and there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to show better effort now that Todd Haley has been banished. Hell, the Chiefs (6-8 overall; 8-6 ATS) aren’t even eliminated from the playoffs yet, though they are 2 games behind the Broncos in the AFC West and it would take a miracle for them to reach the postseason.

Maybe I need to take KC more seriously now that they have a reasonable option at QB. Look, Kyle Orton is Kyle Orton. But Tyler Palko is Tyler Palko if you get what I’m saying.

The Raiders (7-7 overall; 8-5-1 ATS) just can’t get over the hump. I still can’t figure out if Carson Palmer is a mediocre quarterback or if he just totally sucks balls. Oakland has lost 3 in a row (0-2-1 ATS), yet they are still just 1 game back in the AFC West and they are also in the WC hunt. Their biggest problem is that they are still without Darren McFadden.

KC destroyed Oakland on the road in week 7, shutting out the Raiders 28-0. However, the Raiders have won the last 4 meetings at KC.


Saturday’s Late Games


San Diego (+1.5) @ Detroit

Pick: Chargers pull off the upset

Comments: Can the Chargers go from disaster to the playoffs again? San Diego (7-7 overall; 5-9 ATS) has now won 3 in a row (3-0 ATS) and they are only 1 game back of the Broncos in the AFC West. The Chargers are in the #4 position in the WC standings but also only a game back in that race.

The Lions (9-5 overall; 6-6-2 ATS) have lucked out the last 2 weeks to keep their dreams of a playoff berth alive and kicking. They are currently the #6 seed in the NFC, tied with the Falcons and 2 games up on the rest of the competition. However, they have really been pushing their luck lately. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4.

The Chargers are just 2-4 on the road (2-4 ATS) but they could certainly pull this off.


Philadelphia (+1) @ Dallas

Pick: Cowboys cover

Comments: People often talk about teams being “left for dead” and then coming back to life, but it’s usually hyperbole. If the Eagles make it to the playoffs it won’t be hyperbole to say that they rose from the dead. Philly (6-8 overall; 6-8 ATS) has won 2 straight (2-0 ATS) and they are lurking just 2 games back of the Boys and 1 game behind the G-Men.

The Cowboys (8-6 overall; 5-8-1 ATS) really should have the division wrapped up by now but they are the Cowboys and they don’t make things easy on themselves. Despite the crushing defeats to the Cards and the Giants, the Boys are in 1st in the NFC East, 1-game up on New York.

Dallas ended their 2-week skid with a 31-15 win over Tampa Bay last Saturday, also snapping a 4-game skid ATS. They had lost 6 of 7 ATS going into last week.

Philly ran over the Cowboys at home in week 8, winning 34-7, but the Cowboys have won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.


San Francisco (-1) @ Seattle

Pick: Seahawks pull off the upset

Comments: I know Big Ben was playing hurt last week but you had to be impressed with San Fran’s 20-3 win over Pittsburgh last Monday night. The Niners (11-3 overall; 11-2-1 ATS) clinched the NFC West division title a long time ago and they are currently the #2 seed in the NFC. They are tied with the Saints and 2 games behind Green Bay.

Despite the win over the Steelers, the Niners are just 2-2 in their last 4 (2-2 ATS). They won’t have an easy time beating the Seahawks in Seattle this weekend.

The Seahawks (7-7 overall; 9-4-1 ATS), like their division mates in Arizona, have proven to be a decent team. They’ve won 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. They’ve also won 3 straight and 6 of 7 ATS.

Obviously the Seahawks can’t win their division but they are still alive in the hunt for the playoffs. They are currently the #7 team but they are 2 games behind both the Falcons and Lions.

The Niners won easily over the Seahawks at home in week 1, beating them 33-17. However, Seattle might have the biggest home field advantage in the NFL at this point. The Niners have lost their last 2 road games (0-2 ATS) and the Seahawks have won 6 of the last 8 meetings with San Francisco at home.

In addition, Patrick Willis has missed the last 2 games with a hamstring injury and is questionable for this week.


Sunday Night’s Game


Chicago (+13) @ Green Bay

Pick: Packers cover

Comments: This game should have been huge. I’m not exactly sad that it doesn’t look like a very good matchup at this point.

The main reason that this matchup isn’t the sexy showdown that it looked like around Thanksgiving time is that the Bears have been totally destroyed by injuries. Not only are the Bears without their top QB (Jay Cutler), they are also without their top RB (Matt Forte) and their top WR (Johnny Knox).

The Bears have apparently seen enough of Caleb Hanie (finally) because Josh McCown is getting the start at QB this week. I don’t know if McCown is going to help much but Hanie was absolutely horrible.

The Bears (7-7 overall; 7-7 ATS) have lost 4 in a row (1-3 ATS) and they have fallen to the #4 position in the WC chase, 2 games back of both the Lions and Falcons.

The other thing that killed this matchup’s appeal was Green Bay losing for the first time last week. There’s no history at stake now that the Packers (13-1 overall; 9-5 ATS) can’t go undefeated. But this is an important game for them. They don’t want to head into the playoffs on any kind of a slump.

Green Bay’s 14-19 loss at KC snapped their 19-game win streak that had spanned a full calendar year. The Pack is just 4-4 ATS in their last 8. Green Bay’s roster doesn’t resemble a Civil War field hospital like Chicago’s does, but the Packers are certainly banged up. They’ll be without Greg Jennings again this week. They clinched the NFC North division title weeks ago and they can clinch the #1 seed in the NFC with a win on Christmas.

This is a big game for Chicago too but baring something outrageous they would appear to be done for.

The Packers are still 6-0 at home this season (5-1 ATS). Their overall winning streak ended last week, but they’ve still won 11 straight (9-2 ATS) and 17 of their last 18 at Lambeau Field.

The Packers beat the Bears 27-17 at Soldier Field back in week 3 and they’ve now won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two. They’ve won their last 3 against Chicago at home.


Monday Night’s Game


Atlanta (+6.5) @ New Orleans

Pick: Saints win but Falcons beat the spread

Comments: This is a great final Monday Night Football matchup and a huge game for my Falcons.

The Falcons (9-5 overall; 6-7-1 ATS) haven’t had a signature win yet this season and this will be their last chance for one. The Dirty Birds have won 2 straight (2-0 ATS), 4 of 5, and 7 of their last 9.

The Saints have been rolling for a while now. New Orleans (11-3 overall; 10-4 ATS) has won 6 in a row (6-0 ATS) and they are 6-0 at home this season (6-0 ATS). The Saints have clinched a playoff spot and they would clinch the NFC South division title with a win on Monday night. They are battling the Niners for the #2 seed and a first round bye. New Orleans can’t catch Green Bay for the #1 seed, as they lost their head to head matchup with the Packers way back in the season opener.

The Falcons are currently the #5 seed in the NFC and they can clinch a playoff berth with an upset of the Saints. If the Falcons win their last 2 games and the Saints lose their last 2 games they would win the division. It’s unlikely but it’s not impossible.

The Falcons should get CB Brent Grimes back for this one and that is huge. He’s missed the last 3 with a knee injury but he’s probable for Monday night. DB Kelvin Hayden has missed the last 4 with a toe injury but he could be back for this one. The Falcons will need all of their DB’s to slow down the New Orleans offense.

The Falcons won here last year in OT but when the two teams met up in Week 16 on Monday Night Football in Atlanta it was New Orleans getting the last laugh. The Saints have now won their last 6 games on MNF.

The Saints beat the Falcons 26-23 in overtime at the Georgia Dome back in week 10. That was the game where the Falcons went for it on 4th and inches deep in their own territory and got stopped, setting up the Saints for the game winning FG.

Since Drew Brees and Sean Payton arrived in New Orleans in 2006, the Saints have won 9 of 11 against their rivals, including 4 of 5 at home.

A win for the Falcons would obviously be huge for many reasons. A loss wouldn’t be devastating, as they would still get into the playoffs if they beat Tampa Bay at home in the season finale.

One last thing to keep in mind is that the Falcons will be playing this game on 11 days of rest, as they played on Thursday night in week 15.

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