Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-9); Straight Up (10-6)
Season: Vs. Spread (7-9); Straight Up (10-6)
Week 1 Review: I couldn’t quite go .500 against the spread but if Brady hadn’t gotten hurt the Pats would have covered for sure to I should have been 8-8 instead of 7-9. Favorites were just 11-5 straight up in week 1. My worst picks of the week were for the Rams to beat the spread against Philly and for the Raiders to upset Denver. Whoops! Anyway, week 1 is just too unpredictable. I’m more confident heading into week 2.
Week 2 Preview: Vegas seems to be refraining from making rash judgments based on the results of week 1. Week 1 is notorious for giving false indicators. Last year’s only major example was Cleveland getting lambasted 34-7 at home by Pittsburgh. They would of course go on to win 10 games. This week I’m leaning heavily on past results and on home vs. road splits.
Sunday’s Early Games
Oakland (+3.5) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover.
Comment: Can anyone honestly feel confident going with the Raiders against any team in the League right now? They are 19-63 in their last 82 games dating back to their blowout loss in the 2002 Super Bowl. They are 6-34 in their last 40 road games. Yikes. KC hung in with New England, which was somewhat impressive despite Brady’s injury. This decade, the Chiefs are now 19 games under .500 on the road and 18 games over .500 at home.
Green Bay (-3) @ Detroit
Pick: Packers cover.
Comment: Hmmm…why so low of a spread? The Pack went 11-5 on the road the last two years and 3-1 against the spread as a road favorite. They’ve won 5 straight over the Lions. GB looked good in week 1; Detroit looked dreadful. I ask again: why is the spread so low? Vegas knows. But you have to take the Pack.
Tennessee (+1) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Titans pull off the upset.
Comment: Vegas seems to be tentative here as well, as the Bungles were pathetic in week 1 and the Titans knocked off the Jags. They could be concerned about Vince Young, but I personally think the Titans are better off with Kerry Collins under center. Obviously this also a home/road thing. The Bengals are now 21 games under .500 on the road this decade while they are .500 at home. But the Titans have been a good road dog lately and I picked the Ravens to upset Cinci last week and it worked so I’m going to pick Tennessee to do the same thing in week 2.
Chicago (+3) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers win but Bears beat the spread.
Comment: Both of these teams posted impressive road wins in week 1. Interestingly, the Panthers have traditionally struggled at home, and have 2 more road wins than home wins this decade. I don’t know to go with here but I’m going to go with the Panthers because of Delhomme as opposed to Old Neck Beard. But I think it’ll be another 1 or 2 point win.
Buffalo (+5.5) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags cover.
Comment: Clearly Vegas can not be that impressed with Buffalo’s stampede of Seattle or Jacksonville’s queef against the Titans. Last year the Jags lost to the Titans in week 1 and then won 4 straight. They are 18-6 at home over the last 3 seasons; Buffalo is 22 games under .500 on the road this decade. I’ll be honest, I don’t know how the Bills always manage to stay in games and compete. I think the Jags will play better this week and win by at least a touchdown.
New Orleans (-1) @ Washington
Pick: Saints cover.
Comment: This to me is the most peculiar spread of week 2. What on earth could make anybody think that the Redskins will be ready to play football on Sunday? They looked like amateurs last Thursday. Personally I think Jim Zorn may be in over his head and Jason Campbell looks lost. Meanwhile, everybody always talks about the Saints and New Orleans and their fans but truth be told the Superdome is cursed and it has been for its entire existence. The Saints often struggle at home. They are actually 10 games under .500 at home this decade and 7 games over .500 on the road.
Indianapolis (-1) @ Minnesota
Pick: Colts cover.
Comment: I think this is one of the harder games of the week to predict. On the one hand you expect the Colts to rebound; on the other hand they got gashed by the Bears on the ground and now they are going up against All Day and All Night (Peterson and Taylor). The Vikes have had just 3 winning seasons this decade but are 18 games over .500 at home. However, the Colts can win anywhere, and I’m talking Peyton over Jackson. Personally I think Tarvaris Jackson is a hopeless prospect. Sure he can burn the defense with his legs every once and a while but that’s secondary to the fact that he sucks at passing the football. We’ve seen the same sort of thing from Mike Vick and from Vince Young. You’re either an NFL caliber passer or you aren’t; it doesn’t get better.
New York Giants (-9) @ St. Louis
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: The Giants looked pretty good in week 1 and we all know about their prowess on the road. Meanwhile, the Lambs look like one of the weaker teams in the League again, despite the fact that they seem to have some talented players on their roster.
Sunday’s Late Games
San Francisco (+7) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover.
Comment: Seattle is hurting bad and coming off an embarrassing loss to the Bills but even with all of their injuries they have got to be better than the Niners in all facets of the game. More importantly, as we know, Qwest Field is one of the tougher plays to win in the NFL. The Seahawks are really a below average team on the road. This decade they are now 9 games under .500 in away games. But it hasn’t kept them from making the playoffs year in and year out because they have gone 45-19 at home. Meanwhile the Niners are an abysmal 8-32 on the road over the last 5 seasons and they just lost by 10 at home to Arizona.
Atlanta (+9) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs win but Falcons beat the spread.
Comment: I guess Vegas was not impressed by the Falcons blowout victory over the favored Lions in week 1. Well, it’s hard to blame them for being skeptical. This will be Ryan’s first road start and the Bucs figure to be able to play the run way, way better than Detroit. However, I’m not scared of the Buccaneer offense, particularly if Garcia is banged up and not as mobile as normal. But the thing is that the Falcs have always had difficulty in Tampa. When the Bucs are good they are usually very tough to beat at home. It’s only been one game and it was against a lousy opponent but I have enough faith in this Falcons team already to say that they will be competitive in this game, though I just don’t think it’s likely that they will win.
Miami (+6.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover.
Comment: Clearly the Dolphins are improved but I think Arizona is a decent team. The Fins are 7-26 on the road the last 4 years. Arizona has not had a winning record in this decade and they are 44-85 overall! That’s pretty bad, but considering that horrid won-loss record, the fact that they are just 4 games under .500 at home is pretty impressive. Also, they just won on the road by 10 (yeah, it was against SF) so maybe they are going to build on last year’s 8-8 record and achieve their first winning record since 1998.
New England (+1) @ New York Jets
Pick: Patriots pull off the upset.
Comment: Man, there are going to be so many times this season that football fans are deprived of seeing something great due to that hit on Tom Brady. We were supposed to get not 1 but 2 Brady vs. Favre matchups this year. It was supposed to take the Jets-Patriots rivalry to another level. But alas it is all gone by the wayside. The Jets will be looking to kick their hated rivals when they are down but I just have a feeling that the Patriots are going to rally around each other and rise up for at least this one game.
Baltimore (+4) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover.
Comment: I don’t really have much of a feel for this one. The Ravens have a rookie QB going on the road but the Texans got beat down in week 1. I’m going to rely on the home/road splits. I don’t think this is a particularly strong Baltimore team and when they are mediocre the Ravens are normally bad on the road. They were 1-7 in away games last year and 0-8 on the road in 2005. The Texans have gone 10-6 at home the last 2 years.
San Diego (-1) @ Denver
Pick: Chargers cover.
Comment: It appears that Vegas feels that the Broncos are back. I’m not convinced. Oakland blows. Mile High is one of the tougher plays to play in all of football, with the Broncos going 46-18 there this decade. But the Chargers are 20-12 on the road the last 4 seasons and they’ve won 4 straight against Denver, winning by an average of 23.5 points, including last year’s 41-3 ass whopping at Mile High.
Sunday Night’s Game
Pittsburgh (-6) @ Cleveland
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: I’m starting to wonder if the Browns are going to revert to their below mediocre ways this year after their 10 win season last year that brought so much hope to the fan base. Either way, the Steelers own Cleveland. They have won 9 straight against the Browns. Yes, that’s right, 9 straight, winning by an average of 15.5 points. They’ve won their last 5 in Cleveland, winning by an average of 18.6 points.
Monday Night’s Game
Philadelphia (+7) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Eagles beat the spread.
Comment: The Boys began last year by covering the spread each week before they slowed down. I wonder if they are really a TD better than the Eagles. Dallas was 5-2 against the spread as a home favorite, but the Eagles came into Dallas as 10 point dogs and beat the Cowboys 10-6. The Eagles have won 2 straight in Dallas, beating the Boys 23-7 as a 7 point dog in 2006 on Monday Night. Actually, Philly is one of the better road dogs in the NFL. They are 21-10 against the spread as a road dog this decade. I’ll give Dallas the nod straight up but I think the Eagles will make it a close one.
No comments:
Post a Comment