Friday, September 26, 2008

The Bulldawg Blog: Week 4 Review/Week 5 Preview




Last Week’s Game: #3 Georgia @ Arizona State, Win, 27-10

General Comments: I was worried there for a while but in the end I was pretty content with Georgia’s performance in their big win on the road at Arizona State last Saturday. I assume most Dawg fans were as satisfied as I was when it was all said and done. This game had so much of the unknown that it was hard to know what to expect. Going into the game I was concerned about the travel and the heat, but it seemed like the Dawgs handled all of that about as well as anyone could have hoped for. As for the ASU crowd, I was not impressed. Not only were they not very loud, they were taken out of the game easily. And how about all of those Dawg people that showed up and made their presence felt in the desert?!! A big “Hell Yeah!” to all of those UGA supporters in attendance.



I was also concerned about Georgia’s struggles getting pressure on the quarterback during the first 3 weeks of the season. I knew that ASU had an experienced, accurate QB and I was worried that Carpenter might have time to just sit back and pick our defense apart. I was also concerned about the deep threat receivers they had. And I knew that Carpenter had been effective against the blitz over his career. However, I also knew that ASU’s offensive line was its major weakness and the Dawgs ended up being able to pressure Carpenter just like every other team that has played the Sun Devils in the last 2 years. Early on I was a little nervous that ASU would be able to move the ball through the air consistently but that never really came about. I wasn’t all that impressed by Carpenter or his receivers, to be honest. And the key to the game was probably ASU’s inability to do anything at all on the ground against the Dawg defense. Georgia made ASU one dimensional from the start and that always helps a great deal.



The other major worry I had going into the game concerned the offensive line. The O-line struggled in the first road contest of the year the week before at South Carolina, and I was concerned about the talent that ASU had on the defensive line. Early in the game I was afraid that the OL was again going to be a major problem and hindrance to the offense. But the line eventually got it together and the protection ended up being pretty strong. For one thing, the ASU crowd had essentially no affect on Stafford and the Georgia offense. The line gave Stafford time to throw and opened up holes for the running game most of the night.



I know that ASU’s stature had been greatly lowered following their loss at home to UNLV, but I still feel that this was a significant victory for Georgia. ASU is a decent opponent and the desert has been a tough place for eastern teams to play in historically. It was Georgia’s first trip west since 1960. And the game was played in 99 degree heat. Also, the Dawgs could have easily won by more than a 27-10 score. For one thing, the game ended with the Dawgs at the ASU 1 yard line. Had they wanted to, the Dawgs could have tried much harder to get in the end zone again, and they could have at least made sure to add a field goal that would have given them 30 points. In addition, the Dawgs were clearly victimized by some questionable officiating by a Pac-10 crew that lived up to that conference’s reputation for having some of the worst referees in college football.



The Good: The Dawgs ended up handing ASU a sound beating. UGA outgained ASU by 249 yards, 461-212, and had 10 more first downs (24-14). You have to start with the job that the Bulldawg defense did against ASU, particularly against the run. UGA held ASU to just 4 yards rushing on 19 attempts, an average of just 0.2 yards per carry, and did not allow a run longer than 11 yards all night. That was ASU’s lowest rushing total since November of 2002. UGA linebacker Rennie Curran essentially took over the game on several occasions. The Dawgs defense forced a fumble, sacked Carpenter 4 times, hurried him countless other times, and limited the senior QB to just 208 yards on 36 attempts. The Sun Devils went just 2 for 11 on 3rd down conversions and were 0 for 1 on 4th down. The Dawgs held ASU to just a FG in the first half, allowed just 1 TD all game, and shutout the Sun Devils in the 4th quarter.



But perhaps the biggest development of the game was the standout performance by highly touted freshman WR AJ Green. This was an absolute coming out party for Green, who caught 8 passes for 159 yards and a TD, averaging 19.9 yards per catch. And of course, the guy throwing the ball was awesome again. For me, the performance of QB Matthew Stafford through 4 games has been the most positive element of the season thus far for Georgia. Stafford’s excellent passing has only been outdone by the job he has done leading the team. Matty was again on his game this past Saturday, going 16 of 28 for a career high 285 yards and a TD. And once again, Stafford did not throw an interception. Knowshon Moreno was impressive as always, running for 149 yards on 23 carries, averaging 6.5 yards per carry, and scoring a pair of TD’s. As a team, the Dawgs outgained ASU 176-4 on the ground. The O-line led the way for that rushing success and allowed just 1 sack for a loss of 7 yards. The Dawgs scored all 5 times that they were in the red zone other than the last possession of the game, and other than that they have gotten points in 15 of 15 trips inside the red zone on the year.



The Dawgs special teams did a pretty good job again last Saturday, getting a blocked punt in the first half. Ramarcus Brown had a 44 yard kick return. Georgia punters did well once again, putting a pair of punts inside the 20, and kicker Brian Walsh went 2 for 3 on FG tries, and had a 54 yard attempt hit off an upright.



The Bad: I honestly can’t complain about much. The Dawgs were fortunate to fall on all three of their fumbles, including 2 by Stafford. And kickoffs continue to be a major problem for the Dawgs. The Dawgs also committed a ton of penalties again, 12 to be exact, for a total of 104 yards. But a lot of those penalties were highly questionable calls by the officials, including a very weak roughing the passer call, a phantom tripping penalty, and a ridiculous 15 yard penalty for landing on a teammate while trying to block a field goal. Defensively, the only real letdown came on the opening drive of the second half, when ASU went 71 yards in 9 plays for a TD that got them back in the game. Offensively, the Dawgs were unable to convert on a few scoring opportunities that could have put the game away earlier or made the final score more lopsided. But again, this is nitpicking, as the Dawgs played their most complete game of the year on Saturday.



Next Week: vs. #8 Alabama

Preview: The level of difficulty continues to escalate this Saturday, as the Dawgs go up against Alabama, one of the hottest teams in the country. Fortunately, the Dawgs will be at home, and they come into the game relatively healthy. For the first time this year, the Dawgs will be going up against an opponent that comes into the game riding a wave of momentum. Georgia faced South Carolina a week after the Gamecocks lost to Vandy, and then went to ASU a week after the Devils fell to UNLV. Georgia’s last two opponents were coming off crippling losses that had dropped them out of the rankings. By contrast, the Tide has been rolling all year long, and comes into this game 4-0 and ranked 8th in the country. Personally, I don’t get the feeling that Alabama comes into this game intimidated in any way. In fact, it seems like the Alabama players and coaches are looking at this game as an opportunity to elevate themselves into National Title contention. They also want to avenge the loss they were handed by the Dawgs at home last season in OT.



As we all know, Alabama’s season was kick started by their convincing win over highly rated Clemson at the Georgia Dome in the first week of the season. That put Bama on the map this year so to speak and they’ve been climbing the rankings ever since. They won 20-6 over Tulane at home in week 2, then blew out Western Kentucky at home in week 3. Last week they hammered Arkansas 49-14 on the road. While their last 3 wins have all come over weak opponents, the way that the Crimson Tide has won these last 3 games has been impressive to me. The Tide has had difficulty at times taking care of business against lesser opponents over the last few years. In the past few years, Bama has struggled against Vandy teams that they should have handled easily and struggled against bad Ole Miss teams. They have struggled against Hawaii, Duke, and Houston at home. Bama has lost to Mississippi State teams that they should have beaten in each of the last two years. And last year they lost to FSU at a neutral site and got beat at home by ULM. My point is that Bama has often underperformed against lesser opponents over the last few years. They were 3-11 against the spread as favorites over the last 2 seasons. This season Alabama has done a better job of taking care of business against weaker teams. Bama didn’t play well against Tulane but they managed to win by 14 points, and then they thrashed WK and Arkansas the last two weeks. To me, Bama looks better right now than they did at any point last year.



Bama has played well in “big games” so far under Nick Saban, blowing out Tennessee last year and nearly upsetting LSU, and then creaming Clemson in the opener this year. You know that Saban, like the players and the other coaches, wants to win this game badly. And the Alabama fans may want this game more than anybody. As everyone knows, Bama has fallen off in the last 15 years and has rarely been relevant during this decade. The Tide faithful believe that Saban will eventually return Bama to its spot among the top college football programs in the land. After a disappointing first year, Bama seems to be ahead of schedule in Saban’s second year in Tuscaloosa, and a win on Saturday would officially mark the Tide’s return to National Championship contention.



When Saban took the job at Alabama I felt certain that he would elevate the program higher than it has been since the early 90’s. Bama will never be as dominant as it was under Bear Bryant, but I thought that Saban would make Bama a force in the SEC and on the national landscape. As far as elevating a program through an on-field system, recruiting, and motivation, I think Saban is among the best coaches in college football. And I have to admit that in terms of strategy and in-game coaching, Saban scares me as much as any coach in the country. I know that he has the ability to get the most out of his players through both motivation and strategy/scheme. He can influence the game as a coach in a way that not all winning coaches can. Bama probably underachieved last year and they have a stronger team this season, but I think Saban’s presence on the sidelines makes them an even more formidable opponent than they otherwise would be.



The thing that worries me the most about this game is the matchup between the offensive and defensive lines. Bama has a very good offensive line, led by standout center Antoine Caldwell, and left tackle Andre Smith, who is perhaps the best in all of college football at his position. Bama’s rushing attack has been so effective this year they have basically been able to dominate defenses without having to throw the ball. John Parker Wilson has completed 59.6% of his passes this year but has thrown for just 542 yards. Bama is 106th in the country in passing. It hasn’t been necessary for the Tide to be that effective in the passing game because they have had so much success on the ground. Bama is 14th in the country in rushing, averaging 236.8 rushing yards a game. They have a stable of good backs, but the standout RB so far for Bama has been Glen Coffee, who has rushed for 404 yards on 47 carries, averaging 8.6 yards a carry. Georgia’s defense has been extremely stout against the run this year, and the Dawgs must contain Bama’s running game enough to force them to pass more. While Bama’s offense has been led almost completely by the run, they do have some good receivers and a decent QB. The Dawgs have had some difficulty at times defending the pass this season and they have struggled to get a pass rush much of the time. The Dawgs are already without DT Jeff Owens for the rest of the year and they may again be without DE Roderick Battle this week. The Dawgs will need to find a way to pressure Wilson on Saturday without giving up big plays or making themselves vulnerable against the run.



I’m concerned about the matchup of the lines on the other side of the ball as well. Georgia has maintained a balanced offensive attack so far this year and they need to be balanced again on Saturday against Bama. Bama has allowed just 55 yards a game on the ground this year, 7th best in the country, so the Georgia O-line will have its work cut out for them this week. The Dawgs O-line is inexperienced and still figuring things out on pass protection. If Georgia is forced to rely more on the passing game and is put into a lot of obvious passing situations, it will make things much more difficult for the offensive line.



One other thing I’m worried about is kicking off. The Dawgs have given opponents great field position much of the time this year due to short kicks and kicks out of bounds. Obviously, giving the opposition good field position is never good, but there is an added danger this week because of the presence of Javier Arenas, a very dangerous return man for the Tide. Georgia has to do a better job on kickoffs this Saturday.



I really have no idea what’s going to happen this Saturday. Obviously nobody really knows the outcome of a game beforehand but I normally have some feeling one way or the other. In this case, I’m not really sure how good either team is. I feel like we’ll know a lot more about both teams after this game. The Dawgs have won 11 straight overall and 5 straight in the SEC going back to last October. UGA has won 7 straight between the hedges and 9 straight non-road games. The Dawgs are 3-0 against Alabama under Mark Richt, 1-0 at home. Under Richt, the Dawgs are 2-2 against Saban coached teams, 1-0 at home. The Dawgs are favored by 7 points, as they were in each of their last two games.



It’s clear that both teams are looking at this as a special game. ESPN's Game Day will be returning to Athens for the first time since 1998. Georgia’s players persuaded Richt to bring out the black jerseys, and Georgia fans will again be coming to the game wearing all black. To be honest, I feel conflicted over the black jerseys being worn again. On the one hand, it’s really up to the team to decide how often and on what occasions to call for the blackout. I do think this is a game worthy of bringing out the black jerseys and if it gives the team and the fans an extra boost of energy than I’m all for it. But I had been hoping that the blackout would become more of a special tradition, something that occurred very rarely. I don’t think using the black jerseys more often or calling for a blackout more frequently will take away from the original event (last year against Auburn), but I do think that each subsequent time will be less special unless it happens very infrequently and only on very special occasions. In a practical sense, I also think it will be less effective as a motivational tool if used on a regular basis.




Whatever, in the end it won’t be the color of the jerseys or the color worn by the crowd that wins or losses this game. The Dawgs aren’t overmatched in this game and they will have the crowd behind them. If the Dawgs stay balanced offensively, limit the Tide rushing attack and get pressure on the quarterback, and avoid costly turnovers and penalties, I see Georgia winning this game.


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