Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-5); Moneyline Upsets (2-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (20-20); Moneyline Upsets (5-3)
Week 4 Review: Okay, this is getting silly. I mean, how can you possibly go 5-5 against the spread 4 weeks straight? You’d think that just by luck I would have had a really good or bad week by this point, but so far it hasn’t happened. I think the message here is that I have no clue what I’m doing so it is literally like flipping a coin, and so far the averages have played out.
Week 5 Preview: This is a very interesting week but it seems weighted towards favorites. For that reason (and because nothing else has worked this year) I’m going with all favorites this week. I don’t see any good moneyline upsets this week so I’m going with a pretty weak selection. But whatever, I gave 3 legit picks last week and went 2-1, so I can slack off on moneyline picks this week.
Thursday
Game 1: USC (-25.5) @ Oregon State
Pick: USC covers
Comment: I know OSU upset the Trojans when they were ranked #3 back in 2006, but I don’t see that happening here. USC has been dominant in their two games this season and they’re coming off a bye week. OSU lost to Stanford and got beat by 31 against PSU in their first two games, and their home game against Hawaii isn’t relevant. I’ll take USC to win by 40 or so.
Saturday
Game 2: Pittsburgh (-15) @ Syracuse
Pick: Pittsburgh covers
Comment: It might not be safe to trust the Panthers just yet but come on! This is Syracuse we’re talking about. Pittsburgh has got to be able to beat the Cuse by at least 15 points. Syracuse has lost to NW by 20, lost to Akron by 14, lost to Penn State by 42, and beaten Northeastern by 9. If Pitt doesn’t win by 21 points it’s a disgrace.
Game 3: Army (+28) @ Texas A&M
Pick: Texas A&M covers
Comment: I realize that A&M just got beat down at home and that they’ve already lost to Arkansas State at home this year, but at this point, I really believe Army is the worst team in the FBS. So far they’re 0-3 with a 28 point loss to Temple, an 18 point loss to New Hampshire, and a 19 point loss to Akron, all at home. A&M should be able to beat Army by at least 30, and you know they’ll have no mercy at this point after what they’ve gone through so far this year.
Game 4: Wisconsin (-6) @ Michigan
Pick: Wisconsin covers
Comment: Over the last few years we’ve seen that regardless of how vulnerable Michigan and Ohio State look out of conference, they are still able to maintain a certain level of success against the rest of the Big Ten. But the Michigan team we’ve seen so far this season has been way worse than any in recent history. I think the Badgers will roll to any easy win.
Game 5: Colorado (+5.5) vs. FSU
Pick: FSU Covers
Comment: This one takes place in Jacksonville. This might seem like a strange pick, seeing as how Colorado just knocked off West Virginia, while the Seminoles got shutdown by Wake at home. But I still don’t see the Buffs going all the way to Florida and doing better than they did last year when they lost 16-6 to FSU at home.
Game 6: Arkansas (+27) @ Texas
Pick: Texas covers
Comment: I thought Texas would destroy Arkansas a few weeks ago but the game was postponed due to the weather. If anything, I’m more convinced that Texas will crush the Hogs now than I was a few weeks ago. Arkansas just lot by 35 at home to Bama. There’s no reason to think they’ll do any better on the road against UT.
Game 7: Navy (+15.5) @ Wake Forrest
Pick: Wake Forrest covers
Comment: WF could have a hangover after their big win in Tallahassee but 15.5 points just doesn’t seem like a lot at home against Navy. Navy got their first win of the season last week by beating Rutgers at home, but on the road this year they’ve lost to Ball State by 12 and to Duke by 10. I don’t see them staying within 3 TD’s on the road at Wake.
Game 8: Illinois (+14) @ Penn State
Pick: Penn State covers
Comment: I’ve gone with PSU each week and I’m going to continue to go with them until they let me down. Penn State’s scored at least 45 points in each game this season and they have yet to allow more than 14 points in any game. Illinois gave up 52 points to Missouri, allowed 21 points to Eastern Illinois, and had to hang on to beat Louisiana-Lafayette, 20-17.
Game 9: Nevada (+3.5) @ UNLV
Pick: UNLV covers
Comment: Okay, UNLV has now convinced me that they are a legitimate football team. They’ve won consecutive overtime games over ASU and Iowa State, and they are 2-0 at home. UNLV has won 3 of the last 4 at home against Nevada, and last year on the road they lost 27-20, with Nevada scoring the winning TD with 27 seconds left. Nevada is 14-36 on the road this decade.
Game 10: Mississippi State (+24) @ LSU
Pick: LSU covers
Comment: Frankly, I’ll be shocked if LSU doesn’t win this game by 30 points. Mississippi State may have held Auburn to 3 points a couple of weeks ago, but on the road this year they have lost to Louisiana Tech by 8 and to Georgia Tech by 31. They embarrassed the SEC last week with their performance against the Jackets. I was impressed by LSU’s win on the road against Auburn.
Moneyline Specials
I really don’t feel good about any of the underdogs this weekend. As a result, I’m only picking one moneyline upset this week and it’s barely an upset.
Purdue over Notre Dame: Purdue is a 1.5 point underdog on the road against the Irish this Saturday. Purdue hasn’t had much luck in South Bend over the years but they’ve been a decent road team lately. I don’t have a lot of reasoning to base this on, I just have a hunch. And I hate Notre Dame.
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