The College Football Blog: Week 4 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-5); Moneyline Upsets (1-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (15-15); Moneyline Upsets (3-2)

Week 3 Review: Well it was business as usual for me last week as I went 5-5 for the 3rd week in a row and also earned a split in my 2 moneyline upsets. My worst pick of the week was definitely Cal, which was favored by 14 and lost by 7, but at one point was down 20-3. Memphis was the moneyline upset that I lost and they fell by a point to Marshall.

Week 4 Preview: Once again there are a ton of great games to choose from this week. If I can finally break .500 this week I’ll be pumped. Here are my 10 games plus a few moneyline upsets.

Thursday
Game 1: West Virginia (-3) @ Colorado
Pick: West Virginia beats the spread
Comment: I know WV got beat down, 24-3, at ECU but I can’t completely change my view of the Mountaineers based on 1 game. I understand that Colorado is a different team at home than they are on the road, but they still aren’t a very good team home or away. They’re only 6-8 in their last 14 home games, and in their last game they beat East Washington 31-24.

Friday
Game 2: Baylor (+12) @ UConn
Pick: UConn covers
Comment: UConn just spanked UVA at home where they've won 9 straight. Baylor has lost 10 of 11 on the road.

Saturday
Game 3: Miss State (+8) @ Georgia Tech
Pick: Miss State beats the spread
Comment: This one kind of goes against what my head tells me because I think the Jackets are much better than expected and MSU lost to Louisiana Tech in their first road game. But this is the type of game Tech has lost over the last few years and I expect MSU to keep it close.

Game 4: Temple (+28) @ Penn State
Pick: Penn State covers
Comment: PSU has been a safe bet for me this year so why change now when they’re playing another push over at home?

Game 5: Utah (-8) @ Air Force
Pick: Air Force beats the spread
Comment: AF has won 7 straight home games and 13 of the last 17 games between these two teams has been decided by 8 points or less.

Game 6: Rice (+28.5) @ Texas
Pick: Texas covers
Comment: Texas got last week off while Rice lost to Vandy by 17. The Horns have won 37 of 38 over Rice and they’ve won the last 5 by an average of 39 points.

Game 7: Ohio (+10.5) @ Northwestern
Pick: Ohio beats the spread
Comment: Ohio hung tough with the Buckeyes and lost by a point and 3 points in their other two games. I feel like they can at least stay within 10 of NW.

Game 8: Wyoming (+28) @ BYU
Pick: BYU covers
Comment: Wyoming has beaten Ohio by a point, lost to AF by 20, and beaten North Dakota State by 3 and all 3 games have come at home. Now they are going to Provo where BYU just beat UCLA 59-0.

Game 9: Buffalo (+34) @ Missouri
Pick: Missouri covers
Comment: My first reaction was to think this spread too large but Missouri has made a habit out of pummeling overmatched opponents in the last two years.

Game 10: Florida (-7.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Tennessee beats the spread
Comment: I don’t know about this one. I just have a hunch that Tennessee will get up for this one, and I was not that impressed with the Gators’ performance against Miami.

Moneyline Specials

Once again I didn’t really see a lot of great moneyline options. This week there weren’t even a few slight underdogs that I felt strongly would win. But I’m going with 3 underdogs that I have a hunch could pull out a win.

Vandy over Mississippi: Vandy is a 7 point dog on the road. I expected Ole Miss to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year. While the Rebels have definitely not disappointed, Vandy has been way better than I expected. This game has been extremely close in recent years and I think it will be again. Maybe this is Vandy’s year.

Wake Forrest over Florida State: The Deacons are 4 point dogs on the road. They’ve won 2 straight over the Noles and 10 of their last 13 road games. FSU has not yet played a game against a real team, while WF has already played a road game against an FBS opponent, and won a tight game against an SEC team.

Auburn over LSU: Auburn is a 2.5 point dog at home this weekend. Auburn is 49-10 at home this decade while LSU is 24-12 on the road. This will be Andrew Hatch’s first experience in an SEC road game. This game has been ridiculously close recently and the home team has won the last 8 years. Expect another low scoring, hard hitting, and defensive game.