Wednesday, October 1, 2008

The Baseball Blog: 2008 MLB Postseason Predictions





Okay, so I didn’t exactly predict the regular season accurately but I get a second chance with a fresh start in the postseason. Here’s how I see things playing out now that we know all of the players invited.

American League Playoffs

ALDS

Angels vs. Red Sox
Prediction: Angels over Red Sox (3-2)

You talk about yet another reason why the ALDS should be changed to a best of 7 series. God damn Major League Baseball is frustrating! Anyway, we’ve known for sometime now that whoever didn’t win the AL East between the Rays and Red Sox was going to have to face Anaheim (or Los Angeles if you must) in the first round, and it ended up being Boston. Everybody knows how the Angels have faired against Boston in postseasons passed, getting swept by the Sox twice in the ALDS over the last few years, and you can even go all the way back to Dave Henderson and Donnie Moore back in ’86. But this is a different year. I wouldn’t bet against Boston if they had Josh Beckett at 100% but he just isn’t. I know he’s going to pitch game 3 but how much better is his side going to get over the next few days? And now it’s almost certain that Beckett will pitch no more than 1 game in this series. Without the real Beckett, Boston has a good but not great rotation. The bullpen is shaky other than Papelbon. We know Boston is a force at the plate but there’s no Manny, JD Drew and Mike Lowell are gimpy, Big Papi is not as big as he once was, and Jason Varitek really doesn’t exist anymore offensively. On the other side, the Angels have a great rotation and an outstanding bullpen. Offensively, the Angels have always had smart hitters, good base runners, and speed. With Mark Teixeira in the middle of the lineup with Vlad, they can now hurt you with power. I’ve got to much respect for Francona and the Red Sox to count them out completely but I’m picking the Angels in this one.

Rays vs. White Sox
Prediction: Rays over White Sox (3-1)

I could never quite believe that the Twins would make the playoffs but if they had I would have given them a better chance against Tampa than the Chi Sox. For one thing, Minnesota has a tremendous homefield advantage in the playoffs. The White Sox are a power team and they play in a yard that suits a powerful team but playing in the Metrodome is almost like playing a completely different game because of the field, the noise, and the roof. The White Sox won the whole thing back in 2005 when their starting pitching got on a roll and just wiped out the competition. They don’t have the staff to do that this season. And they are a banged up team with Carlos Quentin and Joe Crede out and Paul Konerko hurting. I would absolutely love to see the White Sox go deep in this postseason because I like their fans, I love Ozzie, and I’d love to see Junior Griffey and Jim Thome take a run at a ring. But I don’t see it happening. Tampa doesn’t really do anything spectacular, they just keep winning. I love Joe Maddon and whatever he’s done this season has worked so far, and often times when teams come out of the blue and succeed like the Rays have done they end up going for a long ride. I’m obviously concerned about their bullpen and they are missing Carl Crawford from the lineup, but they have a strong rotation. They haven’t folded under the pressure so far and I think they’ll keep it going through at least the first round.





ALCS

Angels vs. Rays
Prediction: Angels over Rays (4-2)
MVP: John Lackey

While I do see the Rays winning a series in the playoffs, I’m not going to pick them to make it to the World Series. I wouldn’t be all that surprised if they do make it there, especially if they end up meeting Boston in the ALCS, but I’m going with the Angels to win the AL pennant. I like their rotation, bullpen, and offense better than Tampa’s. The managers are both great and each team is solid defensively. Anaheim has the experience and I think they’re the best team so I’m picking them to go to the Series.

National League Playoffs

NLDS

Phillies vs. Brewers
Prediction: Phillies over Brewers (3-2)

It was a crazy year again in the NL but in the end I feel like the top 3 teams got in and I’d rather have anybody make it over the 4th best team (The Mutts). When considering this series I’ve been thinking back to last season when Philly came in hot and went up against an even hotter team in the Rockies, who had just won a play-in game against the Padres. The Phillies got steamrolled by the Rocks and were done in 3 games. This season neither team is all that hot. The Phillies look like the better team at first glance but they have some major weaknesses. They have power up and down the lineup and there are no easy outs when they are going right. The problem is that they have a tendency to fall into 5 or 10 game stretches where they aren’t going right and during those times they can be very easy outs. If the lineup slumps the way it did last year in the NLDS they will clearly be in a lot of trouble. Their other weakness is the rotation. It’s not really a weakness; in fact it’s pretty strong. But their potential horse—Brett Myers—is as flakey as they come. If he pitches to the best of his ability he can shut a team down for 9 innings but he can just as easily walk the world and allow 5 runs in the 1st inning. Their “best pitcher” is Cole Hamels but he hasn’t proven yet to be a guy who can pitch deep into games consistently over a number of starts and shut teams down. Once again, it all depends on which guy shows up. The Phillies greatest strength is their bullpen. That’s probably the biggest area of concern for Milwaukee, although their offense can falter at times and the rotation is a question mark. CC Sabathia is one of the true aces of the game but how much longer can he keep this up? And who else is going to step up and pitch well for the Brew Crew? You simply can’t put any confidence in Ben Sheets. If Sheets was 100% I might go with Milwaukee to win but without him I have to go with Philly, although I think it’ll be a battle.

Cubs vs. Dodgers
Prediction: Cubs over Dodgers (3-2)

While I’m not even sure the Dodgers were the 6th best team in the NL during the season, I don’t think this is the cake walk for the Cubs that everyone thinks it is. The Cubbies have some bullpen questions and Carlos Zambrano has been up and down recently. Big Z’s arm is a concern for me at this point and even if he is 100% and his arm isn’t worn out, he has a tendency to “overthrow” in big games because he gets so hyped up. And it’s the Cubs, people! They’re going to have a great advantage at home and their idiotic fans will be a presence on the road for as long as the Cubs are in the postseason. They’ve also been great at scoring runs and preventing runs all year. But what if they lose a game? What if they go to a game 5? Will the pressure and the ghosts get to them and start affecting their play? We’ll see. As for LA, unlike most people, I actually think they have a rotation that can shut teams down in the playoffs. Make no mistake: Derrick Lowe can be as tough on a lineup with his sinker as a stud fireballer can be with his high heat. There are guys behind him capable of throwing up some zeros as well. They have a solid pen and Manny Ramirez has transformed the lineup into one good enough for the Dodgers to win with. I think the Cubs will win but I think it’ll be interesting.




NLCS

Cubs vs. Phillies
Prediction: Cubs over Phillies (4-3)
MVP: Alfonso Soriano

These are the two best teams in the NL in my opinion. If it gets to this point I think that the Cubs will have a slight edge because they will get as many as 4 games at Wrigley and they’ll the potential of pitching Dempster, Zambrano, and Harden twice each. That’s pretty tough. I would expect a great series but I’d give the edge to the Cubbies.





World Series
Angels vs. Cubs
Prediction: Angels over Cubs (4-2)
MVP: Francisco Rodriguez

I believe and have believed for a few months now that these were the two best teams in the Majors. They both have great rotations and strong offenses. They are well managed and they play good defense. I like the Angels because of their huge edge in the bullpen. Also, I’m just not ready for the Cubs to win the World Series. I hate their fans too much.

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