Last Week: Vs. Spread (4-6); Moneyline Upsets (0-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (33-36-1); Moneyline Upsets (8-10)
Week 7 Review: Well I got a little cocky after my first big week of the season and I got slapped in the face with a 4-6 ATS/0-5 on Moneyline upsets last week. My worst picks were Michigan -17 over Toledo (they lost by 3) and Missouri -13.5 over Oklahoma State (they lost by 5). I also picked LSU and Wisconsin to win and they lost by 30 and 41 respectively.
Week 8 Preview: After such a brutal week I’m hoping just to go .500. I’ve decided to stay away from taking favorites with big spreads. I’m taking more underdogs this week. But obviously I’ve got no clue. I’d be happy just to go 5-5 the way I did for so many weeks in a row to start the season.
Thursday
Game 1: BYU (-2) @ TCU
Pick: BYU covers
Comment: I definitely think this will be a close game but 2 points is not a big spread to ask the #9 team in the country to cover, even on the road against a good TCU team. BYU has won the last 2 in this series and is 5-2 overall vs. TCU. The Cougars have averaged 36 points a game against the Horned Frogs over the last 3 years.
Saturday
Game 2: Kansas (+17.5) @ Oklahoma
Pick: Kansas beats the spread.
Comment: I still think the Sooners are National Championship contenders and I think Kansas is overrated; but I have to take 17.5 points if you’re going to give it to me. I think Oklahoma will win fairly easily but 17.5 points is a big number even at home.
Game 3: Memphis (+9.5) @ ECU
Pick: Memphis beats the spread.
Comment: I don’t really have a lot of strategy here but ECU has been in a freefall since their much publicized 3-0 start, and I think the Tigers can keep it close. 9.5 points is a big spread for the Pirates to cover, considering that they’ve lost 3 in a row. They’ve won the last two years by 15 points and 16 points respectively so they might win easily again this year, I just have a hunch it will be closer.
Game 4: Baylor (+16.5) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Baylor beats the spread.
Comment: I think the Cowboys will handle Baylor at home but they’re coming off a big win and they might sleep through the first quarter or two. I think Baylor is better than usual although they usually get trashed on the road in the Big XII or anywhere else for that matter. Still I think they can stay within 16 points this week.
Game 5: Mississippi (+13.5) @ Alabama
Pick: Mississippi beats the spread.
Comment: I’m not calling for a major upset here I just think the Rebels will give Bama a bit of a fight. The Tide has won 4 straight over Ole Miss and 12 of 14, but the last 3 have been by just 3 points a piece—including once in overtime—and last year Bama needed help from the officials to win it. I think the Rebs will keep it fairly close again.
Game 6: VT (+2) @ BC
Pick: VT beats the spread.
Comment: This one surprises me. BC has played no one early again and this year they couldn’t even make it through their first 5 games without a loss, as they fell at home to GT in week 2. VT has won 5 straight since losing on a blocked punt to ECU at a neutral site in week 1. Last year BC came from behind to beat VT in Blacksburg with a pair of 4th quarter TD’s led by Matt Ryan, but VT beat the Eagles, 30-16, in the ACC Championship Game. I think the Hokies will win this one.
Game 7: Missouri (+7) @ Texas
Pick: Missouri beats the spread.
Comment: I think the Horns will win but they are coming off their biggest win in years, while Missouri will be looking to save their season after losing at home to Ok State last week. Texas has won 13 of 14 over Missouri and the Tigers haven’t beaten UT in Austin since 1986! I don’t think Mizzu will win this one but I’m betting on them keeping it within a touchdown.
Game 8: Cal (-2.5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cal covers.
Comment: I think this spread should be bigger. Arizona blows; they lost to New Mexico earlier this year and last week they lost to Stanford. Now, they have been a much better team at home historically and Cal is not as great at team on the road, but I think the Bears are a much better team overall. In 2006, #6 Cal got knocked off in Tucson, 24-20, to see their BCS hopes go down the tubes. The Bears have won 4 of the last 5 against the Cats and this year I think they’ll take care of business.
Game 9: GT (+2) @ Clemson
Pick: Clemson covers.
Comment: Yes, yes, I know, the Tigers are in a tailspin; their coach just “resigned”; Cullen Harper is having surgery; and now CJ Spiller is hurt. Meanwhile, GT is getting healthy and they have won 3 of the last 4 in this series. But Tech is still a work in progress and Clemson usually wins just when you think they’re completely done.
Game 10: Michigan (+24) @ PSU
Pick: PSU covers.
Comment: I went against Penn State last week for the first time all season and paid for it, as they hammered Wisconsin 48-7 on the road. I won’t make that mistake again. Nor will I make the mistake of betting on Michigan again this season. The Nittany Lions have lost 9 straight to Michigan but it won’t matter this Saturday. They should win by at least 40.
Moneyline Specials
Last week I got smacked down to earth with an 0 for 5 after starting the season 8-5 and going 3-1 on moneyline upsets in week 6. As a result I’m cowering this week and going with just 1 moneyline upset. Plus, I really don’t see a lot of choices this week.
Navy over Pitt: Navy is a 3.5 point dog at home against the Panthers this Saturday. Last year Navy won, 48-45, in double OT on the road. I can’t believe Pitt is ranked again just because they’ve won 4 games since losing at home to Bowling Green by 10 points in week 1. Navy has won 3 straight since starting the year 1-2. I like the Midshipmen to win and knock the Panthers out of the top 25 for good.
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