Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-7); Moneyline Upsets (0-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (36-43-1); Moneyline Upsets (8-11)
Week 8 Review: I had my second straight bad week last week and it was easily my worst week of the season, as I picked only 3 of 10 games correctly against the spread, and missed another moneyline game. My worst pick was taking Missouri to beat the 7 point spread against Texas. They lost by 25.
Week 9 Preview: I’m not confident about the games this week but hopefully I can get back on track and save my season. Just a few weeks ago I was around .500 ATS and picking nearly 2 out of 3 moneyline upsets correctly. I’ve now lost 6 straight moneyline picks and I’ve gone below .500 ATS the last two weeks. It’s time to rebound and get started on a late season surge.
Friday
Game 1: Boise State (-7) @ San Jose State
Pick: Boise State covers.
Comment: The last two times Boise State has played in San Jose they have had to work hard to come away with the win. In 2004 they were favored by 33 points on the road but they ended up winning by just 7 points in double OT. In 2006 the Broncos were 13 point favorites but they won by just 3 points, 23-20. I think it could be close again this year, as SJS is decent, but 7 points is not a big spread for the Broncos to cover. If they were favored by double digits I might go against them but I think they have a great chance of winning by more than a TD against any WAC opponent regardless of location.
Saturday
Game 2: Oklahoma (-19) @ Kansas State
Pick: Oklahoma covers.
Comment: KSU lost by 30 at home to Texas Tech so I feel confident that the Sooners can beat them by at least 20 points in Manhattan. Why did KSU pick this week to have homecoming?
Game 3: Minnesota (+1) @ Purdue
Pick: Minnesota beats the spread.
Comment: The Gophers have lost 9 of 10 to Purdue and they haven’t won in West Lafayette since 1990. But they won their last game at Illinois, they’re coming off a bye week, and I just think they are a better team than Purdue. The Boilermakers are always tough at home but I like Minnesota to win their second straight on the road.
Game 4: Kentucky (+23) @ Florida
Pick: Kentucky beats the spread.
Comment: The Cats have lost 21 straight against Florida and the Gators are coming off their best win of the season and then a bye week. But the Gators might overlook Kentucky a bit with the game against Georgia looming ahead. 23 points is a lot. The Cats haven’t lost to Florida by that much since 2001. Last year the Cats were 7 point underdogs at home and they lost by 8; they had beaten the spread against Florida in each of the previous 5 years. The only thing I’m worried about is the slue of injuries that has hit the Cats in the last few weeks. They’ve lost some talent and they might be down psychologically. But they should get up for Florida. I think they can stay within 23 of the Gators even in the Swamp.
Game 5: Oklahoma State (+12.5) @ Texas
Pick: Oklahoma State beats the spread.
Comment: Maybe I’m stupid to think that Oklahoma State can do any better against Texas in Austin than Missouri did but 12.5 points is a big spread considering the fact that both teams come in undefeated. I think Texas will win without much trouble but I’ll take Okie State to stay within 12.
Game 6: UVA (+12) @ Georgia Tech
Pick: UVA beats the spread.
Comment: UVA has improved a ton over the last few weeks and is currently ridding a 3 game win streak. Obviously playing on the road will be a different animal but I think they can keep within 12 points of Tech. Two weeks ago Tech only beat Gardner-Webb by 3 points at home so the Cavs ought to be able to stay at least within 10 points of them.
Game 7: USC (-14.5) @ Arizona
Pick: USC covers.
Comment: USC seems to be in one of those stretches where you can’t imagine how they ever lose a game. Arizona is coming off a big win over Cal but I think USC is determined to win all of their remaining games by as much as possible in order to make up for their weak schedule. The Cats have dropped 6 straight to Troy by an average of 23 points.
Game 8: Bama (-6) @ Tennessee
Pick: Bama covers.
Comment: Bama has not always put teams away this year while compiling a 7-0 record. But they are a much better team than UT. The home team has won the last 4 in this series and 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 8 points or less. But I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think the Tide will win by at least a touchdown.
Game 9: Colorado (+21.5) @ Missouri
Pick: Missouri covers.
Comment: I know that the Tigers are coming off back to back crushing losses, falling at home to Ok State and getting embarrassed by Texas on the road last week. Some are saying that there is now a blue print for stopping Missouri’s offense. But I don’t think the Buffs will be able to stop Missouri. The Tigers will be looking to take their frustration out on somebody and I’m betting that somebody will end up being Colorado.
Game 10: Notre Dame (-11.5) @ Washington
Pick: Washington beats the spread.
Comment: This is just a hunch and it’s probably way off. The Huskies have been stunningly uncompetitive since their controversial 1 point loss to BYU. Washington has never beaten ND before in 6 tries and I’m not saying they’ll win this game either, but I think they might be able to stay within 10 points of the Irish. I’m hoping, of course, that Coach Ty gets his first win of the season against Fat Charlie and his band of Fighting Child Molesters.
Moneyline Specials
I was a little gun shy last week after going 0-5 in week 7 and I only picked 1 moneyline upset. I was way off on my pick but I had the right idea not going for a lot of moneyline games, as there were very few upsets in week 8. This week I’m picking 3 moneyline upsets in hopes of ending my 6 game losing streak.
Auburn over West Virginia: Auburn is a 3.5 point underdog on the road against West Virginia this Thursday. At the start of the season this looked like one of the marquee non-conference matchups of the season. Now it’s just a game between a couple of the most disappointing teams in all of college football. Auburn has lost 3 of 4, including a shocking loss to Arkansas at home in their last game, but they are not as bad as they have looked most of the time this season. They are coming off a bye and their defensive coordinator was Pitt’s DC when they shutdown the Mountaineer offense to pull off a gigantic upset late last season. WV is coming off a bye and has won 3 straight but their wins have been anything but impressive: a 24 point win at home over a weak Marshall team; a 7 point win at home over a very bad Rutgers team; and an 11 point win over an awful Syracuse win. I think the Tigers will get their season turned around with a win on Thursday night.
Ohio State over Penn State: The Buckeyes are actually 2.5 point underdogs at home this week against Penn State. I know I said I wouldn’t bet against Penn State again this year but I’m going back on that promise. The Lions have rolled over the competition this season while building an 8-0 record, but the Bucks have won 5 straight since their loss at USC and they are coming off their best game of the year, a 45-7 win at Michigan State last week. Ohio State is 7-0 vs. PSU since the Lions joined the Big Ten and I think they’ll derail Joe Pa’s National Championship dream with an upset victory this Saturday.
Texas Tech over Kansas: The Red Raiders are 2.5 point underdogs on the road this weekend against Kansas. I don’t think that highly of either of these teams. They’re just a couple of high scoring teams that don’t play much defense. The Red Raiders have won 9 of 10 against the Jayhawks, including 5 straight in Lawrence, and I think Texas Tech will pull out the win on the road to stay undefeated.
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