Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-9); Straight Up (7-7)
Season: Vs. Spread (39-45-4); Straight Up (55-33)
Week 6 Review: I had a terrible week in week 6, picking just 5 spreads correctly, and going just .500 straight up. But I have a feeling a lot of people struggled last week, as there were some pretty confounding outcomes. I picked the Skins and the Vikings to cover their huge spreads, and I also had the Seahawks and the Raiders beating the spread. Yikes!
Week 7 Preview: This week is going to be tough because you have to decide how much stock to put in last week’s games. I’m not sure anymore which teams are awful and which teams are great or if there are any teams that fit under either label. I’m just going on instinct and praying for a .500 mark against the spread.
Sunday’s Early Games
San Diego (-1) @ Buffalo
Pick: Bills pull off the upset.
Comment: I’m a believer in the Bills and the Chargers have been very unpredictable this season. Buffalo will have Trent Edwards back this week and they might still be undefeated if they hadn’t lost him early in their game against the Cardinals. The Bills are coming off a bye week and the Chargers will have to come across country to play at what for them will be 10 AM. The Chargers are just 5-6 on the road in the regular season the last 2 years.
New Orleans (+3) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers cover.
Comment: After 3 straight home games, the Saints go back on the road where they are winless this season. They are getting healthy but I still don’t know what to make of them. The Panthers are 3-0 at home this year. The Panthers are 8-4 against the Saints since realignment but they’re just 2-4 against them at Carolina. This goes back to the idea that neither one of these teams is normally that much better at home than they are on the road. The Panthers are just 32-35 at home this decade and the Saints are 36-31 on the road. Carolina got spanked by the Bucs in Tampa last week but I still think they’re a solid team and the Saints are inconsistent. I think this game will be close but I like the Panthers to win and since it’s a field goal spread I’ll take them to cover.
Vikings (+3) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: The Vikings have won 3 of 4 since an 0-2 start but they have not been impressive. The Bears will be trying to rebound from a heartbreaking defeat in Atlanta in week 6. These two teams have split their last 12 meetings over the last 6 years. Last season the Vikings won in Chicago to snap a 6 game losing streak in the Windy City. I don’t think they’ll do it twice in a row. It’s a field goal spread so I’ll just pick the winner to cover.
Steelers (-9.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: This one is always fun but it’s not quite as interesting this year because the Bengals are so bad. The Steelers are coming off a much needed bye week and they are 10-3 against the Bengals over the last 6 years. Pittsburgh has won 7 straight in Cincinnati. Once again the Bengals will be without Carson Palmer. The Bengals have been more competitive against tougher opponents this year but I think the Steelers will beat them by double digits.
Tennessee (-9) @ Kansas City
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: Both teams are coming off bye weeks but other than that they are moving in different directions. The Titans are the only undefeated team left in the NFL, while the Chiefs are 1-4 and one of the worst teams in the League. Tony Gonzalez asked to be traded and was miffed when he wasn’t moved. Larry Johnson has been suspended for this one by Herm Edwards. The Chiefs will have Brodie Croyle back for this one but the Titans might knock him right back out. Arrowhead was once a very tough place to play, but the Chiefs are just 3-7 at home over the last two years. The Titans are 10-3 in their last 13 regular season road games and they’ve covered the spread in all 5 of their games this year. I expect them to win by double digits on Sunday.
Baltimore (+3) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins cover.
Comment: This is a tricky one. The Ravens looked pretty good until last week, while the Dolphins were just seconds away from a 3rd straight win. Last season the Dolphins got their only win of the season over the Ravens at home in OT. The Ravens are 1-9 in their last 10 road games. I don’t know how the Dolphins’ Wildcat look will fare against Baltimore’s defense but I’m not scared of the Ravens’ offense either. I think the Dolphins will win and it’s a FG spread so I’ll just take the winner to cover.
San Francisco (+10.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: The Giants got whipped in Cleveland on Monday Night Football for their first loss of the season last week but that should have them more focused going into week 7. The Niners have lost 3 straight by 9 points or more since opening the year 2-1. I think the Giants will get back to business and blowout an overmatched San Fran team this week.
Dallas (-7) @ St. Louis
Pick: Cowboys win but Rams beat the spread.
Comment: This is a weird one because we don’t know whether or not Romo will play, and if he does play we don’t know how effective he’ll be. The Cowboys will be without Felix Jones, Adam Jones, and their punter for sure. I expected the Rams to be a decent team this year and they finally won last week but they still didn’t play all that well on either side of the ball, they just made some big plays and got some breaks. I’m going to call for them to stay within a TD because of the Dallas injury questions and because they’re at home but I think the Cowboys will win. I do not see Dallas losing 3 of 4.
Sunday’s Late Games
Detroit (+9.5) @ Houston
Pick: Texans win but Lions beat the spread.
Comment: Detroit should have won last week but they wound up losing again, while the Texans got a last second TD to win for the first time all season. The Texans are better than their record shows and I think they’ll beat a bad Detroit team for their second win in a row. The Texans are 9-3 in their last 12 home games. The Lions have lost 6 straight and 12 of their last 13 games overall, and they have lost 7 straight on the road. Once again the Lions will be going with Dan Orlovsky at QB. For all of these reasons I feel confident that the Texans will win but I’m not ready to pick them to win by 10 yet.
Indianapolis (-1) @ Green Bay
Pick: Colts cover.
Comment: After 3 consecutive losses, the Packers won a must win game at Seattle last week to get back to .500 at 3-3. The Colts played their best game of the season last week in beating the Ravens, 31-3, and they’re 2-0 on the road this season, while the Packers are just 1-2 at Lambeau. Both of these teams have been hurt by injuries but I think the Colts are closer to putting it all together than the Packers are. Indianapolis’ offense has been steadily getting better and Green Bay’s secondary can be thrown on. The Packers have not been able to establish any kind of consistent run game and that will continue to hurt them. I like the Colts to win this one in Green Bay.
New York Jets (-3) @ Oakland
Pick: Jets cover.
Comment: The Raiders had been competitive in the final 3 games under Lane Kiffin but after he was fired during their bye week the Raiders were atrocious in their 24-3 loss at New Orleans in week 6. I don’t really know what to think of the Jets. I would expect them to win this game but I can’t decide exactly how good they are. And you never know what kind of effort the Raiders are going to give. I could see the Jets losing this game somehow but I’m going to pick them to win because I think they’re a better team and because they have Brett Favre. It’s a FG spread so I’ll just take the winner to cover.
Cleveland (+9) @ Washington
Pick: Redskins cover.
Comment: This line started at 7 and has since grown. It seems that a lot of people think the Browns win was a fluke and the Skins will be super focused to come out and prove their loss was also a fluke. I definitely think the Washington loss was a fluke but I’m still leery of them because that loss to the Rams at home was shocking to me. On the other hand, I think the Browns are a decent team but I don’t think they’re as good as they looked last week. They will be without Kellen Winslow again this week it would seem but that didn’t seem to hurt them against the Giants. I’m going to go with the Skins to win by double digits because I still think they are a great team and I do think they’ll be focused for this one.
Sunday Night’s Game
Seattle (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs cover.
Comment: Despite the fact that this is a fairly large spread, to me this is one of the easier picks of the week. Seattle is 1-4, Matt Hasslebeck is out, Deion Branch is out, and they are 3-7 in their last 10 road games. The Bucs have Jeff Garcia back at QB and they are coming off their best game of the season, a 27-3 thumping of the Panthers at home. They’re 4-2 and their two losses are by 4 at New Orleans and by 3 in Denver. They are 5-1 ATS this season, while Seattle is 1-4 ATS. I like the Bucs to completely shutdown the Seattle offense and win big.
Monday Night’s Game
Denver (+3) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: Each week you look at the schedule and see who the Patriots are playing and you think “that should be interesting” until you remember that Brady is gone and that now every New England game is boring. It’s like watching the 93-94 Bulls. I don’t think much of the Broncos, especially on the road, where they’ve won just 3 of their last 10. But I don’t really know what to expect from the Pats anymore. I’ll take them to win because it’s in New England and it’s a FG spread so I’ll just take the winner to cover.
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