Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-5); Straight Up (10-4)
Season: Vs. Spread (48-50-4); Straight Up (65-37)
Week 7 Review: After a dreadful week 6 during which I predicted only half of the winners correctly, I had one of my best weeks of the year in week 7. I flipped my record against the spread around from 5-9 to 9-5 and picked 10 of 14 winners correctly. I will say that I’m quite irritated about the Jets not winning in OT so that I would have at least pushed and gotten the winner right in that game. But I was more annoyed with the Seahawks scoring a late bullshit touchdown to beat the spread by a half point.
Week 8 Preview: I think week 8 is one of the hardest weeks to predict so far this season. For one, everybody’s all confused now after the heartstoppingly close games in week 6 were followed by a week made up almost entirely of one-sided affairs. But it’s also just the paring of some of the more confusing teams in the League in week 8. I don’t know; I’m just hoping for .500 against the spread and another 10 spot picking the winners.
Sunday’s Early Games
Oakland (+7) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover.
Comment: This is an interesting spread. The Herd was talking about this on the radio and saying that Vegas had made a mistake and the spread was too small. He might be right. Baltimore has been competitive every game of this season other than week 6 at Indy when they gave up a couple of big plays very quickly and had to scrap their game plan and throw every down. Each of Baltimore’s 3 wins have been by at least 7 points. They are 2-1 at home this year with a 3 point loss to the Titans and they are 48-19 at home this decade in the regular season. Oakland is 1-2 on the road this year and 7-36 on the road since the start of the 2003 season. I’ll take the Ravens to win by a couple of touchdowns.
Arizona (+4) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers cover.
Comment: The Cardinals are 14-53 on the road this decade. That’s pretty ridiculous. They’re coming off a bye week but in the last two seasons they’ve lost the week after their bye and lost ATS. The Panthers don’t normally have a big homefield advantage but this year the Panthers are 4-0 at home. 4 points means the Cardinals could lose by a field goal and still beat the spread but their 2 losses so far have been by a TD or more and the Panthers’ last 3 wins have been by 15 or more. Arizona might keep it within 6 or so but I’ll take Carolina to win by more than 4.
Tampa Bay (+1) @ Dallas
Pick: Bucs pull off the upset.
Comment: The only reason to pick the Cowboys to win this game is that it’s in Dallas. Otherwise everything points to the Bucs having the advantage. Tampa is a great defense and the Cowboys will be starting Brad Johnson again. The OL for the Boys has underperformed this year and that will be especially bad with the immobile Johnson under center. Tampa is 1-2 on the road this season but they’ve still played well in their 2 losses and the Boys lost to Washington at home earlier this season and they’re 0-3 ATS this year at home. I’ll take the Bucs to keep the Dallas slide going.
Washington (-9) @ Detroit
Pick: Redskins win but Lions beat the spread.
Comment: Since averaging 25.5 points a game over a 4 game win streak the Skins have lost to the Rams at home scoring 17 points and failed to cover the spread against the Browns at home while scoring 14 points. Now they go on the road to play another bad team in the Lions but Detroit has covered in their last two games. I think the Skins will win but they’ll allow the Lions to keep it close.
Buffalo (-1) @ Miami
Pick: Bills cover.
Comment: This must be a trap. The Bills should definitely win this game. Everybody’s seen tape on the “Wildcat” formation by now. The Phins just lost to the Ravens by 14 at home and the Bills won at Jacksonville earlier this year. I like the Bills to win this one easily.
St. Louis (+7) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Rams cover.
Comment: Whether or not it’s a fluke, you’ve got to admit that what the Rams did the last two weeks was impressive. New England was able to run on Denver and that was huge because you don’t want Cassel throwing a lot. I think they can do it against the Rams too but I don’t think St. Louis will be intimidated by the Pats. I think the Pats will win but the Rams will make it close.
San Diego (-3) @ New Orleans
Pick: Chargers cover.
Comment: Why the hell are the Saints going to England for one of their home games? Can’t some team that doesn’t play in New Orleans lose one of its home games? Both of these teams have disappointed and both are banged up. But the Saints don’t have Reggie Bush and I think Phillip Rivers will play better this week. Then again, Drew Brees should play better as well, but I think the Chargers are the better team overall. I think the Chargers will win and it’s a field goal spread so I’ll just pick the winner to cover.
Kansas City (+13) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover.
Comment: Wow. What do you think the spread would be if the Chiefs were on the road playing the 2007 Patriots this week? Plus 35.5? The Chiefs have no QB and no LJ. The Jets aren’t very good but even they can probably blow out KC at home. I’ll take the Jets to win by a couple TD’s or more.
Atlanta (+9) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: I wish I could pick the Falcons in this one but I just can’t. When I looked at the schedule this season I thought this was the Falcons 2nd most unwinnable game behind a trip to San Diego, and at this point I’d say it’s probably their most unwinnable. The Eagles will have Brian Westbrook back and some of their receivers. Both teams are coming off a bye but the Eagles needed it much more. Jim Johnson is going to send all sorts of stuff at Matt Ryan and the O-line and it just doesn’t seem like a good matchup for the young Falcons. The Falcons have not fared well in Philly over the years and I think they’ll have a hard time keeping it close. I expect the Eagles to win by double digits.
Sunday’s Late Games
Cleveland (+7) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags win but Browns beat the spread.
Comment: Cleveland’s offense looked horrific again last week and they’re just 4-10 in their last 14 games on the road. However, they’ve beaten the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. Meanwhile, the Jags played their best game of the year two weeks ago and they’re coming off a bye, but they’re only 2-4 ATS this year so I’ll take the Jags to win by less than a touchdown.
Cincinnati (+9.5) @ Houston
Pick: Texans win but Bengals cover.
Comment: The Texans are usually a decent team at home and the Bengals have to play without Carson Palmer again. But the Texans are 1-5 against the spread this year and 0-2 ATS as favorites. Cincinnati has been competitive most of the time this year. I don’t think the Bengals get their first win this week but I don’t think Houston will win by double digits.
New York Giants (+3) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover.
Comment: I know the Giants are the road kings but the Steelers have won 9 of 10 at home in the regular season. Plus Pittsburgh gets Willie Parker back this week. The only major worry I have for the Steelers is about protection but I think they’ll be okay. I think the Steelers will win and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take the winner to cover.
Seattle (+5) @ San Francisco
Pick: 49ers cover.
Comment: Seattle is horrible, especially without Matt Hasselbeck. They’ve lost 8 of 11 on the road and earlier this year they lost to SF at home. The Niners will be playing hard for Mike Singletary. I see San Fran winning easily.
Monday Night’s Game
Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: I think the Colts are in trouble. They’re going to have a hard time running or passing against the Tennessee defense and the Titans should be able to have success running the ball against the Colts defense. I think the Titans will win by a touchdown at least.
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