Last Week: Vs. Spread (8-4-2); Straight Up (8-6)
Season: Vs. Spread (34-36-4); Straight Up (48-26)
Week 5 Review: Obviously I didn’t have much of a clue last week, as evidenced by my picking only 8 of the 14 winners correctly, but I’ll take 8-4-2 against the spread. It’s really just like flipping a coin though isn’t it? Once again I did not see the Dolphins coming. I didn’t pick the Falcons to win in Green Bay either. I also didn’t have Arizona winning but I still think the Bills would have won if Edwards hadn’t gotten hurt so I’m giving myself a pass on that one. I knew some of those games were going to be closer than expected.
Week 6 Preview: I don’t like this week for betting because so many of the games could easily go either way but it should be a pretty entertaining week in the NFL. Again I expect most of the games to be close so I’m picking a lot of favorites to win but not to cover. I’m glad that both the Lions and Rams are in action this week so I can get a couple of automatics, as long as the spread is under 30.
Sunday’s Early Games
Chicago (-1) @ Atlanta
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: I’m just not going to get my hopes up enough to expect that we’re going to beat the Bears. We never beat the Bears. Since the Super Bowl Shuffle Bears in 1985, the Falcons have lost 8 of 9 games against Chicago, including 3 of 4 at home. The Falcons have lost the last 3 meetings. The Falcons have a chance because the game is at home but they’ll have to play really well to get a win with a rookie QB against that defense.
Oakland (+9) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Raiders beat the spread.
Comment: The circus is back in town after a week off and Lane Kiffin is no longer part of the act in Oakland. There are so many ridiculous elements to this situation, and one of the ironic things is that ever since getting plastered on opening night, the Raiders actually played a lot better over the last 3 weeks than they had over the last 3 years. They won at Kansas City and had 4th quarter leads in Buffalo and against the Chargers. Losing both of those last two games sucked but at least the Raiders were in it and improving. Who knows what they’ll play like now. I like the Saints to get back to .500 with a win this Sunday if they just don’t beat themselves. But I don’t think they’ll win by 9 points because I think the Raiders will be competitive and I think the Saints will end up making a few mistakes to keep Oakland in the game because they always do.
Carolina (+1) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Panthers pull off the upset.
Comment: This is pretty tough to call. Normally I would go with the home team but Tampa Bay’s QB situation is iffy and I just don’t like their offense. Carolina has gotten it done most of the time so far this year, going 4-1 against mostly good competition. The Bucs have also been very competitive and I think this game will go down to the wire. But I’ll take the Panthers because I like Delhomme more than Griese or Garcia, and because Carolina is 8-2 against the Bucs in the last 5 years, and has won 5 straight in Tampa.
St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington
Pick: Redskins cover.
Comment: The Skins have won 4 straight since their loss to the Giants on opening night and they are 4-0 against the spread over that time. St. Louis is 0-4 and 0-4 against the spread. The Rams have yet to score more than 14 points in a game or hold the opposition under 31. They have lost each game by at least 17 points. There’s simply no logical reason to think the Rams will stay within two TD’s of Washington.
Cincinnati (+6) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets win but Bengals beat the spread.
Comment: The Bengals are 0-5 but I think they’re much better than both the Lions and Rams. At least they’ve been able to put up some points and compete these last few weeks. I think they’ll give the Jets a fight this week too but I have to take Favre and the Jets to win at home coming off a bye.
Detroit (+13.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover.
Comment: The Lions are 0-4 and they’ve lost each game by at least 13 points, allowing at least 31 points to the opposition in every game so far. The Vikings haven’t been all that impressive in getting off to a 2-3 start but they’re usually pretty good at home. The Vikings have won 11 of their last 12 games against the Lions and have beaten them 10 straight times at the Metrodome.
Miami (+3) @ Houston
Pick: Texans win but Dolphins beat the spread.
Comment: I’m still struggling to accept the Dolphins as a good team but in their last two games they have beaten the Patriots and the Chargers and done so convincingly. Houston has yet to win a game but they’ve played pretty well in their last two games, losing in OT to the Jags on the road and then losing a heartbreaker to the Colts last Sunday. The Texans aren’t that bad, they just need to learn how to win. I think this is one of the toughest games to pick in week 6. The Texans are due for a win and I think they’ll eke one out by a point or two.
Baltimore (+4.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Ravens beat the spread.
Comment: I’m actually a little surprised that this line is as big as it is. The Colts have already lost twice in their new building and they really haven’t played a great game yet. They’re 2-2 but they could easily be 0-4. The Ravens very nearly upset the Titans in week 5 and they’ve been in every game. I don’t think Baltimore’s defense will allow many points so I see the Ravens keeping it within a FG.
Sunday’s Late Games
Jacksonville (+3.5) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos win but Jags beat the spread.
Comment: I think the Broncos are overrated but the Jags have been disappointing and it’s always tough to win at Mile High. I think Jax will keep it close again, however, and it’ll probably go down to the wire. This should be a competitive game but I’ll give Denver the edge because they’re the home team.
Dallas (-5) @ Arizona
Pick: Cowboys cover.
Comment: This is a tricky one. We don’t really know what Arizona is yet. Are they a good team or just better than usual? When playing at home are they actually close to being a great team? They’ve outscored opponents 72-27 in two games at home so far. The Cowboys should win this game but I don’t know if they’ll be able to win comfortably. This game could be very close and the Cowboys might still win by 6 points and end up covering. I think the Cardinals will be competitive but 5 points is just not that big of a spread so I’ve got to take Dallas.
Philadelphia (-4.5) @ San Francisco
Pick: Eagles cover.
Comment: The Eagles’ schedule gets a little kinder now for the next few weeks and they really need to take advantage of it. 4.5 isn’t a big spread and the Eagles should be able to beat the Niners by at least a touchdown. The Niners are 2-3 but in each of their 3 defeats they have lost by at least 9 points.
Green Bay (+1) Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover.
Comment: This is another really tough game to call because there’s a lot of uncertainty. I can’t determine yet whether these teams are close to the teams they were last year or completely different entities. I don’t know if the Seahawks are just banged up and shorthanded or if they just aren’t good anymore. I don’t know if Green Bay is just struggling with injuries or if they really are as far from the NFC Championship Game as it seems. Because of the tremendous home field advantage at Qwest Field I’m going to go with Seattle. .
Sunday Night’s Game
New England (+6) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover.
Comment: I would be looking forward to this game if Brady was playing. I think the Pats are going to struggle to be more than mediocre offensively and the Chargers should be able to come out and just outscore them. If the Chargers are fired up for this game and they come out playing well they might take the opportunity to rub it in NE’s face. I think they’ll make sure and win by at least a TD. On the other hand, I could see the Pat’s rising up for this game and winning it on heart and passion alone, but I’m not going to bet on it.
Monday Night’s Game
New York Giants (-9) @ Cleveland
Pick: Giants win but Browns beat the spread.
Comment: The Browns have already lost more games at home this season than they did all of last year. They could really use a win in this game to get to 2-3 and gain a huge boost of confidence. Part of me thinks that the Giants will come out and handle the Browns just the like the Cowboys did and win by 17 or 20 points. But it’s on Monday Night Football and it’s in Cleveland so I think the Browns will do their very best not to get humiliated.
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