Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-7); Straight Up (8-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (26-32-2); Straight Up (40-20)
Week 4 Review: It was another tough go of things for me last week. I failed to go .500 against the spread yet again. Actually last week I was only correct about 60% of the time just picking winners. My worst game last week was probably picking Denver to cover the 9.5 point spread against KC (they lost by 14) or maybe picking the Cardinals to win at the Meadowlands (they lost by 21).
Week 5 Preview: Oh no! What will I do this week without the Rams to rely on for a guaranteed win? Whoever the Lams were playing was a shoe-in to cover but they’re off this week, while perplexing teams Indianapolis, New England, and Miami are back in play. Well, at least the Lions are back to keep the seat warm for St. Louis. I’ve got no strategy this week. Just hoping for some luck.
Sunday’s Early Games
Tennessee (-3) @ Baltimore
Pick: Titans cover.
Comment: Boy the Ravens have been way better than I expected them to be so far! I know they’ve only played 3 games but they’ve won 2 and lost in OT at Pittsburgh in the other game. The Titans, however, have been the most impressive team in the NFL this year through 4 weeks. They’re 4-0 and they’ve won by an average of 14 points a game, with an average score of 25.5-11.5. I know this one is at Baltimore where the Ravens are very tough but I’m simply not going to bet against the Titans again this year until they fail to cover. This was once a rivalry game and I’m sure there are still some feelings of ill will on both sides but Tennessee is really a completely different team from the one that battled with the Ravens back in the early part of the decade.
Seattle (+7) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover.
Comment: Well the last time we saw the G-Men they were having to escape in OT against the Bengals at home. Controversy found its way into the Giant camp again during their off week as Plaxico Burress was suspended for insubordination and became the subject of domestic abuse rumors. Seattle blew out the Rams at home after 2 disappointing losses to start the season and they’re a little bit healthier coming out of the bye week. Still, including the postseason the Seahawks have lost 8 of their last 11 road games and I’ve lost faith in them.
Washington (+6) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles win but Redskins beat the spread.
Comment: A number of teams have looked very different from week to week this year (the Pats, the Jets, the Dolphins, the Cardinals, the Cowboys, the Raiders, and the Chiefs just to name a few) but the team that has changed their image in the eyes of the NFL world more than any other from week 1 until now is the Washington Redskins. After looking like a rudderless ship in a loss at the Giants on opening night, the Skins have beaten the Saints and Cardinals at home and gone into Dallas and upset the Cowboys. This week they have another tough assignment as they go on the road to play the Eagles. Philly has played well each week despite winning just 2 of their 4 games so far but they have been in some bruising games over the last 3 weeks and they are banged up a bit. I think Philly will be in another close, hard fought game this week but I think they’ll pull it out.
San Diego (-6.5) @ Miami
Pick: Chargers cover.
Comment: The Chargers continue to be the Detroit Pistons of the NFL, meaning they play down to competition, make things as hard as possible on themselves, and still leave you thinking that eventually they’ll get serious and reach their potential. The Dolphins come into this game fresh after a bye week and with a lot of confidence following their ambush of New England. I’m not convinced yet that the Dolphins are ready to compete on a weekly basis, especially against the best teams in the League. Maybe the Chargers will be as good as they should be this week.
Chicago (-3.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Bears cover.
Comment: To me this is the most curious spread of the week. Why are the Bears—who have played the Colts, the Bucs, the Eagles, and the Panthers, and come away 2-2 with 2 losses by 3 points, 1 of those in overtime—just 3.5 point favorites over the Lions—who have played Atlanta, Green Bay, and San Francisco and lost all 3 games by an average of 18 points—regardless of where the game is played? I can’t figure this one out. The Lions won both games against the Bears last season but before that they had lost 4 straight against Chicago. More importantly, it’s been fairly obvious so far this year that the Lions are not close to as good as they were last year and the Bears are much better than they were last year. I’m not expecting Detroit to be any better this week than they have been in any game this season even if Matt Millen is finally gone—err, released from prison, sorry.
Atlanta (+7) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover.
Comment: You don’t need to worry about setting your TIVO to record the Aaron Rodgers “Sports Century” just yet. After losses to 2 tough teams, Rodgers is a little banged up and the Packers don’t appear to have any kind of a running game with which to take the heat off of him. However, the Pack gets the Falcons at home this week so they should be able to come away with a fairly easy win. At this point it may be a little too much to ask for the Falcons to keep it close on the road against good competition.
Indianapolis (-3) @ Houston
Pick: Colts cover.
Comment: The Texans have had perhaps the toughest schedule so far this season. They faced the Steelers (at full strength) on the road in week 1; their game was cancelled the next week but it was far from a bye week as they had to deal with a natural disaster; then they played the Titans on the road in week 3; and last week they had to go to Jacksonville and lost in OT to the Jags. 3 road games against playoff teams and a hurricane. That’s tough. They looked like a decent team for the first time last week and now they finally get to play a home game. Unfortunately, they’re hosting the Colts, who are coming off of a bye. The Texans are 1-11 against the Colts in their 6 year existence but they’ve beaten the spread in 4 of the last 5 games against Indy at home. It’s hard to know what to make of the Colts right now but I still think they are one of the better teams in the NFL and 3 points isn’t a lot.
Kansas City (+9.5) @ Carolina
Pick: Panthers cover.
Comment: The Chiefs shocked me last week with their 33-19 win over the Broncos at home. But I’m not quite ready to change my opinion of them as one of the worst teams in the NFL. Let’s see them play two good games in a row. Let’s see them do it on the road against a solid team. I like the Panthers to win this one pretty easily.
Sunday’s Late Games
Tampa Bay (+3) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos cover.
Comment: The Broncos were exposed last week in KC, losing their first game of the year and falling by 14 points in a game they were favored to win by 9.5. I never thought the Broncos were that good to begin with. Like the Steelers, the Broncos are often going to be overrated because we are used to them being a great team. I think they are good but I don’t think they are that much better than they have been the last 2 years. In 2006 they started 7-2 and then lost 5 of their final 7 to finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs. Last year they started out 2-0 and ended up 7-9. I think they have a chance to get back to the playoffs this year but they need to play better defense. Tampa has lost 14 of their last 19 road games and it isn’t easy to win at Mile High so I’ll take the Broncos but I’m not real confident about this one.
Buffalo (+1) @ Arizona
Pick: Bills pull off the upset.
Comment: I picked the Cardinals to win last week when they were a 1 point underdog and they lost by 21. I know they are successful much more frequently at home than on the road but I’ve lost confidence in them. Conversely, I’m more confident in the Bills than just about any team in the NFL right now. I’m not betting against them again this year until they lose.
New England (-3) @ San Francisco
Pick: Patriots cover.
Comment: I really don’t know what to expect from the Patriots this week. That blowout loss at home to the Dolphins in week 3 shocked me about as much as any NFL game ever has. They’re coming off a bye and I think they’ll go into this game wanting to prove some things to the rest of the League and to themselves. They shouldn’t be over confident by any means. The Niners have shown signs of coming back to relevance this season but they aren’t there yet. They are 9-10 in their last 19 home games so they’ve been closer to a mediocre team in San Fran than on the road. I’m going to take the Pats because it’s not a big spread and I have to think that they’ll be looking to rebound and get the bad taste of that embarrassing loss to Miami out of their mouths.
Cincinnati (+17) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Bengals beat the spread.
Comment: I don’t quite get why this spread is so high. I know that it’s about matchups and stuff like that, but I mean, what would the spread be if the Rams were playing at Dallas this week? 25? 35? The Bengals suck but their biggest loss has been a 17 point defeat to the Titans. In their other 3 games they’ve lost by 8 or less, including an overtime loss at Giants Stadium in week 3. You know Carson Palmer isn't missing this game because of an "inflammed elbow." They've got to have Palmer to have a chance in this game and at 0-4 it's pretty much a must win game. The Cowboys are coming off a home loss to the Skins and in their other home game this year they needed a pair of inexplicable fumbles by the Eagles to avoid a loss. I’m sure Dallas will win and win easily but I have to take 17 points.
Sunday Night’s Game
Pittsburgh (+4) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags win but Steelers beat the spread.
Comment: The Steelers are a banged up, beaten up, crippled up bunch. And now they get to play yet another ultra physical game on the road in primetime. They’ve got injuries at key spots on both sides of the ball. The Jags have been pretty shaky so far this year but they’ve pulled out wins in extremely tight games in each of the last two weeks and I guess I’m going to call for them to do it again this week. But I’m not that confident in Jacksonville. They’ve played 4 close games this year and won 2 of them but they are a lot closer to being 0-4 than 4-0.
Monday Night’s Game
Minnesota (+3) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover.
Comment: Do you know that the Vikings are now 17-41 on the road since the start of the 2001 season? They’re 0-2 on the road this year while the Saints are 2-0 at home. After scoring 34 points in 2 games with Tavaris Jackson at QB, the Vikings have scored just 37 points in 2 games with Gus Frerotte under center. I definitely think they’ll be in this game but I think the Saints will end up winning it.
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