The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 9 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (7-6); Straight Up: (9-4)

Season: Vs. Spread (48-66-3); Straight Up: (65-52)

Week 8 Review: Whatever. I guess at this point that’s about as good as I can do.

Week 9 Preview: I’m still due for a big week. However, the spreads are just too tough this week. I have to hedge on a few of these.

Sunday’s Early Games

New York Jets (-4) @ Detroit
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: So what happened to the Jets last week? Getting shutout at home is not very good. They were coming off of a bye. What did they do during the off-week? I have to expect them to rebound this week in Detroit, but this is a team with hopes of winning the Super Bowl. They’ve had 2 absolutely miserable offensive games in 7 tries this season, both coming at home. If they turn in an offensive performance like that in the playoffs they could be done no matter how great the defense is. The Ravens went through a retched stretch offensively in 2000 and they ended up marching through the postseason fairly convincingly. But I’m not sure this defense is anywhere near as good as that one.

The Jets had won 5straight and 5 in a row against the spread prior to last week’s 9-0 defeat at home against the Packers. New York is 3-0 on the road (3-0 ATS). The Lions are no longer a bunch of pushovers. They are just 2-5, but they should be 3-4, and they are 6-1 ATS. They are 2-1at home, with the only loss coming by 3 points to the Eagles in week 2. They’ve won 2 of their last 3. Matt Stafford returned last week and threw 4 TD’s against Washington, but he’ll obviously be going up against a much better defense this Sunday.

Tampa Bay (+9) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons win but Bucs beat the spread
Comment: This did not look like a big game in August but it certainly is now. It’s a scary game for Falcons fans like me. These games are usually hard fought and close. Both teams come into the game 5-2 and 4-3 ATS. The Falcons are 3-0 at home, but the Bucs are 3-0 on the road. Atlanta has outscored opponents by 5.1 points a game this season and they are coming off of a bye. Tampa has actually won 5 straight on the road going back to last season, but the Bucs have a -3.9 scoring differential this season. The Falcons have won 3 straight in this series and 3 of the last 4 at the Dome, but the last 2 games in Atlanta have been heart stoppers. The Falcons are a bit banged up on defense. Hopefully the fans will be up for this game and will be able to give the home team a lift.

Miami (+5.5) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: The Dolphins just keep hanging around. They are 4-3 (5-2 ATS), 4-0 on the road, and still in the playoff picture despite a -2.3 average scoring margin this season. The Ravens are off of a bye and 3-0 at home this season. They are 5-2 overall (3-3-1 ATS). These two did not face each other last year, but in 2008 they played twice (once in the regular season and once in the playoffs), with the Ravens winning both games. Baltimore’s defense was the key factor in each of those meetings (big surprise).

New England (-5) @ Cleveland
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: The Pats are 6-1 (4-2-1 ATS) and have won 5 straight. The Browns are coming off of a bye, and in their last game they won on the road at New Orleans. Cleveland is 2-5 (3-4 ATS) and 1-2 at home.

Arizona (+9) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: Oh man, am I sick of the Vikings! This is a must win for them. They are 2-5 (2-5 ATS) and 2-1 at home. The Vikes have only been outscored by an average of 2.2 points per game this year. Arizona is 3-4 (2-5 ATS) and 1-3 on the road. The Cards have a -9.3 average scoring margin this season. Even though Brett Favre is on his last leg, Randy Moss has been waived, Percy Harvin is unlikely to play, Sidney Rice is still a few away weeks from returning, and Brad Childress is a complete buffoon, I still think the Vikings ought to win this game easily.

Chicago (-2.5) vs. Buffalo (Toronto)
Pick: Bills pull off the upset
Comment: Oh, the poor Bills! They are 0-7, they’ve lost 2 straight overtime heartbreakers on the road against good teams, and now they have to go to Toronto and give up a home game. This is the 3rd year in a row that the Bills have played 1 of 8 home games in Toronto. The first 2 have not gone well. In 2008 they were 1-point favorites against the Dolphins but they wound up losing 16-3. Last year they were 3-point dogs against the Jets and they fell 19-13. The Bears are 4-3 (3-4 ATS) and coming off of a bye.

San Diego (-3) @ Houston
Pick: Chargers win but Texans beat the spread
Comment: The Chargers are now 3-5 (3-5 ATS) and they have a +4.4 average scoring margin, but they are 0-4 on the road this year. Houston is now 4-3 (3-4 ATS) with a -3.8 average scoring margin, and they have already lost twice at home this season. The Texans are playing on a short week and they are 0-3 all-time vs. San Diego. The Texans have not lost back to back games yet this season. The Chargers haven’t won back to back yet games this season.

New Orleans (-6.5) @ Carolina
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The Saints are 5-3 (3-5 ATS) and coming off of their big win over the Steelers. They are 2-1 on the road so far. The Panthers are just 1-6 (2-5 ATS) and 1-3 at home. They’ve been outscored by 9.3 points per game in 2010. The Saints will most likely be without Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas yet again this Sunday, as their injuries haven’t been quick to heal and the bye week is just ahead. These two teams played in New Orleans in week 4, with the Saints eking out a 16-14 win.

Sunday’s Late Games

New York Giants (-5.5) @ Seattle
Pick: Giants win but Seahawks beat the spread
Comment: The G-Men have won 4 straight (3-1 ATS during that stretch) and they are coming off of a bye. They’re 2-1 on the road so far this season. The Seahawks have been outscored by their opponents overall this season, but they are 4-3 and 3-0 at home.

Indianapolis (+3) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles win but Colts beat the spread
Comment: This might be the most interesting game of the week. The Colts are 5-2 (4-2-1 ATS), but just 2-2 on the road, and they are banged up and will be playing on a short week. The Eagles are coming off of a bye, and they should have Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson ready to go. Philly is only 1-2 at home so far. These two teams don’t play very often. This will be just the 7th meeting since the end of the 80’s. The Eagles haven’t beaten Indy since December of 1993.

Kansas City (+3) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: It’s great to see this rivalry matter again. Lately these games have been close and low scoring. The Chiefs are 5-2 (5-2 ATS) but just 1-2 on the road. This is a huge game for Oakland. The Raiders are 4-4 (5-3 ATS) and 3-1 at home. They’ve won 4 straight ATS.

Sunday Night’s Game

Dallas (+9) @ Green Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: Too bad the “flex” portion of Sunday Night Football’s schedule is not here yet. The Cowboys are probably fixin’ to call it a year. They are 1-6 (1-6 ATS) and have lost 4 straight (0-4 ATS during that run). The Packers are 5-3 (4-4 ATS) and 3-1 at home.

Monday Night’s Game

Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: The Bengals have disappointed but this is always an enjoyable matchup, especially in the Jungle. The Steelers are 5-2 (4-3 ATS) and 3-1 on the road, but they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. The Bungles are 2-5 (2-5 ATS) overall, 1-2 at home, and they’ve now lost 4 in a row (0-4 ATS during that span). Including the playoffs, the Steelers had won 8 straight in Cinci before blowing a lead and falling at Paul Brown Stadium in week 3 last year. Cincinnati swept the season series over the Steelers last year for the first time since 1998.