The Falcons Blog: Week 12 Preview

Getting our Hopes Up

It’s good to be a Falcons fan these days. Enthusiasm is picking up around the city and state. People are starting to talk about the team in ways that they never have before. Sure, there have been good times in the past, but we’ve rarely had teams that were respected, that were stable, that people really trusted.

On local sports talk radio the difference in how the team is talked about these days is remarkable. There is so much confidence expressed. The sense that the team is being underappreciated and disrespected nationally has been a constant theme over the past month or so. It’s amazing to me.

It’s not that it bothers me. On the contrary, I’m thrilled that the franchise has reached this point. It’s just hard for me to follow suit. Some of this might just be my nature. But I also think it’s because I’m truly a devoted fan, and I have been since I started following sports as a child. The guys on the radio are sports fans, and they’ve naturally come to be fans of the Falcons over the years, but in most cases it’s a little different for them. I’ve experienced the history of this franchise as a fan. And if you’re a Falcons fan, you’re conditioned differently than a Steelers fan or a Giants fan.

The emotions people are expressing these days are all positive, but the most common and strongly expressed emotion is of confidence. People are confident, looking ahead at the schedule and liking the looks of the future. People are confidently talking about playoff seeding, getting the home field advantage, and making a run at winning the whole thing. People are anxiously looking forward to the next couple of months and feeling confident that this will be the year.

You know the strongest emotion I’m feeling in regards to the rest of the season?

Fear.

It’s hard to explain, other than to say that I’m excited about the next couple of months, but an equally powerful feeling of apprehension accompanies the excitement. It’s not like Christmas Eve. Nobody actually gets coal in their stocking. It’s more like the day that grades are due. I think I did well. I hope the news will be good. But I’m a little scared because there have been bad outcomes in the past.

Scars

We’ve all dealt with sleep deprivation at one time or another in our lives. Maybe you stayed up all night cramming for final exams (This was the only way I ever learned how to study. I don’t think I ever “woke up” the morning of a final exam in my entire college career, which was rather lengthy to be right frank with you). Maybe you went through pledge ship in a fraternity (I joined two, got kicked out of both) and were made to stay awake for long periods of time. Maybe you actually have insomnia and deal with this on a regular basis. Whatever the case, we all know what it’s like when you’ve been awake for a long time and your senses begin to have a hard time functioning.

I’ve had trouble sleeping all my life, and as mentioned before, the only way I ever figured out how to get decent grades in college was by having epic study sessions, so I’ve experienced these things a lot. For me, the thing that sleep deprivation always hampered the most was my night vision. By night vision, I mean the ability to see when the lighting is dim. After my last test, I’d go home and relax for a while, and then eventually the tiredness would come, and I’d shut all the lights off. I still had to find my way into my room and into bed—something that would usually take about 3 seconds and could be done without any thought—and this would be the moment when I’d realize how much the lack of sleep was effecting me.

I would be completely blind. My sense of balance was also affected, and so I would slowly creep in the direction I thought was correct, tottering as I went, with a hand out in front for protection and my face grimacing in anticipation of banging into a wall, a table, a cat, a door, or some other obstacle that might be a foot in front of my face but impossible to see. I knew from experience that there were likely to be some missteps and surprises along the way. Frail and timid, it might take 5 minutes before I managed to reach the bed and begin the journey back to normalcy.

This is basically how I feel during the NFL season. Things are going so well, and the excitement is building every day, but I can’t help but keep a hand out for protection. The things to come are going to come. I hope it’s going to be special. But I’m a bit timid about the whole thing to be honest. While the guys on the radio are looking at the schedule and checking off wins, I’m waiting, and hoping, and worrying, and flinching from time to time along the way.

Part of it is just my nature. Part of it is just being a Falcons fan. We’ve got scars, us Falcons fans. We’re loving the way things are now. We’re excited. But we’ve been conditioned to be apprehensive. It will take time and it will take positive experiences to change this. These guys have put together the best 2 and a half year stretch in team history, but that’s only a short time compared to all of the history that came before Mike Smith and Matt Ryan. And of course, most of that prehistory wasn’t good.

Week 12 Preview

The Falcons have had a number of tough games already this season (at Pittsburgh, at New Orleans, at Philly, against the Ravens on a short week, etc.), but they will face arguably their toughest test this week. It seems odd to say that the toughest test would come at home, where the Falcons have been hard to beat over the last few years. However, the Green Bay Packers are one of the better teams in the NFL, and they are heading to town on a serious roll.

The Packers were among the teams expected to contend for a championship this season. But earlier in the year they were hit with a ton of injuries and they went through a rough spell, losing 3 of 4 games at one point, with all the losses coming by just 3 points, 2 of them in overtime. At that point they were sitting at 3-3, but they have since won 4 straight games. Over their last 3 games they have been simply dominant.

In their last 3 games (at the Jets, against the Cowboys, and at the Vikings), the Packers outscored their opponents by a combined score of 85-10. The Packers are 7-3 on the season, and they have outscored their opponents by 106 points, the best scoring differential in the NFL by a wide margin. Pittsburgh has the next best scoring differential at +70. They are 3-2 on the road, having won their last 2 away games.

Green Bay Offense

Everyone knows that the Falcons are a bit vulnerable against the pass. On Sunday the Falcons will face one of the better QB’s in the NFL (Aaron Rodgers) and a number of solid pass catchers. Green Bay is 13th in total offense and 8th in scoring offense at 25.2 points per game. Rodgers ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in completion percentage, touchdowns, and QB rating. The Packers are 11th in passing yards per game. The go-to guy for Rodgers is Greg Jennings, who averages over 70 yards receiving per game and has caught 9 TD passes.

While Green Bay’s offensive numbers don’t blow you away, they just don’t do many things to hurt themselves. They have the 3rd fewest offensive penalty yards in the league, a +8 turnover margin (5th best), and they are 10th in 3rd down conversion percentage. The Falcons have had a lot of trouble getting off the field on 3rd down this season and they have relied on interceptions, but Rodgers doesn’t turn it over much. Green Bay is 13th in time of possession.

The Falcons have solid numbers against the rush this season, but it’s hard to know how much of that is a result of teams preferring to attack the Falcons through the air. With that said, the Falcons are obviously stronger against the run than the pass. Brandon Jackson is currently Green Bay’s starting running back. He is a decent runner but only averages 4.0 yards per carry. The Falcons should be able to handle Green Bay on the ground. The Packers are just 19th in rushing yards and tied for 14th in yards per attempt.

Some of the problems the Falcons have had defending the pass are due to an inability to get pressure on the QB. They haven’t gotten a lot of sacks this season. John Abraham is Atlanta’s biggest weapon on defense, but The Predator is dealing with a groin injury and he missed last week’s game. Green Bay’s offensive line is healthy and has been playing very well over the last few weeks. With Abraham ailing, the Falcons could struggle to get pressure, and that will make it much harder to slow down the Green Bay passing game.

Green Bay Defense

Green Bay’s defense has been bent this season but rarely broken. The Packers are 12th in the NFL in total defense, but they are tied with the Bears for 1st in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 14.6 points per game. They are 11th in passing yards allowed but they’ve only surrendered 9 passing TD’s on the year (tied for 3rd). They Packers are a big play defense. They have 15 picks (tied for 2nd), 29 sacks (tied for 4th), and have scored 4 defensive touchdowns. QB’s have had a hard time against the Green Bay defense, as they are 3rd in opponent’s completion percentage and 2nd in opponent’s QB rating.

The Packers have several stars on defense. Clay Matthews is the front runner for this year’s Defensive Player of the Year Award. Matthews leads the NFL with 11.5 sacks. He also has a forced fumble and has returned a pick for a TD. Green Bay’s defense includes one of the better pairs of cornerbacks in all of pro football. Charles Woodson is having a tremendous year. He has 2 picks, 1 returned for a TD, and 4 forced fumbles. Tramon Williams has picked off 4 passes, forced a fumble, and recovered a pair of fumbles.

Most of Atlanta’s opponents come into the game focused on stopping the ground game. In the past when Michael Turner was slowed down the Falcons were in trouble. This season it has not been a problem because of the improvements in the passing game. This week, however, it might not be a great idea to throw the ball 40 times.

Along with Matthews, the Packers can also get pressure from DE Cullen Jenkins (4 sacks) and tackle BJ Raji (2.5 sacks). The corners are smart, tough, and opportunistic. They have a 3rd excellent DB in safety Nick Collins, who has a pick and a fumble returned for a TD this season. The Green Bay linebackers are some of the best in the NFL and they can play pass defense. AJ Hawk leads the team with 71 tackles and also has 2 interceptions and a fumble recovery. Desmond Bishop has stepped up with Nick Barnett out. Bishop has a forced fumble and a pick-6 on the season.

If the Falcons are going to win this game Michael Turner may have to carry the offense. The Packers are not nearly as tough against the run as they are against the pass. They are 18th in rush defense and 26th in yards per attempt. On the other hand, they have allowed only 4 rushing TD’s all year. The Falcons will just have to grind it out on the ground, avoid turnovers, and control the clock.

One final note about Green Bay’s defense. They have been easily the best on 4th downs this season. Opponents are just 2 for 14 on 4th down against the Pack this year (14%).

Green Bay Special Teams

This is not really a strength for the Packers. They have just 1 touchback on kickoffs all season (worst in the league) and they are tied for 22nd in net punting. They are 26th in FG%, tied for 26th in kick return average, and tied for 23rd in punt return average. Green Bay has only given up 1 special teams TD this season, but the Falcons should have the edge in this area of the game.

A Big Game

The Falcons are 8-2, tied for the best record in the NFL, but they don’t have much room for error. Tampa and New Orleans are both just 1 game behind the Falcons in the NFC South. Following this game the Falcons will be on the road for 3 straight weeks, beginning with a rematch against the Bucs in Tampa. They should be able to get a win in Carolina but a trip to Seattle the next week will be tricky. They finish the season at home against the Panthers, but the week before that they will have a Monday night contest against the Saints at home. This is far from the toughest remaining schedule, but it’s not as easy as some are making it out to be. If the Falcons do win this Sunday it will be a historic victory, as they will clinch a 3rd consecutive winning season for the first time in franchise history.