The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 12 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 4-6)

Overall (Straight up: 40-16; Vs. Spread: 27-28-1; Moneyline Upsets: 2-1)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 78-32; Vs. Spread: 51-54-5)

Overall (Straight up: 419-137; Vs. Spread: 279-268-9; Moneyline Upsets: 14-22)

Week 11 Review: Not what I was hoping for but I’ll take it at this point. I just want to avoid the catastrophe.

Week 12 Preview: There isn’t much buzz about this week yet, but this is actually a solid week of games. A lot of these matchups are tough to pick. I’m a little bit nervous.


Saturday

Game 1: Wisconsin (-4.5) @ Michigan
Pick: Wisconsin covers
Comment: It’s hard to imagine, but Rich Rodriguez and the Wolverines still have a chance to make this arguably Michigan’s best season since 2003. Actually, I think you would have to say that this would certainly be their best season since ’03 if Michigan knocks off Wisconsin and Ohio State in the final two weeks to finish 9-3. They won 9 games in 2004 and 2007, and they went 11-2 in 2006, but they did not beat Ohio State in any of those seasons. Plus, they’ve already beaten Notre Dame this season, and they would have a chance for a 10-win season with a victory in their bowl game. So it’s not too late for Rich Rod to turn it all around. I don’t think Michigan wants to give up and admit that the Rodriguez era was a total failure. Maybe just beating Wisconsin would be enough for Rodriguez to keep his job. But if he doesn’t pull out one of these last two games I think he would have to be gone.

The Badgers are trying to finish tied for the Big Ten title. They are 9-1 (just 5-5 ATS) and they have won 5 straight since their only loss of the season. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. Michigan is 7-3, but they are just 3-7 ATS (0-6 ATS in their last 6 games). However, history is on UM’s side. The home team has won 6 in a row in this series, and the Badgers have lost 5 straight and 17 of 18 in Ann Arbor (only win in 1994). In their last trip to the Big House (2008), Wisconsin blew a 19-0 lead, losing 27-25 after a game-tying 2-point conversion was called back.

There’s no question that Wisconsin has been the better program in recent years. In the last three meetings between these two, the Badgers have outgained the Wolverines by an average of 159 yards, and last season in Madison the Badgers won 45-24. Also, remember that Michigan has already lost twice at home this season and went into overtime against Illinois in another home game. There is a fairly big injury situation to watch in this one. As of now, big John Clay is listed as doubtful for the Badgers.

Game 2: NC State (+2.5) @ North Carolina
Pick: NC State pulls off the upset
Comment: Apart from being a rivalry game, this one will also impact the ACC Atlantic Division race (yeah, I know, who cares). NC State will go to the ACC Championship Game if they win their last two games. The Wolfpack are 8-2 ATS, but they have alternated wins and losses over their last 6 games. NC State has won 3 straight in this series, including upsets of UNC in each of the last two seasons (with UNC ranked 25th both years).

Game 3: Virginia Tech (-3) @ Miami
Pick: Virginia Tech covers
Comment: This has been one of the better matchups over the last 15 to 20 years in terms of the game often being meaningful and usually being competitive. The Hokies have won 8 straight since starting the year off 0-2 (7-1 ATS over that stretch) and they will clinch the ACC Coastal Division with a win. VT is 3-0 on the road, while the Canes are 3-1 at home. The Hokies have had the edge in this series in recent years, winning 3 of the last 4 and 5 of the last 7, including 2 of the last 3 in Miami. The Hokies are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against Miami (that would seem to speak to the tendency for Miami to be overrated by bettors wouldn’t it?). The Canes have been held to 16 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games against VT. Stephen Morris will be the starting quarterback for the banged up Hurricanes on Saturday.

Game 4: Ohio State (-3) @ Iowa
Pick: Ohio State covers
Comment: Iowa managed to take some of the sizzle out of this one by losing to Northwestern last week. Still, there is plenty at stake. Ohio State may be an extreme long shot to reach the National Championship Game, but they are none the less going for at least a share of yet another Big Ten Title. The Buckeyes are 8-2 ATS this season. They are 11-1 against the Hawkeyes since 1992, but last year’s game went to overtime. Over the last 3 years, the Buckeyes have outrushed Iowa 252-48.

Game 5: Stanford (-7) @ California
Pick: Stanford covers
Comment: The Big Game will always be known for the “Band on the Field.” To be honest, that’s basically all I know about it, despite the fact that this will be the 104th meeting between these two rivals. Stanford holds a 50-43-10 edge in the series, but California has won 7 of the last 8 (Stanford’s only win over that time came in 2007). Last year the Bears were underdogs for the first time since 2001, but they still managed to win 34-28. Both teams are coming off of hard fought games, with Stanford coming out on the winning end (17-13 over ASU) and Cal coming out on the losing end (15-13 to Oregon).

Game 6: Arkansas (-3) @ Mississippi State
Pick: Arkansas covers
Comment: This could become a really good rivalry in years to come. Arkansas has won 13 of the last 15 in this series, but they lost the last time they visited Starkville in 2008. Mississippi State had their 6 game win streak snapped last week by Bama. Arkansas is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Hogs have continued to roll without Greg Childs.

Game 7: Missouri (-11) @ Iowa State
Pick: Missouri covers
Comment: This isn’t the most important game of the week but it’s an interesting one in my opinion. The Cyclones lost big to Colorado last week and lost star QB Robert Arnaud. At 5-6 (5-6 ATS), they need a win to get bowl eligible for a second straight year, and they will turn to the inexperienced Jerome Tiller to try and fill Arnaud’s shoes. Missouri is still alive for the Big XII North, though they do need some help. The Tigers are 5-5 ATS this season and they are 0-3 ATS over their last 3 games. ISU is 4-2 ATS at home this season. Missouri has won 6 of the last 7 in this series, including 3 straight by at least 10 points. Last season Mizzu outgained Iowa State by 203 yards.

Game 8: Oklahoma (-7.5) @ Baylor
Pick: Baylor beats the spread
Comment: This is a big game in the Big XII South. Oklahoma is just 5-5 ATS this season, while Baylor is just 5-6 ATS. The Bears are 2-3 ATS at home, while the Sooners have lost their last 2 road games straight up, and are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 on the road. Baylor will be fighting the Sooners and history on Saturday. Oklahoma is 19-0 all-time vs. Baylor. Under Bob Stoops, the Sooners have gone 11-0 against Baylor with the average score being 42-12. This will be the season finale for Baylor, and the Bears have lost 15 of their last 17 season finales, losing 13 of those by at least 8 points. Oklahoma is the only team that Baylor has played at least 5 times and has never beaten.

Game 9: Nebraska (-3) @ Texas A&M
Pick: Nebraska covers
Comment: This game has both Big XII South and Big XII North implications. The Aggies are red hot, having won 4 straight (4-0 ATS during that stretch). Nebraska is just 4-5-1 ATS this season. The Cornhuskers are 10-3 all-time vs. A&M and they have won their last 2 games at College Station, but the Aggies won the last meeting between these two in 2007 by a score of 36-14. The Aggies are just 2-8 in their last 10 home finales, losing by an average of 14 points.

Game 10: USC (-3.5) @ Oregon State
Pick: USC covers
Comment: The poor Beavers are in a bit of a freefall. In their last two games they have lost at UCLA and lost at home to Wazu by 17 points. Last week’s 31-14 loss to Washington State had to be the worst of Mike Riley’s career. Beating USC wouldn’t make up for last week’s performance but it would certainly help things. The Trojans have lost the last two in Corvallis (just the 2nd and 3rd losses USC has suffered at the hands of the Beavers since 1968). USC is now 4-1 ATS on the road this season.

Other Games

Tuesday

Ohio (+7.5) @ Temple (Temple covers)

Wednesday

Miami (Ohio) (-10.5) @ Akron (Miami (OH) covers)

Bowling Green (+10) @ Toledo (Bowling Green beats the spread)

Thursday

UCLA (+2.5) @ Washington (UCLA beats the spread)

Air Force (-18.5) @ UNLV (UNLV beats the spread)

Friday

Fresno State (+30.5) @ Boise State (Fresno State beats the spread)

Saturday

Kent State (+3.5) @ Western Michigan (Kent State beats the spread)

Pittsburgh (-3) @ South Florida (South Florida pulls off the upset)

Penn State (-10) @ Indiana (Penn State covers)

West Virginia (-5) @ Louisville (Louisville beats the spread)

Virginia (+7) @ Boston College (BC covers)

Purdue (+20) @ Michigan State (Michigan State covers)

Oklahoma State (-24.5) @ Kansas (Oklahoma State covers)

Troy (+23) @ South Carolina (South Carolina covers)

East Carolina (-9.5) @ Rice (East Carolina covers)

Northern Illinois (-14.5) @ Ball State (NIU covers)

Duke (+12) @ Georgia Tech (Duke beats the spread)

Clemson (-13.5) @ Wake Forest (Clemson covers)

Eastern Michigan (+7) @ Buffalo (EM beats the spread)

UTEP (+17.5) @ Tulsa (Tulsa covers)

Colorado State (+2) @ Wyoming (CSU pulls off the upset)

Kansas State (-2.5) @ Colorado (Kansas State covers)

Idaho (+2.5) @ Utah State (Utah State covers)

Marshall (+13.5) @ SMU (SMU covers)

North Texas (Pick) @ Louisiana-Monroe (ULM covers)

Mississippi (+16) @ LSU (LSU covers)

Central Florida (-17) @ Tulane (CF covers)

Arkansas State (+13.5) @ Navy (Arkansas State beats the spread)

Florida Atlantic (+21) @ Texas (Texas covers)

Illinois (-7.5) @ Northwestern (Illinois covers)

Memphis (+20) @ UAB (UAB covers)

New Mexico State (+37.5) @ Nevada (NMS beats the spread)

Middle Tennessee State (-5) @ Western Kentucky (Western Kentucky beats the spread)

New Mexico (+28) @ BYU (BYU covers)

Army (+8) @ Notre Dame (Army beats the spread)

Florida International (-10) @ Louisiana-Lafayette (ULL beats the spread)

Rutgers (+12.5) @ Cincinnati (Rutgers beats the spread)

Connecticut (+4) @ Syracuse (Cuse covers)

Tennessee (-9.5) @ Vanderbilt (Tennessee covers)

Florida State (-4) @ Maryland (Maryland beats the spread)

Houston (+4) @ Southern Mississippi (Southern Miss covers)

Utah (-3) @ San Diego State (San Diego State beats the spread)

San Jose State (+30) @ Hawaii (Hawaii covers)