Wednesday, November 24, 2010

The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 13 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 8-2; Vs. Spread: 6-3-1)

Overall (Straight up: 43-10; Vs. Spread: 24-28-1; Moneyline Upsets: 1-2)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 86-34; Vs. Spread: 57-57-6)

Overall (Straight up: 462-147; Vs. Spread: 303-296-10; Moneyline Upsets: 15-24)

Week 12 Review: A disappointing result overall. My total record vs. the spread is becoming more and more pedestrian. The one positive from last week was my record in the biggest 10 games. That got me back to .500 in the biggest 10 games for the year.

Week 13 Preview: This is a ridiculously huge week. There are a ton of big games. Plus, it’s rivalry week. Therefore, instead of the biggest 10 games, we will have the biggest 20 games.

Thursday

Game 1: Texas A&M (-3) @ Texas
Pick: Texas A&M covers
Comment: This will be the 117th meeting. I think this one carries the tag of “The Lone Star Showdown,” but I really don’t think that’s fitting. It’s more personal than that. It’s way deeper than that. No offense to anyone that likes that nickname, but “The Lone Star Showdown” sounds like something that one of Steve Sabol’s minions will come up with as a name for this year’s Super Bowl highlight video during the first 3 minutes of the brain storming session. This one doesn’t need any extra name, but since we like to name rivalry games, the nickname at least needs to express the passion and intensity of this one. How about this one: “Ill Will.” I like it.

Anyway, this is one of my favorite rivalries. Both teams have their special traditions that they do each year for this game. And this one is always played at the same time, and it’s always the final regular season game for both teams. This one is bigger than a lot of other rivalries because it isn’t only a rivalry between the two teams or the fans of the two football teams. This is a rivalry that means something to everyone associated with these programs.

For an example, my buddy Driver once explained to me how this game is different for his family. They’re from Texas, but they’ve lived in Atlanta for 30-plus years and they’re only casual fans 364 days out of the year. But the A&M game is different. Mrs. Driver has the toddler grandkid decked out completely in Texas Longhorns attire, and as soon as the ball is snapped she’s yelling “Get ‘em! Get ‘em!” at the TV. It doesn’t get all that much better.

That’s what it’s all about, people. I think these rivalries are what separates college football from our other games. I mean, I’m generally annoyed with all of the importance that is placed on attracting non-sports fans, because it’s always based around some gay special interest story. But when casual sports fans are attracted to an event because of the game itself, those are the greatest times. Those are the ones that mean the most.

In many of the great rivalries there is one team that is the traditional favorite and one that is the traditional underdog. The Longhorns are of course the traditional favorite in this one, as UT is the flagship school of the biggest state in the country. Texas holds a sizeable edge in the all-time series with a 75-36-5 record against the Aggies. By comparison, Texas is 59-40-5 against Oklahoma.

Texas has been the dominant team in this rivalry in recent times as well. They have won 8 of the last 10, all by double digits and by an average of 22 points per game. The 2 losses were by 5 points and by 8 points. Texas has won the last 2, but the Aggies won 2 in a row before that. The Horns have won 6 of the last 7 in Austin.

There is certainly a different feel to the matchup heading into the game this year. A&M comes into the game ranked higher than the Longhorns for the first time since 1998. The Aggies will be trying for their first 9-win season since 2006 (just the 2nd since 1998). If they win this one and their bowl game it will be their first 10-win season since 1998.

Texas had won at least 10 games in an incredible 9 straight years prior to this season, and had won at least 9 games in each of Mack Brown’s 12 seasons at UT. Obviously those streaks are over. The Horns actually need to win this game to finish 6-6 and avoid their first losing season since they went 4-7 in 1997 (the year before Brown arrived).

Texas is 16-1 since 1993 in their home finale (only loss to A&M in 2006). They are just 3-8 ATS this season. Last week they beat FAU to snap a 4 game losing streak (0-4 ATS during that stretch). They are just 2-4 at home this season (1-5 ATS). A&M has won 5 in a row (5-0 ATS) and they are 7-4 ATS this season.

Technically, Texas A&M is still alive for the Big XII South title. If they win on Thursday and Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State this weekend the teams will finish in a 3-way tie at 6-2 in the conference. However, the South’s representative in the Big XII Championship Game would then be determined by ranking in the BCS, in which case Oklahoma would almost certainly be the winner.

Friday

Game 2: West Virginia (+2.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh covers
Comment: The Backyard Brawl. An underrated rivalry. This will be the 103rd edition. Pittsburgh is the traditional favorite, and the Panthers hold a 61-38-3 edge all-time in the series. 3 of the last 4 in this series have been decided by 4 points or less. The game has been decided in the final minute in each of the last 2 years, and last year it was decided on the final play. Home field has not mattered much lately in this series.

While neither team is having a terrific season, this game will have an impact on the BCS, as the winner of the Big East will (regrettably) have an automatic bid. Pitt is 4-1 in conference, while the Mountaineers are 3-2. However, both teams lost to UConn who is 3-2, and each team has another Big East game to go after this one, so it won’t be decided this week unless Pitt wins and the Huskies lose at home to Cincinnati.

The Mountaineers come into this one having won their last 2 games and they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 (4-1 ATS) and they are 4-1 at home this season. However, Pitt’s stud defensive end Greg Romeus will not play, as he is out for the year due to injury.

Game 3: Auburn (+4.5) @ Alabama
Pick: Auburn pulls off the upset
Comment: This one is known as the Iron Bowl, even though it’s now played at each team’s home site like a regular conference game. But like the A&M-Texas rivalry, this one is bigger than any title you can place on it. This is the 75th edition of the Iron Bowl, and that may seem like a surprisingly low number for people my age. Ever since I have been aware of sports and college football this grudge match has been the gold standard for what a rivalry is.

Alabama is the traditional favorite, but they have only recently regained the upper hand following an extended period of dominance by the Tigers. The Tide has won the last 2, but prior to that Auburn had won 6 straight. That period of dominance by Auburn helped close the gap in the all-time series, but Alabama still holds a 40-33-1 edge. The last time here Auburn was crushed, 36-0, but the Tigers had won 3 straight at Bama prior to that.

Going into this season it looked like Bama would be the team with conference and national title hopes on the line for this game. Cameron Newton and Bama’s first 2 regular season losses since 2007 have changed that. Auburn has the SEC West wrapped up, but they are trying to go 12-0 in the regular season for the 2nd time in the last 7 years. With a win, the Tigers will finish the regular season undefeated for the 3rd time since 1993. Bama will by trying to win at least 10 games in 3 consecutive seasons for the first time since they did it 4 years straight from 1977-1980.

Auburn is 6-2 ATS in their last 8, and they are 3-0 on the road this season. Bama is 6-0 at home (5-1 ATS) and they have won 3 of their last 4 games (3-1 ATS). Last season Auburn very nearly spoiled Bama’s perfect season, holding the Tide to just 73 yards on the ground, and outgaining them overall. Bama will be playing this game on 8 days rest, and their last game was really more of a scrimmage against Georgia State. Auburn will play on 13 days rest.

Game 4: Arizona (+19.5) @ Oregon
Pick: Oregon covers
Comment: This isn’t a rivalry but it’s a big game, as the Ducks are trying for a national championship. Oregon will wrap up the Pac-10 title with a win. The Ducks are trying for their first 11-win season since 2001 and just their 2nd all-time. Arizona will be looking to win at least 8 games for a 3rd straight year. It would be the first time the Wildcats have done it since 1973-75. The Ducks have a 21-14 edge in the all-time series, but they have won 9 of the last 11 and 13 of the last 15. The Ducks have won the last 2, with both teams scoring over 40 in each of the last 2 meetings.

Both teams come into the game on 13 days of rest. Arizona needed the time off to try and get QB Nick Foles going, as they have lost 2 straight and they are 2-5 ATS in their last 7. Oregon needed the time off to regroup after their biggest test of the season, a 15-13 win at Cal. Oregon is 4-0-1 ATS at home this season. Arizona is just 5-5 ATS overall this season.

Game 5: Boise State (-14) @ Nevada
Pick: Boise State covers
Comment: I don’t know if you’d call this a rivalry game, but Nevada has given Boise State more trouble than any other WAC team in recent years. Trouble, however, is a relative term, as the Broncos have beaten the Wolfpack 10 straight times. Boise State leads the all-time series 24-12, but clearly the Broncos have had the upper hand lately. Boise State has won 4 straight in Reno.

Still, Nevada has been a peskier foe than most of the other WAC teams over the last few years. In 2007, the Pack came as close as any WAC team has to winning on the blue turf, taking the Broncos into OT-IV as a 26.5 point dog before falling 69-67. Nevada was a 6.5 point underdog at home the next season, and they gave the Broncos a scare, but eventually lost 41-34. Last season in Boise, the Broncos were favored by 13.5 but they let Nevada get back into the game late before winning it 44-33.

So what kind of fight can Nevada put up this season? Maybe we should look at the other two (relatively) good teams in the WAC and see how each team has fared against them this season. Nevada got tripped up by Hawaii, losing to the Warriors 27-21. The Broncos beat Hawaii 42-7. Nevada just barely got by Fresno State, winning 35-34. The Broncos beat Fresno State 51-0. The only thing to keep in mind is that Nevada played both of those teams on the road, while the Broncos hosted both teams. And this one will be in Reno.

Still, it will be a shocker if the Broncos don’t win this one. With a win they will clinch yet another WAC title. The Broncos are 8-2 ATS this season and they are 4-0 on the road (4-0 ATS). Nevada is just 5-6 ATS this season. However, the Wolfpack has won 4 straight and they are 6-0 at home. Nevada will be looking to win 10 games in a season for the first time. Certainly if they win this game it will be the biggest win in their program’s history, and it will take what is already probably the greatest season in their program’s history to another level.

Saturday

Game 6: Michigan (+17) @ Ohio State
Pick: Ohio State covers
Comment: The Game. Now that is a fitting title. This will be the 107th meeting. This one is in that upper echelon along with Texas-Texas A&M and Auburn-Alabama. It could be said that there really isn’t a true “traditional favorite” in this rivalry, as both programs have had great success, great coaches, great stars, and great traditions/fans. But if you had to choose one team to claim as the “traditional favorite” it would be Michigan.

The Wolverines still hold the all-time series lead (57-43-6), but Ohio State has owned them for some time now. The Buckeyes have won the last 6 (the longest streak for either team) by an average of 13 points per game, outgaining UM by an average of 122 yards per game over that stretch. They have won 8 of the last 9 over Michigan, including 4 straight at home. The last time here Ohio State hammered the Wolverines 42-7.

Michigan is just 3-8 ATS this season and they are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games. They are 3-1 on the road, but just 1-3 ATS on the road. The Buckeyes have won their last 4 and they are 7-0 at home (7-0 ATS). They are 8-2-1 ATS this season. Ohio State will be trying for at least a share of yet another conference title.

Game 7: Michigan State (-2) @ Penn State
Pick: Michigan State covers
Comment: This is the Battle for the Land Grant Trophy. It’s only been played 27 times, with PSU leading the all-time series 14-12-1. Recently, however, Penn State has dominated, winning 8 of the last 10. They have become the traditional favorite. The Spartans have lost 8 straight at Happy Valley by an average of 23 points per game. They haven’t won at Penn State since 1965.
Usually it is MSU that is trying to spoil things for Penn State in the final game. This season it’s the other way around. Michigan State will be trying for at least a share of the conference title and their first ever 11-win season. Penn State will be trying to win at least 8 games for a 6th straight year.

Penn State is 5-1 at home this season and they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Michigan State is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games. Last week the Spartans barley survived at home against a crippled Purdue team.

Game 8: Virginia (+23.5) @ Virginia Tech
Pick: Virginia Tech covers
Comment: There is some name for this one like the “Battle for the Commonwealth” or something like that. This isn’t on a level with some of the other instate rivalries. It’s not that there isn’t plenty of animosity between the two, but the programs don’t have the history. Virginia Tech leads the all-time series 49-37-5, but I don’t think there is really a traditional favorite in this rivalry.

Lately this rivalry has been dominated by the Hokies. They have won 6 straight (by an average of 19 points per game) and 10 of the last 11. They’ve outgained Virginia in 6 straight and 10 of 11 by an average of 168 yards a game. VT has won 5 in a row at home over UVA by an average of 13 points per game. The last win in Blacksburg for the Cavaliers was in 1998.

The Hokies have already wrapped up the ACC Coastal Division. They will be trying to notch their 7th straight 10-win season. Since a disappointing 0-2 start, the Hokies have won 9 in a row (8-1 ATS over that stretch). UVA has lost their last 3 games and they are 0-4 on the road this season.

Game 9: Indiana (+3) @ Purdue
Pick: Purdue covers
Comment: These two battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. There are a lot of “trophy games” in the Big Ten. This one matters a lot to the parties involved, but it rarely matters much to anybody else. The Boilermakers are the traditional favorite, and they hold a 70-36-6 lead in the series all-time. They have dominated recently, winning 11 of the last 13, including 6 straight at home. This season both teams are struggling. They both come into this game having lost their last 5.

Game 10: Kentucky (+3) @ Tennessee
Pick: Kentucky pulls off the upset
Comment: The Kentucky program has taken some major strides towards credibility and respectability in recent years, while the Tennessee program has fallen off of a cliff. But this is one remaining wall that the Wildcats have yet to break down. The Vols have been reluctant to release their hold over the Cats. This is like Great Britain refusing to give up the Falklands in ’82. UT may be down, their great run of power long over with, but they are still masters over their dirt eating neighbors from the north. The Vols have won 25 straight over UK; the longest such streak in the country. Tennessee has won 12 straight over Kentucky at home. They are obviously the traditional favorites, and they hold a 73-23-9 lead in the series all-time.

Kentucky has come tantalizingly close to snapping the streak in recent years. In 2001 they fell 38-35. In 2004 they lost 37-31. In 2006 they came up short in a 17-12 game. In 2007 they should have won. It ended up going 4 OT’s, and they wound up losing 52-50. Last year they lost in OT 30-24. This may be the year they get it done, but it will be harder to pull off at Neyland.

The interesting thing about Kentucky is that there was a time when they were not simply a basketball school. This week they will be shooting for a 5th straight winning season, a feat they haven’t accomplished since they put together 11 consecutive winning seasons from 1946-1956. The Vols will be trying to get bowl eligible at 6-6.

The Cats are coming off of a bye. UT played Vandy last week. Kentucky is just 1-3 ATS on the road this season. The Vols have won their last 3 games and they are 4-0 ATS in their last 4. They are just 2-4 ATS in Knoxville this year.

Game 11: Kansas (+24) vs. Missouri (Kansas City)
Pick: Missouri wins but Kansas beats the spread
Comment: The 119th edition of the Border War. A very heated rivalry, it has had more national importance in recent years. One of the reasons that this one burns so hot is that it’s so competitive. Mizzu holds the edge all-time in the series, at least until this weekend. The Tigers have a 55-54-9 advantage all-time. That’s pretty neat. Both programs have witnessed a resurgence in recent years, but the Tigers have won 3 of the last 4. This one has been as close as always the last 2 years, with Kansas winning 40-37 in 2008, and Mizzu winning 41-39 last season.

This season Kansas has gone back into rebuilding mode, while the Tigers have been a surprise contender. Missouri needs a win and a Nebraska loss to Colorado in order to win the Big XII North and get to the conference title game. A win for the Tigers would also give them 10 wins for the 3rd time in 4 years. Kansas is 0-4 on the road this season, while the Tigers are 5-0 at home.

Game 12: BYU (+9) @ Utah
Pick: Utah wins but BYU beats the spread
Comment: The Holy War. And they mean it. In all other matters I am strongly in favor of sending all of the Mormons to live on a space station in another galaxy, but this game is always entertaining. 11 of the last 13 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less. BYU was a more high profile program for many years, but the Utes have been the traditional favorites in this rivalry. Utah owns a 50-31-4 edge in the series all-time. The Cougars have won 3 of the last 4. As you might expect, home field advantage isn’t always key in this one, as the visitor has won 12 of the last 21.

BYU has had a bit of a down year this season (the last before they again become an independent for some unknown reason), but they have won 4 straight (3-1 ATS) and they would love to end the regular season with a win over Utah. Utah was hanging in with TCU neck and neck before the Horned Frogs steamrolled them in a battle of unbeatens back in week 10.

The Utes have lost 2 of their last 3, and they are 1-3 ATS in their last 4. The Cougars are 1-4 on the road this season, while the Utes are 4-1 at home. Utah will be trying to reach the 10-win mark for a 3rd consecutive season, something they have never before accomplished.

Game 13: LSU (+3.5) @ Arkansas
Pick: LSU pulls off the upset
Comment: These neighbors fight for the Golden Boot. This game has been memorable in recent years for both fantastic finishes and surprising outcomes. The last 5 meetings have been decided by 5 points or less. 2 of the last 3 have gone to overtime. LSU is the traditional favorite. The Tigers have a 34-19-2 edge in the all-time series, and they have gone 23-7-1 against the Hogs since 1930. While the Tigers continue to survive by hook or crook, the Hogs have really been coming on strong lately. They have won 5 straight (5-0 ATS) and they are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.

Game 14: Florida (+2.5) @ Florida State
Pick: Florida pulls off the upset
Comment: This in-state rivalry is interesting because its esteem and prestige has really depended on the period in time. Florida holds the all-time series edge at 33-19-2. The Gators have had a great rivalry with Georgia for many, many years, so the instate rivalry was secondary for a long time. Also, Florida really dominated the Seminoles early on. Bobby Bowden’s arrival in Tallahassee changed things, however, and since 1976 the Gators’ edge is just 18-17-1. Of course Florida fell off for a while soon after Bowden took over at FSU, and the Noles took control of the rivalry for the first time. The Gators rebounded, and regained control of the series in the first half of the 80’s, but then Florida ran into trouble with the NCAA. Not only did Florida’s ensuing punishment allow the Noles to turn the tables in the rivalry for the next few years, the sanctions against the Gators helped Bowden transform FSU into a powerhouse. As Florida fell off, Miami and Florida State forged a heated rivalry.

It really wasn’t until Steve Spurrier returned to his Alma Mater in the early 90’s that the Florida-Florida State rivalry became huge, but during its heyday it was often the biggest game of the year in college football.

This rivalry is notable for its “streakiness.” The last 30-plus years have mostly been a series of streaks in this rivalry. Currently the Gators are streaking, although that may change this season.

The Gators have won the last 6 meetings between the two (first time since 1981-86), including 3 straight at FSU. This year the Gators are trying to rebuild after the end of the Tebow era, while the Noles are playing their first season without Bobby Bowden as head coach in 35 years. The Noles are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, but they are 5-1 at home this season.

Game 15: North Carolina (-9.5) @ Duke
Pick: North Carolina covers
Comment: This is without a doubt, by far and away, the greatest rivalry in all of college basketball. It’s essentially the only rivalry that means anything nationally. In football, on the other hand, it’s perhaps the most meaningless rivalry game nationally. I’m surprised that Tar Heel fans don’t care more than they seem to, because they absolutely own this thing. Duke should really be embarrassed. It used to be about as competitive (at least in terms of balance) as the basketball rivalry, but it’s not like that at all anymore. UNC has won 6 straight and 19 of the last 20. They have won 10 straight in Durham. The last 2 decades of dominance have given the Heels a commanding 57-35-4 edge in the all-time series.

North Carolina had high hopes for this season but it was all ruined by NCAA infractions before it could even begin. They need a win to clinch a winning record for a 3rd straight year. They are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. The Heels are 3-1 on the road this season (3-1 ATS). Duke is 5-2 ATS in their last 7.

Game 16: Mississippi State (-2.5) @ Mississippi
Pick: Mississippi State covers
Comment: The Egg Bowl. You never know what you’re gonna get. Except for recently when you knew you were going to get at least 1 and perhaps 2 shitty teams playing football in a shitty state. One fan base got its cowbells taken away to keep them from having an unfair advantage. The other fan base got its rebel flag taken away to keep them from looking like complete morons and embarrassing the entire country. Yet despite this, home teams have dominated this series in recent years. The visitor has lost 6 straight and 10 of the last 11.

Mississippi is the traditional favorite. They own a 60-40-6 edge in the all-time series. This year the Maroon Dogs will be trying to beat Mississippi in back to back years for the first time since 1995-96. MSU has lost their last 2 games, including last week’s heartbreaker against Arkansas. Mississippi is just 1-5 in their last 6 (2-4 ATS), but Houston Nutt is 10-2 in his career against Miss State. The Maroon Dogs are 2-2 on the road this season, while the Traitors are 3-3 at home (2-4 ATS).

Game 17: South Carolina (-3) @ Clemson
Pick: South Carolina covers
Comment: This one is sometimes called “The Battle of the Palmetto State.” This is actually quite fitting, since these two schools really have been battling for supremacy in the state since Reconstruction. This is sort of like two hillbillies diving into a compost pile and fighting over a scrap of salt pork, but that’s besides the point. I don’t really like the title of this game because the title of “The Palmetto State” is just kind of gay. But I guess there weren’t many better options when it came to giving the blight of the south a nickname.

Clemson is the traditional favorite. The Tigers have basically dominated the Gamecocks for over a century now. They hold a 65-38-4 edge in the all-time series. In recent times Clemson has fallen off a bit as a program, while South Carolina has risen as a program, yet the Tigers have still maintained superiority over “Cocky” and his/her friends from Columbia. Clemson has won 10 of the last 13, including the last 6 at Death Valley. South Carolina has been an underdog in the last 8 matchups, and has pulled off an upset just twice.

This year the Cocks will be favored. South Carolina won last season and this year they will try and win back to back games over the Tigers for the first time since 1969-1970. They will also be trying for their first 9-win season under Steve Spurrier (last 9-win season was in 2001) and just their 2nd 9-win season since 1984. The Tigers will be trying to avoid their first 6-6 regular season since 1999. South Carolina is 2-2 on the road this season, while Clemson is 5-1 at home (2-4 ATS).

Game 18: Georgia Tech (+12) @ Georgia
Pick: Georgia covers
Comment: Obviously this one is near and dear to my heart. Clean Old Fashioned Hate. You gotta admit it’s a good name. I mean, I get super pumped up for all of my favorite teams’ games, whether it’s the Braves, Falcons, Hawks, or the Dawgs. But for me this is the biggest. This one can ruin my mood for untold days to come. It can also satisfy me even when there is little else to feel good about. Kill Tech.

The Dawgs are the traditional favorite. They hold a 60-39-5 edge in the all-time series. There was a time when Tech was the better program, but since the mid-60’s Georgia has basically owned this grudge match. The Dawgs are 34-12 against the Jackets since 1964. They have won 15 of 19 since 1991. Tech won the last game in Athens in 2008, and the Dawgs are just 3-3 in their last 6 at home against the Techies.

This is a huge game for Georgia and Mark Richt. The Dawgs need a win to avoid their first losing season since 1996. They will be coming off of a bye, and it is always good to have extra time to prepare against an unusual offensive scheme like the one Tech uses. Also, Aaron Murray is the key to everything Georgia does offensively, and the week off has given him time to heal after the beating he took against Auburn. Also, Josh Nesbitt is out for the season due to injury, so Tech will be without one of their biggest weapons and will have an inexperienced man running their quirky offense. UGA is 4-2 in their last 6 (4-2 ATS) and 4-1 at home this season (4-1 ATS). The Jackets are just 1-3 in their last 4 (1-3 ATS) and 4-7 ATS on the season. They are 2-3 on the road (2-3 ATS). Kill Tech.

Kill Tech.

Kill Tech.

Kill Tech.

Game 19: Oklahoma (+3) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Oklahoma State covers
Comment: Bedlam. I actually like the name. My only problem with it is that there’s almost never bedlam or even anything out of the ordinary happening in this series. To say that Oklahoma is the traditional favorite in this series would be like saying that Terrell Owens is traditionally the biggest douche on his team. It’s not that the statement is incorrect; it’s that it doesn’t come anywhere close to explaining the situation. Terrell Owens is quite possibly the biggest douche to ever participate in organized team athletics, and Oklahoma has had the Red Heads biting a pillow for over a century.

The Sooners are 80-17-7 all-time against Okie State. That’s the most lopsided tally between instate rivals in all of college football. They have won the last 7 meetings between these 2, including 3 straight in Stillwater. Oklahoma State has defeated Oklahoma 17 times in 104 meetings; last season the Sooners defeated the Cowboys 27-0, shutting Oklahoma State out for the 31st time in 104 meetings. Even in this one-sided rivalry, last year’s domination was ridiculous. The Sooners held Oklahoma State’s offense to 109 total yards. They held the Cowboys to 4 yards in the 2nd half. Yes, 4 yards.

When the Cowboys have beaten the Sooners it has almost always been a significant upset, but this season Oklahoma State may actually be the better team. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS this season. They are 5-1 at home (4-2 ATS). Oklahoma is just 6-5 ATS. They are 2-2 on the road (1-3 ATS). If the Cowboys win they will head to the Big XII Championship Game for the first time. They would also have the first 11-win season in their history. If the Sooners win and Texas A&M losses, Oklahoma would go to the conference title game. Even if A&M wins, if Oklahoma wins this game to finish in a 3-way tie with Oklahoma State and the Aggies, they would likely go to the conference title game anyway, as they would almost certainly win the tie-breaker as the team ranked highest in the BCS.

Game 20: Notre Dame (+3) @ USC
Pick: USC covers
Comment: It’s debatable whether or not this actually is a rivalry game. Unlike most rivalry games, this one did not naturally occur due to close proximity or being in the same conference. At one time these were two of the premier programs in the sport, as well as two of the most popular. Quite often the outcome of the game had national implications, and the rosters often included some of the brightest stars in college football. They were also teams with fan bases on opposite ends of the country, at a time when teams tended to stay close to home, and that added to the feeling that it was sort of a special game.

But all of that was in the past. USC was arguably the #1 team in the decade of the 2000’s, but Notre Dame hasn’t been a national power since the early 90’s, and they haven’t been relevant on any level for the last 15 years. Now USC has fallen hard due to the exit of Pete Carroll and the sanctions handed down by the great and terrible NCAA this summer. Still, this is somewhat of a unique rivalry. Aside from a few years during WWII when the series was understandably halted, these two teams have faced each other every season since 1926, with the location alternating between Los Angeles and South Bend.

You could say that Notre Dame has been the traditional favorite. They hold a 42-33-5 lead in the all-time series. But over the last 40 years the two teams have alternated streaks of dominance. USC rose to great heights in the 1970’s, and for the first time they took control of this series. But then the Trojans virtually disappeared for 15 years, during which time Notre Dame returned to glory and retook control of the rivalry with USC. Then as Notre Dame’s program eroded into mediocrity, Pete Carroll came to LA and turned USC into a dynasty. The Trojans once again took firm control of the series with the Irish.

USC has won the last 8 meetings by an average score of 40-15. They have won the last 4 meetings in LA. The last time here was a total humiliation for Charlie Weiss and the Irish, as USC held ND to 91 yards and 4 first downs in the game. This season the Irish have struggled on and off the field. They are 4-5-2 ATS. They have played only 2 true road games, going 1-1 (2-0 ATS). The Trojans are just 5-6 ATS. They are just 3-2 at home (1-4 ATS). ND needs a win to avoid a 3rd straight 6-6 regular season.

Other Games

Tuesday

Temple (-6.5) @ Miami (Ohio) (Temple covers)

Friday

Louisville (-3.5) @ Rutgers (Louisville covers)

Ohio (-3.5) @ Kent State (Ohio covers)

Northern Illinois (-24) @ Eastern Michigan (NIU covers)

Buffalo (Pick) @ Akron (Buffalo covers)

Western Michigan (-7) @ Bowling Green (BG beats the spread)

Central Michigan (+3.5) @ Toledo (Toledo covers)

SMU (Pick) @ East Carolina (SMU covers)

UCLA (+12.5) @ Arizona State (ASU covers)

Colorado (+17.5) @ Nebraska (Nebraska covers)

Southern Mississippi (+3.5) @ Tulsa (Southern Miss beats the spread)

Saturday

Cincinnati (+1.5) @ Connecticut (UConn covers)

Boston College (+3) @ Syracuse (Cuse covers)

Central Florida (-25) @ Memphis (CF covers)

Tulane (+9.5) @ Marshall (Marshall covers)

South Florida (+11.5) @ Miami (Miami covers)

Hawaii (-26) @ New Mexico State (Hawaii covers)

Washington (+7.5) @ California (Cal covers)

Florida Atlantic (+4.5) @ Middle Tennessee (FAU pulls off the upset)

Louisiana-Lafayette (+7) @ Louisiana-Monroe (ULL beats the spread)

Western Kentucky (+13) @ Troy (WK beats the spread)

Arkansas State (+5) @ Florida International (Arkansas State beats the spread)

Northwestern (+23) @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)

UAB (-3) @ Rice (UAB covers)

NC State (-2.5) @ Maryland (NC State covers)

Iowa (-15.5) @ Minnesota (Iowa covers)

Kansas State (-14.5) @ North Texas (KSU covers)

TCU (-43.5) @ New Mexico (TCU covers)

Wake Forest (+6) @ Vanderbilt (WF beats the spread)

Oregon State (+14) @ Stanford (Stanford covers)

Houston (+9) @ Texas Tech (Texas Tech covers)

UNLV (+24) @ San Diego State (SD State covers)

Louisiana Tech (-11.5) @ San Jose State (LT covers)

Idaho (+11) @ Fresno State (Fresno State covers)

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