The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 11 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 5-5; Vs. Spread: 6-4)

Overall (Straight up: 35-17; Vs. Spread: 30-22; Moneyline Upsets: 1-2)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 71-29; Vs. Spread: 47-48-5)

Overall (Straight up: 379-121; Vs. Spread: 252-240-8; Moneyline Upsets: 12-21)

Week 10 Review: I can’t complain too much because I had a good week against the spread, but I’d like to be able to pick more than half of the winners of the 10 biggest games of the week.

Week 11 Preview: I don’t know. I’m not all that psyched about this week. It seems almost like a wasted week. There’s really not a truly big game. At least there’s not a truly big matchup. There’s always the chance that a big game could emerge, but I don’t think it’s likely. Auburn plays at home against a middling (gotta be honest) Georgia team. Oregon is on the road but they’re facing a Cal team that is below average. Boise State is favored by 5 touchdowns. And TCU is not going to lose to anybody in the Mountain West (we know that for certain now). If any one of those teams loses this week it will be a total shock.

Saturday

Game 1: Texas Tech (+16.5) @ Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: Oklahoma is not a great team right now, but they are still mighty tough to beat in Norman. When I say mighty tough to beat, I mean they are 71-2 at home since Bob Stoops took over in 1999. The home team has won 6 in a row in this series. Last time here the Sooners ruined Texas Tech’s national title hopes with a 65-21 thrashing that would eventually put Oklahoma in the national title game instead. The Red Raiders are 1-2-1 ATS on the road this season, while Oklahoma is 3-2 ATS at home. The Sooners are 19-8-1 ATS at home since the start of the 2006 season. Texas Tech got a big win over Mizzu at home last week that should allow them to get bowl eligible this season, with games left against Weber State and Houston at home. But it will be tough to pull off back to back big victories.

Game 2: Oklahoma State (-6.5) @ Texas
Pick: Texas beats the spread
Comment: I did not think that the Longhorns would have a season like this under Mack Brown. They are not very good. Texas has lost 3 straight and 5 of their last 6. They’re 1-3 at home this season. They are 2-7 ATS and 0-5 ATS at home. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, has avoided a rebuilding season and is in contention for the Big XII South title. The Cowboys are 7-2 ATS this season. They are 3-0 on the road (3-0 ATS). This is one of those though ones where everything you’ve seen this season says that Oklahoma State should win, but the history is pretty impressive in the other direction. Texas has won 12 straight over the Cowboys. Okie State has defeated the Longhorns in Austin exactly once, and that was in 1944.

Game 3: Utah (-5.5) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Utah covers
Comment: Hopefully the Utes will be able to get past last week’s humbling experience against TCU. They are 4-0 on the road this season (3-1 ATS) and 6-2-1 ATS overall. Notre Dame is coming off a bye week, and they needed it, as they are really banged up. But needless to say it probably wasn’t the most comfortable week off in South Bend. The Irish are 2-5-2 ATS this season. They are just 3-3 at home (0-4-2 ATS). ND will be without their starting QB, but he’s not any good anyway. Notre Dame was just 1-8 in November the previous 2 seasons.

Game 4: Penn State (+17) @ Ohio State
Pick: Ohio State covers
Comment: The Nittany Lions aren’t being given much of a chance in this one, and there’s probably good reason for that, all though they have won their last 3 games. They are 4-5 ATS on the season and 1-2 on the road (1-2 ATS on the road). Ohio State is 6-0 at home (6-0 ATS at home) and 7-2 overall ATS. The Buckeyes will be coming off of a bye, while PSU will be coming off of an emotional comeback win over Northwestern for Joe Pa’s 400th victory. The home team has actually lost 3 straight in this series. The higher ranked team has won 17 of 19 in this series since 1978. Penn State has scored 20 points or less in their last 8 meetings with the Buckeyes, averaging just 12 points per game over that stretch.

Game 5: Virginia Tech (-5.5) @ North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina beats the spread
Comment: I just can’t figure out the ACC. At some point the loss of all of those players has got to catch up to UNC. VT will have a couple of extra days to prepare for this one. It’s been close lately. Last year UNC won 20-17 in Blacksburg; the year before, VT won 20-17 in Chapel Hill.

Game 6: Georgia (+8.5) @ Auburn
Pick: Auburn covers
Comment: This is obviously a huge game for Auburn, as they are closing in on an undefeated regular season, and trying to stay on track for a spot in the NC game. It’s also a big game for the Dawgs (at least in my opinion), even though there are no expectations of them winning this game, nationally or locally. I don’t really know why, but for some reason there are little streaks and accomplishments that matter to me more than I think they do for most Georgia fans. I think most Georgia fans judge success in terms of national titles, SEC titles, and SEC East titles. I think a lot about those things too, but I also care about things like win totals, winning records, bowl trips, and bowl victories. Georgia has had a winning record, gone to a bowl, and won at least 8 games in each of the last 12 seasons. The Dawgs still have a chance to keep all of those things going, but it will take a lot, as they’d have to beat Auburn, Georgia Tech, and win a bowl game to get to 8 wins. They pulled it off last season, but that was a different Auburn team.

If the Dawgs lose this Saturday, they would have to beat Tech just to finish at 6-6. With so many bowls out there, the Dawgs would get to a bowl at 6-6 and they’d have a chance to finish with a winning record. That would be better than going 5-7 obviously, but I’ve always thought of the 8-win mark as .500. If you get to 8 wins, you had a decent season. Going 7-6 is basically a losing season for Georgia, considering that the Dawgs usually play a home game against a team from the Sun Belt or MAC, and another home game against an FCS school (plus Vandy). Honestly, I really think the 8-win streak is more important to me than the idea of knocking off the #2 team in the country or beating our cousins for a 5th year in a row.

Anyway, the Dawgs indeed have won 4 straight and 6 of the last 8 in this old rivalry. There’s usually not much home field advantage in this series, as each team is just as capable of winning at home as they are in the other team’s place. It actually wasn’t that long ago that the Dawgs were going up against a “surprise” undefeated Auburn team on the road. It was in 2004, when the Tigers were kept out of the National Championship game despite going undefeated in the SEC. We lost that game 24-6. The enduring memory I have from that one is Reggie Brown being knocked out cold on a skinny post. I’m pretty sure there will be more than 30 points scored in this game. Auburn is only 6-4 ATS this season.

Game 7: Texas A&M (-3) @ Baylor
Pick: Baylor beats the spread
Comment: All of the sudden the Aggies are hot. A&M has won 3 straight, including last week’s stunner over Oklahoma. However, the Aggies are just 3-18 on the road in November since 1998. Baylor had won 3 straight before they ran into Oklahoma State last Saturday. The Bears are 4-0 at home this season, and the home team has won 6 of 7 in this series, but A&M has dominated this series for most of the last quarter century. Baylor is just 2-21-1 in their last 24 games against A&M, but the 2 wins have come out of the last 3 in Waco. Last time here in 2008, Baylor rocked the Aggies 41-21, outgaining them 510-308.

Game 8: Mississippi State (+14) @ Alabama
Pick: Mississippi State beats the spread
Comment: It would be hard to imagine Bama losing again this week. They have won 18 straight at home, but Mississippi State will not be intimidated. The Maroon Dogs will be coming off of a bye and riding a 6 game win streak.

Game 9: South Carolina (+7) @ Florida
Pick: South Carolina beats the spread
Comment: A very large game for both teams, with the winner heading to the Georgia Dome as SEC East champ. This is a huge game for Spurrier’s legacy, as he has so far failed to deliver up to expectations in Columbia, but taking the Gamecocks to the SEC Championship Game for their first time would go a long ways towards changing that. For the Gators and Urban Meyer, this is all about salvaging this season and gaining momentum towards the next championship run.
Everything except a national title is still attainable for both of these teams. Florida has already lost 2 at home this season, and it would be shocking to see them go down 3 times at the Swamp.

The Gators have won 4 straight in this series and 18 of the last 19. Spurrier is 1-4 against his old school. The Gamecocks beat Florida in Columbia in Spurrier’s first season there, handing Meyer a loss in his first season at Florida. But Spurrier hasn’t been able to repeat that feat. It got ugly the last time here in 2008 (56-6). These two teams first played in 1911, and South Carolina has never defeated the Gators in Florida.

Game 10: USC (+5) @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona covers
Comment: USC is running out of opportunities to prove that they’re any good. Right now it looks like they aren’t very good at all. Arizona snapped a 7 game skid against the Trojans last year, winning at the Coliseum 21-17. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against USC. USC is 3-1 ATS on the road this season.

Other Games

Tuesday

Toledo (+11.5) @ Northern Illinois (NIU covers)

Wednesday

Miami (Ohio) (-3.5) @ Bowling Green (Miami (OH) covers)

Thursday

Pittsburgh (-6.5) @ Connecticut (UConn beats the spread)

East Carolina (+2.5) @ UAB (UAB covers)

Friday

Ball State (+3) @ Buffalo (BSU pulls off the upset)

Boise State (-35) @ Idaho (Boise State covers)

Saturday

South Florida (+2.5) @ Louisville (Louisville covers)

Indiana (+21.5) @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)

Cincinnati (+6.5) @ West Virginia (WV covers)

Minnesota (+20.5) @ Illinois (Illinois covers)

Southern Miss (+9.5) @ Central Florida (CF covers)

Miami (-3) @ Georgia Tech (Miami covers)

Iowa (-12) @ Northwestern (NW beats the spread)

Boston College (-3) @ Duke (BC covers)

Michigan (-13) @ Purdue (Michigan covers)

Mississippi (+2) @ Tennessee (Mississippi pulls off the upset)

Vanderbilt (+14.5) @ Kentucky (Kentucky covers)

Kansas State (+12.5) @ Missouri (KSU beats the spread)

Iowa State (-2.5) @ Colorado (Iowa State covers)

Wake Forest (+19) @ North Carolina State (NC State covers)

Army (-3) @ Kent State (Kent State beats the spread)

Eastern Michigan (+16) @ Western Michigan (WM covers)

BYU (-6) @ Colorado State (CSU beats the spread)

Western Kentucky (+11) @ Arkansas State (Arkansas State covers)

Memphis (+16.5) @ Marshall (Marshall covers)

Syracuse (-3) @ Rutgers (Cuse covers)

Maryland (-1.5) @ Virginia (Maryland covers)

Rice (+6) @ Tulane (Tulane covers)

Central Michigan (+16.5) @ Navy (Navy covers)

North Texas (+9) @ Middle Tennessee State (NT beats the spread)

Florida International (+8.5) @ Troy (Troy covers)

San Diego State (+27) @ TCU (TCU covers)

Washington State (+22.5) @ Oregon State (Washington State beats the spread)

New Mexico (+32) @ Air Force (AF covers)

Louisiana Tech (-13.5) @ New Mexico State (LT covers)

Louisiana-Monroe (+31) @ LSU (LSU covers)

Louisiana-Lafayette (+6) @ Florida Atlantic (ULL beats the spread)

UTEP (+30.5) @ Arkansas (Arkansas covers)

Kansas (+34.5) @ Nebraska (Nebraska covers)

Stanford (-6.5) @ Arizona State (Stanford covers)

Oregon (-20) @ California (California beats the spread)

Clemson (+7.5) @ Florida State (Clemson beats the spread)

Tulsa (+2) @ Houston (Tulsa pulls off the upset)

Utah State (-3.5) @ San Jose State (Utah State covers)

Wyoming (-7) @ UNLV (Wyoming covers )

Nevada (-9) @ Fresno State (Nevada covers)