The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 11 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-9); Straight Up: (5-9)

Season: Vs. Spread (59-81-4); Straight Up: (81-63)

Week 10 Review: Okay, I give up.

Week 11 Preview: Well, we’re finally back to a full slate of games this week, and that presumably means more incorrect picks for me. Yet for some reason I have a strange feeling of confidence about this week.

Thursday Night’s Game

Chicago (+1) @ Miami
Pick: Dolphins cover
Comment: Earlier in the season it didn’t look like Jay Cutler would survive the season. Last week the Dolphins lost two quarterbacks to season ending injuries. With the Chad’s out of the picture, the Fins will be led by Tyler Thigpen. Making matters more precarious, left tackle Jake Long also suffered a serious injury last week and will not be in the lineup to protect the new starting QB on Sunday.

The Dolphins have proven to be a resilient bunch over the last few years, but this time they won’t have the Wildcat (or at least they won’t have the benefit of surprise and unfamiliarity that came along with it a couple of years ago) to fall back on. Miami is 6-3 ATS on the season and 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games. They are a puzzling 1-3 at home so far this season.

Sunday’s Early Games

Buffalo (+5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Bengals win but Bills beat the spread
Comment: The Bills finally got off the schnide last week, holding off the Lions for their first win of the year. They are just 1-8 on the season but 4-4-1 ATS. They are 0-4 on the road but 3-1 ATS on the road. The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS over their last 4 games. Things have not turned out well in Cinci this season, and you get the feeling that it could get pretty ugly during the second half of the year. The Bungles are 2-7 on the season and 1-3 at home. They have lost 6 in a row (1-5 ATS over that stretch).

By the way, even after everything that has gone on to this point, I was still amazed that Terrell Owens would publicly (via Twitter) criticize Donovan McNabb’s performance during Washington’s loss to the Eagles, and question how anyone could “justify” the contract extension McNabb received. I mean, imagine Tom Brady sending out a tweet during MNF about how much Matt Hasselbeck sucks and is overpaid. It’s the same thing, we’re just so numb to T.O. that we don’t immediately see it as totally bizarre and absurd.

Detroit (+6.5) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Lions beat the spread
Comment: You could look at Dallas’ performance against the Giants last week as encouraging and redeeming. You might say that they showed that they did have some pride and professionalism after all. Or you could see it as a bit sad that the difference in effort and intensity could be that extreme based on the removal of a head coach. The Boys are still just 2-7 (2-7 ATS) and they are 0-4 at home (0-4 ATS at home). Jon Kitna will be going up against his former team on Sunday, as the hard luck Lions come to Big D. The Lions are also 2-7, but there’s a decidedly different feel to their season. They are 7-2 ATS. The Lions are 0-5 on the road, but 3-2 ATS on the road. Shaun Hill will be under center for Detroit.

Arizona (+9) @ Kansas City
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: The Chiefs are struggling and this is a big game for them, as they have lost 2 in a row. They are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games. However, they are 4-0 at home this season (3-1 ATS), and the Cardinals suck. Arizona is just 1-4 on the road, and the Cards have lost their last 4 games (1-3 ATS over that stretch).

Houston (+7) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets win but Texans beat the spread
Comment: This is a huge game for Houston and Gary Kubiak. They have lost 3 straight and are now 4-5 on the year. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. They lost last week on a Hail Mary pass. Now they have to go play the Jets, who are 7-2, but could easily be 4-5 themselves. The Jets are coming off of back to back overtime road wins.

Cleveland (+1) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Browns pull off the upset
Comment: These two teams come into week 11 from opposite ends of the spectrum. Cleveland lost a heartbreaker in overtime to the Jets last week. The Jags beat the Texans on a Hail Mary pass at the buzzer last Sunday. Cleveland is just 1-3 on the road.

Oakland (+7) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: The 1970’s Oakland-Pittsburgh rivalry might be my favorite in NFL history. That was a long time ago, but calling this a possible playoff preview is not a joke (as it would have been a month ago). The Raiders are 5-4 (6-3 ATS) and coming off of a bye. They are just 1-3 on the road, but 3-1 ATS on the road. They have won 3 straight and they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. This might actually be a bigger game for the Steelers. Pittsburgh has lost 2 of 3 and they are 2-4 ATS over their last 6 games. They are just 2-2 at home this season. The Steelers are banged up on both sides of the ball and on special teams.

Baltimore (-10) @ Carolina
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: The Ravens lost a very tough game last Thursday in Atlanta, but they get a break this week. They will get extra rest and then get to play the miserable Panthers, who are now 1-8 (2-7 ATS). The Panthers are 1-4 at home (1-4 ATS).

Green Bay (-3) @ Minnesota
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: Both of these teams have been hit with significant injury problems this season, but they have dealt with bad luck in different ways. The Packers have gotten back on track, having won 3 straight (3-0 ATS over that stretch), while the Vikings continue to play poorly, mope, and bitch. The Vikes are 3-6 (2-7 ATS) and this is without question a must win for them. They are 3-1 at home. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS over their last 4 games. In week 7, the Packers held off the Vikings to win 28-24 in Green Bay. The Vikings have beaten the Pack in the last two meetings in Minnesota. The Vikes still have a number of health issues at receiver.

Washington (+7) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans win but Redskins beat the spread
Comment: The good news for Washington is that they don’t have to face Michael Vick this Sunday. The bad news is that they will have to face another athletic QB in Vince Young. They may also be stuck having to go with reserves at the running back position again this week. The Titans will not have Kenny Britt this week, and it will be all up to Young, as Kerry Collins is not healthy. This is a big game for both teams, as they are each trying to avoid a 3rd consecutive loss.

Sunday’s Late Games

Atlanta (-3) @ St. Louis
Pick: Falcons win but Rams beat the spread
Comment: This could be a trap game for the Falcons, who will be coming off of a huge win over the Ravens and a longer break between games. They are 7-2 and they have won 3 in a row. The Rams are a very competitive team. They are 4-5 (7-2 ATS) overall and 4-1 at home (4-1 ATS at home). The Rams are coming off of an OT loss to the Niners. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games.

Tampa Bay (+3) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: Things are getting better for the Niners, who have won 2 straight and 3 of their last 4. They seem to have found something in Troy Smith. Still, San Fran is just 1-4 ATS over their last 5. They are 1-3 ATS at home this season. The Bucs are 3-1 on the road (4-0 ATS on the road) and they are 3-0 ATS over their last 3 games.

Seattle (+12) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The Saints could be starting to roll. They have won 3 of 4 (3-1 ATS over that stretch) and they are coming off of a bye. However, they are still not healthy at running back, and they have already lost twice at home this season. If they are close to being back to what they were last year they will slaughter the Seahawks.

Indianapolis (+3) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: The best rivalry in the NFL over the last decade. This one was once owned by New England, but the Colts have turned the tables, winning 5 of the last 6. Indy is banged up and just 2-3 on the road this season. The Pats are 4-0 at home.

Sunday Night’s Game

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: Sunday night’s matchup is another classic rivalry. The Giants are coming off of an inexcusable let down against Dallas, while the Eagles are coming off of one of the most impressive performances in recent memory. The G-Men are 3-1 on the road this season (3-1 ATS), while the Eagles are just 2-2 at home (1-3 ATS). However, the Eagles have won 2 straight and 4 of 5, and they are now healthy. The Giants, meanwhile, have now lost receiver Steve Smith. The Eagles have won 4 straight in this series by an average of 12 points. One of the stranger aspects of this rivalry is the fact that one team has swept the season series over the other in 21 of the last 25 years.

Monday Night’s Game

Denver (+10) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers cover
Comment: We close out the week with another division rivalry. It seems like the Chargers have owned the Broncos recently, but Denver won last year in San Diego on MNF. Prior to last season the Chargers had won 3 in a row over the Broncos at home. Denver snapped a 4 game skid last week with an easy win over KC. Like the Saints, the Chargers could be starting to roll. They have won their last 2 and they are coming off of a bye. They are also getting healthier. The Chargers are just 4-5 on the season but they are 3-1 at home (3-1 ATS at home).