The College Football Blog: 2010 Power Rankings (After Week 13)

Power Rankings after Week 13

1. Oregon 11-0 (1st)
2. Ohio State 11-1 (2nd)
3. Auburn 12-0 (3rd)
4. Arkansas 10-2 (9th)
5. Wisconsin 11-1 (8th)
6. Stanford 11-1 (10th)
7. Alabama 9-3 (5th)
8. TCU 12-0 (6th)
9. LSU 10-2 (4th)
10. Boise State 10-1 (7th)
11. South Carolina 9-3 (13th)
12. Nebraska 10-2 (12th)
13. Texas A&M 9-3 (14th)
14. Michigan State 11-1 (15th)
15. Oklahoma 10-2 (NR)

Out: Oklahoma State (11th).

Explanation: These rankings are pointless for many reasons, but perhaps the biggest reason is that the guidelines are just about impossible to follow. I’m sure I’d learned this lesson before, but I realized it again this week.

To begin with, while I think I do a very good job of factoring in non-season ending injuries, sometimes it just doesn’t make any sense. For example, Mark Ingram had knee surgery just before the start of the season and there’s no question that he hasn’t been 100% all season. But when would he be 100%? 6 months from now? Maybe, but the hypothetical national championship game I picture when doing these rankings would not be 6 months from now, so even though it wasn’t anything like a season ending injury, I still have to consider that type of injury.

Another problem is that at times it can be a little tricky to determine how a team would play in a hypothetical national championship game. Sometimes when a team loses I chalk it up to the grind of the schedule or a lack of focus. But a lot of times I’m only guessing.

Another issue is that it’s so hard not to be effected by the final outcome of a game. Again, I think I do a good job in this area, but there’s no way to be completely unaffected by whether a team ultimately wins or loses a game. Take Boise State for example. They lost at Nevada last week and I moved them down in my rankings. But shouldn’t I have moved them down anyway even if they had made the chip shot field goal at the end of regulation? I probably should have, but I can’t say for sure whether I would have or not.

And then there’s the problem with not putting extra weight into what’s happened recently. This is also something that I think I do a really good job dealing with, but it’s impossible to be completely immune to recent events. I went into the season thinking that Alabama would beat Arkansas in a hypothetical national championship game on a neutral field. Then I saw Alabama beat Arkansas at Arkansas. However, since then I’ve seen Alabama lose to South Carolina and LSU, and I’ve seen Arkansas whip both of those teams. Naturally my views on the two teams have changed, but what would happen in that hypothetical game? That’s where it gets tricky. I have finally realized that there’s no need to do a “hottest team” ranking like I thought of doing in the past, because whether I like it or not, that “hotness factor” works its way into these rankings.

Finally, perhaps the whole endeavor is ultimately based on a misconception: the idea that one can rank teams from 1 to 120 based on who would win a head to head matchup. The reason for this is simple but it’s hard for me to admit: matchups do matter. I’ve always been loath to give credence to the belief often repeated by analysts that any game is all about matchups. I don’t like this concept. I’ve always held the belief that if a team is “better” than another team then the “better” team will win most of the time, regardless of the specific strengths and weaknesses of each team. However, I’ve recently been forced to come to grips with the fact that this isn’t always true.

For example, say there is a team that has such a powerful rushing game that almost nobody can stop them. That team may be able to beat almost everyone, but perhaps there is a decent team that is absolutely dominant against the run. They may be average in every other aspect of the game, and maybe they lose 4 games, while the other team goes undefeated. But if these two met in a hypothetical championship game, maybe the 4-loss team would be favored because they would be able to shutdown the undefeated team’s running game.

Having said all of this, I’m going to keep doing these rankings even if it is a fruitless endeavor. After all, unlike the polls and the computers in the BCS, these rankings don’t matter.

Anyway, it was difficult to do these rankings this week. Teams can look completely different from week to week. And it’s just a difficult task to rank the teams around college football because of the conferences. This is particularly true in the case of the non-BCS conferences.

The top 3 teams in my rankings stayed the same this week. Oregon ran over Arizona in the 2nd half on Friday night, winning 48-29 to stay undefeated at 11-0. The Ducks remained the top team in my rankings this week. I doubt many people have Ohio State ranked #2 at this point, but the Buckeyes were again ranked 2nd in my rankings this week after they dominated Michigan 37-7 to finish 12-0. The Wolverines had scored at least 17 points in every game this season and had scored at least 27 points in 10 of their 11 games prior to Saturday. Auburn remained #3 in my rankings despite their enormous comeback win over Bama on the road. While the Tigers certainly erased a lot of doubts with their stunning comeback from a 24-7 deficit, the truth of the matter is that Auburn could easily have been down 42-7.

While my rankings stayed the same at the very top, there was plenty of change throughout the rest of my top 15. 11 of the 12 spots between #4 and #15 experienced change this week. The team making the biggest rise in my rankings this week was Arkansas, who climbed 5 spots from 9th to 4th after beating LSU 31-23 to finish 10-2. Once again the Hogs got little help from the officials and the final score was much closer than it should have been, but they won their 6th straight game, beating an LSU team that had lost only 1 game all year.

Wisconsin also made a big jump in my rankings this week, climbing 3 spots from 8th to 5th following their 70-23 win over Northwestern. Over the last 4 weeks, the Badgers have outscored opponents by an average of 59-21. Their only loss this season was on the road to Michigan State.
Stanford also made a major move up the rankings this week, rising 4 spots from 10th to 6th. Stanford has been a high scoring team all season, putting up at least 31 points in 11 of 12 games. There have been two major questions about Stanford. How would they play on the road and how tough was their defense. They have answered both questions positively. They are 5-1 on the road (only loss at Oregon when they had a huge lead but wound up losing by 21) and they have held opponents to 17 points or less in 8 of 12 games, including 3 shutouts over Pac-10 teams.

Maybe the most controversial aspect of my rankings this week is that Alabama fell only 2 spots from 5th to 7th. Bama lost for a 3rd time on Friday, this time falling at home to Auburn, 28-27. Alabama has underachieved this season, and to some extent they are only as good as their record says they are. On the other hand, I still think that Bama would be one of the toughest teams to play. Last week they played the team ranked 3rd in these rankings and lost to them by a point, after having them down 24-7 at one point. And remember that QB Greg McElroy suffered a head injury late in the game and was knocked out for the final drive.

Another thing that many people would likely disagree with is TCU’s position in this week’s rankings, as I moved them down 2 spots from 6th to 8th. The Horned Frogs obliterated New Mexico on Saturday to finish the season 12-0. They have been totally dominant this year and have been great for the last 3 years. Still, I would not favor them against the top teams in the biggest conferences. They have not played a great team all season and they have played only a few teams which could even be considered good.

When LSU lost to Arkansas on Saturday night it was just their 2nd loss of the season, but the Tigers dropped 5 spots in my rankings from 4th to 9th. LSU has been very fortunate this season. They have had clear weaknesses and consistently made mistakes, but you had to give them credit for winning games. Last week they could not overcome their problems, despite several breaks. LSU’s defense has been their strength this season, but they have looked downright ordinary on that side of the ball in the last two weeks, allowing 36 points to a bad Mississippi team, and getting gashed over and over by Arkansas on Saturday.

Boise State also took a fall in my rankings this week, though they probably fell much farther in most people’s rankings after they choked at Nevada late Friday night. The Broncos lost for the first time on the season, losing 34-31 in OT, and they dropped 3 spots in my rankings from 7th to 10th. They could easily have won, and I don’t think it’s overdoing it to say that they should have won. Kyle Brotzman missed a chip shot field goal that would have given the Broncos the win in regulation, and then missed another short field goal in overtime that allowed Nevada to win it with a short field goal of their own. In addition, the Broncos jumped out to a big lead and dominated the early part of the game. Also, they were playing on the road in the cold against a good Nevada team.

However, Boise State had been a virtual lock to win their previous 7 games and this was going to be their only road test of the year. They virtually had two months to prepare for this game, and they were well rested and healthy, having blown out every opponent following their 37-24 win over Oregon State on September 25th. Everything was at stake. Considering all of these things, it really doesn’t look good for them that they allowed this game to be close. We can talk about this being a hostile environment, but the fact of the matter is that the attendance at the game in Reno on Friday night was 30,712. That’s 71,109 fewer people than there were at Bryant-Denny earlier that day. Not to mention the fact that many of those in attendance were Boise State fans, and many of the Nevada supporters had left the game and the cold by the time the Wolf Pack began their comeback from down 24-7 late in the 3rd.

The Broncos allowed Nevada to erase a 17 point deficit in about 10 minutes. Then after retaking the lead, 31-24 with less than 5 minutes to go, they allowed the Pack to march the field and tie the score again. Nevada outgained the Broncos, putting up 528 yards of offense. So even before the kicker got involved they had done much to lose the game.

I have never had Boise State ranked as high as most people out there, so they don’t take as big of a tumble in my rankings. I still think they are a great team that could compete with the top teams in the country and wouldn’t be intimidated by anyone.

South Carolina beat Clemson on Saturday night to finish the regular season at 9-3, and the Gamecocks moved up 2 spots in my rankings from 13th to 11th. I’ve been impressed by South Carolina since their ugly loss to Arkansas in week 10. They came out the next week and won in Gainesville for the first time in their history, beating Florida 36-14 to win the SEC East. They had a trap game against Troy the next week, but they came out looking focused, putting up 69 points on the Trojans. Then last week they went on the road and spanked instate rival Clemson, 29-7. This is easily Steve Spurrier’s best South Carolina team.

Nebraska was the only team ranked outside the top 3 that stayed in place this week, remaining at 12th following their easy win over Colorado. It was impressive for them to put up 45 points without starting QB Taylor Martinez, but they are still very unpredictable and inconsistent.

Texas A&M got a rare win over archrival Texas on the road on Thanksgiving night to finish the regular season 9-3, having won 6 straight. I moved the Aggies up a spot from 14th to 13th. Similarly, Michigan State got a rare win over Penn State at Happy Valley. The Spartans also moved up 1 spot in my rankings from 15th to 14th.

The only team to fall out of my rankings this week was Oklahoma State, who fell from 11th to out of the top 15 following yet another loss to the Sooners. Oklahoma beat the red hot Cowboys 47-41 in Stillwater, and the Sooners jumped into my rankings this week at #15. Oklahoma was the only new team in my top 15 this week.