The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 10 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (6-6-1); Straight Up: (11-2)

Season: Vs. Spread (54-72-4); Straight Up: (76-54)

Week 9 Review: No matter how well I do straight up, I just can’t seem to make up any of the deficit against the spread. I guess it’s just not my year. Or maybe I’m just not any good at this.

Week 10 Preview: The first Thursday night game is this week, and this is also the last week of byes. That means it’s starting to get serious. I’m running out of chances to avoid a poor season.

Thursday Night’s Game

Baltimore (+1) @ Atlanta
Pick: Baltimore pulls off the upset
Comment: This is just very unfortunate scheduling for the Falcons. Atlanta played a back and forth, hard fought battle against Tampa Bay last week, and they are a little banged up. Now the Falcons have to go against one of the hardest hitting teams in the league on a very short week. I’m always pessimistic as a Falcons fan, and maybe I’ll be pleasantly surprised, but this game has stood out as a tough one since the schedules were released. Roddy White and Todd McClure are both highly questionable for the Falcons, and even if they can go they may not be effective. You don’t want to be without your biggest play maker and your center when going up against the Ravens. Both teams are 6-2. The Falcons are 4-0 at home, while the Ravens are 2-2 on the road.

Sunday’s Early Games

Detroit (+3) @ Buffalo
Pick: Bills win but Lions beat the spread
Comment: Maybe this is the week that the hard luck Bills finally get their first win. They are 0-8 on the season (3-4-1 ATS) and 0-3 at home (0-3 ATS), but they have not given up, despite some bad luck, not much to work with, and a fairly challenging schedule. They have lost 3 consecutive games by 3 points (2 of the 3 in overtime), 2 of those coming on the road and the other one coming at a neutral site. Detroit has also had a number of close losses. Some of this has been just plain bad luck, but last week they really let one get away against the Jets. The Lions seem to be having a hard time figuring out how to win now that they actually have a fighting chance most of the time. This is typical of a young team trying to get out of the cellar after years of constant losing, but it has to be rough on Detroit fans. Despite major improvements, the Lions are just 2-6 on the season, and now they have lost Matthew Stafford again. Shaun Hill is the backup, but he’s not completely healthy either. If anything happens to Hill the Lions will have to turn to Drew Stanton. Detroit is 0-4 on the road, but the Lions are 7-1 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS on the road.

New York Jets (-3) @ Cleveland
Pick: Jets win but Browns beat the spread
Comment: In my opinion, the personality of the wide receiver is one of the more fascinating aspects of modern sports. Receivers definitely share many of the traits of other modern professional athletes, but with receivers it is very often in exaggerated form, and with few exceptions. The traits I’m talking about are immaturity, selfishness, lack of awareness, an oversized ego, etc, etc. While outrageous behavior is the norm for receivers, there are times when it can still leave you absolutely stunned. This was the case for me this week when I heard about Braylon Edwards’ comments (most of them coming via Twitter) regarding his return to Cleveland this Sunday to face his former team. The amazing thing about receivers is that their vanity and hubris seems invincible even against repeated failure. Like Terrell Owens, Braylon Edwards’ biggest physical weakness is the dropped pass. Yet in both cases, they seem unaffected by this, even though it’s almost impossible to blame anyone but oneself after flat-out dropping a ball. It’s amusing that Edwards alluded to Owens in his comments this week by telling Browns fans to get their damn popcorn ready. The irony here is abundant, but the funniest (and yet saddest) part of it is that Edwards seems unaware that most people mocked Owens for that statement and viewed it as another example of him just not getting it.

The Browns traded Edwards to the Jets due to his off field problems, his attitude, and his inconsistent play. Edwards apparently feels great anger and resentment towards the Browns, their fans, and the media in Cleveland. It’s normal to feel hurt whenever something like this happens, and I suppose it’s normal—particularly for highly competitive people—to want to prove to those who rejected them that they were wrong. However, it’s not normal to be extremely cocky towards those people and to act as if you have been wronged, when it’s obvious that you were only rejected due to your behavior and your performance. I believe Michael Vick has grasped this. Of course he will be fired up every time he plays the Atlanta Falcons, because being let go by the franchise was a huge part of a very painful point in his life. At the same time, I think he understands that he was the person that caused the breakup in Atlanta. Edwards has apparently not figured this out.

Again, it would be totally understandable for Edwards to be thinking of the things that the Browns/the fans/the media did which hurt him in preparation for Sunday’s game. It might even be seen as a positive thing for him to pump himself up in this way. But to make public statements—many of them wholly unprovoked—about this, and to do it in a way which suggests that he was the victim in the situation, shows that Edwards is a total narcissist, along the lines of the T.O.’s, the Keyshawn’s, the Brandon Marshall’s, and so on.

Okay, sorry, I just had to get that off my chest. Eric Mangini shocked one of his former teams last week, and this week he will go up against his other former team. The Browns began the year 1-5, but in their last two games they have won at New Orleans by 13 and against the Patriots by 20. The Jets, on the other hand, are 6-2 but they have been shaky lately. They have been unimpressive in their last 3 games. They are 4-0 on the road, however, and Colt McCoy may be asked to do more this week if the Jets are able to slow down Peyton Hillis.

Carolina (+6.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Bucs cover
Comment: This is a second straight divisional game for the Bucs, who return home at 5-3 after a tough loss to the Falcons in Atlanta. The Bucs defeated the Panthers 20-7 at Carolina in week 2. Strangely, while the Bucs are 3-1 on the road, they are 2-2 at home, and they have lost 6 of their last 7 to Carolina at home. The Panthers are coming off of a bye, but they are just 1-7 on the season (2-6 ATS) and 0-3 on the road.

Cincinnati (+7) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: It’s a short week for the Bengals, who have lost 5 straight (0-5 ATS during that stretch), including Monday’s loss to the Steelers when their comeback bid came up short inside the 5 yard line. I would say something about Chad Johnson’s antics during that game but we’ve covered moronic receivers enough already. The Bengals were looking to get back to the postseason again this season but they are now just 2-6 (2-6 ATS). The Colts are 5-3 overall and 3-0 at home, but they are coming off of a loss to the Eagles and they are a beaten and battered bunch. The Colts will be without Austin Collie, Bob Sanders, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, and Melvin Bullitt, and they will probably be missing Joseph Addai as well. Indy is 5-2-1 ATS and 3-0 ATS at home.

Tennessee (-1) @ Miami
Pick: Titans cover
Comment: The Titans had last week off to try and get healthy and try to get Randy Moss adjusted to the team, but they are still banged up. They are 5-3 overall and 3-1 on the road. Miami lost to the Ravens last week to fall to 4-4 and they are 0-3 at home this season. The Dolphins have now decided to bench Chad Henne in favor of Chad Pennington. This could be a good move for the time being, but it has to be disappointing for the Dolphins, as they were hoping that Henne would be the guy for years to come.

Minnesota (-1) @ Chicago
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: Minnesota somehow escaped against the Cardinals last week, but they have still not won consecutive games yet this season and they are just 3-5 (2-6 ATS). The Vikes are also 0-4 on the road (0-4 ATS) and they have lost 8 straight on the road going back to last season. They may get Sydney Rice back this week, but if he does play it will likely take him some time to get going. Also, the Vikings have lost 8 of their last 9 games at Chicago. Somehow Chicago is 5-3 and on pace for a 10-win season. The Bears lost their last two home games, and then after a bye they only beat the Bills by 3 points in Toronto last Sunday.

Houston (+1) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Texans pull off the upset
Comment: A battle of 4-4 teams from the AFC South who will probably be fighting it out for 3rd place the rest of the season. The Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. They have lost 3 straight and 4 of 5 in Jacksonville. The Jags come into this game off of a bye, having already lost twice at home this season.

Sunday’s Late Games

Kansas City (-1) @ Denver
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: I’m a little surprised at this spread considering that Denver lost their last home game to Oakland by 45 points. The Broncos had a bye last week but they are just 2-6 on the season and 1-3 at home. They have lost their last 4 games (0-4 ATS during that stretch). KC lost a tough one in Oakland last week and they are only 1-3 on the road this season. The Chiefs had lost 8 straight in Denver prior to winning last year’s season finale by 20 points.

St. Louis (+6) @ San Francisco
Pick: Rams pull off the upset
Comment: This is another puzzling spread in my opinion. Both teams are coming off of a bye. The Niners are 2-6 on the season and 1-2 at home. They will again be going with Troy Smith at quarterback this week. The Rams are 4-4 (6-2 ATS) overall but 0-3 on the road. They are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games. The Rams have lost 4 in a row to the Niners and 8 of the last 10 in this series. They have lost 7 of 9 in San Fran.

Seattle (+3) @ Arizona
Pick: Cardinals cover
Comment: A battle of garbage teams. The Seahawks are 4-4 overall, but just 1-3 on the road, and they have lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 in Arizona. Matt Hasselbeck is questionable for this one. The Cards have lost 3 straight, including their last game when they blew a late lead and lost in OT to the Vikings. Back in week 7 the Seahawks beat the Cardinals 22-10 at home. Since then the Cards have lost by 3 at home to Tampa and by 3 on the road to the Vikings in overtime. The Seahawks have lost by 31 in Oakland and by 34 to the Giants at home.

Dallas (+13.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Comment: The Cowboys’ season was already going badly when the Giants came to town in week 7, but by the time the G-Men left the Cowboys’ situation had gone from bad to nightmarish. Tony Romo was knocked out for the season and the Giants pushed Dallas around all night during a game that was not nearly as competitive as the 41-35 score suggested. Things haven’t gone any better for the Cowboys since then. Finally the axe fell on Wade Phillips this week following the embarrassing performance on Sunday night football against the Packers, although he was more put out of his misery than executed. The Boys have lost 5 straight (0-5 ATS) and they are 1-7 on the year (1-7 ATS). The Giants are headed in the opposite direction, having won 5 straight (4-1 ATS). The G-Men are 3-1 at home this season, while the Boys are 1-3 on the road. The Giants have won 5 of the last 6 in this series, included the last 2 at home.

Sunday Night’s Game

New England (+4.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers win but Patriots beat the spread
Comment: This has been a great rivalry over the last 15 years. Once again both teams are among the best in the NFL, each coming into this one at 6-2. The Pats were stunned by the Browns last Sunday and they have now lost kicker Brad Gostkowski. The Steelers are playing on a short week and they are now without tackle Max Starks. New England is 2-2 on the road, while the Steelers are 2-1 at home this season.

Monday Night’s Game

Philadelphia (-3) @ Washington
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: A week stuffed full with divisional games ends with another great rivalry. The Skins were off last week but they have not been out of the news due to the Mike Shanahan/Donovan McNabb controversy. I don’t really know what to make of it, but I do know that the Skins are better off with McNabb than any of the other QB’s on Washington’s roster. He could get some help this week as Clinton Portis may be able to return. It’s a big game for the Redskins, who are now 4-4 overall and 2-2 at home. The Eagles are flying high after their win over the Colts. Philly is 5-3 on the year (just 3-5 ATS) and 3-1 on the road. Back in week 4, the Skins beat the Eagles 17-12 in Philadelphia, although Michael Vick was knocked out early in that one. The Eagles have won 8 of their last 10 in Washington.