The NFL Blog: 2010 Week 12 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (9-6-1); Straight Up: (11-5)

Season: Vs. Spread (68-87-5); Straight Up: (92-68)

Week 11 Review: Finally a solid week. It could have been better, but at this point I’ll take it.

Week 12 Preview: Hard to believe it’s already Thanksgiving. I’ve got a long way to go to get back to respectability as far as my record ATS this season. There’s still time, but this is a huge week for me, as I need to get some momentum going as we head into December.

Thursday’s Early Game

New England (-6.5) @ Detroit
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: The Patriots are 8-2; the Lions are 2-8. And yet, Detroit has only been outscored by 3 points on the season. The Lions are 7-3 ATS and 4-0 ATS at home, though they have lost 2 straight ATS. The Lions have lost 6 in a row on Thanksgiving. However, the Pats are still just 5-8 in their last 13 road games going back to last season.

I was pretty high on the Lions going into last week, as they had been competitive in just about every game so far. But last week they lost 35-19 to the Cowboys. They will again be without Matthew Stafford this week. New England should roll, but while they are perhaps the best team in the NFL right now, they are not dominant.

Thursday’s Late Game

New Orleans (-3.5) @ Dallas
Pick: Saints win but Cowboys beat the spread
Comment: So I guess this game is a little bit more interesting than it looked like it would be a couple of weeks ago. The Boys are 2-0 so far since Wade Phillips got axed. They are still just 1-4 at home (1-4 ATS). The Saints are 3-1 on the road. New Orleans has won 3 straight and 4 of 5 (4-1 ATS). Last year the Saints where 13-0 when the Boys went into the Big Easy and ended the perfect season bid. The Cowboys have won 4 in a row on Thanksgiving. The Saints are banged up but they could get healthier this week, with Reggie Bush, Jeremy Shockey, Darren Sharper, Malcolm Jenkins, and Pierre Thomas all possibilities to play. Felix Jones is a question mark for Dallas at this point.

Thursday Night’s Game

Cincinnati (+9) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets win but Bengals beat the spread
Comment: How fun was that to watch the Bengals melt down at home against the Bills last week? They have now lost 7 straight (1-6 ATS over that stretch). The Bungles are 1-4 on the road. The Jets are just 3-2 at home and they are 1-3 ATS in their last 4. New York’s last 4 wins have come by an average of 4 points, with 2 of the wins coming in OT. The Jets are 3-0 against the Bengals since 2008, winning in week 17 and in the Wild Card round last year.

One issue for the Jets this week could be the health of tackle Damien Woody, who is doubtful at this moment. It will be interesting to see how the Bengals play this week following last week’s disaster. On one hand it wouldn’t be surprising to see them quit. On the other hand, the Jets just don’t seem to put anybody away.

Sunday’s Early Games

Minnesota (+3) @ Washington
Pick: Vikings pull off the upset
Comment: An embarrassing loss to Green Bay for the 7th defeat of the season is followed by the coach getting axed. Well, it’s worked for Dallas so far, maybe it will work for the Vikings. Maybe somebody can break Favre’s collarbone too. The Vikings are 1-4 in their last 5 games (0-5 ATS) and they are 0-5 on the road this season (0-5 ATS). Going back to last season the Vikings have lost 9 straight on the road. Minnesota is just 2-8 ATS on the season. The Skins are 2-3 at home. The secondary is banged up, and Washington could very well be without both Clinton Portis and Ryan Torain again this week.

Pittsburgh (-6) @ Buffalo
Pick: Steelers win but Bills beat the spread
Comment: The Steelers are 4-1 on the road, but they are really banged up on both lines. That’s never a good thing. The Bills are just 1-3 at home, but they have won 2 straight, and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5. Prior to winning their last 2 games, the Bills had lost 3 straight games by 3 points apiece, 2 of them in OT.

Carolina (+11) @ Cleveland
Pick: Browns cover
Comment: The Panthers are lowly. They are 1-9 (2-8 ATS) and 0-4 on the road (1-3 ATS). They have lost 4 straight (0-4 ATS) and they have a total nobody at quarterback. The Browns are 2-3 at home. They have lost their last 2, one of those losses came in OT, and the other was by 4 points. Prior to that the Browns had won 2 in a row. The problem for the Browns this week is that Colt McCoy is doubtful. If he can’t go it will be up to Seneca Wallace. Or perhaps Jake Delhomme will get a chance to play against his former team.

Tennessee (Pick) @ Houston
Pick: Texans cover
Comment: I don’t care about the 30-17 record as a starter. To this point Vince Young has been a total bust. If Kerry Collins isn’t healthy enough to go this week the Titans will be in trouble. They will be without Kenny Britt once again. The Texans are in a freefall thanks to their horrid defense. They have lost 4 straight and 5 of 6 (1-5 ATS over that stretch). The Texans are just 2-3 at home this season. The Titans are also on a slippery slope, having lost their last 3 (0-3 ATS). The Titans have won 8 of their last 10 against the Texans, and they are 6-2 all-time at Houston. The Titans won here last season on a 53 yarder on Monday Night Football.

Jacksonville (+7.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants win but Jags beat the spread
Comment: I don’t know what to make of either of these teams. The Giants have now lost 2 straight (0-2 ATS) and they will be playing this week without Dominique Hixon, Steve Smith, and Hakeem Nicks. The Jags will be without Mike Sims-Walker, as well as Aaron Kampman. But Jax has won 3 straight (3-0 ATS), and while they may be lucky, they have still stayed in games long enough to benefit from those good breaks.

Green Bay (+1.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: Another big test for the Falcons. I was definitely relieved that we got through that trap game last week. If the Falcons win this Sunday they will clinch their 3rd consecutive winning season. That’s a big deal for a franchise that had never had back to back winning seasons prior to the last 2 years.

Atlanta has won 4 straight (3-1 ATS) and they are 5-0 at home this season. The Packers are still really banged up, but they are starting to round into form anyway. They have won 4 straight (4-0 ATS) and they may end up finishing this season the way they did last year: on fire. A concern for the Falcons is the health of big John Abraham. He missed last week with a groin problem and he’s a question mark for this Sunday.

Sunday’s Late Games

Kansas City (-1) @ Seattle
Pick: Chiefs cover
Comment: I want to believe in the Chiefs, and I don’t want to believe in Seattle. However, KC is 1-4 on the road this season, while the Seahawks are 3-1 at home (3-1 ATS). The Chiefs are 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games. The Seahawks have lost 3 of their last 4 games overall (1-3 ATS).

Miami (+2.5) @ Oakland
Pick: Raiders cover
Comment: I know Oakland did not look good last Sunday against the Steelers. But they still looked a hell of a lot better than the Dolphins did against the Bears last Thursday. That was one of the most pathetic offensive performances I’ve ever seen. And their QB situation has not changed.

The Phins will have an extra long week to prepare for this one. Brandon Marshall’s health is obviously a big issue. For Oakland, Nnamdi Asomugha’s health is a concern. Oakland had won 3 straight (and 5 straight ATS) prior to last week. The Raiders are 4-1 at home this season. However, the Dolphins are 4-1 on the road (4-1 ATS).

St. Louis (+4) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos win but Rams beat the spread
Comment: The Broncos were again exposed on Monday night, and they are now 3-7 on the year, having lost 5 of 6 (1-5 ATS). They are just 2-3 at home this season. It will be a short week for the Broncos. The Rams are 1-3 in their last 4, but they had won 4 straight ATS prior to last week. They are 0-4 on the road so far, but 3-1 ATS on the road.

Tampa Bay (+9) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens win but Bucs beat the spread
Comment: I did not see the Bucs having the same record as Baltimore this deep into the season. Tampa has won 4 of their last 5, and they have won 4 straight ATS. They are 4-1 on the road this season (5-0 ATS). The Ravens have won 3 of their last 4, and they are 4-0 at home this season.

Philadelphia (-3.5) @ Chicago
Pick: Eagles win but Bears beat the spread
Comment: It will be interesting to see how Mike Vick plays against Chicago’s defense if it’s cold and windy or cold and rainy in Chi-town. Mike did not do so well at Chicago as a Falcon. The Bears will have also had an extra long week to prepare.

Both teams are 7-3. The Bears are 3-2 at home, while the Eagles are 4-1 on the road. This is the 4th year in a row that these two teams have faced off. The Bears won in 2007 and 2008, the Eagles won last year. Each game has been decided by 4 points or less. The Bears have won 3 straight (2-0-1 ATS). The Eagles have also won 3 in a row (2-1 ATS). Philly’s secondary is banged up, but the skill position players on offense are healthy.

Sunday Night’s Game

San Diego (+3) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts cover
Comment: This is always a great matchup. It just doesn’t stop for these two teams. The Chargers will be playing on a short week and they have no margin for error. The Colts have lost 2 of 3 and they seem to play a big time opponent every week. Both teams are very banged up, and Rivers and Manning will both likely be missing several of their best weapons. The Chargers look to be starting another midseason turnaround, as they have won 3 straight (3-0 ATS), but they are 1-4 on the road this season (1-4 ATS). The Colts are 4-0 at home (3-1 ATS).

This will be the 7th meeting between these two teams since 2004. That season the Colts won at home over the Chargers in week 16, 34-31 in OT. The next year the Chargers went to Indy and ended the Colts’ perfect season in week 15, winning 26-17. In 2007 The Chargers hung on for a 23-21 win at home in week 10. Then in the divisional playoffs the Chargers limped into Indy and stunned the Colts, 28-24. The next season the Colts won the regular season matchup, 23-20 in San Diego in week 12. But they had to go back to San Diego in the Wild Card round and the Chargers stung them again, 23-17 in overtime.

Monday Night’s Game

San Francisco (-1) @ Arizona
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: I’m not sure why the Cards vs. Niners is always on Monday Night Football. Maybe there are specific guidelines that they have to follow, or maybe they just want to have a certain number of truly west coast games each year and this one just fits with what they are trying to do. But this will be the 4th straight season that the Niners and Cards will appear on MNF.

This matchup has been entertaining at times, but mostly due to ineptitude. In 2007, the Niners and Cards opened the season on MNF, and the Niners won 20-17 at home. In 2008, the game was in Arizona and the Cards hung on for a 29-24 win when the Niners fucked the duck at the goal line. That was the famous, “You gotta be kiddin me! I can’t believe they gave it to Michael Robinson! On a dive! On 4th and goal! From the 2 and a half!” Still one of the greatest calls in history. Last season it was in San Fran and the Niners won 24-9.

This season both teams are dreadful. The Cards have lost 5 straight (1-4 ATS). It was starting to look like the Niners might be able to save their season, but they went off the rails again last week, getting shutout at home by Tampa. They are 0-4 on the road (1-3 ATS). Arizona is just 1-3 ATS at home this season. Last season the Niners swept the Cards. One team has swept the season series from the other in each of the last 6 seasons.