Monday, November 29, 2010

The College Football Blog: 2010 Season Résumé Rankings (After Week 13)

Season Résumé Rankings after Week 13

1. Auburn 12-0 (1st)
2. Oregon 11-0 (2nd)
3. TCU 12-0 (3rd)
4. Ohio State 11-1 (5th)
5. Stanford 11-1 (7th)
6. Michigan State 11-1 (9th)
7. Wisconsin 11-1 (10th)
8. Oklahoma 10-2 (NR)
9. Arkansas 10-2 (NR)
10. LSU 10-2 (8th)

Out: Boise State (4th), Oklahoma State (6th).

Explanation: In this week’s addition of my power rankings I wrote that I had come to the realization that the rankings were pointless because it was impossible to completely follow the guidelines at all times. Unfortunately, I reached similar conclusions concerning my season résumé rankings.

The biggest problem is trying to determine the importance of a loss. Is Boise State or TCU going undefeated more impressive than Ohio State or Stanford going 11-1? What about a team from Conference-USA? If a team from the Big East goes 11-1, is that more impressive than an SEC team that goes 10-2?

Another problem comes in trying to determine the value of certain wins. How do you differentiate between wins over middling teams in the Big XII and wins over middling teams in the Big Ten? Trying to compare teams from different conferences is a real challenge. If a Big Ten team destroys the competition in conference, is that more impressive than a Pac-10 team that wins a number of close games in conference?

And then there’s the problem of determining how much emphasis to put on the results of head to head competition. If one team has a bad loss and doesn’t have many big wins, should they be ranked ahead of a team that they beat even if that team has a slew of big wins and has otherwise blown away the competition? How much importance should be placed on where the game was played?

These are just some of the many problems inherent in trying to rank teams based on their body of work throughout the season. It’s almost impossible to do this without contradictions.

Despite the hopelessness of the task, I’m going to continue doing these rankings.

I probably had more trouble with this week’s rankings than any previous edition. Only the top 3 spots remained the same. Auburn beat Alabama to go to 12-0 and strengthen their hold on the top spot. Oregon whipped Arizona to get to 11-0 and strengthen their hold on the #2 ranking. TCU crushed New Mexico as expected to finish the season 12-0. The Horned Frogs remained 3rd in the rankings, well back of the top 2 teams.

The number of undefeated teams was cut by 1 this week from 4 to 3, as Boise State fell to Nevada, ending their 35 game regular season win streak. For the Broncos, the difference between 0 losses and 1 loss is dramatic, as they do not have many big wins and have played a light schedule. The Broncos fell from 4th all the way out of the top 10 this week, even though they are one of only 9 teams in the country with fewer than 2 defeats.

I had to laugh at myself when I went back and read last week’s edition and realized that I had left Nevada out when I stated that only 10 teams remained with less than 2 losses. Despite the huge win over Boise State, Nevada still hasn’t played a tough enough schedule to rank them ahead of some of the 2-loss teams.

The other team to fall out of the rankings this week was Oklahoma State, who fell out of the top 10 from 6th following their loss at home to Oklahoma. That gave the Cowboys 2 losses, both of which have come at home. They don’t have as many good wins as some of the other 2-loss teams, and they have to be ranked behind the Sooners, as Oklahoma has an identical record and beat the Cowboys on their home field.

The only other team to drop in the rankings this week was LSU. The Tigers lost their 2nd game of the year on Saturday night, falling to Arkansas, 31-23. However, LSU did not fall out of the rankings, as they are still one of the top 2-loss teams. The Tigers fell 2 spots in the rankings this week from 8th to 10th.

The losses by Oklahoma State, Boise State, and LSU meant some of the teams behind them would move up. Ohio State beat Michigan on Saturday to finish 11-1 and they moved up a spot in my rankings from 5th to 4th. Stanford finished 11-1 as well, ending the regular season with a total crushing of Oregon State. Stanford moved up 2 spots in my rankings from 7th to 5th.

Michigan State and Wisconsin each won on Saturday to finish 11-1 and they both moved up 3 spots in my rankings. Michigan State won at Penn State, while the Badgers blew away Northwestern. The Spartans moved up 3 spots from 9th to 6th, while Wisconsin climbed 3 spots from 10th to 7th.

There were two new teams in the top 10 this week. Oklahoma entered these rankings at #8 following their win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Arkansas beat LSU on Saturday night and jumped into these rankings at #9.

No comments: