The College Football Blog: 2010 Week 14 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 20 Games (Straight up: 12-8; Vs. Spread: 8-12)

Overall (Straight up: 34-20; Vs. Spread: 24-30; Moneyline Upsets: 1-4)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight up: 98-42; Vs. Spread: 65-69-6)

Overall (Straight up: 496-167; Vs. Spread: 327-326-10; Moneyline Upsets: 16-28)

Week 13 Review: An awful week for me; perhaps the worst of the entire season. I may have succeeded in avoiding catastrophe the last few weeks, but the succession of poor weeks I’ve had has produced the same result. My overall record against the spread is now essentially at .500, which means I could have flipped a coin and expected to get about the same result. Thanks to my poor record against the spread in the biggest games last week, I’m now back under .500 ATS in the biggest games for the year. And my attempt to make a big push in the moneyline upset category backfired, as I’m now hopelessly well under .500 in that regard. Perhaps the most disturbing aspect of last week was the fact that I missed on 20 games straight up. That’s awful.

Week 14 Preview: This is basically the final week of the regular season, as only Army and Navy play in week 15. And this is really a mini-week, as there are just 19 games on the slate. However, it’s still a huge week because it is championship week for the MAC, Conference-USA, the ACC, the Big XII, and the SEC. It’s also another “rivalry week.” Rivalry week seems to come in four segments nowadays, beginning two weeks ago and ending the week after this. Plus, the Big East championship will be determined this week, and several teams are looking to get bowl eligible, finish with a winning record, or reach other milestones. Even the WAC is technically still up for grabs.

One other observation I have about this week is that I don’t recall this many teams scheduling 13 regular season games before. The teams playing in conference championship games are always playing an extra game, but this year Nevada, San Jose State, Idaho, UNLV, Hawaii, and USC all scheduled an extra 13th game. I could be wrong about this. Maybe there were just as many teams doing this last season or the year before and I just didn’t notice. Either way, the argument made by college presidents that a playoff would make the season too long and include too many games looks utterly ridiculous at this point. I mean, it was always a ludicrous argument, but when the majority of teams are playing 13 games or more (bowls included) I think it’s time to make using that argument a crime punishable by death.

I had some trouble deciding how many of this week’s games to designate as “big games” because there are definitely more than 10. It seemed a bit daft to designate all 19 games as big games just because they happened to be scheduled on this unusual week. Also, I wasn’t sure how I could sell the Middle Tennessee State-Florida International matchup as a big game. All this being said, I will admit that if Navy and Army were playing this week I probably would have gone with the biggest 20 games, simply because it’s a nice round number. In the end, I decided to go with the biggest 15 games. This is a huge week for me, as I’m running out of time to make this a successful season. After this week (and the Army-Navy game next week) only the bowls will be left, and those games are never easy to pick.

Thursday

Game 1: Arizona State (+6) @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona State beats the spread
Comment: They call this one “The Duel in the Desert.” That’s okay, but it kind of has that “Lone Star Showdown” feel to it. In fact, I’m pretty sure that at least one of the NFL Films Super Bowl highlight videos is called “The Duel in the Desert.” I mean, what if you just called it “The Feud.” See, that took me like 15 seconds to come up with, and it’s a thousand times better than “The Duel in the Desert.” At least they play for a trophy with a cool name: “The Territorial Cup.” Some claim that it is the oldest traveling trophy in college football, which seems hard to believe.

If there is a traditional favorite in this series I guess it would be the Wildcats, as Arizona was the major university in the state during the first half of the 20th century, while ASU was a “normal school” for prospective teachers for many years. It wasn’t until 1958 that the school in Tempe was renamed Arizona State University. Today ASU is a much bigger school, spread out across several campuses. Arizona also holds the lead in the all-time series 46-36-1. However, most of that damage was done prior to 1950. The Wildcats were 20-2 against the Sun Devils (called “the Normals” during those years) through 1948. Since then Arizona State has had the edge, going 34-26-1. Arizona has won the last 2 in the series for the first time since 1997-1998.

The Sun Devils are 5-6 but they will not be bowl eligible even if they win on Thursday because 2 of their wins have come against FCS opponents. They will, however, be trying to avoid finishing with a losing record for a 3rd straight season for the first time since they had losing records in 4 straight years from 1935-1938. Arizona, on the other hand, will be looking to win at least 8 games in 3 straight seasons for the first time since 1973-1975.

Strangely, ASU is 7-2-2 ATS on the season, but they are just 1-4 on the road (3-1-1 ATS on the road). Arizona is 4-2 at home (3-3 ATS) but they have lost their last 3 games. Once again the Cats will have to go with Nick Foles at QB this week, who has thrown a pick in 7 of the 8 games he has started and finished this season.

Friday

Game 2: Northern Illinois (-15) vs. Miami (Ohio) (Detroit)
Pick: Northern Illinois covers
Comment: This is the 14th MAC Championship Game and the 7th straight played in Detroit (in the first 7 years the game was played at the campus of one of the division winners). The history of this conference title game is somewhat unique, because the first half of that history was dominated by a team that is no longer a member of the league. Marshall went to the first 6 MAC Championship Games and won 5 of them. The Herd then moved on to Conference-USA and they’ve never been the same since. To some extent, the MAC has never really gotten over Marshall’s exit either. The East division is 8-5 in the title game, but they were 6-1 through the game’s first 7 years, and have gone just 2-4 since. And again, 5 of those 6 wins came from Marshall, who is no longer in the conference.

This one lost a lot of juice (it ever had any) when Temple’s running backs got hurt late in the year again and the Owls stumbled down the stretch. Then Ohio gagged against Kent State, and when the dust settled the East division had a stunning outright winner: the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (yes, along with having an annoyingly awkward school name, Miami of Ohio has a nickname that is every bit as awkward looking: RedHawks, one word, with a capital letter in the middle of it). Coming off of 2-10 and 1-11 seasons (going 1-7 in the MAC in each year), the RedHawks were expected to be stronger this year, but not to the extent that they would be bowl eligible. An East division title was out of the question, but the RedHawks reversed their conference record this season, going 7-1 in the MAC to best favorites Temple, Ohio, and Kent State. Miami (Ohio) snapped a skid of 4 straight losing seasons and will be going to a bowl game for the first time since 2004. They have won their last 4 games (3-1 ATS) to finish the season 8-4 (7-5 ATS), despite being outscored by opponents on the year (23.6 to 20.1 average score).

The other half of this year’s MAC title game matchup is exactly the opposite of Miami of Ohio. With Dan LeFevour gone from Central Michigan, Northern Illinois was the clear favorite to win the West this season, and the Huskies delivered, steamrolling through conference play with an 8-0 record. They went 10-2 (9-2-1 ATS) and outscored opponents by an average score of 39.2 to 18.5. NIU has won 9 straight and they are 9-0-1 ATS in their last 10. Northern Illinois was competitive out of the conference, beating Minnesota by 11 and losing by just 6 at Illinois. They dominated some of the best competition within the conference, beating Temple by 14 and rolling Toledo by 35.

The RedHawks, on the other hand, were not able to hang outside the conference, losing 34-12 against Florida, 51-13 against Missouri, and 45-3 against a Cincinnati team which has won only 4 games to this point. The RedHawks won the East with a 7-1 conference record, but they compiled that record in about as unimpressive a fashion as possible. They got whipped by Ohio, 34-13. They eked out wins over miserable Akron (19-14), Bowling Green (24-21), Eastern Michigan (28-21), Central Michigan (27-20), and Buffalo (21-9), teams with a combined record of 10-50. Their most impressive win—a 23-3 victory over Temple—came in the last week of the season when the Owls were without both of their talented running backs.

Northern Illinois has been one of the more successful MAC teams of the last decade or so, putting up 10 win seasons and knocking off teams from the Big Ten. Strangely, the Huskies have yet to win the MAC Championship Game. They have made only one appearance, losing to Akron in 2005, 31-30. The RedHawks will be playing in the title game for the 4th time, having gone 1-2 in 3 previous MAC Championship Games. In 2003 the RedHawks won the conference title, beating Bowling Green 49-27. They got back to the title game the next season but lost to Toledo, 35-27. In 2007 they won the East again but got hammered by Central Michigan, 35-10.

These two teams have met just 14 times before, with each side winning 7 times. However, since 2002 NIU has won all 5 meetings with the RedHawks. The Huskies will be looking to win 11 games for the first time in their history. Miami (Ohio) will be looking to win 9 games for the first time since they went 13-1 and won the conference in 2003. The RedHawks will be playing the game without the QB who led them for most of the season. Zac Dysert has some sort of severe stomach ailment and won’t be able to play again until perhaps their bowl game. However, Austin Boucher played the last 2 games, and so far so good.

Game 3: Illinois (-6) @ Fresno State
Pick: Fresno State beats the spread
Comment: The first ever meeting between these two in last year’s season finale was a thriller and one of the more entertaining games of the year. There were 8 lead changes, and Fresno State erased a double digit lead at Illinois, scoring a TD with 2 seconds left to get within a point. With nothing to lose, Pat Hill gambled and went for 2, and the pass was tipped and caught in the end zone by a Bulldog offensive lineman for the conversion to give Fresno State a 53-52 win.

This year the game will be played at Fresno State, where the Bulldogs will be looking to win 8 games in consecutive seasons for the first time since they did it 5 years straight from 2001-2005. Illinois will be coming off of a bye and trying to finish the regular season with a winning record for the first time since 2007. It would also be their first 7 win season since 2007. The Illini surprised some people this season and they are 8-3 ATS. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Fresno State is 4-2 at home (2-3-1 ATS), while this will be just the 4th true road game of the year for Illinois (they are 1-2 on the road so far).

Saturday

Game 4: Rutgers (+20.5) @ West Virginia
Pick: West Virginia covers
Comment: There’s no denying that the Mountaineers are far from the program they were a few years ago, before Rich Rodriguez ditched them like a starlet dumping her high school sweetheart in favor of a producer who showed interest. Yet somehow West Virginia may very well find themselves playing in another BCS game this season. The Mountaineers are 8-3 (7-4 ATS) and 5-1 at home (4-2 ATS). They have won 3 straight (3-0 ATS), including last week’s beat down of Pitt in the Backyard Brawl. They have now won at least 8 games in 9 straight seasons and will go to a 9th straight bowl game. This week they will be looking to win at least 9 games for a 6th straight year.

More importantly, West Virginia needs to win this Saturday to stay alive in the Big East title race. If they lose they are out. If they win and UConn loses at South Florida (which is highly possible), the Mountaineers will win the Big East and go to a BCS bowl. If Connecticut wins it doesn’t matter what WV does, the Huskies will be the champs.

It shouldn’t be too hard for the Mountaineers to take care of business on their end. Rutgers comes into the game having lost 5 straight and they are just 1-3 on the road this season. The Knights are 2-9 ATS on the season and 1-5 ATS in their last 6. The Scarlet Knights were going to struggle this season no matter what, but they should have at least been able to get bowl eligible, with a schedule that included home games against Norfolk State, Tulane, Syracuse, Louisville, and Army, plus a road game against FIU. They were 4-2 after 6 games, but the injury to teammate Eric LeGrand against Army seemed to pull Rutgers down rather than galvanize the team. They haven’t won since, and last week at home against Louisville it looked like they might have quit, as they fell 40-13 to the Cardinals. They are just 1-5 in Big East play. The Scarlet Knights had their winning season streak snapped at 5 this season, and they’ll have to win on Saturday to avoid losing 8 games in a season for the first time since 2002.

West Virginia has owned Rutgers. They hold a 31-4-2 lead in the all-time series and they have defeated the Scarlet Knights 15 straight times (with only 5 of those 15 games being decided by 7 points or less). The Mountaineers are 15-0 against the Knights in Morgantown. Things have been a bit more competitive lately. In 2006, the Knights went on the road and forced the Mountaineers into 3 OT before falling 41-39. In 2008, West Virginia hung on for a 24-17 win in Morgantown. Last year at Rutgers the Mountaineers eked out a 24-21 win.

Game 5: Pittsburgh (+2) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Pittsburgh pulls off the upset
Comment: This is a strange spread. Pitt did look awful at home against WV last week, but the Bearcats are just 4-7 this season (4-7 ATS), 3-3 at home, and 1-4 in their last 5 (1-4 ATS). Everyone expected the Bearcats to take a step back in Butch Jones’ first season, but they have slipped farther than most people thought they would. The Panthers have been a disappointment again this season, as they are just 6-5 (2-3 on the road). Amazingly, the Panthers are still alive for the Big East championship and a BCS bowl. If Pitt wins and both UConn and West Virginia lose, the Panthers would be conference champs. It’s a major long shot, but just the fact that they still have a chance is pretty ridiculous.

Pitt won the first 7 in this series, but they have lost to the Bearcats in each of the last two seasons. Last year the two teams played a de facto Big East championship game, and the Panthers had a 31-10 lead at home, but Cinci stormed back to win 45-44 and go to the Sugar Bowl. The last 3 years, this game has been decided by 7 points or less. Since 2000, Pitt is 3-2 against the Bearcats and 1-1 in Cincinnati.

Even if they don’t end up winning the conference, with a win the Panthers can clinch a 3rd straight winning record for the first time since doing it 4 straight years from 2000-2004. Pitt will again be without the services of their stud defensive end Greg Romeus, who is done for the year with an injury. For the Bearcats, another loss this week will give them an 8-loss season for the first time since 1999.

Game 6: SMU (+9.5) @ Central Florida
Pick: Central Florida covers
Comment: This is the 6th Conference-USA Championship Game. As always, the game will be played at the home site of the team with the better record. The West won the first two C-USA title games, but the East has won the last 3. This year the game will be played in Orlando at the home of the Knights. Central Florida has been in the title game twice before, and they hosted both of those games as well. In 2005, the Knights lost at home to Tulsa, 44-27. In 2007, the Knights got revenge, beating Tulsa 44-25 to win their first conference championship. This is the first appearance for SMU. Central Florida is 2-0 all-time against the Mustangs, having won at SMU in 2007 (49-20) and beating them at home in 2008 (31-17).

SMU is just 7-5 this season (6-5-1 ATS) overall but 6-2 in the conference. They have won 3 of their last 4 (3-1 ATS) and they are 3-3 on the road this season. The Mustangs won the West division thanks to a 3-point home win over Tulsa (also 6-2) back in week 6. Also, Tulsa’s loss to East Carolina on a Hail Mary pass in week 1 ended up having a major impact on the season. The Golden Hurricane finished the season 9-3 and riding a 6 game win streak, but it was SMU that held the tie-breaker and thus gets a shot at the conference title.

Central Florida was the favorite to win the East division and they did not disappoint, going 7-1 in conference play, 9-3 overall (9-3 ATS). They made things interesting by losing at home to Southern Miss, but in the end they finished 2 games ahead of both the Golden Eagles and East Carolina. The Knights won 7 of their final 8 games. They are 4-2 at home (4-2 ATS) and they outscored opponents by an average score of 35.2 to 18.9 this season. By comparison, SMU’s average score was 28.2 to 27.2.

June Jones has done a magnificent job at SMU. They have now had back to back winning regular seasons for the first time since they put together 7 straight winning years from 1980-1986 (just before receiving the death penalty). A win this week would give them at least 8 wins in back to back years for the first time since they did it 5 years in a row from 1980-1984. They will be going to a bowl game for a second straight season; the first time they’ve done that since going 3 years in a row from 1982-1984.

Game 7: Utah State (+39.5) @ Boise State
Pick: Boise State covers
Comment: I know, maybe not that big of a game, but in a way it is. For one thing, it’s going to be interesting to see how the Broncos react to last week’s devastating loss at Nevada. I suspect that the possibility of a major letdown is the reason that the spread is only 39.5. Utah State is awful, and the Broncos are an unstoppable force at home. If Boise State had won last week I bet this spread would be 50.

The heartbreaking overtime loss in Nevada snapped Boise State’s 24 game win streak that dated back to the first game of last season. It also snapped their 35 game regular season win streak that dated back to the first game of the 2008 season. They have won 31 straight games on the blue turf. They have won 61 straight regular season home games.

Boise State is now 10-1 (8-3 ATS) and 5-0 at home (3-2 ATS). They are 6-1 in the WAC and they need a win to grab a share of the conference title. If the Broncos win and Nevada somehow losses to Louisiana Tech, Boise State would finish tied with Hawaii for the WAC title, but since they beat the Warriors this season they would hold the tie breaker. If Boise State and Nevada both win they will finish in a 3-way tie with Hawaii, with each team having gone 1-1 against the other two.

The Broncos are 12-4 all-time against Utah State (6-2 at home), but they have beaten the Aggies 9 straight times (5 at home) since 1998. The teams have met 5 times as WAC foes, and the Broncos have won all 5 games, scoring at least 45 points each time, outgaining the Aggies by an average of 254 yards per game over the last 4 meetings. In the last 8 meetings between these two, the Broncos have outgained the Aggies by an average of 185 yards.

Utah State has quietly been one of the worst programs in all of college football over the last decade. They have now finished with a losing record in 12 consecutive years. A loss on Saturday would give them at least 8 losses for an 8th straight year. If they were to pull off one of the most stunning upsets in college football history it would give them 5 wins in a season for the first time since 2000. They are 4-7 (4-7 ATS) and 1-4 on the road (3-2 ATS). The Aggies are 2-5 in the conference.

Game 8: Nevada (-12) @ Louisiana Tech
Pick: Nevada covers
Comment: It will also be interesting to see how the Wolf Pack respond to the biggest win in their program’s history. They need a win to claim a share of the WAC title. If Boise State also wins they will finish in a 3-way tie with Hawaii. If the Broncos lose and Nevada wins, the Wolf Pack would finish tied with Hawaii, but the Warriors would have the tie-breaker, having defeated Nevada earlier this season. As for Louisiana Tech, the Bulldogs need a win to get bowl eligible and avoid a second straight losing season.

Nevada is now 11-1 (6-6 ATS) and 4-1 on the road (2-3 ATS). They have won their last 5 (3-2 ATS). LT is 5-6 (5-6 ATS) and just 2-3 at home (3-2 ATS), but the Bulldogs have won their last 2 games. Nevada is just 6-4 all-time against Louisiana Tech, but they have won the last 5 in this series, outgaining the Bulldogs in each game, by an average of 206 yards per game.

Game 9: Oregon (-16) @ Oregon State
Pick: Oregon covers
Comment: This one is called “The Civil War.” That’s definitely one of the best rivalry names of all-time. This will be the 114th edition. If you were going to label one of the teams as the traditional favorite it would probably be Oregon. The Ducks hold the edge in the all-time series, 57-46-10. However, Oregon has only really taken control of the rivalry over the last 30 years or so. They are 25-9-1 against OSU since 1975. Prior to that the Beavers were 37-32-9 against Oregon. The Ducks have won the last 2, but the teams have split the last 12 in the series going back to 1998. Neither side has won 3 straight since Oregon won 4 in a row from 1994-1997. In each of the last 2 years Oregon State needed to beat the Ducks in order to go to the Rose Bowl, but they haven’t been able to do it. In 2008, the Ducks snapped a 5 game losing skid in Corvallis, getting 5 touchdowns of at least 40 yards on their way to a 65-38 win. Things have been very close in 3 of the last 4 years. In 2006, Oregon State won at home, 30-28. In 2007, the Beavers went to Eugene and knocked off the Ducks, 38-31 in double overtime. Last year the Ducks hung on for a 37-33 win at home.

This season there is more than ever at stake. With a win, the Ducks will lock up a spot in the National Championship Game. They have never won 12 games in a season. They have not finished the season undefeated since 1916 when they went 7-0-1. Their last undefeated and untied season was in 1895 when they went 4-0. Aside from crushing the dreams of their arch rivals, the Beavers will be trying to get bowl eligible and avoid their first losing season since 2005.

The Ducks are 11-0 (6-4-1 ATS) and 5-0 on the road (2-3 ATS), but they are just 0-2-1 ATS in their last 3. They have outscored opponents by an average score of 50.5 to 18.3 this season. The Beavers are just 5-6 (5-6 ATS) but they are 4-1 at home (2-2-1 ATS). Still, Oregon State’s recent play has not given us any reason to think they can compete with the Ducks. They lost James Rogers early in the year and that was a tremendous blow. Lately the wheels have started to fall off. They have lost 3 of their last 4 (1-3 ATS), including a humiliating 31-14 loss to Wazu at home, as well as a 38-0 spanking at the hands of Stanford. True, they did manage to beat USC again, this time winning 36-7, but the performances before and after that game (the loss to Wazu and the loss to Stanford) were probably more telling. The Beavers have a negative scoring differential this season (outscored 25.9 to 24.8 on average).

Game 10: Auburn (-5) vs. South Carolina (Atlanta)
Pick: Auburn covers
Comment: The 19th edition of the original conference championship game. Both teams have been ranked in the AP top 25 in every single SEC Championship Game. This will also be the 19th time in 19 years that at least 1 of the 2 teams is ranked in the top 10. This will be the 17th time in 19 years that at least 1 of the teams is in the top 5. This is the 12th time in 19 years that at least 1 of the teams is ranked in the top 3. And this is the 7th time in 19 years that at least 1 of the teams is ranked either #1 or #2. The winners of the last 4 SEC Championship Games have gone on to win the BCS National Championship. The East is 11-7 against the West.

Auburn will be making their 4th appearance in the SEC title game. In 1997, the Tigers lost 30-29 to Tennessee. In 2000, Auburn lost to Florida, 28-6. In 2004, Auburn beat Tennessee, 38-28, to win the conference and finish the season undefeated. If the Tigers do win on Saturday is will be the 2nd time since 2004 that they reach the 13-0 mark.

This is South Carolina’s first ever appearance in the conference title game. A win for the Gamecocks would mean their first SEC Championship and their first trip to a BCS bowl. It would also give South Carolina 10 wins for the first time since 1984 and just the second time in the program’s history.

While South Carolina is new to the SEC Championship Game, Steve Spurrier is not. In fact, when Spurrier retires, his record in the SEC Championship Game will be included in the first paragraph of the press report. It will be in the first paragraph of his obituary. As coach of the Florida Gators, Spurrier took his teams to 7 SEC title games, winning 5 of them. In his final SEC Championship Game as the head ball coach at Florida (2000), Spurrier’s Gators defeated Auburn, 28-6.

While Spurrier’s record in the SEC title game is impressive, Auburn’s record against South Carolina is also noteworthy. The Tigers are 7-1-1 all-time against the Cocks. Auburn is 5-0 against South Carolina since 1996 (last meeting before 1996 was in 1933). This year’s SEC Championship matchup is a bit of a rarity, as it will be a rematch from the regular season. The two teams met in week 4 at Auburn, with the Tigers winning a very competitive game, 35-27.

Auburn is 12-0 (8-4 ATS) and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6. South Carolina is 9-3 (7-5 ATS) and the Cocks have won their last 3 (3-0 ATS). Both teams are coming off of huge wins over instate rivals. It will be interesting to see if the Tigers can get back up for this game, after their dramatic come from behind win at Alabama last Friday. It will also be interesting to see how this South Carolina team handles the pressure of the conference title game and the challenge of trying to knock off the #1 team in the BCS.

Game 11: Washington (-7) @ Washington State
Pick: Washington State beats the spread
Comment: They call this one the Apple Cup. I usually don’t like the names that are based off some aspect of the local area, but for some reason this name really seems to fit the rivalry. This will be the 103rd meeting. Washington is clearly the traditional favorite. The Huskies are 65-31-6 all-time against the Cougars. Last year Washington shutout the Cougs, 30-0, but Wazu has won 4 of the last 6, including 2 of the last 3 in Pullman.

Wazu has been more competitive than expected this season. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games. In their last game, the Cougars got over a major hump, snapping a 16 game losing skid in conference play with a convincing win over Oregon State on the road. That should give them plenty of confidence heading into the Apple Cup. The problem is that by the time this game starts, it will have been 21 days since the Cougars last played. The Huskies, on the other hand, will come into this game with plenty of momentum, having won 2 straight, including a gutsy road win over Cal last week when they scored from a yard out on the final play of the game to win 16-13.

The Huskies are 5-6 and 2-3 on the road. They are 4-4 in Pac-10 play. They need a win to avoid a 7th straight losing season and get bowl eligible for the first time since they were 6-6 in 2003. With a win they would go to their first bowl since 2002.

Wazu is 2-9 overall but 7-4 ATS. They are just 1-4 at home, but 3-2 ATS at home. They are 1-7 in Pac-10 play. The Cougars need a win to avoid losing at least 10 games for a 3rd straight year. A victory would give Washington State 3 wins in a season for the first time since 2007.

Game 12: Florida State (+4) vs. Virginia Tech (Charlotte)
Pick: Virginia Tech covers
Comment: This is the 6th ACC Championship Game and a rematch of the first one in 2005. This is Florida State’s first appearance since then. That year the Seminoles beat Virginia Tech 27-22 to win the conference title. VT will be making a 4th appearance in 6 years. In 2007 they defeated Boston College 30-16 to win the title. They went back a year later and beat BC again, this time winning 30-12, to win their second straight title. The Atlantic division won the first 2 ACC title games, but the Coastal has won the last 3.

These two teams have actually met 34 times. FSU has a firm grasp on the all-time series with a 22-11-1 record against the Hokies, and the Noles have won 13 of the last 14 meetings between the two teams since 1976. They are 4-1 against VT since 2000. That was the year that the two teams met in the BCS National Championship Game, with FSU defeating Michael Vick and the Hokies, 46-29. In 2002, the teams squared off in the Gator Bowl, with the Noles winning 30-17. In 2005 Florida State beat VT 27-22 in the ACC Championship Game. In 2007, the Hokies ended the losing streak against FSU at 12, beating the Noles 41-20 in Blacksburg. But in 2008, FSU started another streak, winning 30-20 over the Hokies at home.

Virginia Tech’s season couldn’t have gotten off to a worse start, as they lost a heartbreaker to Boise State in the opener, and then got shocked by James Madison in week 2. They have won 10 straight since then, going 9-1 ATS. FSU won their last 3 to finish the year 9-3 (7-5 ATS). If the Noles win this weekend they will get to the 10 win mark for the first time since 2003. While I don’t think you can say that the Noles are “back,” because that would imply that they are back to being what they were from 1985-2000, and that simply isn’t the case. However, Jimbo Fisher is on the verge of having one of the all-time great first seasons as a head coach. If the Noles win on Saturday they will win the conference title and go to a BCS bowl game. They will have 10 wins, and they will have defeated Miami, Florida, Clemson, and Virginia Tech along the way. That’s a lot to accomplish in your first season replacing a legend.

I’m annoyed that the ACC Championship Game ended up with this great of a matchup. I really thought NC State was going to get to this game. If they somehow choked I was hoping that Maryland would make it. Then I would be rooting for NC State or Maryland to win the conference title game so that they would earn a BCS bid and all the bowl people would be pissed off. I was rooting for Syracuse to win the Big East for the same reason.

Game 13: Nebraska (+4) vs. Oklahoma (Arlington)
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: The Big XII was the first conference to follow the SEC’s lead and create 2 divisions and a conference title game. But this game has produced a surprising result much more often than the SEC title game. Regrettably, this will be the 15th and final Big XII Championship Game.


Fittingly, the final edition will feature one of the all-time great rivalries. Oklahoma vs. Nebraska. That’s college football. Unfortunately, this will likely be the last game between these two for a long time. Thankfully we will get to see it one more time, on a big stage, with much at stake for both teams.

You don’t think of either of these teams as the traditional favorite. Oklahoma leads the all-time series, 44-38-3, however, since 1943 the Sooners are 41-22 against Big Red. The Sooners have won 5 of the last 7 meetings, but last year the Cornhuskers won 10-3 at home to snap a 4 game losing streak against Oklahoma.

This will be the 12th time in 15 years that both teams in the title game are ranked in the AP top 25. It’s the 9th time that both teams are ranked in the top 15. It’s the 15th straight year that at least one of the teams in the Big XII Championship Game is ranked in the top 10. The South division has won 10 of the 14 games, including the last 6.

Both of these teams have plenty of experience in the conference title game. Nebraska will be making their 6th appearance, while the Sooners will be here for an 8th time. Nebraska is 2-3 in the game, while Oklahoma has gone 6-1. Nebraska made it to the first ever Big XII title game in 1996, but they were stunned by underdog Texas, 37-27. The Cornhuskers went back the next season and demolished A&M, 54-15. In 1999, Nebraska got revenge on Texas, winning 22-6 for their 2nd conference title in 3 years. They did not get back to the title game until 2006, when they squared off with old rival Oklahoma. The Sooners won 21-7. Then last year Nebraska nearly pulled off a shocking win over Texas, falling 13-12 thanks to the clock being stopped early when Colt McCoy launched the ball out of bounds with just seconds remaining.

Oklahoma beat Kansas State in the 2000 title game, 27-24. In 2002, the Sooners beat Colorado, 29-7. In 2003, KSU pulled off one of the stunners of the decade, hammering Oklahoma 35-7. The Sooners came back the next year and took out some frustration on the Buffs, winning 42-3. In 2006 the Sooners beat the Cornhuskers 21-7. They beat Mizzu 38-17 the next year. Then in 2008 the Sooners whipped Missouri 62-21 for their 3rd consecutive conference title.

The Cornhuskers are 10-2 (5-6-1 ATS), but they are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4, and the quarterback situation is a bit of a mess. Oklahoma is 10-2 (7-5 ATS) and the Sooners have won 3 straight (3-0 ATS).

Game 14: Connecticut (+1.5) @ South Florida
Pick: Connecticut pulls off the upset
Comment: It’s really simple for UConn. If they beat South Florida they are the Big East champs and they will go to a BCS bowl. If they lose they will need help. These two teams have played 7 times (all since 2000), with the Bulls holding a 4-3 lead. South Florida is 3-0 against the Huskies at home. Last year’s game was a thriller, with 7 lead changes, including 4 in the 4th quarter alone. The Huskies ended up winning 29-27 at home. The last 3 meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.

Both teams are 7-4 overall. The Huskies are 7-4 ATS as well, but they are just 1-4 on the road (1-4 ATS), while the Bulls are 4-2 at home (2-4 ATS). The Huskies have won 4 straight (4-0 ATS), while the Bulls have won 4 of 5 (3-2 ATS).

A win for the Huskies in this game will give them at least 8 wins for a 4th straight season. Similarly, a win for the Bulls will give them at least 8 wins for a 5th straight season.

South Florida is 3-3 in the conference, while Connecticut is 4-2. The possibility exists for a 5-way tie in the Big East between West Virginia, Pitt, South Florida, Syracuse, and Connecticut, with each team finishing at 4-3. But honestly, I don’t really even want to think about that, or how it would be settled.

Game 15: USC (-7) @ UCLA
Pick: USC covers
Comment: No title has ever really stuck to this rivalry, even though there is the obvious “Battle for Los Angeles” title. I think that’s why it hasn’t stuck: it’s too obvious. I think a better name would be a word or a phrase, similar to “Bedlam” or “Clean Old Fashioned Hate.” I like “Only Room for One,” meaning “this town ain't big enough for the both of us.” It’s ironic because Los Angeles is one of the biggest cities in the country, and yet it’s true because the two teams have rarely existed as equals over any substantial length of time. I also like “Turf War,” because the two teams used to share the Coliseum and because of the tradition of both teams wearing home jerseys.

Anyway, USC is the traditional favorite in this rivalry. They are 44-28-7 all-time against the Bruins. The Trojans have won 10 of 11 in the series, including 4 of the last 5 at UCLA. USC has held UCLA to an average of 11 points per game over the last 5 meetings.

A lot of people thought USC would be one of the best teams in the country this season in spite of the departure of Pete Carroll and the sanctions handed down by the NCAA. But USC is 7-5 (5-7 ATS) and they are more ordinary than they have been since 2000. They are 4-2 on the road (4-2 ATS) but they’ve lost their last 2 games, and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Troy needs a win to finish with at least 8 wins for a 9th straight year. UCLA is just 4-7 (3-8 ATS) and 3-2 at home (2-3 ATS). The Bruins have lost 5 of their last 6, and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.

There has been talk that Mitch Mustain will get the start at QB this week, but I have a feeling that Matt Barkley will play. This is a big game for the head coaches of both teams. If the Trojans lose they will finish 7-6, but I think the fact that they lost to Notre Dame and UCLA would be much worse than the record. Rick Neuheisel needs a big win in a bad way. He came in with a lot of big talk but he has yet to produce. A win over the cross-town rivals would help.

Other Games

Saturday

Middle Tennessee State (+6.5) @ Florida International (Florida International covers)

Troy (-4.5) @ Florida Atlantic (Troy covers)

San Jose State (+14) @ Idaho (San Jose State beats the spread)

UNLV (+34.5) @ Hawaii (Hawaii covers)