The Falcons Blog: Thoughts on the Season to this Point

9 games into the season, the Falcons are 7-2, tied for the best record in football. National recognition of the team was elevated last week due to the Falcons win over Baltimore in the first Thursday night game of the year. This at least made Atlanta a topic of conversation around the country. It’s not that the Falcons have been “disrespected.” They are just not a team that gets a ton of coverage in the national media. The reasons for this are obvious: a lack of history, lack of flash/controversy, lack of star players, etc. Also, Atlanta is not a team with a rabid fan base or widespread following like the New York teams, Dallas, the Redskins, or the Steelers. The relatively small amount of coverage has more to do with interest and profile than with a lack of respect for the team.

The Falcons have sort of been talked about as an “honorable mention” team the last couple of years; not one of the favorites but a team that could be a contender. The situation hasn’t changed that much. Despite the great record, most people would not call the Falcons an elite team. Currently, much is being made of Atlanta’s great home record vs. a so-so road record over the last few years. The Falcons are a dome team, thus their ability to win on the road will automatically be brought into question. The old pass defense bugaboo is another negative that critics will often cite.

The good news is that none of this matters. If anything the lack of attention is a good thing. It fits this team well, as there are no trouble makers or locker room cancers. There are plenty of good players, but they are team guys who work hard and seem to have a genuine respect for their coaches. And the hesitation by football “experts” and media members is not unjustified. The Falcons haven’t proven themselves in the playoffs yet and they don’t have a history. Also, they don’t exactly dominate opponents. But again, none of this matters. What is important is that the Falcons have put themselves in a position to do great things this season. If they stay healthy, they will get the chance to prove themselves to everyone.

A New Age of the Franchise

The heading of this section is not very good, but I couldn’t think of anything better. Originally I had titled it “In Good Hands.” I didn’t like that much either, and then the connection to those nauseating Allstate commercials came hammering home and I quickly deleted it. What I was trying to say is that, in my opinion, this franchise has never been at a better place. Things have gone well the last few years, things are going well at the moment, and the future is also bright. That has very rarely been the case during the history of the Atlanta Falcons. There have been brief periods where excitement and hope surrounded the team, but inevitably things always went wrong. I want to be careful not to turn this into a long history of the team so I’m going to keep it short. Arthur Blank has been determined to make this a respected franchise that will contend year in and year out. I believe he may have succeeded. The franchise has never been more stable. From ownership, to the general management, to the coaching, to the players, this team has never been as solid as it is right now.

Local Response

The city of Atlanta has not yet caught “Falcons Fever” or anything like that. There’s plenty of talk about the Falcons on local sports radio, and that’s definitely appreciated, but much of that has to do with the fact that both local college football teams are struggling. Selling tickets isn’t a problem (it rarely is in the NFL) but there are some empty seats, the fans are still arriving late, and there are always plenty of fans of the opposing team in attendance. It’s not like the team is being ignored like the Hawks, or being under appreciated like the Braves, but going to the Falcons game has not become “the thing to do” on a Sunday.

I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t disappointed that local reaction hasn’t been stronger, but I’ve come to terms with this city as a sports town. I mean, I’m disappointed that I’m not a millionaire and married to Jennifer Aniston, but I’m okay with it. That’s the way the true Falcons fans have to look at the city’s response to the team. Sure, it’d be nice if the city as a whole accepted the team and became devoted to following it, but if it never happens you can’t let it affect how you feel about the team.

If a team is losing and people don’t go to games or get behind the team it’s understandable. It’s only logical that people are going to be less excited and less likely to spend time and money on a team that’s not doing well. But if a team is winning and people still don’t get behind the team than those people just aren’t fans.

The Michael Vick thing gets some play on local sports radio but it really shouldn’t because it doesn’t deserve any attention. People who are “mad” at the Falcons for what happened to Vick and who are now rooting for the Eagles were never Falcons fans to begin with. Their view point is not valid and their opinion should be ignored. When impossible to ignore, that view point should be ridiculed and dismissed as not worthy of any sort of acknowledgement.

If the team is still winning in December I believe that it will become more of an event locally. But if not, there are more than enough true Falcons around to support the team. We don’t need to worry about the bandwaggoners. Sure, their support would be nice and it would help, but it’s not necessary.

The Positives

Obviously the Falcons have done a lot of things right on the way to a 7-2 record through 9 games. At the heart of the matter has been consistent effort, smart and disciplined play, and an ability to get the job done when the game is on the line. Of course good luck with injuries and breaks has played a part as well, but that’s true for any successful team in the NFL.

In contrast to many Falcons teams of the past, this Falcons team has not suffered from self inflected wounds. The Falcons have committed the fewest offensive penalties in the NFL. Their +9 turnover differential is 2nd best in the NFL. They have only turned the ball over 10 times all year (only 3 teams have turned it over less). The Falcons are 1 of 11 teams who have yet to surrender a pick-six.

The Falcons are a balanced team. They are very good offensively, better than average defensively, and solid on special teams. Offensively, the Falcons are 8th in yards and points, and they lead the NFL in 3rd down conversion percentage. They are not a quick strike offense, but they help the defense by hogging the ball and working on the clock. The Falcons are tops in the league in time of possession. Defensively the Falcons are just 17th in total defense but they are 8th in scoring defense. The Falcons defense has relied on turnovers and stiff defense near the goal line, as they are tied for 2nd in the league in interceptions and have allowed only 3 rushing TD’s all season. The Falcons do not excel at special teams but they are solid. Matt Bryant has converted on 18 of 21 field goals this season.

A major key to the Falcons offensive success has been the continued growth of Matt Ryan. Ryan is on pace to set career highs in attempts, completions, completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and (perhaps most importantly) fewest interceptions. Another key has been Roddy White, who may now be the single most underrated player in the entire NFL. White is a superstar wide receiver and one of the few in the NFL who is not also a diva or a selfish player. White leads the NFL in receptions and is 2nd in yards. The Falcons don’t have a lot of stars on defense, but they do have a game changer in John Abraham, who is tied for 3rd with 8 sacks this season.

Weaknesses

The Falcons do have some holes and some things that they need to get better at. Over the last few years when the Falcons couldn’t run the ball they often struggled offensively. The good news is that the Falcons passing game has improved this season to the point that this is no longer the case. The bad news is that the Falcons have not been as strong of a rushing team this season as they were the last couple of years. Michael Turner has largely avoided injuries so far this season, yet he is still on pace for his lowest totals in yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns since coming to the Falcons in 2008.

Turner has not been quite as big of a force this season, but overall the Falcons are very steady offensively. It is on defense that the Falcons have real reasons for concern. To begin with, the Falcons are still very vulnerable against the pass. They have made 14 interceptions, and this has been a huge part of their success, but it’s not necessarily something that can be counted on. Despite the fact that teams pass more against the Falcons than almost any other team, the Falcons are not in the top half of the league in sacks. The problems against the pass have been obvious in several games when the Falcons have built big leads, only to see the opposition come roaring back once they start to pass on almost every down. The Falcons have several defensive backs who are relatively small and have problems against bigger receivers. When opposing offenses are able to create favorable matchups and the Falcons don’t get pressure, the defense can be shredded with relative ease. The Falcons have a big problem getting off the field on 3rd down, as they are 31st in the NFL in opponent’s 3rd down conversion percentage. This again goes back to the secondary and the problems getting to the quarterback.

For the most part, the Falcons have been solid in special teams. There is one area in which the Falcons are really struggling and this is in the punting game. Matt Koenen has never been a guy who gets off booming punts, but with hang time the Falcons have usually been so good at limiting returns that it didn’t really matter. Plus, Koenen has often been very good at placing punts deep in enemy territory. But this season Koenen has just not been punting the ball far enough. He is dead last in the NFL in punt average. Koenen has again limited the number of returns but it hasn’t really mattered because he’s kicking the ball so short. He is 31st in net average. Making matters worse, when Koenen’s punts have been returnable he has not been able to limit those returns with hang time. Only 2 teams allow more yards per punt return than the Falcons.

Best/Worst Case Scenarios

At 7-2, the season has been close to a best case scenario so far. In 6 games decided by 7 points or less the Falcons have gone 5-1. They lost the opener in Pittsburgh in overtime. They had chances to win, as they missed a makeable field goal, and elected to kick a short field goal on 4th and 1 from the 5 late in the game when they could have taken the lead with a TD. They got the ball first in overtime but couldn’t move the ball and the Steelers scored on a 50 yard run on their first offensive play of the extra session to win the game. Pittsburgh also missed 2 field goals, including one that would have won the game in regulation, so in a way the Falcons were fortunate to get the game into overtime.

In the 5 other close games the Falcons have come out on top. In at least 4 of those games it must be said that the Falcons could easily have lost. New Orleans missed a 29 yard field goal that would have won the game in overtime. The San Francisco game was over when Ryan was picked off by Nate Clements with less than 2 minutes left. All Clements had to do was get down and the Niners would have had the win virtually sealed, but he chose to return it and White made the play of the year, stripping the ball and keeping the game saving drive alive. Against Tampa, the Falcons needed a stop on 4th and 1 from the 2 to hold on for a 26-21 win. Then in the Baltimore game, the Falcons got the benefit of a replay decision that could have gone either way. Had officials ruled Ryan’s sideline pass to Michael Jenkins incomplete it would have been 4th and 10 from deep in Atlanta territory. The game could have easily ended right there, with the Falcons losing by a point.

The Falcons don’t need to apologize for any of their wins. Every week there are many games that are decided by a handful of plays, and sometimes just plain luck. Any team that gets to the playoffs will have received its share of breaks along the way. That’s just reality in the NFL, where the difference between a division winner and a last place team is very slim. But if the Falcons keep playing with fire the chances will increase that their luck will change. They are a good team, worthy of their 7-2 record, but there is much room for improvement.

Clutch or Lucky?

While we don’t like to focus on it, luck plays a huge role in sports, and football is certainly no exception. But when a team continues to benefit from fortune time and again, we always have to wonder whether there’s more to it than just luck.

The example that always comes to mind for me is from baseball, where so much of what happens in the postseason seems to come down to just plain luck. The modern baseball format is often referred to as a crap shoot. The evidence over the last decade seems to support this theory, as time after time we see the favorites fall to teams which have been inferior over the course of the entire season. But there is a problem with the theory. It does not in any way account for what the Yankees were able to do from 1996-2000, when they won 4 titles in 5 years. It seems like there was just something about those Yankee teams, as they were able to overcome the random nature of the postseason, winning 13 of 14 series over a 5 year span. Since their 4th title in 5 years in 2000, there have been 9 different champions in 10 years, and no team has repeated. The New England Patriots seemed similarly charmed during their run of 3 championships in 4 years. During that period they seemed to get every single break. Since New England’s 3rd title in 2004, no team has even reached the Super Bowl in consecutive years.

These examples seem to show that sometimes it is not just luck. It’s as if there is skill involved in getting the breaks. While I’m always conscious of the number of times that the Falcons have seemingly prevailed due to luck during the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, I have begun to wonder if perhaps the Falcons have that certain something that allows teams to prevail in situations where the outcome of the game rides on one or two plays.

They have had a knack for winning these types of games from the start of this era. In 2008 there was the game against Chicago, when Ryan and Jenkins hooked up on a play similar to the key play in the game last Thursday. Then there was the overtime game against Tampa later in the season. Last year they beat the Bucs and the Jets on last second touchdown passes. This season the trend has continued.

The Falcons have certainly lost their share of close games, but this team has never been as good in the crunch as they have been over the last 3 years. Of all the amazing changes that this franchise has seen since Mike Smith took over and Matt Ryan and Michael Turner arrived, perhaps the most remarkable of all has been the change in the way fans feel when the game is on the line. Now we always have a sense that these guys will find a way to win, when for basically the entire history of the franchise we have been expecting the team to find some way to lose.