Friday, September 30, 2011

The NFL Blog: 2011 Week 4 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread: (5-11); Straight Up: (10-6)

Season: Vs. Spread: (19-27-2); Straight Up: (31-17)

Week 3 Review: Another poor week for me, and combined with my CFB picks, probably the worst week I’ve ever had picking football games on this blog. I knew there was a chance for disaster because I had taken so many road favorites. Making it worse for me, I’m once again out of the “Eliminator” contest early, as I had New England as my guaranteed straight up winner last week and they lost to the Bills for the first time since 2003 and just the 2nd time in their last 22 meetings.

Week 4 Preview: I got nothin’. Some interesting matchups of course, but as far as whose going to win, I have no idea. I’m just hoping for some better luck this week.


Sunday’s Early Games


Detroit (+2.5) @ Dallas

Pick: Cowboys cover

Comment: Detroit is perhaps the hottest team in the NFL, while the Boys are banged up and barley surviving from week to week. I’ll admit to being pretty surprised that the Lions are 3-0 and already 2-0 on the road. They were 10-70 on the road over the previous 10 seasons coming into this year.


Carolina (+6) @ Chicago

Pick: Bears win but Panthers beat the spread

Comment: I thought the Panthers had a chance to be more competitive than expected this season but I didn’t see them being a passing juggernaut. The Bears impressed me in week 1. Since then their play has made me really worried about my Falcons, who Chicago pummeled in the opener.


New Orleans (-6.5) @ Jacksonville

Pick: Saints cover

Comment: This seems like a small spread for a matchup between a team averaging 34.7 points a game and a team averaging 9.7 points per game.


Tennessee (+1) @ Cleveland

Pick: Browns cover

Comment: Chris Johnson got paid but hasn’t gotten rolling yet this season. It will be tougher this week as the Titans have lost their other offensive weapon in WR Kenny Britt.


Buffalo (-3) @ Cincinnati

Pick: Bills cover

Comment: Listen to this: the Bengals have played the Bills 10 times since beating them soundly in the 1988 AFC Championship Game and they’ve lost every single game. The Bills have won 4 straight and 9 of 10 ATS. Remember, these games haven’t happened on a yearly basis, they’ve been random over the course of 22 seasons, and yet regardless of the year, the pathetic Bungles just can’t seem to even beat the spread against Buffalo.

Sure, the Bills were dominant during the first half of the 90’s, but they’ve been one of the worst teams of the millennium. The Bengals, however, have been one of the worst teams almost every year since 1989 when this streak began. Oh by the way, the Bills have won 4 straight in Cincinnati (4-0 ATS).


Minnesota (-2.5) @ Kansas City

Pick: Vikings win but Chiefs beat the spread

Comment: The team that loses this game is going to be bummin’. Both teams had a chance to win last week, and the Vikes have been in every game this season. Arrowhead is a tough place to play but it’s hard for me to take the Chiefs to beat anyone anywhere right now.


San Francisco (+9.5) @ Philadelphia

Pick: Eagles win but Niners beat the spread

Comment: This is a big game for the Eagles, who have looked pretty vulnerable over the last couple of weeks. This is the 4th straight season these two have met in the regular season and the 9th time in the last 11 years. Philly has won 5 straight (5-0 ATS) and 6 of 7 (6-1 ATS) over the Niners. San Fran beat the Browns in Cleveland last Sunday and they’ve remained in Ohio this week in an attempt to overcome some of the problems they’ve had away from home. The Niners haven’t won back-to-back road games since December of 2006. They usually struggle away from the west coast, and they’ll be trying to win consecutive 1:00 PM EST games on the east coast for the first time since 2001.


Washington (-2.5) @ St. Louis

Pick: Redskins cover

Comment: Is it just me or do these teams play every season about now? No, they do play every year about this time. This will be the 4th straight year they’ve met in the regular season (week 6 in 2008, week 2 in 2009, week 3 in 2010) and the 6th time in 7 years. The Rams have won 3 of the last 4 and 4 straight ATS. However, the Rams have pretty much sucked balls so far this season. Any Rams fans who aren’t also St. Cardinals fans have got to be a bit depressed at the moment.


Pittsburgh (+3.5) @ Houston

Pick: Texans cover

Comment: I was as impressed by Houston’s loss last week as I was by their wins in weeks 1 and 2. The Steelers, meanwhile, have looked a bit shaky so far this season. And you know their pattern this decade: go to the Super Bowl one year and miss the playoffs the next year. They did in 2005-2006 and 2008-2009.


Sunday’s Late Games


Atlanta (-4.5) @ Seattle

Pick: Falcons cover

Comment: No real need to discuss this. The Falcons need to win and win convincingly or else it’s time to wonder if this is going to be a lost season.


New York Giants (-1) @ Arizona

Pick: Giants cover

Comment: I know the Cards have been competitive so far and they’re always a better team at home, but it seems like this spread should be more like NYG -3 or -3.5. They usually say that home field advantage is worth 3 points. So would the G-Men only be 4-point favorites against Arizona at home?


Denver (+12.5) @ Green Bay

Pick: Packers cover

Comment: I wonder how much longer til’ the Broncos give in to local demand and turn things over to Tebow. Packers should crush.


New England (-4.5) @ Oakland

Pick: Patriots win but Raiders beat the spread

Comment: The Pats suddenly have something to prove after blowing a big lead and getting upset by the Bills last week. The Raiders could be sitting at 3-0 and a win this week would go a long way towards making them feel like legit contenders for the playoffs.


Miami (+7) @ San Diego

Pick: Chargers cover

Comment: It’s amazing how the Chargers seem to have the same personality year in and year out. They seem to be lackadaisical, even though they’ve basically underachieved over the last decade or so. The Dolphins lost a heartbreaker last week and they could be playing for their coach’s job.


Sunday Night’s Game


New York Jets (+3.5) @ Baltimore

Pick: Ravens cover

Comment: It will be hard for this game not to be an enjoyable one for neutral fans. This is obviously a heated rivalry due to all of the connections on the coaching staffs and rosters. But this is also simply a matchup of 2 of the best teams in the AFC and it could have major implications. The Ravens have won 6 straight over the Jets, including the season opener on Monday Night Football last year.


Monday Night’s Game


Indianapolis (+10) @ Tampa Bay

Pick: Bucs win but Colts beat the spread

Comment: Well, another primetime game that doesn’t have much sizzle without Peyton Manning. I guess NBC got a better game than expected last Sunday night, and ESPN will have to hope that the same thing happens this Monday. There will still be 3 more primetime Colts games to go after this one. What’s the over/under on the number of times ESPN reminds us what the last time these two played in Tampa on MNF in 2003? Whatever it is, I’ll take the over.

No comments: