Last Week’s Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 4-6; Vs. Spread: 3-7)
Overall (Straight Up: 33-15; Vs. Spread: 20-28; Moneyline Upsets: 2-5)
Season Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 17-13; Vs. Spread: 13-16-1)
Overall (Straight Up: 102-31; Vs. Spread: 67-65-1; Moneyline Upsets: 5-7)
Week 3 Review: Absolutely awful. One of the worst weeks I’ve had picking CFB in the history of the Horse Collar. I had an off week in every area. 3-7 ATS in the biggest 10 games is poor but that sort of thing happens. Going 4-6 straight up in the biggest 10 games is unacceptable. I was 8 games under .500 ATS overall, virtually wiping out my lead over .500 built up over the first 2 weeks. I knew the luck picking upsets wouldn’t last, but losing 15 of 48 straight up is just way too many. My worst pick of the week was taking Hawaii as a 20 point favorite over UNLV. They went on to lose 40-20.
Week 4 Preview: To be honest, I think this is easily the worst week of the season so far. I’m quite serious when I say that it took a long time to settle on 10 games that I felt it wouldn’t be too big of a stretch to describe as “big.” There are only a few major showdowns this week.
The best is probably Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State. It should be highly entertaining, and it is certainly a big game, as both teams are undefeated and among the best in the country. However, even that one may have a bit of a second level feeling to it, as most people probably find it hard to imagine either team beating Oklahoma for the conference title. The Sooners will probably be favored by at least 10 points against each of those teams.
Speaking of double digits, it’s hard to make too much of the Arkansas-Bama game when the Tide is favored by 11. It’s a battle of top ten teams, but in my opinion Bama is on a different level.
That’s the only other true battle of heavyweights, unless you count LSU vs. West Virginia, which I don’t. That’s certainly a big game, but if it was being played in Baton Rouge the spread would be double digits.
I think this weekend has the potential to be disappointing in terms of how compelling the biggest matchups are. More importantly, after you get past the four or five truly interesting matchups, the drop-off is rather sharp. There could be a lot of downtime this Saturday.
Saturday
Game 1: North Carolina (+6.5) @ Georgia Tech
Pick: North Carolina beats the spread
Comment: Both ACC Coastal teams are 3-0 but neither one has really done anything that impressive. UNC finally started the year 1-0 in the ACC, something they hadn’t done in a decade. However, they really haven’t played anyone, and they’ve won somewhat unconvincingly. GT has run completely over 3 opponents, none of which are any good. The Jackets have owned this rivalry recently, winning 6 straight at home and 11 of 13 overall since 1998.
Game 2: San Diego State (+10.5) @ Michigan
Pick: San Diego State beats the spread
Comment: Brady Hoke faces his former team for the first time. Both teams are 3-0. Michigan has won big over a couple of MAC teams so far, but SD State might be better than the directional Michigan’s of the world. However, The Aztecs haven’t been all that impressive either, with wins over Cal Poly, Wazu, and Army.
Game 3: Oklahoma State (+4.5) @ Texas A&M
Pick: Oklahoma State beats the spread
Comment: This will more than likely be a back and forth shootout. 4 of the last 5 have been decided by 5 points or less, with Okie State winning the last 3. Both teams are very good. This will be just the 3rd game of the year for the Aggies, and it will be by far their toughest game so far. I think A&M is the better team, mostly because I don’t trust Ok State’s defense, and the Aggies will have the home field advantage.
Game 4: Florida State (+2.5) @ Clemson
Pick: Florida State pulls off the upset
Comment: This spread surprised me. FSU is banged up to be sure, but EJ Manuel, Bert Reed, and Greg Reid are all expected to play. Clemson has won the last 3 at home, and the visitor has lost 8 of 9 in this series. Regardless of home field advantage, I think FSU is an elite team, and Clemson is average, so I like the Noles to win.
Game 5: Arkansas (+11) @ Alabama
Pick: Arkansas beats the spread
Comment: Last year the Hogs allowed Bama to steal the game, after Arkansas led 20-7 late in the 3rd. Bama has won 19 straight conference openers. Alabama has won the last 4 by 18 points per game, and has won 5 of 6 at home against Arkansas. Arkansas played their first reasonable opponent last week and was not impressive, winning 38-28 over Troy.
Game 6: Vanderbilt (+16) @ South Carolina
Pick: Vanderbilt beats the spread
Comment: This is the most bizarre spread of the weak in my opinion. I get that it’s Spurrier against Vandy. I understand that people are skeptical of Vandy’s 3-0 record, as much of their success has been due to outrageously good luck in the turnover department. Their 3 wins have also come at home against weak opponents. It’s not that I think Vandy is good; but they’re obviously better than I expected.
They have played South Carolina tough since Spurrier arrived. In the last 4 years, Vandy has beaten SC twice, including once at Williams-Brice Stadium, and in 2009 they lost 14-10. Even last year’s game was relatively tight, as SC won 21-7. And the Gamecocks simply haven’t looked very good so far. They have consistently struggled to play their best against weaker opponents during Spurrier’s time in Columbia.
Game 7: Tulsa (+28.5) @ Boise State
Pick: Boise State covers
Comment: I thought this spread seemed a little high, even with the Broncos playing at home, and even with Tulsa having been unable to hang with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State over the last few weeks. Then I learned that GJ Kinne is not expected to play, meaning the Hurricane will be without their star QB and star WR.
That explains the Broncos being favored by more than 4 TD’s. Even with Kinne and Damaris Johnson Tulsa would have been a double digit dog on the blue turf. Without them, it’s almost not even worth paying attention to. It sucks that we’ll never know how Tulsa made have done against Oklahoma, Ok State, and Boise State if Johnson hadn’t been suspended and Kinne hadn’t gotten injured.
Game 8: Missouri (+21) @ Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: Missouri has become one of the better programs in the country under Gary Pinkel, and the Tigers are well on their way to an 8th bowl game in 9 years. But they can’t hang with the Sooners in Norman. They’ve lost 17 straight at Oklahoma. Oklahoma is 21-8-1 ATS at home since 2006, and they are 62-2 at home straight up since the start of the 2001 season.
Game 9: LSU (-5.5) @ West Virginia
Pick: LSU covers
Comment: The Mountaineers will be underdogs at home for the first time since 2005. Playing in Morgantown will certainly help West Virginia, and they nearly upset the Tigers in Baton Rouge last year, losing 20-14. On the other hand, LSU has already won by 13 on a neutral field against Oregon, and by 13 on the road against Miss State. And WV lost at home to Syracuse just last season.
Game 10: USC (+2.5) @ Arizona State
Pick: USC pulls off the upset
Comment: This game doesn’t mean as much as it would have if ASU hadn’t lost to Illinois last week. USC cannot play in the conference title game, but strangely, they are capable of being Pac-12 South champions. If they win this game they would more than likely end up winning the South and having to watch someone else go to the title game in their place.
Going into the season this looked like a de facto Pac-12 South championship game, but that’s no longer the case. ASU hasn’t lost in conference yet, but Utah has emerged as a legit contender. The Utes lost to the Trojans already, so USC could grab a strangle hold on the division race with a win in Tempe on Saturday night.
Other Games
Thursday
NC State (+7.5) @ Cincinnati (Cin covers)
Friday
Central Florida (+2.5) @ BYU (BYU covers)
Saturday
Central Michigan (+22) @ Michigan State (CM beats the spread)
Toledo (+2.5) @ Syracuse (Cuse covers)
Eastern Michigan (+28.5) @ Penn State (PSU covers)
Notre Dame (-6.5) @ Pittsburgh (ND covers)
SMU (-21.5) @ Memphis (SMU covers)
Louisiana-Monroe (+17) @ Iowa (ULM beats the spread)
Georgia (-9.5) @ Mississippi (Miss beats the spread)
Temple (+8.5) @ Maryland (Temple beats the spread)
Bowling Green (+4) @ Miami (Ohio) (BG beats the spread)
Army (-4) @ Ball State (BSU pulls off the upset)
Ohio (+4) @ Rutgers (Ohio pulls off the upset)
Kansas State (+12) @ Miami (Miami covers)
UCLA (+4) @ Oregon State (UCLA beats the spread)
Southern Mississippi (+3) @ Virginia (UVA covers)
California (+1) @ Washington (Wash covers)
Virginia Tech (-20.5) @ Marshall (VT covers)
Western Michigan (+11.5) @ Illinois (WM beats the spread)
Colorado (+15) @ Ohio State (Ohio State covers)
Tulane (+10) @ Duke (Tulane beats the spread)
UAB (+13) @ East Carolina (ECU covers)
New Mexico State (+10.5) @ San Jose State (SJS covers)
Middle Tennessee State (+12.5) @ Troy (Troy covers)
Fresno State (-3) @ Idaho (ID beats the spread)
Connecticut (-8.5) @ Buffalo (Buffalo beats the spread)
Louisiana-Lafayette (+17) @ Florida International (FIU covers)
Louisiana Tech (+19.5) @ Mississippi State (Miss State covers)
Florida (-19.5) @ Kentucky (Florida covers)
Florida Atlantic (+33) @ Auburn (Auburn covers)
UTEP (+29) @ South Florida (South Florida covers)
Rice (+20.5) @ Baylor (Rice beats the spread)
Nevada (+19.5) @ Texas Tech (Tex Tech covers)
Indiana (-6.5) @ North Texas (NT beats the spread)
Nebraska (-23) @ Wyoming (Wyoming beats the spread)
Colorado State (+9.5) @ Utah State (Utah State covers)
Oregon (-14.5) @ Arizona (Oregon covers)
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