Wednesday, September 7, 2011

The College Football Blog: 2011 Week 2 Betting Lines

Last Week’s Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 6-4; Vs. Spread: 3-7)

Overall (Straight Up: 33-7; Vs. Spread: 20-20; Moneyline Upsets: 1-1)

Season Record

Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 6-4; Vs. Spread: 3-7)

Overall (Straight Up: 33-7; Vs. Spread: 20-20; Moneyline Upsets: 1-1)

Week 1 Review: Not a great way to start the year. Of course, it could have been worse (it would have seriously pissed me off if I had lost the games that were called early because of weather), but it also could have been better (how the hell did Wisconsin and Oklahoma State end up not covering?). I guess I’ll take a .500 overall record against the spread and in moneyline upsets.

One thing I did notice was that for every FCS team that got obliterated (and there were plenty) there seemed to be another that battled an FBS team down to the wire or even won. While clearly FCS teams are still in a different league (Villanova lost to Temple 42-7 last week after losing 31-24 last year and beating the Owls 27-24 in 2009), I think they’re getting closer.

Week 2 Preview: This is a strange week, and week 2 of the college football season is often a bit weird. Some teams will be playing their first game of the year (UAB), while other teams will be playing a second straight top 15 opponent (Georgia). The slate is still littered with games against FCS teams (20 of them to be exact). There are interstate rivalry games (Iowa vs. Iowa State), heated conference battles (TCU vs. Air Force), and other games that are just games (Ball State vs. South Florida). There are historic rivalries (Michigan vs. Notre Dame) and contrived ones (Stanford vs. Duke).

There are conference games which don’t look like conference games (Utah vs. USC) and conference games which don’t look like conference games and actually aren’t conference games (Cal vs. Colorado). One of my personal favorites is this week: Tulsa vs. Tulane: The Battle of the Tul’s (each team 50% responsible for me not being able to abbreviate the other as Tul).

And there are some odd, double take, bizarre spreads. Purdue is a 1-point favorite over Rice. Penn State is a 10-point dog at home. Minnesota is favored by 20. Washington State is favored by 14 against an FBS team. Temple is favored by 15 on the road. Kansas is a 6.5-point underdog at home…to Northern Illinois.

And then there’s Memphis. The Tigers are 15-point dogs against Arkansas State of the SBC this week. But maybe conferences just don’t mean that much anymore. I think in the past Boston College being a 7-point underdog against Central Florida might have raised a few eyebrows, but now it’ll probably go unnoticed.

Thursday

Game 1: Arizona (+14) @ Oklahoma State

Pick: Oklahoma State covers

Comment: This is a rematch of last year’s Alamo Bowl, won by Okie State, 36-10. Oklahoma State is strong again this season, while Arizona is down. And this game’s at Oklahoma State. Arizona is just 18-33 straight up on the road over the last 10 years. They’d lost 8 straight road openers until scheduling Toledo on the road last season to open the year. Ok State had been 22-13-1 ATS as home favorites over the last 10 years until they somehow managed to not cover against ULL last week.

Friday

Game 2: Missouri (+7.5) @ Arizona State

Pick: Missouri beats the spread

Comment: ASU is 29-19 ATS as a home favorite over the last 10 years. Mizzu beat Miami of Ohio 17-6 at home last week.

Saturday

Game 3: Iowa (-6.5) @ Iowa State

Pick: Iowa covers

Comment: Iowa State used to be a bit of a pain in the ass for Iowa, but the Hawkeyes have won the last 3 by 12 points, 32 points, and 28 points, holding ISU to 15 total points. Iowa has now won 6 of 8. ISU escaped with a 20-19 win over Northern Iowa at home last week.

Game 4: Mississippi State (-7) @ Auburn

Pick: Auburn beats the spread

Comment: This one has usually been close lately. The Tigers are touchdown dogs at home on the basis of their lack luster performance against Utah State last week. Auburn has won 9 of 10, outgaining the Maroon Dogs in each contest by an average of 157 YPG (Phil Steele). MSU’s last win was in 2007. In 2008 they lost by the ridiculous score of 2-3. Last year they lost 14-17. However, Mississippi State has lost 11 straight SEC openers, which is one of the more astounding stats out there.

Game 5: TCU (-2) @ Air Force

Pick: TCU covers

Comment: TCU has won 7 of 8 over AF, with the last loss coming in 2007, on the road and in overtime (20-17). A slew of streaks were broken last week when the Horned Frogs fell to Baylor. Air Force, meanwhile, won 37-20 over South Dakota at home last Saturday.

Game 6: Alabama (-10) @ Penn State

Pick: Alabama covers

Comment: This is probably the sexiest matchup of the weekend but it seems destined to be rather one-sided. The Tide won over PSU at home last season, 24-3. You might think, “oh, but this one’s in Happy Valley, that’s different.” Maybe. But PSU is just 8-7 ATS as a home underdog over the last 10 years. You be wondering, “yeah, but how many times has Penn State lost by double digits at home?” Actually, they lost by 20 to Illinois at home last season. In 2009 they lost by double digits at home twice (to Iowa by 11; to Ohio State by 17). In 2007 they lost to the Buckeyes by 20 at home.

Game 7: South Carolina (-3) @ Georgia

Pick: Georgia pulls off the upset

Comment: Well, I’m sorry but I’m just not picking us to lose at home to South Carolina. Moving on, this one is often low scoring and tight. The winner has scored 20 points or less in 8 of the last 10. Georgia has won 7 of 9 and 3 of the last 4. However, SC won last year, 17-6.

Game 8: BYU (+7) @ Texas

Pick: BYU beats the spread

Comment: This is a tough one to call because I still don’t really know if either team is any good. The Longhorns are just 4-8 now over the last 3 years ATS as home favorites. BYU escaped with a 1-point win at Mississippi last week. Asking for 2 wins in a row might be too much, but they could keep it close.

Game 9: Utah (+9.5) @ USC

Pick: USC covers

Comment: This one is also hard to call for the same reasons listed directly above. USC is now just 3-9 ATS as a home favorite over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, Utah is 13-6 ATS as a road underdog over the last 10 years. USC gets their #1 RB back this week.

Game 10: Notre Dame (-3.5) @ Michigan

Pick: Michigan pulls off the upset

Comment: I like Michigan to win just because I want ND to lose again. The away team is just 3-9 in this one since 1997. ND has lost 4 of 5 and back to back games to Michigan. Their last losing streak of 3 or more games in this series was 1900-1908 (Phil Steele).

Other Games

Friday

Florida International (+4) @ Louisville (Louisville covers)

Saturday

Central Michigan (+12.5) @ Kentucky (CM beats the spread)

Florida Atlantic (+32) @ Michigan State (Mich St covers)

Toledo (+19) @ Ohio State (Ohio State covers)

Oregon State (+21.5) @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)

San Diego State (-9.5) @ Army (San Diego State covers)

Rutgers (+10.5) @ North Carolina (UNC covers)

Stanford (-21) @ Duke (Stanford covers)

North Carolina State (-2.5) @ Wake Forest (WF pulls off the upset)

Nevada (+26.5) @ Oregon (Oregon covers)

Cincinnati (+6) @ Tennessee (Cinci beats the spread)

Tulsa (-13.5) @ Tulane (Tulsa covers)

Purdue (-1) @ Rice (Purdue covers)

Hawaii (+6.5) @ Washington (Hawaii beats the spread)

Southern Miss (-7.5) @ Marshall (Marshall beats the spread)

New Mexico State (+20) @ Minnesota (Minnesota covers)

Virginia Tech (-20) @ East Carolina (ECU beats the spread)

California (-6.5) @ Colorado (Cal covers)

UNLV (+14) @ Washington State (Wash St covers)

Temple (-15) @ Akron (Temple covers)

Northern Illinois (-6.5) @ Kansas (Kansas beats the spread)

Louisiana-Lafayette (+9.5) @ Kent State (ULL beats the spread)

Georgia Tech (-11) @ Middle Tennessee State (GT covers)

UTEP (+20) @ SMU (SMU covers)

Virginia (-6.5) @ Indiana (UVA covers)

Navy (-9.5) @ Western Kentucky (WK beats the spread)

Fresno State (+28) @ Nebraska (Fresno St beats the spread)

UAB (+23.5) @ Florida (Fla covers)

Ball State (+19.5) @ South Florida (USF covers)

New Mexico (+35.5) @ Arkansas (Ark covers)

Memphis (+15) @ Arkansas State (Ark St covers)

Houston (-22) @ North Texas (Houston covers)

Connecticut (+2) @ Vanderbilt (Vandy covers)

Boston College (+7) @ Central Florida (BC beats the spread)

San Jose State (+21.5) @ UCLA (UCLA covers)

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