Last Week: Vs. Spread: (6-9-1); Straight Up: (8-8)
Season: Vs. Spread: (6-9-1); Straight Up: (8-8)
Week 1 Review: Eerily similar to week 1 last year, when I went 6-9-1 ATS and 9-7 straight up. Okay, so I guess it’s not really eerie is it? It’s like every time there’s some sort of coincidence or anything resembling a pattern somebody describes the similarities as “eerie.”
Like, “In a game eerily similar to the one played the night before, the Dodgers trailed 1-0 heading to the 9th but again scored a pair of runs off of Rod Beck to win it.”
That’s not eerie. Eerie is when you bump into a stranger on the subway in New York and realize they look and sound exactly like your imaginary friend from 2nd grade. Of course this is all a ruse, designed to distract you from the fact that I didn’t even have a winning record picking games straight up last week.
Week 2 Preview: Let me state first of all that I don’t have any idea what I’m doing. With that in mind, let’s look at the week 2 schedule. The second week is always interesting because we want to know what to make of what we saw in week 1. This has the potential to be a blowout heavy Sunday, with 4 teams favored by 9 points or more among the 10 games that begin at 1:00. The rest of Sunday figures to be pretty neat, as San Diego and New England square off in the afternoon, and Michael Vick and the Eagles play the Falcons in the Georgia Dome that evening. I gotta say, I could have used a sexier Monday Night Football matchup for week 2.
Sunday’s Early Games
Seattle (+14.5) @ Pittsburgh
Pick: Steelers cover
Comment: I know the Steelers got blitzed last week and didn’t appear to be ready for the season to begin. But honestly, if your life depended on picking the winner of one game this week, you’d go to this matchup right? It’s easily the biggest spread of week 2. This is a matchup of what should be one of the best teams in the league, at home, against what could well be the very worst team in the NFL.
The Steelers should be hungry for a win after last week’s humiliation. To cover, the Steelers will need to win by at least 3 scores, but that doesn’t seem like all that much to ask, considering that Seattle lost by 16 to San Francisco last week.
Baltimore (-5.5) @ Tennessee
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: This could be a trap game for the Ravens, coming a week after the huge win over the Steelers. Then again, maybe it’s too early in the season for that sort of thing. We’ll see if Chris Johnson can get anything going against the Baltimore defense. Last week he was shut down by Jacksonville, so there would seem to be a decent chance that he struggles against the Ravens as well. Matt Hasselbeck was effective against the Jags, but he may struggle against the intimidating Ravens D.
On the other side, I don’t see why the Titans would be able to contain Ray Rice and Joe Flacco and better than they contained Mo Jones-Drew, who carried Jacksonville’s offense while Luke McCown played “game manager.”
I really don’t think the Titans are as bad as many think, but I still like the Ravens to win by a touchdown on the road. This was once a great division rivalry, back when Ray Lewis and Eddie George banged heads (you probably are aware of who came out on top in that one-on-one battle).
Jacksonville (+9.5) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: Both teams won their opening week games, although the Jets were lucky, and the Jags won an ugly 16-14 game over Tennessee. The Jets have more weapons on offense and a much stronger defense. They should be able to control the Jacksonville running game, with no threat of a passing attack there to create balance. Unless Mark Sanchez makes a bunch of mistakes this should be a blowout.
Arizona (+4) @ Washington
Pick: Skins win but Cards beat the spread
Comment: Think about this: one of these two teams will be 2-0 when this one is over. Maybe 2-0 isn’t as big of a deal as it seems. Without question going 2-0 isn’t as big of a deal as going 0-2 is. Still, for a couple of teams picked to finish in the cellar, a 2-0 would be a major deal.
I didn’t predict big things for Washington this season, but I did have some sort of a gut feeling that the Skins might be a surprise team this year. There should be big play opportunities for Kevin Kolb and Rex Grossman in this one.
Oakland (+3.5) @ Buffalo
Pick: Bills win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: Again, it’s pretty weird that one of these two teams will end up 2-0 when this one is over. Oakland has not been a good road team recently, particularly when facing non-AFC West opponents. But hell, Buffalo hasn’t had a winning record at home since they went 5-3 in 2004. Along with home field advantage, I give the Bills the advantage at QB with Ryan Fitzpatrick over Jason Campbell.
Tampa Bay (+3) @ Minnesota
Pick: Bucs pull off the upset
Comment: I was slow to believe in the Buccaneers last year, and in some respects I never believed in them. Last week’s home loss to Detroit made me wondering if they won’t ride the rollercoaster for a 3rd straight year, as they went from 9 wins (in 2008) down to 3 wins (2009) and then back up to 10 wins last year. They should at least be mediocre this season.
The Vikings hung around against San Diego last week but it wasn’t nearly as close as the 7-point final deficit indicated. The Vikes were outgained by 220 yards and were shutout 17-0 in the 2nd half. Percy Harvin’s KR TD to start the game helped mask Minnesota’s total ineptitude offensively. Donovan McNabb was 7 for 15 for 39 yards, 1 TD, and 1 costly pick that setup a San Diego TD. Adrian Peterson ran well but didn’t crack the 100-yard mark, as San Diego dominated time of possession.
The Vikings are always tough at the Metrodome, but the Bucs went 6-2 on the road last year, while Minnesota was just 4-4 at home.
Chicago (+6.5) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints win but Bears beat the spread
Comment: I was on hand in Chicago last Sunday when the Bears mauled my Falcons 30-12. The Saints looked pretty scary last Thursday, despite allowing 42 points in a loss to Green Bay. New Orleans has a high powered offense and they should be able to win at home, but I think it will be closer than expected. The Saints’ home field advantage at the Superdome has always been a bit overstated. Don’t forget: the Bears were 6-2 on the road last season.
Green Bay (-9.5) @ Carolina
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: This was another game that kind of whispered “trap game” to me, but it’s probably nothing. As impressive as Cameron Newton’s debut was, I wouldn’t expect that to be the routine performance in his rookie year, and particular not against a defense like that of the Packers. Rodgers and the Pack should blow Carolina out. I know it’s on the road, but 9.5 is a fairly small spread.
Cleveland (-1.5) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts pull off the upset
Comment: The Colts would obviously never have become the Indianapolis Colts of the last decade plus without Peyton Manning. There have been great skill position players, solid offensive linemen, solid special teamers, and even some quality defensive players to play for the Colts during Manning’s time. But Manning has been by far the biggest factor. In recent years as the lineup around Manning has diminished in talent, and the Indy coaching staff has been a-non factor at best, Manning has kept the Colts consistent double digit game winners.
Now he’s gone (at least for a few months, maybe longer) and the Colts are just a team with no good option at QB, no difference making running back, an average defense, and perhaps the worst special teams in the NFL. They are more than likely headed for a brutal season. However, they are slight underdogs at home against the friggin’ Cleveland Browns. I mean, the Browns are the Browns, first of all. Secondly, they just somehow lost at home by double digits to the sorry Bengals. I simply have to take the Colts in this one. I have to take the home team.
Kansas City (+9) @ Detroit
Pick: Lions win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: This was the most surprising spread of the week for me. Either people are buying into Detroit hook, line, and sinker, or people are bailing hard on the Chiefs. KC was destined to take a step back this season, but I didn’t think it would be an obvious step. Last week against Buffalo they looked a lot like the team that went 10-38 from 2007-2009, and not much at all like the team that went 10-6 last year.
I thought Detroit would be better this season, and I thought they had a chance for a breakthrough if they could stay healthy. In the end, I gambled that they would suffer through one more season of double digit losses.
Apparently not everyone is proving as hard to convince as me. I know the Chiefs are a bad road team. I know that the Chiefs are without their starting TE and safety, who were two of their best overall players. But I don’t think the Lions are 10 points better than them, regardless of venue.
Sunday’s Late Games
Dallas (-3) @ San Francisco
Pick: Cowboys cover
Comment: It’s been a long time since this game meant much on a league wide level. This week it means that the Cowboys need to rebound from the choke against the Jets and get Tony Romo in the winner’s column. They are the more talented team, but the Niners won Jim Harbuagh’s first game, and they will have the home field advantage for this one.
Cincinnati (+4.5) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos win but Bengals beat the spread
Comment: I wouldn’t think the Bengals would fare well in Colorado but they did just win on the road against the Browns. Denver’s biggest issue may be keeping their fans from staging a codetta and installing Tim Tebow as quarterback, coach, general manager, owner, lord of all evangelical societies, master of all circumcisions, and poet laureate in the area of cheesy, immature, out-of-breath speeches to the media which get blown out of proportion and credited with being the driving force behind all things positive.
Houston (-3) @ Miami
Pick: Texans cover
Comment: This is a big game for the Texans. Miami isn’t a bad team and it isn’t an easy place to win. Arian Foster didn’t play last week, making Houston’s resounding defeat of the Colts all the more impressive. A somewhat silly reason to like the Texans this week is that they are 5-0 all-time against the Dolphins, with all 5 games coming since 2003.
San Diego (+7) @ New England
Pick: Patriots win but Chargers beat the spread
Comment: This is the best matchup of week 2. These are two of the best teams in the NFL and they have shared one of the better rivalries of the past decade, even if LT’s departure from San Diego has lessened the intensity. There should be plenty of fireworks, as two of the most explosive passing offenses go at it.
Last week the Chargers made many of the same types of mistakes that cost them throughout last year, but they were able to come away with a win. This week they will need to commit fewer errors in order to win on the road against the Patriots.
Sunday Night’s Game
Philadelphia (-1.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: This is the other great matchup of the weekend, although unfortunately much of what makes it so intriguing has to do with the Michael Vick saga. Personally I always dread this game (remember, this is the 3rd year in a row the Falcons will face an Eagles team with Michael Vick on the roster, although this will be the first time he will start). It’s not so much the threat of being beaten by Vick’s team, as I don’t really hold much resentment towards him personally, so losing doesn’t hurt worse than it always does. Plus, I’m always afraid of the Eagles. It was that way long before Vick arrived, and it continued to be that way last season, as we lost a game that wasn’t all that competitive to the Eagles without Vick taking a single snap.
The dread is about being forced to confront the awkward and embarrassing conflict that still exists between Falcons fans and Michael Vick fans. There’s no logic behind it at all, but there still remains a large group of people in the local area (many of whom are would-be Falcons or NFL fans) who feel some sort of loyalty to Mike Vick and/or would rather see Vick succeed than the home team.
No true Falcons fan wants these people around but there is little that can be done about. They will be there. The worst part is that if momentum continues to go the way it has, and the Eagles come in and work the home team, the Vick Group (for lack of a better term) will gain support and band wagon fans. Those people are the worst of all. But again, even the most diehard Falcons fans have little recourse in the matter.
Right now, with the way things have gone for all of my teams, including the Falcons, there’s just no way I can pick us to win without feeling like I’m throwing the pick away.
Monday Night’s Game
St. Louis (+6) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Comment: As I mentioned earlier, this isn’t much of a MNF matchup. I mean it’s better than the annual Arizona vs. San Francisco game, but still. I’m not going to feel bad if I hit the hay early and catch up on sleep I missed while watching sports from 12:00 PM Saturday to 11:00 PM Sunday.
The G-Men should get Osi, Justin Tuck, and Travis Beckum back this week. Meanwhile, Danny Amendola and Steven Jackson are expected to miss this game for St. Louis.
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