Note about the Power Rankings: This year I’ll be formulating my power rankings a little differently from the last 3 years. Those of you who have kept up with my blogs in the past know that my power rankings were always based on a hypothetical head-to-head matchup on a neutral field. This seemed like the most simple, clean way to take the “eye test.”
The problem with this method is that it ignores the fact that teams don’t matchup exactly the same against all other teams. I would be going through the exercise of matching teams off against each other in my mind and I would realize that I might favor my #7 team over my #2 team in a head-to-head contest based on some aspect of the matchup. Then I would try to adjust and I would get all conflicted and end up not feeling very confident in my rankings.
So I’m tweaking the system a bit this year. These power rankings will be based simply on overall team strength (or at least my opinion, belief, perception, analysis, feeling, etc. of each team’s overall strength). By overall strength I mean offense, defense, special teams, coaching, and intangibles. The hypothetical head-to-head matchup on a neutral field tool will only be used as a sort of tie-breaker in very close calls.
Everything else about the power rankings will be the same as always. For those who don’t already know, these rankings don’t represent where I think each team will finish this season. I don’t take schedules into account at all and I ignore all non-season ending injuries or suspensions.
2011 Preseason Power Rankings
1. Alabama
2. Oklahoma
3. LSU
4. Florida State
5. South Carolina
6. Texas A&M
7. Oregon
8. Georgia
9. Boise State
10. Texas
11. USC
12. Ohio State
13. Stanford
14. Nebraska
15. Oklahoma State
Notes: With each year predicting college football seems to be getting closer and closer to what predicting college basketball has become: an exercise in futility. The problem with predicting college basketball is that each year there are a million guys leaving early for the pros, a million guys transferring, and a million new impact freshmen. The problem with predicting college football is that each year there seem to be 10 or 12 teams who may or may not be facing extreme NCAA sanctions and could have several of their key players missing anywhere from 1 game to the entire season. Usually at least half of the programs under suspicion are among the sport’s elite. As a general rule I try to ignore as best I can and just push through, but that doesn’t make it any easier to get any of your picks right.
1. Alabama
Positive: Bama has the top running back, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers, secondary, and head coach in their conference, and that conference happens to be far and away the best conference in the country. 10 starters return on a defense that might be the best in the nation. RB Trent Richardson is a Heisman candidate. The Tide is solid in special teams. Bama returns 17 starters and loses just 15 lettermen.
Negative: Senior QB Greg McElroy, former Heisman winning RB Mark Ingram, and star WR Julio Jones all must be replaced. They also lost stud DE Marcell Dareus (drafted 3rd overall) and left tackle James Carpenter (drafted 26th overall). They are naturally very inexperienced at quarterback.
Outlook: Losing four 1st round draft picks and a senior QB is a bummer, but the Tide just reloads. Nick Saban needed just one year to get a sleeping dragon wide awake and pissed off and breathing fire at everything nearby. With Urban Meyer quitting, then going through the motions for one more year, and then quitting again, Bama took over the position of most continuously talent rich system. They will be the top team in the top conference for years to come. If Saban wants to, he should be able to keep Bama a national title contender on a yearly basis for the foreseeable future. Bama was a favorite to win the national title last year and they ended up losing 3 games. It’s hard to repeat. This year I expect them to put it all together and win their 2nd title under Saban in the last 3 years.
2. Oklahoma
Positive: For starters, they’re the most talented team in the country. QB Landry Jones is now a junior and poised to make a run at the Heisman. With Ryan Broyles back for his senior season the Sooners have one of the best receiving groups in the nation. True freshman RB Brandon Williams created quite a buzz last spring and could be a stud. They have a very good defensive line, a talented group of linebackers, and a top notch secondary. They are solid at special teams and should be improved in that area, especially with Broyles back as a return man. The offensive line returns 4 starters and 8 of the top 10 and should be dramatically improved. That would solve the one weakness on this team from a year ago. They have an excellent head coach and a veteran team, with 75% of lettermen back and 16 returning starters.
Negative: First off, the negative for me is that I often project Oklahoma to be one of the top three teams in the country and they don’t always make me look good. They lose superstar all-purpose back Demarco Murray and 2010 Big XII Defensive POY DE Jeremy Beal. One of the strengths of this year’s squad was expected to be the veteran group of linebackers. The death of senior LB Austin Box during the offseason obviously changed things. Then senior linebacker Travis Lewis—the heart and soul of the defense—was injured this summer and will miss at least part of the season. In 2008, an injury to veteran linebacker Ryan Reynolds changed Oklahoma’s defense from top notch to mediocre and they went from being totally dominant to having to outscore opponents in shootouts, eventually losing to Florida in the BCS Championship Game. Speaking of losing BCS games, you still have to be concerned with Oklahoma’s recent play in big bowl games. Last year’s blowout of UConn in the Fiesta Bowl was much needed but not the cure-all. The Sooners have new co-OC’s this year (although both coaches promoted from within).
Outlook: I’ll say it again. They are the most talented team in the country. One of these years they are going to put it all together, avoid all slipups, and win every game on their schedule.
3. LSU
Positive: The Tigers return 15 starters from an 11-win team. They have a deep and experienced group of QB’s and should be much improved at the position. 9 of the top 10 return on the O-line. They should be improved on the defensive line as well. 5 of top 6 LB’s return, as well as 8 of 12 in the secondary. Very solid around on defense. And they have the Mad Hatter.
Negative: For starters, there’s the whole brawl thing which is going to cause several players (including Jordan Jefferson) to miss at least the opener. Steve Kragthorpe was hired to be the new OC and there were great hopes due to his reputation as a QB guru. Unfortunately, Kragthorpe was diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease late this summer. He will continue as QB coach but the OL coach will be calling plays and creating game plans. This is obviously disappointing because it has often been the offensive decisions which have featured prominently in late game gaffes with clock management, down and distance, penalties, etc. While I think they should be better overall on the defensive line, they do lose their top defensive linemen from last year (Drake Nevis). Star CB and return man Patrick Peterson is gone (#5 overall). Peterson was PR and KR, and they are also losing punter, kicker, and special teams coach.
Outlook: For me there’s a fairly large drop off after the top 2 teams. As for the next level down, the SEC is always a good place to start. It’s popular to view Les Miles as an idiot who lucked into a job and a national championship. It’s popular to say that all of the things the LSU football team has achieved over the last few years have been done in spite of Miles’ coaching, not because of it. But I really don’t think that notion would be as popular if Miles hadn’t entered into a no-win situation at LSU, taking over for Nick Saban. He’s not Saban. Clock management isn’t his strong suit. The Tigers have had to win ugly (and lucky) at times. But they’ve won at least 11 games in 4 of his 6 seasons at LSU and they’ve never won fewer than 8 in any of those seasons. In some way he is a good coach. It’s as simple as that. And as always, the Tigers are talented.
4. Florida State
Positive: Return 16 starters and 80.6% of lettermen. Loaded with talent at the skill positions. EJ Manuel is athletic QB. All RB’s and WR’s return. Strong along the line on both sides of the ball. Very experienced OL. DL best it’s been in years and same with the secondary. Everyone returns in solid special teams unit. Jimbo Fisher is now in his 2nd year running the show and should be completely settled in.
Negative: They do lose veteran QB Christian Ponder who went 12th overall in the draft. They also lose 2 solid starters from the OL. And the LB unit is expected to be down this season.
Outlook: It took the forcing out of the man who built the program, but I think the Noles are finally back. For real.
5. South Carolina
Positive: Super RB-WR combo of Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffries returns. As always, the Gamecocks will be stout on defense, led by a an excellent front 7. The QB spot could potentially be a strength for South Carolina, as the talent is definitely there. Spurrier is not the force he once was but he’s still dangerous.
Negative: Well obviously the question is still the quarterback. Stephen Garcia is certainly talented, but he’s mental weaknesses have caused him problems both on and off the field. The Gamecocks return just 13 starters. QB play is certainly the biggest issue facing South Carolina, but there are other potential weak spots in all phases of the game. For the offense, the line is the weak link. Defensively it’s the secondary that is the question mark. And South Carolina is just flat out not very good in the special teams department.
Outlook: Garcia is a senior and he may finally figure it out this season. If the OL stays healthy they could improve a lot this season. And the secondary should be better than last year. SC finally got over the hump and had a better than decent season last year. I know we say this every year, but this could very well be Spurrier’s best South Carolina team.
6. Texas A&M
Positive: 18 starters and 80.3% of lettermen are back for the Aggies. They lose just 6 of the top 50 on the depth chart from last season. Senior QB Ryan Tannehill ignited the team last season when he took over for Jerrod Johnson, and he should be even better this season as the fulltime #1 QB from the start. Both stud RB’s (Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael) are back and the entire WR unit is back, including senior Jeff Fuller. The Aggies have an excellent offensive line and 9 of the top 10 linemen return. Defensively A&M’s strength is in the secondary, which returns intact. The defensive line should be better in 2011, and A&M should be better overall on the defensive side of the ball as this will be the second year in the 3-4. All of the key ST players are back this season.
Negative: The obvious downer is that all-world LB Von Miller is gone (#2 overall). Also gone is LB Michael Hodges who led the team in tackles in 2010. There are two other issues which don’t really have much to do with the players on this year’s team but which could have a negative impact. The first is a sort of jinx. The last A&M senior QB’s have had poor final seasons in College Station. The other issue is a sort of conspiracy. A&M has announced that this will be their last year in the Big XII, and you have to wonder what kind of treatment they will receive from conference officials.
Outlook: Obviously this is Mike Sherman’s best A&M team. A&M hasn’t had great success in the Big XII but they should go out with a bang.
7. Oregon
Positive: QB Darron Thomas had a breakout year in 2010 and he returns as a junior this season. LaMichael James is a Heisman candidate and the leader of the best RB corps in the nation. The offensive line should again be one of the best in the country. Everyone returns from the ST unit which should again be excellent. And once again they will have one of the best secondary’s around.
Negative: Well, we have to start with the off the field stuff, which includes suspensions for Thomas and top DB Cliff Harris. Then there is the NCAA investigation into possible major violations which will hang over the program for the foreseeable future. On the field, the Ducks return just 11 starters from the squad that reached the BCS title game. They will have to replace 3 starters on the OL, which while still top notch will be much less experienced. They also lose their top 2 receivers. Oregon is not as deep on the defensive side of the ball this season, as they face key losses in the front 7.
Outlook: Oregon will have to survive the suspensions and hope to avoid the axe from the NCAA. If that stuff works out okay the Ducks can figure out the rest. They have a slew of speedy receivers coming to fill the holes at WR, and when in doubt they can just give it to James. And remember, this is Oregon’s 3rd year under Chip Kelly.
8. Georgia
Positive: QB Aaron Murray exceeded high expectations as a freshman, and he is the top QB in the SEC heading into his sophomore campaign. He’s got a talented group of pass catchers to work with and one of the top incoming players in the country in RB Isaiah Crowell. The Dawgs should be greatly improved on the defensive line and in the secondary. The entire defense should improve as this will be the 2nd year with DC Todd Grantham. This year the Dawgs will have a true nose tackle (Jonathan Jenkins) for the 3-4. Georgia also has the top special teams unit in the nation with their kicker, punter, and both return men coming back.
Negative: Georgia’s two leading rushers were expected to return, but Washaun Ealey left the program and Caleb King entered the supplementary draft. Also gone is their top blocking back (Shaun Chapas). Star wideout AJ Green left early (#4 overall) and veteran receiver Chris Durham graduated. Offensive line has been a disaster for Georgia in recent years. And let’s face it, the Dawgs are 12-12 against FCS opponents over the last two seasons.
Outlook: It’s difficult for me to look at Georgia objectively. The last two seasons I’ve proven to be way too optimistic and perhaps I’ll do it for a 3rd straight year. But my heart says the Dawgs will be better than expected this season.
9. Boise State
Positive: 77.3% lettermen back from a team that was a missed chip shot field goal away from a 2nd straight undefeated season. QB Kellen Moore is a 4-year starter and one of the best QB’s in the country. The Broncos have no weaknesses on offense or defense.
Negative: The Broncos do lose some guys this year. 2 of their top 3 RB’s are gone, as well as a pair of NFL draft pick receivers (Titus Young and Austin Pettis). This is their first year in the MWC and they are breaking in a new OC as well. And you never know, not being able to wear all blue uniforms at home could hurt (I’m only mostly kidding). The secondary also losses some keys this year. They must also replace their kicker, punter, and kick returners.
Outlook: They don’t lose much. If they beat Georgia in the Dome they’re a shoe-in for a BCS bowl.
10. Texas
Positive: Look, Texas was obviously down last year, but they had a lot of bad luck. There’s no way they’ll be as bad at QB this season. Garrett Gilbert is now a junior and you have to think he’ll do better than 10 TD’s and 17 picks. Freshman Malcolm Brown is the top incoming RB in the country, so that should help. There’s no question about the defense, which returns its entire set of LB’s. They are excellent at all three levels and will be one of the best defenses in college football. Texas has great coaching and great special teams.
Negative: The Horns have just 12 starters back this season. They lose star DE Sam Acho, as well as 3 key DB’s. The offensive line is inexperienced. Also, Texas will be replacing both coordinators.
Outlook: Most people aren’t high on the Horns this season but I just don’t think it will take Texas long to get back to where they were for Mack Brown’s first 12 seasons in Austin. Yes, the OL is young but also talented. Mack Brown has done a very good job replacing the coordinators, bringing in Boise State’s OC to team up with co-OC Major Applewhite, and getting the DC from Miss State to replace Will Muschamp.
11. USC
Positive: The Trojans are very talented at all of the skill positions, the offensive line, and all three levels of defense. Matt Barkley is now a junior and should be primed for his best season.
Negative: USC returns just 62.9% of lettermen and 13 starters.
Outlook: Let’s see how Troy does a year removed from the shock of being crushed by the NCAA’s hammer. Don’t forget about them. They’re still capable.
12. Ohio State
Positive: Actually, there is a lot to be positive about on the field. Despite the losses, Ohio State is still strong on all three defensive levels, at the skill positions, and on the offensive line. The offensive line is experienced and that always helps to hold things together.
Negative: Clearly there are plenty of things to talk about here. First and foremost, Jim Tressel, the man who made Ohio State the dominant program in the Big Ten and a perennial contender for the national championship is now gone. Everyone wants to believe that Luke Fickell is up to the task of being the new head coach, but the truth is that nobody knows whether he can handle it or not. While Terrelle Pryor never lived up to those lofty expectations, and though he played a major part in bringing the program down, not having the QB back for his senior year is a major loss on the field. And the suspensions of various other players will be difficult to overcome as well. While most of the suspensions will be served during games against weak opponents, the Buckeyes will have to do without some of their best players for certain weeks. DeVier Posey—the top returning receiver—and Dan Herron—the top returning running back are among those serving suspensions. Starting left tackle Mike Adams will also miss games. In addition, the Buckeyes lose clutch receiver Dane Sanzenbacher. Defensively, Cameron Heyward and Dexter Larimore are gone from the defensive line, and Ohio State will have to replace key players at linebacker and defensive back as well.
Outlook: Clearly a QB must emerge, but the Bucks should be able to survive the suspensions due to the schedule being fairly light early on. Defensively, the losses of Heyward and Larimore will hurt but the D-line is deep and talented. In my opinion, the important issue with the coaching situation is more about what happens in the years to come than the 2011 season. We’ve seen this situation before where everyone is rooting for a guy like Fickell to succeed in a tough spot and everyone around the program wants to rally around the guy. Things often go well initially, but as we all know, being the head coach of a major college football program is a 365-day a year job.
13. Stanford
Positive: Obviously it all starts with Andrew Luck’s surprising decision to return to Stanford for his junior year. Many (if not most) people would call Andrew Luck the best quarterback in college football, and having that sort of QB will give just about any team a chance. It’s not just Luck that gives them a chance offensively, as they have a stable of talented backs, led by Stepfan Taylor. Defensively the strength is at linebacker. They should also be better overall in special teams this season. Stanford returns 73.4% of lettermen from a team that went 12-1 with their only loss coming at Oregon.
Negative: As big of a boost as Luck’s decision to return was for Stanford’s immediate future, I have to say that I think the departure of head coach Jim Harbaugh was a much bigger blow for Stanford in the grand scheme of things. This season Stanford’s defense is expected to be down from last year and they have co-DC’s taking over for Vic Fangio (who followed Harbaugh to the 49ers). Only 11 starters are back this year, and to be honest, Stanford had a lot of good luck last season. Stanford loses a lot along both lines. The offensive line returns 2 key guys but loses 3 from last season’s superb starting 5. In addition, Luck will be without his top 2 receivers from last year and that position could end up being a weakness this year. Also, while Stanford should be better on special teams, they lose their great kicker.
Outlook: Just like Ohio State, Stanford may not really feel the effects of losing their great head coach until after the 2011 season. Last year’s OC is the new head coach, and Stanford promoted from within to fill the vacant OC spot. Those were probably the right moves to make for this season with Luck coming back.
14. Nebraska
Positive: The Cornhuskers are again led by a top notch defense. Nebraska is solid at all three levels of defense, especially in the front 7 where they will again be stacked. QB prospect Bubba Starling opted for a career in baseball instead of playing for Nebraska but the Cornhuskers should improve at the key position this season. Taylor Martinez (sophomore) and Cody Green (junior) will each have more experience this season and they are capable. Nebraska will again have a strong rushing attack, despite the loss of Roy Helu, as Rex Burkhead and freshman Aaron Green should be an excellent combo. The passing game should be helped by the addition of true freshman Jamal Green. The Cornhuskers had a pair of tough losses last season and were pretty unlucky overall, so they should be due to catch a few breaks in their first season in the Big Ten.
Negative: The Cornhuskers return just 12 starters and 67.9% of lettermen this year. Among the losses are 3 starters from the O-line and some key members of the secondary, including Prince Amukamara (#19 overall). Nebraska will also have a new offensive coordinator this season. The biggest question mark for Nebraska is special teams. They lose punter/place kicker Alex Henery as well as PR/KR Niles Paul.
Outlook: With the strong defense and rushing attack, if Nebraska can get more consistent play from the QB spot they should make an easy transition to the Big Ten.
15. Oklahoma State
Positive: The Cowboys will be hard to stop on offense again in 2011. The fantastic offensive line returns intact this year and Ok State will have senior QB Brandon Weeden and superstar WR Justin Blackmon forming the best QB-WR tandem in the country. #2 receiver Josh Cooper is also back. Defensively, the Cowboys have 7 of 8 returning in the secondary.
Negative: The Cowboys return a lot on the offensive side, but star RB Kendall Hunter is gone. They also lose 1st team All-Big XII FB Bryant Ward. In addition, Okie State will be breaking in another new OC. Defensively the Cowboys are always shaky, and they will be again this season. They lose their top defensive lineman and their top linebacker. The Cowboys will also have to replace star K/P Dan Bailey. Finally, while Oklahoma State went 11-2 last season they had a lot of things go their way and might not get as many breaks in 2011.
Outlook: Ok State’s offense makes them contenders in the Big XII. Their defense may again keep them from contending for a national title.
Just Outside the Power 15
Arkansas
Limitations
Mississippi State
Virginia Tech
Penn State
Wisconsin
Arizona State
Dark Horse Contenders
Florida
Tennessee
Auburn
Michigan
Miami
Cincinnati
South Florida
Notre Dame
Possible BCS Busters
Boise State
TCU
BYU
Tulsa
Houston
SMU
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