Tuesday, September 6, 2011

The College Football Blog: 2011 Season Résumé Rankings (After Week 1)

Note about the season résumé rankings: These rankings are based solely on each team’s body of work during the season. In the beginning these rankings are a little weird because we are short on evidence and it’s obviously difficult to determine strength of opponent. These rankings will become more meaningful as the season progresses.

Season Résumé Rankings after Week 1

1. LSU (1-0)

2. Boise State (1-0)

3. South Florida (1-0)

4. Oklahoma (1-0)

5. Texas A&M (1-0)

6. Baylor (1-0)

7. BYU (1-0)

8. Northwestern (1-0)

9. Houston (1-0)

10. South Carolina (1-0)

Explanation: While it may not be very meaningful (or long lasting) the first edition of these rankings was pretty easy to come up with since each team has played only 1 game. In a sense, I was picking the 10 “best wins” of opening weekend and ranking them from 1 to 10. These rankings may completely change next week but I still think it’s a decent and highly logical starting point.

1. LSU: 1-0 (won vs. Oregon [Arlington], 40-27). LSU opens the season at #1, as they had by far the biggest and best win in week 1. The Tigers won convincingly over one of the best teams in the country at a neutral site, despite being without several key players, including their starting QB.

2. Boise State: 1-0 (won vs. Georgia [Atlanta], 35-21). Boise State starts the year at #2, as they had what was easily the 2nd best win of the weekend. We don’t know how good Georgia will turn out to be, but they are an SEC team and plenty talented, and the Broncos beat them handedly in their own back yard.

3. South Florida: 1-0 (won at Notre Dame, 23-20). South Florida begins the season at #3, as they went on the road and “upset” ND. The first two teams in these rankings were obvious, but from there on it wasn’t as clear. I went with USF at #3 because they were the other team to beat what should be a really good team in 2011, and one of the only teams to get a true road win. This season set up for ND to have their best season in years, but South Florida is also a solid squad and this could end up being a dream season for them. They went to ND and won despite two lengthy weather delays—one at halftime that lasted 2 hours and 10 minutes, and another with 4:21 left in the game that lasted 43 minutes—that could have changed the momentum. The Bulls were outgained 508-254, but they won the turnover battle 5-0. They led 16-0 at halftime and took a 23-7 lead with 11:05 to go. ND cut it to 23-20 with 21 seconds left but USF recovered the onsides kick to seal the win.

4. Oklahoma: 1-0 (won vs. Tulsa, 47-14). Oklahoma is at #4, as the Sooners destroyed perhaps the best team in C-USA.

5. Texas A&M: 1-0 (won vs. SMU, 46-14). Texas A&M comes in at #5, as they blew out one of the better teams in C-USA. I have the Aggies behind Oklahoma because I think Tulsa is slightly better than SMU.

6. Baylor: 1-0 (won vs. TCU, 50-48). Baylor opens the year at #6, as the Bears won a shootout against MWC power TCU. Some people would have Baylor higher because they beat TCU, a team that has been a regular in the top 10 over the last few years. However, just the fact that Baylor was able to score 50 points on TCU tells you that this is not a typical Horned Frogs team. With their star QB gone and only 8 starters returning, TCU was supposed to be down this season. Also, Baylor led 47-23 at the start of the 4th, and just 10 and a half minutes later they were behind 48-47. They needed a field goal with a minute left to retake the lead and then intercepted a pass inside their own territory to hang on for the win. Baylor’s win may have been “bigger” than Oklahoma’s or A&M’s, but I don’t think it was more impressive.

7. BYU: 1-0 (won at Mississippi, 14-13). BYU opens the year at #7, as they pulled out a miracle win in SEC country. This is a questionable pick, as Mississippi opened last year by losing to Jacksonville State at home, and wasn’t supposed to be that strong this season. However, winning on the road in the SEC is not easy, and BYU was down 13-0 with less than 10 minutes to play. They recovered a fumble in the end zone to take a one point lead with 5 minutes left and hung on for the victory.

8. Northwestern: 1-0 (won at Boston College, 24-17). NW is #8, as the Wildcats won at Chestnut Hill without their star QB Dan Persa. Even though BC is expected to be average this season, this would have been a very solid win on its own, as BC came in 50-15 at home over the last 10 years, and hasn’t stayed home during bowl season since 1998. But to win without Persa made this much more impressive.

9. Houston: 1-0 (won vs. UCLA, 38-34). Houston opens at #9, as they beat UCLA. Houston was at home and they were actually favored over UCLA, which is expected to be below average again in the Pac-12. I might have had the Cougars ranked higher, but after leading 31-14 at halftime, they were outscored 14-0 in the 3rd quarter, and fell on a fumble in the end zone to score their only points of the 2nd half. They blocked an extra point and then fell on the onsides kick with a minute left to hang on for the 4-point win.

10. South Carolina: 1-0 (won vs. East Carolina [Charlotte], 56-37). South Carolina starts out at #10, as they pulled away from the Pirates to win big on a neutral site. This would probably be the most controversial pick of these rankings, as the Gamecocks really didn’t look very impressive in their win over what should have been a fairly overmatched opponent. But ECU is always feisty and South Carolina fell into a big hole early when QB Stephen Garcia was out of the game. By the time Garcia entered the game, the Cocks had already turned it over 3 times and were in a 17-0 hole. They outscored ECU 56-20 the rest of the way. ECU should be a decent team in the C-USA this season, and SC ended up beating them by 19 on a neutral field, with their starting QB only playing 3 quarters.

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