Saturday, September 3, 2011

The Bulldawg Blog: 2011 Season Preview

The 2011 season begins in just a few hours. I’m excited and nervous as always. I’m also a little scared. Why? I mean let’s be honest; things haven’t gone that well the last few years. Let’s take one last look at what’s gone on since the Dawgs started the 2008 season ranked #1 and won their first 4 games:

Lost more than 4 games in a season for the first time since 1996; had first losing season since 1996; lost more than 4 in a row in back to back seasons for the first time since 1995-1996; fired defensive coordinator; had AD fired following embarrassing arrest for DUI; changed offensive line coaches and strength and conditioning coaches; lost a bowl game for the first time since 2005; lost to Central Florida, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Colorado, Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Arkansas; gave up 49 points in a loss to Auburn; gave up 45 points in a loss to Tennessee; lost to LSU thanks to an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty; fell behind 35-0 to Alabama at home; gone 0-3 vs. Florida, including losing by combined score of 90-27 in 2008 and 2009; struggled mightily with personal foul penalties; had a slew of arrests, suspensions, infractions, and transfers; had 3 of the most talented players in program history leave early; and a lot more bad shit.

That wasn’t much fun. Things can only get better right? Right? Don’t ask me. I’m not very good at predicting how the Bulldogs will do in football. Just looking back over the short history of this blog it’s obvious that I have a tendency to be too optimistic and overrate my team.

In 2008 I had the Bulldogs ranked #2 in my preseason power rankings (that year I actually caught shit for not being optimistic enough), going 7-1 in conference, 12-1 overall, and finishing 2nd in the SEC East. They ended up going 6-2 in conference, 10-3 overall, finishing 2nd in the SEC East, and ranked #13 in the final poll.

In 2009 I had the Bulldogs ranked #13 in my preseason power rankings, going 6-2 in conference, 10-3 overall, and finishing 2nd in the SEC East. They ended up going 4-4 in conference, 8-5 overall, finishing 3rd in the SEC East, and unranked in the last poll.

Last year I had the Dawgs ranked #12 in my preseason power rankings, going 7-1 in conference, 11-2 overall, and finishing 2nd in the SEC East. They ended up going 3-5 in conference, 6-7 overall, finishing 3rd in the SEC East, and unranked in the final poll.

This may explain a strange paradox. I don’t feel all that good about the Dawgs’ prospects this season, yet I have them ranked #8 in my preseason power rankings, going 6-2 in conference, 11-3 overall, and finishing 1st in the SEC East. I guess I just can’t help myself. So you can either be encouraged or discouraged by my predictions. Or you can just ignore them, which is probably the most sensible.

Dawgs Roster Overview

Quarterbacks

This is without a doubt Georgia’s biggest strength, as Aaron Murray was fantastic as a freshman and should only be better as a sophomore. Of course, if anything ever happened to Murray the Dawgs could be totally screwed, because there is virtually no one behind him. This is more of a concern than usual because Murray likes to make plays with his feet and doesn’t always protect himself. Hutson Mason played in 4 games last season but is probably not a future starter. Christian LeMay is a highly touted freshman who was in for spring but he’s not even on the depth chart at the moment.

Running Backs

A few months ago this looked like an area of great strength and depth for Georgia. Leading rushers (JR) Washaun Ealey and (SR) Caleb King were both expected to return, along with (JR) Carlton Thomas. Even with all of those guys back, highly touted freshman Isaiah Crowell was expected to challenge for a starting spot. The careers of King and Ealey had been plagued by injuries, mental mistakes, and off the field troubles, so it wasn’t a complete shock when Ealey decided to transfer and King left the program and entered the supplemental draft. It was, however, disappointing. While it may be true that King and Ealey exemplified just the sort of player that needed to be weeded out in order to get the program back to where it was, their departure still leaves the RB position thin and lacking in experience. Even if it truly is addition by subtraction, it would only mean that two more highly touted players ended up being complete disasters at Georgia.

With Ealey and King gone, the Dawgs decided to move another disappointing highly touted RB back to his original position. Junior Richard Samuel had been moved to linebacker, but that move was a total failure, and this spring he moved back to tailback and will get the start in week 1. Crowell will be the #2 RB, and if tradition holds, Samuel and Crowell will be used about equally. Thomas should also share the duties, but not in week 1, as (surprise surprise) he’s suspended for the opener. The fullback position is also important in UGA’s offense, and the Dawgs will have to reload at that spot as well. Shaun Chapas and Fred Munzenmaier are both gone. To replace Chapas, the Dawgs are turning to yet another displaced veteran in (SR) Bruce Figgins, who will move to FB from tight end.

I really don’t know whether to think of running back as a strength for Georgia or not, and that’s not a good thing. It’s all going to depend on how ready Crowell is as a freshman and how well Samuel and Figgins due in their old/new positions. Early on in his freshman year Samuel looked pretty good, as he was a tremendous physical specimen, but to me he just wasn’t that good of a “football player.” His instincts didn’t seem that great and he had a lot of trouble holding on to the ball (what Georgia running back hasn’t had that problem over the last few years?). The plan was to move him to linebacker but he ended up redshirting last year. Maybe he’ll finally put it together and it’ll be a great story. That’s what fans have to hope for.

Thomas has speed but in my mind he’s more of a 3rd down, catch passes out of the backfield type of RB. He will help though. Figgins’ ability to play FB will also be big, as he will be crucial for pass blocking, pass catching, and carrying the ball in short yardage situations. Alex Ogletree will also play FB. He was more of a throw-in when the Dawgs were recruiting brother Alec, but sometimes those types of guys make great fullbacks.

Receivers

Obviously the loss of AJ Green is huge. We did not fare very well whenever he couldn’t play the last couple of years. The dependable Chris Durham will also have to be replaced. There is some experience and a lot of talent at this position on the roster, but someone will have to step up. (JR) Tavarres King has shown flashes in his career so far and hopefully he can step up and be the #1 receiver. (JR) Marlon Brown has a ton of speed and was highly touted out of high school, but he hasn’t done much so far and at this point you have to question whether or not he’s totally focused. (JR) Rantavious Wooten will also play a lot but I’m not sure how much we can expect from him.

Israel Troupe was once expected to have a great career at Georgia but he is now a senior and I think at this point it would be foolish to count on him for much. Michael Bennett (redshirt freshman) and Malcolm Mitchell (true freshman recruited as a DB) played a lot in the spring and should see a lot of action this season. There are other guys who could end up producing but no other obvious guys to look for at the moment.

The Dawgs are very strong at tight end and that will help. (JR) Orson Charles is matchup nightmare for a lot of teams, and (SR) Aron White is a solid #2 TE. (SO) Arthur Lynch redshirted last year and didn’t play much in 2009 but he was highly touted out of high school.

Offensive Line

Well, the last two years I expected the O-line to be UGA’s biggest strength and they’ve ended up sucking, so I’m not sure what to think this season. Trinton Sturdivant’s 3rd knee surgery ended his tragic career this spring. The Davis boys (Josh and Chris) are gone, along with backup Ben Harden. The biggest loss is guard Clint Boling who was drafted 4th round by the Bengals. There is some experience back, but not much depth, and to be honest, I just don’t know if Georgia’s linemen are any good, regardless of experience.

(SR) Center Ben Jones is the rock in the middle and probably our best lineman. (SR) Cordy Glenn has a ton of experience and has NFL talent, but this year he’ll be switching from guard to left tackle. It’s not a question of having to learn the position that worries me, as he has experience there, but I’m just not sure if he’ll be as good at tackle as he is at guard. (SR) Justin Anderson played a lot at right tackle in 2008 as a redshirt freshman. The next year he was moved to guard. Last season he switched to defensive line. This spring he switched back to right tackle. Again, yes he has experience, yes he was highly touted out of high school, but how good is he really?

The guards this season are sophomores Chris Burnette and Kenarious Gates. They don’t have much experience but could end up being good players. Gates wasn’t highly touted out of high school and was supposed to redshirt last season but ended up burning it and playing in 7 games. Burnette was a good prospect out of high school but injured his knee and will be getting his first game experience this season. Another sophomore, Dallas Lee, is the 6th man and can play center and guard. He has some game experience.

There’s a chance that there could be addition by subtraction on offensive line. Or perhaps new O-line coach Will Friend will make a difference. Maybe even the switch to Joe Tereshinski as strength and condition coach will help. We just have to hope that something works and the Dawgs improve on offensive line this season because it’s been one of the biggest problems the last 3 years.

Defensive Line

When the Dawgs hired Todd Grantham and switched to the 3-4 defense last year, I thought their biggest challenge would be on the front line. In the 3-4, the line has to be made up of big, tough, run-stuffing guys who eat space. The Dawgs just didn’t have the personnel to put that kind of line out on the field (that was one of the reasons that Justin Anderson attempted to make the switch to NT). Georgia was actually better than I expected against the rush last year but there was no true NT. This season they will hopefully be stronger up front despite having to replace starter Demarcus Dobbs.

Big Jonathan Jenkins, a 6-4 340 pounder was recruited out of JC specifically to fill the NT position. Jenkins won’t begin the year as the #1 NT, but hopefully he will be a big help. Kwame Geathers had a solid year at NT as a freshman and will begin the year as the starter. He had a tremendous spring. The DE’s are (JR) Arby Jones and (SR) DeAngelo Tyson. Jones has been a solid player the last two years and started 6 games last year. Tyson, like many other players on the team, is a guy who hasn’t really proven himself at this level yet but has the talent to be a difference maker. Coming out of high school he was one of the most highly touted DE’s in the country, but he didn’t really play much his first two seasons. He was a fixture in the starting lineup last season but was having to play a lot at NT. This season he will be the full time DE in the 3-4 and could finally shine.

This Dawgs should be fairly stout up front. Depth may be an issue but there are some talented younger guys who could step up this season if anyone goes down. Garrison Smith and Derrick Lott are DE’s who will backup Jones and Tyson.

Linebackers

This is the unit that is the biggest concern heading into the season. Clearly the loss of Justin Houston is enormous. Houston was an absolute menace as a pass rusher and was also a very good all around defender. Starting ILB Akeem Dent is also gone, along with Darryl Gamble and Marcus Dowtin. (JR) Cornelius Washington returns at one OLB position and he is solid. (SO) Jarvis Jones is a transfer from USC and will start at the other OLB position.

(JR) Christian Robinson will man one of the ILB spots. Robinson is probably UGA’s best linebacker. (SO) Alec Ogletree had a very solid season at strong safety as a freshman but he will be moving to ILB this season. Hopefully he’ll be able to make the transition well. There are some talented guys who will begin the year backing up the starters at outside linebacker, but there isn’t a lot of experience. Ray Drew was very highly touted as a pass rushing linebacker but he is a true freshman. (SO) TJ Strippling was also highly touted out of high but knee injuries have held him back to this point. Depth at inside linebacker would appear to be a major concern, as experience and obvious talent are lacking. Still, the Dawgs linebackers have been disappointing lately and maybe this unit will surprise.

Secondary

Georgia’s secondary has been a major weakness in recent years. Last year it was a major question mark and early on it looked like the Dawgs would spend another year getting torched. They began the year with (SR) Vance Cuff starting at corner and JC transfer Jakar Hamilton at safety. This was a major problem. I knew Cuff couldn’t hang but I had hopes for Hamilton because he was one of the more sought after JC players. That hope was dashed early on. I hate to be overly critical of Bulldawgs, but those two players will forever standout in my mind because they were clear indications of how far this thing had slipped. Cuff was simply put not anywhere near the sort of athlete Georgia once had playing the most athletic position on the field. Whatever Hamilton’s athletic abilities, he was one of the worst “football players” I’ve ever seen starting for the Bulldogs. He had no idea how to tackle and was clueless in terms of technique and intelligence.

Things got a lot better when Sanders Commings and Shawn Williams moved into the starting lineup. In the end, Georgia’s secondary was better than expected last year. This season Commings and Williams will be the starting safeties. Georgia’s best overall defensive back is safety Bacarri Rambo, but he isn’t starting and it’s unclear whether he is being disciplined or whether his eligibility is in question. At the moment the coaches aren’t talking and Rambo has been banned from talking with the media. He hasn’t been getting first team snaps in practice. Rambo should eventually a major part of the secondary, but it’s good to have depth at safety because his violent style of play leads to frequent injuries.

The Dawgs have a pair of athletically gifted corners in (Sr) Brandon Boykin and (JR) Branden Smith. Boykin is a very good defender, while Smith struggles with technique. There’s not much experience but plenty of talent behind the starters in the secondary. Damian Swann is a true freshman but was highly touted as a DB out of high school. The Dawgs need to tackle better in the secondary and cause more turnovers but they should be solid this season.

Special Teams

Without question the Dawgs have a major strength in special teams. It may well be the best special teams unit in the country. Drew Butler and Blair Walsh form the best K/P combo in the country. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Walsh won the Lou Groza Award and Drew won the Ray Guy Award. Long snapper Ty Frix also returns this season. The Dawgs also have Boykin back as one of the best kick returners in the country and Smith back as one of the top punt returners. Kickoffs have been a concern at times over the last few years but Walsh was much better last year. The Dawgs had a down year in terms of blocking punts and kicks last season but hopefully they will improve on that this season.

Season Outlook

We’re going to find out quickly what this Georgia team is made of, as the season opens with the showdown against Boise State at the Dome, and the following week the Dawgs host SEC East favorite South Carolina, who beat them last season. This will be the toughest portion of the Dawgs’ schedule, so while an 0-2 start would crush a lot of optimism, Georgia could still come back from it and have a better year than the last two.

On the other hand, if the Dawgs win both games it could be the start of a magical season. The 3 road conference games (at Mississippi, at Tennessee, at Vanderbilt) are all highly winnable games, and the Dawgs get Mississippi State at home. Coastal Carolina and New Mexico State are guarantees (or if they aren’t, than we should probably just stop right now).

If Kentucky’s performance at home against Western Kentucky and Auburn’s performance against Utah State at home are any indication, the Dawgs should be able to beat both of those squads at home. That leaves at GT and the ever painful trip to Jacksonville. I don’t know what to expect from Florida this season, but I do know that it’s going to be hard for me to ever expect the Dawgs to beat the Gators until I’ve seen them do it a few more times. As for Tech, we’d better win. \

Not very much is expected from the Dawgs this season, but the funny thing about expectations is that it doesn’t seem to make mediocrity taste any better to Georgia fans. UGA’s been mediocre for the last two years (12-12 against FBS schools) and they need to be better than that this year or else patience may be lost amongst the faithful. Good luck, boys.

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