Last Week’s Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 7-3; Vs. Spread: 7-2-1)
Overall (Straight Up: 36-9; Vs. Spread: 27-17-1; Moneyline Upsets: 2-1)
Season Record
Biggest 10 Games (Straight Up: 13-7; Vs. Spread: 10-9-1)
Overall (Straight Up: 69-16; Vs. Spread: 47-37-1; Moneyline Upsets: 3-2)
Week 2 Review: Well look, I’m not going to complain about my numbers in week 2. It was a nice rebound from a mediocre at best opening week. Of course things could have been better. What if the Dawgs hadn’t missed that chip shot FG in the first half against South Carolina? For that matter, what if Melvin Ingram had quit the program after getting only 2 starts in his first 4 seasons at South Carolina (redshirted 2008)?
The most stunning outcome of week 2 for me was Minnesota falling at home to New Mexico State. I wouldn’t have been quite as surprised if the Gophers hadn’t nearly won at USC in week 1, although I would have been pretty startled regardless of how they played in the opener. I mean, NMS had lost their last 15 road games against anyone other than New Mexico. I don’t say this to sound callous, but I must ask: did the loss occur due to Jerry Kill having a seizure or was it the other way around?
Finally, I guess I was slightly relieved when I realized that the controversial ending to the Utah-USC game had no affect what so ever on my record. I didn’t want to have to get into that whole thing. When we first heard that the points had been taken off the board, I was thinking that it might have been the difference between me winning or losing that pick of USC covering the 9.5 point spread. However, I hadn’t factored in that no matter what happened, they still wouldn’t have kicked the extra point, so I would have either lost by a half point or by 6.5 points. My W-L record aside, I was quite pleased to learn that the ruling had somehow been overruled after the final gun. I still don’t know quite what happened but I’m relieved that we still haven’t seen the first official case of points being taken off the board for an “unsportsmanlike” penalty.
Week 3 Preview: In my opinion this is the best week of the college football season so far. We can start with the two blockbuster intraconference battles of week 3: Ohio State at Miami and Oklahoma at FSU. The former will be intriguing for both its on-field and off-field story lines; the latter could very well determine which team goes undefeated and reaches the BCS National Title Game, and which team goes 11-1 and finishes #3 in the final BCS standings. That’s not an exaggeration.
Also this week we have a handful of other decent intraconference matchups (Auburn at Clemson; Michigan State at Notre Dame; Arizona State at Illinois; West Virginia at Maryland; Texas at UCLA) and some very big interconfernence matchups (LSU at Mississippi State; Tennessee at Florida; Stanford at Arizona).
Finally we have a slew of interstate grudge matches, some historic, some underappreciated (Louisville at Kentucky; Utah at BYU; EM at Michigan; Penn State at Temple; CM at WM; CSU at Colorado; Akron at Cincinnati; CF at FIU; Oklahoma State at Tulsa).
Thursday
Game 1: LSU (-3) @ Mississippi State
Pick: LSU covers
Comment: If I was Miss State I would be annoyed by the schedule. They had a tough conference slate opener at Auburn on Saturday, and they have to come right back and play LSU on Thursday night. The Tigers played last Saturday as well, but they went up against Northwestern State of the FCS at home. Jordan Jefferson is still suspended for the foreseeable future and Russell Shepard won’t be back until next week. QB Jordan Lee is also a bit banged up, so Zach Mettenberger could find himself playing a key role in this one.
The Tigers have won 11 straight vs. Miss State by an average score of 39-13. This is obviously a huge game for both squads. LSU has their sights set on an SEC West title, an SEC title, and a BCS title. The Maroon Dogs suffered a tough conference loss last week, but they still have a shot at a great season. If they fall to 0-2 in the SEC right off the bat, however, with road games against Arkansas and UGA, and home games against Alabama and South Carolina to come, they could be in for a disappointing season record wise.
Saturday
Game 2: Auburn (+3) @ Clemson
Pick: Auburn pulls off the upset
Comment: This is one of the most interesting games of the week in my mind because we really don’t yet know how good, bad, or average either one of these teams is. Going into the season, I think many folks expected both Auburn and Clemson to have mediocre years. But then Auburn flirted (heavily) with total humiliation in week 1, needing more than a miracle to survive Utah State at home. And last week Clemson barley got by Wofford at home. Auburn surprised with a victory over Mississippi State last week, and perhaps they will end up being better than expected.
This game has been a nail biter in recent years, but Auburn has won 14 in a row over Clemson (last loss was in 1951). This will be the 4th meeting since 1998, and the last 3 have been decided by 4 points or less. In 2007, Auburn won by 3 points at Clemson. Last year Clemson held a 17-3 lead at the half, but Auburn came from behind to win by 3 points in overtime at home. Many people have likely forgotten that Clemson very nearly derailed Auburn’s national title drive before we even knew it had started. Auburn has won their last 7 road openers.
Game 3: Michigan State (+4.5) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Michigan State pulls off the upset
Comment: Rooting against Notre Dame has been a constant in the lives of so many of us, and in recent years our cups have runneth over. Many of the best moments have come from this rivalry. 9 of the 11 in this series have been decided by single digits, including 4 of the last 6 by 3 points or less.
Last year Michigan State stunned the Irish with a fake FG touchdown pass to win 34-31 in OT. Last year’s game was tied 4 different times.
So far this season MSU hasn’t really played anybody yet. The Irish on the other hand have already suffered a pair of heartbreaking defeats.
The home team has won 3 in a row in this series, but the home team lost the previous 7 before that. MSU has won 3 of the last 4, including blowout wins in 2007 and 2008. The Spartans are also 3-1 ATS over the last 4 in this series. ND is just 13-15 overall in their last 28 home games.
Game 4: Tennessee (+9.5) @ Florida
Pick: Tennessee beats the spread
Comment: This spread surprised me a bit at first, until I remembered the recent history of this rivalry game. UT beat Cincinnati handedly at home last week, while Florida has demolished a pair of weak FBS teams so far this season.
This annual early season matchup used to be a de facto SEC East Championship Game, and was often a matchup of top 10 teams. Tennessee has fallen off over the last decade, and Florida is trying to rebuild after the departure of Urban Meyer.
The Gators have owned this one in recent years, winning 6 straight (series high), and the last 4 by double digits. The Gators have been favored in the last 6 and have gone 4-2 ATS. The Gators have won 3 straight over the Vols in Gainesville.
Tennessee is just 3-9 in their last 12 SEC road games (and 2 of those wins were at Vandy). The Volunteers are 7-3 ATS as road underdogs over the last 3 years, and 10-4 ATS on the road overall over the last 3 years.
Controlling the game on the ground has been a key in this matchup, as the team that held the rushing yards edge has won 20 of the last 21 in this series (from Phil Steele).
Game 5: Washington (+17) @ Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska covers
Comment: Boring. This is the 3rd time these two have met in the last year. Nebraska went to Seattle and routed the Huskies early last season, with Taylor Martinez leading the offense to 56 points. Then the two teams got matched up against each other in the Holliday Bowl.
You won’t believe this, but after Nebraska lost the Big XII Championship Game by 3 points (after losing by 1 point a year before) and got relegated to the Holliday Bowl for the 2nd year in a row, the 10-3 Cornhuskers weren’t all that fired up to play a 6-6 Washington team that they had already defeated on the road by 35 points.
Washington had needed 3 consecutive wins (including a win over Cal on the last play of the game and a victory in the Apple Cup over Washington State) just to get bowl eligible, and the Huskies were thrilled to get Jake Locker to a bowl in his last chance. They were even thrilled to get a chance to avenge the blowout loss to Nebraska.
I know this will come as a total shock, but Washington actually had a huge mental and emotional edge in the bowl game, winning 19-7. So, yeah, we get a rubber match, this time at Lincoln.
The Huskies are 1-8 in their last 9 road openers and just 13-39 on the road over the last 10 years. They are 17-26-1 ATS as a road dog over the last 10 years. This season Nebraska hasn’t been that impressive, and they actually had a hard time putting Fresno State away at home last week.
Washington has been even less impressive, winning by just 3 points at home against Eastern Washington in week 1, and then winning 40-32 at home against Hawaii last week. Going back to last season, Washington has won 6 in a row overall (5-1 ATS). The Cornhuskers are just 2-6 ATS over their last 8 games going back to last season.
Game 6: Arizona State (+1.5) @ Illinois
Pick: Arizona State pulls off the upset
Comment: Another interesting little out of conference game for ASU. They usually play a bunch of “creampuffs” during the early part of the season, but last week they fought off Mizzu in OT at home, and now they go to play Illinois.
The Sun Devils are only 18-33 on the road over the last 10 years, and just 4-12 on the road over the last 3 years. As a road dog, the Sun Devils are 13-22-1 ATS over the last 10 years, despite being 6-1 ATS as a road dog just last season. ASU is banged up but they would appear to be the more talented team.
Game 7: Louisville (+6) @ Kentucky
Pick: Kentucky covers
Comment: I think they’re calling this one the Governor’s Cup, which is lame and unoriginal. Why not, “The Battle for the Bluegrass State?” It’s not that hard people.
Kentucky is a weird state. It’s not exactly southern, but isn’t really Midwestern either. Kentucky borders Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. That’s a lot of seemingly diverse influences. As far as sports are concerned, you know about the Kentucky Derby and Louisville Slugger, but Kentucky is decidedly a basketball state. The winner of this game may never be as important as the feud over Rick Pitino taking the job at Louisville, but it has gotten better in recent years.
This season neither team is looking too hot. Louisville struggled to beat Murray State 21-9 in the season opener, and then last week they lost on Thursday night to FIU at home. Kentucky struggled mightily against Western Kentucky in the opener before pulling away late to win 14-3. Then last week they again struggled early on against Central Michigan at home before eventually winning it 27-13. Neither team has looked good offensively.
The Wildcats have won 4 straight in this series after Louisville had gained the upper hand under Bobby Petrino. Winning the rushing battle has been key in this series as well, as the leader in rushing yards has won the last 15 (from Phil Steele). Joker Phillips and Charlie Strong are friends who were groomed under Lou Holtz. Strong has been downplaying his team’s chances of winning this week in hopes of working a Jedi mind trick against his old friend. 2 starters on the offensive line are doubtful for Kentucky.
Game 8: Ohio State (+2.5) @ Miami
Pick: Ohio State pulls off the upset
Comment: This is one of the two blockbuster matchups of the weekend, although it really probably isn’t a true blockbuster. The story of the suspensions and program sanctions is bigger than the on the field story (or at least the coverage will insist that it be that way). With both teams depleted of key players, neither one of these teams is truly elite.
The Buckeyes barley survived at home against Toledo last week, and Miami lost its only game of the year so far this season at Maryland in week 1. Last year’s game was in Columbus and the Buckeyes allowed Miami to stay in the game by giving up a PR TD and a KR TD. Jacory Harris turned in a typical day, firing 4 picks to help Ohio State seal the 36-24 win.
Despite the clouds raining and continuing to hang over Ohio State, the Buckeyes are still 20-1 overall over their last 21 games. They are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28. Miami was off last week, but the Canes have lost 4 in a row going back to last season (0-4 ATS) and they are just 2-8 ATS over their last 10.
Both teams will still be without a number of key players. Miami will be missing a starting RT, WR, DE, and SS. Their starting TE is doubtful with an undisclosed injury. Ohio State will still be without their starting DE, LT, WR, and RB. 4 suspended players should be back for Miami, and 3 should be back for Ohio State. This game will be played at Joe Robbie (or whatever they’re calling that place nowadays).
Game 9: Oklahoma (-3) @ Florida State
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: This is the true blockbuster of the weekend, and it rivals Oregon vs. LSU as the biggest matchup of the season so far. Oklahoma smoked Tulsa 47-14 in week 1 and was idle last week. FSU has won 2 games over “cupcakes.”
Last year’s game was played in Norman and was dominated from the start by the Sooners. They led 44-7 in the 4th and went on to win 47-17. Oklahoma is just 8-7 over the last 2 years in non-home games. FSU is just 5-17 in their last 17 against top 10 opponents (from Phil Steele).
Going back to last season, Oklahoma has won 6 straight (5-1 ATS), while FSU has won 6 of 7. The Sooners are just 2-6 ATS as road favorites over the last 2 years. FSU will be a home underdog for just the 5th time over the last 10 years (2-2 ATS in previous 4).
Game 10: Utah (+4.5) @ BYU
Pick: Utah beats the spread
Comment: Sadly, the Holy War will no longer be played in its traditional spot in the last week of the MWC regular season. This game has been the last regular season game for these two teams in 20 of the last 21 years (not in 2001 due to rescheduling of earlier games postponed by 9/11). This will be the 87th meeting (played every year since 1946) and the first time the two teams will not be in the same conference. Utah dominated this series over the first 50 games or so and the Utes still hold a 51-31-4 edge in the all-time series.
This rivalry game has been decided by 7 points or less in 12 of the last 14. The home team has won 4 straight. The Utes are 5-2 ATS in this matchup over the last 7 years.
BYU has played a pair of nail biters so far, coming from behind to win on the road at Mississippi in week 1, and coming from ahead to lose by a point at Texas last Saturday. Utah won 27-10 over Montana State in week 1. Last week they had a game tying FG attempt blocked and returned for a TD on the final play of the game at USC, as they lost 23-14.
Last year Utah trailed 13-0 in the 4th, but the Utes came from behind to take a 17-16 lead and blocked a FG attempt to secure the 1-point win.
Other Games
Friday
Iowa State (+4) @ Connecticut (Iowa St. beats the spread)
Boise State (-19.5) @ Toledo (Boise State covers)
Saturday
West Virginia (+1) @ Maryland (WV pulls off the upset)
Eastern Michigan (+29.5) @ Michigan (Michigan covers)
Wyoming (+8.5) @ Bowling Green (BG covers)
Penn State (-7.5) @ Temple (PSU covers)
Pittsburgh (+3) @ Iowa (Iowa covers)
Central Michigan (+8.5) @ Western Michigan (CM beats the spread)
Mississippi (-1.5) @ Vanderbilt (Vandy pulls off the upset)
Kansas (+14) @ Georgia Tech (GT covers)
Duke (+7) @ Boston College (Duke beats the spread)
Colorado State (+7.5) @ Colorado (CSU beats the spread)
Louisiana-Monroe (+29) @ TCU (ULM beats the spread)
Texas (-3.5) @ UCLA (Texas covers)
Virginia (+10) @ North Carolina (UVA beats the spread)
Texas Tech (-20) @ New Mexico (Texas Tech covers)
Northwestern (-8.5) @ Army (NW covers)
Miami (Ohio) (+5) @ Minnesota (Miami (OH) beats the spread)
Northern Illinois (+16.5) @ Wisconsin (Wisconsin covers)
Akron (+34.5) @ Cincinnati (Cincinnati covers)
Nevada (-6.5) @ San Jose State (Nevada covers)
Arkansas State (+24) @ Virginia Tech (VT covers)
Tulane (+13) @ UAB (Tulane beats the spread)
Central Florida (-5) @ Florida International (FIU beats the spread)
Navy (+17.5) @ South Carolina (SC covers)
Washington State (+5.5) @ San Diego State (Wash St. beats the spread)
Idaho (+35.5) @ Texas A&M (A&M covers)
Houston (-7) @ Louisiana Tech (Houston covers)
Kent State (+17.5) @ Kansas State (Kent State beats the spread)
Buffalo (+5) @ Ball State (BSU covers)
Marshall (+3) @ Ohio (Marshall pulls off the upset)
Troy (+22.5) @ Arkansas (Arkansas covers)
North Texas (+45.5) @ Alabama (Alabama covers)
Syracuse (+16.5) @ USC (Cuse beats the spread)
UTEP (+3) @ New Mexico State (NMS covers)
Hawaii (-20) @ UNLV (Hawaii covers)
Oklahoma State (-13) @ Tulsa (Oklahoma State covers)
Stanford (-9.5) @ Arizona (Stanford covers)
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