Season Résumé Rankings after Week 4
1. LSU 4-0 (NR)
2. Alabama 4-0 (1st)
3. Oklahoma State 4-0 (2nd)
4. Boise State 3-0 (NR)
5. Oklahoma 3-0 (NR)
6. South Carolina 4-0 (8th)
7. Florida 4-0 (4th)
8. Michigan 4-0 (7th)
9. Clemson 4-0 (NR)
10. Virginia Tech 4-0 (NR)
Out: Stanford (3rd); Wisconsin (5th); Florida International (6th); Texas (9th); Houston (10th).
Explanation: Last week I told you I was in the process of coming up with a more scientific formula for these rankings and I thought it would be ready for this week. I miscalculated. This isn’t a new problem, and it’s probably the main reason I have yet to come up with a mathematic formula to determine which team’s résumé is the best. I just don’t think I’m smart enough for the job.
I was highly distracted by the Braves’ collapse again this week, but when I did spend time trying to figure out a formula the early results were not very promising. For now (and probably forever) I’m going to scrap the idea of coming up with some sort of mathematical system. However, I have made some significant changes to my usual method of coming up with these rankings. The changes are drastic enough to make it basically a completely different formula (non-mathematical of course).
It may seem unfortunate that I’ve decided to make these changes 4 weeks into the year rather than at the start of the season, but that’s really a non-issue because these rankings are only just now becoming useful anyway. Very early in the season you are still relying on reputation and preconceived notions. Plus, when 30 or so teams have yet to play a quality opponent you’re going to end up with strange results (such as an SBC team being 6th in the rankings last week). 4 weeks is about enough time for these rankings to be somewhat relevant.
Anyway, the changes I made mostly address the 2 main problems I’ve had in coming up with these rankings: dealing with games against FCS opponents and dealing with the fact that the numbers of games played by each team are never totally equal. As far as games against FCS opponents, I’ve decided to ignore them for the most part. An unimpressive performance against an FCS opponent—or (of course) a loss to an FCS team--will be counted against a team’s résumé, but when looking at W-L records I’m going to be looking at games against FBS teams.
This might not be the best way to do it but I think it’s the most sensible way for me. Clearly, not all FCS teams are the same. Wins by Appalachian State and James Madison have shown us that some FCS teams are more than capable of putting up a fight against even some of the biggest BCS teams.
On the other hand, you have teams like Tennessee Tech, Idaho State, and Coastal Carolina—the 3 FCS teams that my Bulldawgs have played over the last 3 years. Since the start of the 2009 season, the Dawgs are 13-14 overall against FBS opponents, outscoring them 790-710, for an average score of 29.3-26.3. During that same time they are 3-0 against FCS opponents, outscoring them 152-7, for an average score of 50.7-2.3. My point here is surely obvious.
While not all FCS teams are pushovers, most of them are not able to stay in the game against the majority of FBS teams, and even the stronger FCS teams almost always come up short against the weakest FBS teams. Thus, for teams in these rankings, the only thing helpful about blowout wins over FCS teams will be that they aren’t close wins or losses against FCS teams, and therefore won’t hurt you.
Moving on, I’m not going to separate teams based on the number of games played as I often have in the past. For example, after week 7, I’m not going to automatically place a 6-0 team behind all the 7-0 teams. I may use an extra win as a tie-breaker between 2 otherwise equal résumés, but that will be about it. I’m going to be looking at the quality of wins and the number of quality wins more than purely the number of wins of any kind.
While losses are still clearly going to be the biggest difference makers in these rankings (simply because most great college football teams only lose once or twice all season), I’m not automatically putting undefeated teams ahead of 1-loss teams or 1-loss teams ahead of 2-loss teams and so on. I never have done this, but I usually end up ranking undefeated teams ahead of 1-loss teams simply because doing it that way makes it easier and quicker to determine these rankings. This year I’m going to try and avoid taking the easy route. You will notice that all of the teams in my top 10 are still undefeated this week, and it will likely be that way for some time, as teams who have lost simply haven’t played enough games yet to be able to amass enough quality wins to rank higher than teams who haven’t lost.
Now on to this week’s edition. The rankings went through some drastic changes, in part due to the new system, but mostly due to the fact that it’s still really early. All of the spots in the top 10 changed this week, with 5 teams falling out and 5 new teams taking their place. Of the teams remaining in the top 10, Florida took the biggest drop, falling 3 spots, while South Carolina made the biggest climb, moving up 2 spots. Obviously, however, the team making the biggest jump was LSU, as they came from outside the rankings to #1, knocking off Alabama. Stanford took the biggest fall, dropping out of the rankings from #3.
1. LSU: 4-0 (won at West Virginia, 47-21). LSU got another quality win last Thursday night and thus comes from out of the rankings to #1 this week. The Tigers have 3 wins away from home, all 3 have been over quality opponents, and all 3 have come by at least 13 points.
2. Alabama: 4-0 (won vs. Arkansas, 38-14). Despite blowing out a solid opponent in Arkansas to move to 4-0 against FBS teams, Bama falls out of the top spot and drops to #2 this week. Bama has a pair of very good wins, including 1 on the road, and they’ve won handedly against each team they’ve faced.
3. Oklahoma State: 4-0 (won at Texas A&M, 30-29). It doesn’t seem to make sense that the team collecting the single biggest victory in week 4 would then move down in these rankings, but that’s what happened to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys went to College Station and defeated Texas A&M to move to 4-0, but Alabama also had a great win and thus stayed ahead of them.
Oklahoma State has 4 wins against FBS teams, while LSU has only 3 wins against FBS teams, but this week I did away with the automatic separating of teams based on number of wins/number of wins vs. FBS teams. LSU’s 3 wins over FBS teams are simply more impressive as a whole than Okie State’s 4 wins over FBS teams. But to be clear, the Cowboys have a super résumé through 4 weeks, with a couple of road wins over quality opponents, particularly A&M.
4. Boise State: 3-0 (won vs. Tulsa, 41-21). Boise State joins the rankings at #4 this week. The Broncos got their 3rd win of the season last Saturday, and all 3 of their wins have been against quality opponents and have come by 14 or more points.
5. Oklahoma: 3-0 (won vs. Missouri, 38-28). Oklahoma moves back into the rankings at #5 this week. The Sooners beat a quality Mizzu team for their 3rd victory of the season last Saturday. All 3 of Oklahoma’s wins have been against quality opponents and they have won all 3 games by double digits.
6. South Carolina: 4-0 (won vs. Vanderbilt, 21-3). South Carolina made the biggest rise of any team remaining in the top 10 this week, climbing 2 spots to #6. The Gamecocks won 21-3 over a previously undefeated Vandy team to move to 4-0 against FBS teams. For South Carolina it is really more about having 4 quality wins than it is about them having been all that impressive, although they do have a road win over Georgia.
7. Florida: 4-0 (won at Kentucky, 48-10). Florida whipped a conference opponent by 38 points on the road last Saturday, but they ended up taking the biggest fall of any team remaining in the top 10, as they dropped 3 spots to #7. The Gators are 4-0 against FBS teams and they have won all 4 games by double digits, but their only quality win is against Tennessee at home by 10 points. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to get bigger and better wins in the coming weeks, but they’ll also have plenty of opportunities to lose.
8. Michigan: 4-0 (won vs. San Diego State, 28-7). Michigan drops a spot to #8 this week, despite beating San Diego State by 3 TD’s to move to 4-0 against FBS teams. Michigan has a solid résumé so far, but they’ve played all 4 games at home, and their best win is a miraculous victory over ND.
9. Clemson: 4-0 (Won vs. Florida State, 35-30). Clemson moves into the rankings at #9. The Tigers defeated a banged up FSU team at home to move to 3-0 vs. FBS teams. Clemson’s wins over Troy and Wofford (by just 8 points) at home are not too impressive, but they have won back to back big games over Auburn and Florida State.
10. Virginia Tech: 4-0 (won at Marshall, 30-10). Virginia Tech moves into the rankings at #10 this week. The Hokies are 3-0 against FBS teams, but their closest thing to a quality win is a7-point victory at ECU.
Teams Falling Out of the Rankings
Stanford: 3-0 (Idle). Stanford was off last week and it cost them a lot in these rankings, as they fell out of the rankings from #3. Big wins by other teams, as well as the fact that the season is still very young led to this happening.
Wisconsin: 4-0 (won vs. South Dakota, 59-10). Wisconsin had another blowout victory last week but it came against an FCS opponent, and the Badgers ended up falling out of my rankings from #5. Wisconsin has destroyed the competition, but they have yet to play a real road game, and they don’t yet have a truly quality win. In fact, the closest thing the Badgers have to a quality victory is a beat down of NIU in Chicago.
Florida International: 3-1 (lost vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, 31-36). FIU would have fallen out of the rankings even if they had beaten ULL 108-0, but the loss at home to the Ragin’ Cajuns surely didn’t help, as the Golden Panthers dropped out of my rankings from #6.
Texas: 3-0 (Idle). Texas did not play in week 4 and thus fell out of my rankings from #9. The Longhorns have played a fairly light schedule, and have yet to really destroy anyone. Their best win so far is a 1-point victory over BYU at home (note: the Cougars were massacred at home by Utah the following week).
Houston: 4-0 (won vs. Georgia State, 56-0). Houston won 56-nil over GSU last week, but had the score been doubled they still would not have remained in the top 10, as they fell out of the rankings from #10. Houston has won twice on the road, but their closest thing to a quality win at this point is a 4-point home victory over UCLA. Just to be clear, that’s actually not very close to being a quality win, which is sort of the point here.
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