The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 9 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (4-8); Straight Up (7-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (57-57-1); Straight Up (76-39)

Week 8 Review: An awful week for me. I’m back to .500 ATS for the year. 7-5 straight up is unacceptable.

Week 9 Preview: Should be a better week for me. It can’t get much worse than last week.

Sunday’s Early Games

Washington (+10) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons win but Redskins beat the spread
Comment: Believe it or not, for a true Falcons fan like myself this is a scary game. It’s a bit of a trap. The Falcons just lost back to back games on the road against good teams. They look like a good team but they’re just 4-3. They played their asses off for 60 minutes against the Saints in a hostile environment and on the biggest regular season stage in sports and they came up just a little bit short. Now they have to come back on a short week and get ready to play a much maligned Redskins team that is coming off of a bye week and has heard pretty much all year long about how much they suck. The Falcons can’t help but here some of that talk too. And it’s never really been the Washington defense that has been the problem. The offense has been terrible but they’ve had two weeks to get better under a new OC. Meanwhile, the Falcons are a little banged up and they are not exactly the deepest team to begin with. They’ll have to fight off fatigue and it’ll be tough to avoid coming out flat and being a little out of it early on. The Falcons knew going into the season that their schedule was going to be tougher this year. There are a number of winnable games left but they can’t afford to lose any of them. I think the Falcons are going to get it done this Sunday but I’m not confident enough to predict a double digit victory.

Arizona (+3) @ Chicago
Pick: Bears cover
Comment: Any time these two teams go up against each other you have to think about Dennis Green. Even if you don’t immediately think of it you will surely be reminded of it at some point this week unless you totally avoid ESPN which is hard for a sports fan to do. But this isn’t just an excuse to reference the phrase “they are who we thought they were.” The Cardinals and Bears won’t let that phrase die because it can be used so often to describe both teams. Over the past season and a half the Cardinals have gone back and forth from contender to pretender more times than any other team in all of football (except for possible the Jets). Two weeks ago they were looking like a contender again after knocking off the Giants on the road. Then last week they got hammered at home by Carolina. Back to pretender. The Bears have been inconsistent for as long as I’ve been watching football and especially in the last decade or so. Under Dick Jauron they were rarely mediocre. They were either really good or absolutely awful. Under Lovie Smith they’ve rarely been either really good or really bad. For the most part they’ve been somewhere in between and they are again this season. One of the weirdest stats of the season so far is that the Cardinals are 1-3 at home and 3-0 on the road. This is a team that went 12-4 at home and 5-11 on the road over the previous two seasons. I think that’s a bit of a fluke. The Bears are 3-0 at home this season, 11-2 in their last 13 at home, and 32-9 in their last 41 at home. I’ll take the Bears to win because they are at home and the Cards are traveling. It’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take Chi-town to cover.

Baltimore (-3) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: The Ravens came off a bye week and snapped their bizarre 3 game skid by blowing out the Broncos last week. The Bengals got a huge win over the Bears two weeks ago to get back on track and now they are coming off of a bye and hosting the Ravens. Back in week 5, the Bengals caught the Ravens off guard and won 17-14 in Baltimore. I don’t think Baltimore will be surprised this time and Cinci no longer has difference maker Antwan Odom. Baltimore has had trouble in Cinci over the years but they’ve been a good road team under John Harbaugh. It’s a strange thought—because these two teams have clearly been among the best in the NFL so far this season—but this is almost a must win game for both of them. It’s not quite as huge a game for the Bengals because they have a better record than the Ravens, they’ve already beaten them once this year, and they have the easier schedule. But this would be a third loss at home this year and they’d have road trips to Pittsburgh, Minnesota, San Diego, and the Jets left on their schedule. For the Ravens this is a very important game. If they lose this one they will be 4-4 and basically 3 games behind the Bengals due to the head-to-head tie breaker. Assuming a win against the Browns in week 10, the Ravens would be 5-4 heading into a rough 3 game stretch against the Colts, Steelers, and at Green Bay. Another game against the Steelers, this one on the road, would lie ahead. The Ravens need it more and they will win it. It’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take Baltimore to cover.

Houston (+9) @ Indianapolis
Pick: Colts win but Texans beat the spread
Comment: The Ravens came into the season 3-12 in their last 15 road games. They are 3-1 on the road this season and they’ve won 3 straight overall after opening the season 2-3. The Colts are still perfect but they’ve also played a fairly easy schedule and they have not exactly been dominant. Indy is 13-1 against the Texans since the latest Houston franchise was born in 2002. Last season the Colts swept the Texans as usual but the neither game was decided by more than 6 points. I like the Texans to give the Colts a scare but I think the Colts will remain without a loss for another week.

Kansas City (+6.5) @ Jacksonville
Pick: Jags win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: It’s ridiculous to think that the Jags will be 4-4 if they win this game. They are clearly not good but the Chiefs are just bad. The Chiefs have won once this season and been competitive in a few other games. They’re also coming off of a bye week but I don’t think they’ll be able to pull it off. I see the Jags escaping with another lucky victory.

Green Bay (-9.5) @ Tampa Bay
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: Green Bay was humbled again by the Vikings last week and they’ll be traveling down to Florida for this one. Plus, the Bucs are coming off of a bye. But Tampa is quite possibly the worst team in the NFL in a season in which there are a slew of terrible teams. Tampa has already lost 3 times at home this season and they’re just 1-6 ATS. The Packers have already played 3 games against the dregs of the league this season, playing the Rams and Browns on the road and the Lions at home. They’ve won each of those games by at least 19 points and outscored the opposition 93-20 in those 3 games. I’ll take the Packers to blowout another bad team on Sunday.

Miami (+10.5) @ New England
Pick: Patriots cover
Comment: The Dolphins often play the Patriots tough but that alone isn’t enough to sway me. The Pats have been clicking in recent weeks and they are coming off of a bye week. The Dolphins continue to be far and away the luckiest team in the NFL on a weekly basis but I expect the Pats to win in a rout.

Sunday’s Late Games

Carolina (+13.5) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: The Saints are hard to beat. Carolina had a huge win in Arizona last week but the Saints are a different animal. I think New Orleans wins by at least 2 TD’s.

Detroit (+10) @ Seattle
Pick: Seahawks cover
Comment: The Seahawks are 2-5 on the season and only 1 of their games has been decided by less than 13 points (a 6 point loss at home to the Bears in week 3). The Lions are awful, Matt Hasselbeck is playing for the Seahawks, and Seattle is a tough place to play. Detroit actually lost at home to the Rams by 7 last week. The Seahawks have shutout wins over the Rams and Jags at home this season and I see another blowout win coming against the Lions at home this Sunday.

San Diego (+4.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants cover
Comment: The Chargers haven’t been bad this season but they’ve been far from impressive. They are 4-3 but 3 of their wins are against the Raiders and Chiefs. I don’t know what to make of the Giants. They’ve lost 3 straight, 2 of those by 21 points or more, and 4 of their 5 wins came against the Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs, and Raiders. The Giants are the more desperate team here and the Chargers have to fly across the country for this one. I’ll take the G-Men to snap their skid and win by 6 or 7.

Tennessee (+4) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: I’m conflicted about the Titans. I’d like to see them go on a run because I think they are a decent team but I just can’t pull for Vince Young. The Niners gave the Colts a scare in Indy last week and if they can bring that type of effort again this week they should beat the Titans by at least a TD.

Sunday Night’s Game

Dallas (+3) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: This game always has meaning because it’s a big rivalry. Dallas is looking to prove that they are contenders. For one of the few times in the last 20 years, the Cowboys may have actually been underrated this year. Philly needs to keep it going and pushing that debacle against the Raiders further into the past. I’ll take the Eagles because they are at home and it’s a 3 point spread so I’ll just take them to cover.

Monday Night’s Game

Pittsburgh (-3) @ Denver
Pick: Broncos pull off the upset
Comment: This might be a surprising pick, as the Broncos were hammered by the Ravens last week and the Steelers are coming off of a bye and have won 4 in a row. But the Broncos convinced me that they were a great team over the first 6 weeks of the season and it’s going to take more than 1 week to convince me otherwise. It’s going to be cold in Denver come Monday night but that place is going to be on fire. I like the Broncos to pull out a tight one at home.