The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 13 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (3-7); Moneyline Upsets (2-3)
Season: Vs. Spread (44-73-3); Moneyline Upsets (9-26)

Week 12 Review: After the ways things had gone the last few weeks, I was almost relieved to have 3 wins against the spread.

Week 13 Preview: Last year at this time I decided to make rivalry week special and blow out the picks in the final big week of the season. I picked 24 games ATS last season and I’m going to do 25 this time. This could get ugly for me. But it should be a beautiful week of college football…at least until Saturday night.

Thursday

Game 1: Texas (-21) @ Texas A&M
Pick: A&M beats the spread
Comment: This game hasn’t been close that many times in recent years. Texas has won 7 of 10, and all 7 wins have come by at least 11 points. In 2006, Texas was a 14 point favorite at home against the Aggies and A&M knocked the Horns off, 12-7. In 2007, the Aggies were 7 point dogs at home but they upset the Horns for the 2nd year in a row, 38-30. Last season the Horns were favored by 35 at home and they won by 40. Texas should win the game fairly easily, as they have a better offense and an enormous edge defensively. Texas A&M may not stop the Horns all day. It’s hard to know what to make of A&M because their season has had such dramatic swings from week to week. The Aggies have been much better at home. I don’t think there’s much chance of an upset here but 21 points is a fairly big spread. The rivalry, the added pressure on Texas, and the home crowd has me thinking that A&M can stay within 20.

Friday

Game 2: Illinois (+20.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati covers
Comment: Both teams are coming off of byes. Illinois has nothing to play for; Cinci has everything to play for. Illinois will be playing pressure free with a chance for a huge upset. Cincinnati will be playing with a lot of pressure and a win will be expected. The Illini lost their first 6 games against FBS opponents, losing each game by at least 10 points. After back to back wins against Michigan and at Minnesota, Illinois lost at home to NW in their last game. The Bearcats first 8 wins came by at least 8 points; their last 2 wins have come by a combined 5 points. Illinois is 1-3 on the road this year and just 3-7 ATS. The biggest thing for Cinci in my opinion is that they have their senior QB Tony Pike back and healthy enough to play full time. Pike has 17 TD’s and 3 INT this year. The Cats have won 11 straight at home.

Game 3: Northern Illinois (+13) @ Central Michigan
Pick: NIU beats the spread
Comment: Central Mich is the best team in the MAC but this spread seems too big to me. NIU’s 4 losses have all come by 8 points or less, including games at Wisconsin, at Toledo, and at Ohio. They also won at Purdue. CM has won the last 2 meetings but prior to that NIU had won 9 straight. Last year’s game went into OT.

Game 4: Alabama (-10) @ Auburn
Pick: Auburn beats the spread
Comment: I may be getting reeled in by the idea that rivalry games are close. That’s not necessarily the case. Alabama has a major edge in this game defensively. The Tide has bigger things ahead, while the Tigers could turn their season from “pretty good” all the way to “great” with a win. Auburn had a bye last week but Alabama pretty much did too as they played Chattanooga. The Tigers are at home and I think they’ll be inspired. I like Auburn to stay within single digits.

Game 5: Nebraska (-10.5) @ Colorado
Pick: Nebraska covers
Comment: This is a pretty high spread to take with an inconsistent team going on the road. But the Cornhuskers have a huge edge defensively in this game. They should dominate Colorado’s offense. Their have been several upsets in this series recently but I don’t expect one this weekend, or anytime soon for that matter, as long as Hawkins and Son are around.

Game 6: Pittsburgh (+1) @ West Virginia
Pick: Pitt beats the spread
Comment: I love Pitt to win this version of the Back Yard Brawl. Both teams were off last week. West Virginia hasn’t lost at home yet this year but they haven’t really played anyone at home either. I think Pitt will put this game out of reach at some point in the 2nd half.

Game 7: Nevada (+13.5) @ Boise State
Pick: Boise State covers
Comment: After getting off to a dreadful start (3 straight losses by double digits to ND, Colorado State and Missouri), the Wolf Pack has been hot for 2 months, winning 8 straight games, including 7 of those 8 by double digits. The Broncos simply don’t lose at home and they almost never lose in conference, but Nevada could definitely make this one interesting. Boise State has won 9 straight against Nevada but last year’s game was decided by 7 points, and in 07 Nevada took the Broncos to OT on the blue turf before coming up short. This season Boise State is 8-3 ATS, and the Broncos are 38-20 ATS at home this decade. I bet they break it open late.

Saturday

Game 8: Southern Mississippi (+5.5) @ East Carolina
Pick: Southern Miss beats the spread
Comment: This is almost a toss up. I don’t think Southern Miss will beat EC on the road but I think they could stay within 3 or 4. The Golden Eagles are 1-4 on the road this year, while the Pirates are 4-1 at home. Southern Miss has won 7 of 8 vs. EC, going 7-1 ATS in those 8 games.

Game 9: North Carolina (-5.5) @ North Carolina State
Pick: UNC covers
Comment: I really like the Heels in this one, although there have been several upsets in this series in recent years. UNC has big defensive edge. The Wolfpack has lost 6 of 7 and has already lost by 21 at home to Duke and by 20 at home to Clemson. UNC has won 4 straight and has already won at Connecticut, at VT, and at BC this season. The Heels should definitely win by at least a TD.

Game 10: Clemson (-3) @ South Carolina
Pick: Clemson covers
Comment: In a stunning reversal of the last few years, the Tigers are 8-3 ATS this season. They are better than the Cocks on both sides of the ball. Since an embarrassing loss to Maryland, the Tigers have won 6 straight, going 5-1 ATS over that stretch. South Carolina has lost 3 straight and 4 of 5, and their only win during that stretch was a very, very unimpressive 14-10 win over Vandy at home. The Tigers have won 6 of 7 and 8 of 10 in this series. I don’t think The Ol’ Ball Coach has any more rabbits up his sleeve.

Game 11: Mississippi (-7.5) @ Mississippi State
Pick: Mississippi covers
Comment: Last year’s Egg Bowl was a 45-0 spanking of the Maroon Dogs by Mississippi. Mississippi State is just 1-5 at home this year. Mississippi has won their last 3 games and 5 of their last 6. Mississippi is a much better team than Miss State and should win by double digits.

Game 12: Oklahoma State (+8) @ Oklahoma
Pick: Oklahoma State beats the spread
Comment: Bedlam. I think the Sooners will probably pull this one out but I had to take Okie State with 8 points. The Cowboys pulled off back to back stunning upsets of the Sooners in 2001 and 2002 that really put some juice into a rivalry long dominated by Oklahoma. Since then, however, Oklahoma has won 6 straight, going 5-1 ATS in those games, and they’ve won the each of the last 3 at home by at least 28 points. The Sooners have had some rough games recently but they are just a different team at home. Oklahoma is 1-5 in non-home games this year and 5-0 at home. Okie State is 3-0 on the road this season so far. Both teams have been hit by injuries and attrition but the Cowboys have more left than the Sooners and they will have Zac Robinson back for this one. I think they’ll keep it close.

Game 13: New Mexico (+45) @ TCU
Pick: TCU covers
Comment: This is a huge spread. New Mexico is getting better but they still suck. The Horned Frogs can put up 50 on the Lobos and New Mexico may not score at all. TCU is 8-3 ATS this year while the Lobos are 4-7 ATS. The Horned Frogs have covered in 6 straight games.

Game 14: Missouri (-3) vs. Kansas
Pick: Missouri covers
Comment: This line opened at 3.5 but Mark Mangino ate the half point. It’ll be interesting to see if the Jayhawks play inspired ball for the Fat Man this weekend. Both teams have a key offensive player out this week. Kansas is an awful 2-8 ATS this year but they have pulled off several upsets in the recent history of this Border War. Still, the Jayhawks have dropped 6 straight, 4 of those by at least 14 points, while the Tigers have won 3 of 4, with all 3 wins coming by double digits. Kansas has lost their last 8 ATS. Yikes. Things have gotten ugly in the other Manhattan pretty quickly.

Game 15: Virginia Tech (-16) @ Virginia
Pick: Virginia beats the spread
Comment: This line was originally 13.5 and I was going to take the Hokies but the line moved a lot and I’m just not going to take VT with a huge spread again this year. The Cavaliers are 1-5 at home this year and they’ve lost 5 straight overall. VT has dominated this series recently, winning 9 of 10, including the last 5, going 4-1 ATS in the last 5. The Hokies are clearly better in all areas but I just can’t stand to take them -16, see them build a 21-0 lead, and then watch them end up winning 24-10.

Game 16: Florida State (+24) @ Florida
Pick: Florida covers
Comment: Obviously this is a big spread and Florida hasn’t been great at covering big spreads so far this season. But FSU is lucky to be 6-5. The Noles are 3-8 ATS this season, 0-6 ATS on the road, and they are without their best player, who also happens to be their quarterback. The Gators have won 5 straight over Bobby’s team, winning 3 of the last 4 by at least 30. The Gators should dominate. Noles fans should be relieved if Bowden’s last trip to the Swamp does not end in utter humiliation.

Game 17: Miami (-6.5) @ South Florida
Pick: Miami covers
Comment: I’m not overly impressed with either team. I know the South Florida kids will be fired up for this one but the Canes are pretty tough anywhere in the state of Florida. Both teams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. I’ll take Miami by a TD just because I think they are the better team.

Game 18: Arizona (-3) @ Arizona State
Pick: Arizona covers
Comment: I was surprised by this spread at first but there’s actually good reason to think ASU might beat their rivals on Saturday. The Cats are 1-3 on the road, while the Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS at home. Arizona State has won 7 of 10 in this series and they had won 3 straight and 5 of 6 before the losing last year’s game. Despite these things, I have to take Arizona because they are clearly the better team, and with the Rose Bowl dream over with, they have no reason to be focused on anything but beating their in-state rivals.

Game 19: Utah (+7.5) @ BYU
Pick: Utah beats the spread
Comment: The Cougars don’t often lose at home and I’m fairly confident they will beat Utah this weekend but 7.5 points seems like a lot. Utah is actually just 4-7 ATS this year and 1-4 ATS on the road. Those numbers aren’t surprising considering that they’ve been vastly overrated all season. But BYU has not been the team we expected them to be this year either. I think BYU will win but it will be close.

Game 20: Washington State (+24.5) @ Washington
Pick: Washington covers
Comment: First off, let me say that you don’t want to miss this one. The Apple Cup is always memorable. Chances are this one will be wild come the 4th quarter. But you just can’t take Wazu to beat the spread against anyone right now, regardless of the number. How in the hell have the Cougs beaten Washington in 4 of the last 5 years?

Game 21: Tennessee (-3) @ Kentucky
Pick: Tennessee covers
Comment: Kentucky can’t beat Tennessee. That’s been proven over and over. It’s now 24 in a row for the Vols over UK, the longest series winning or losing streak in college football. Until they prove they can beat Tennessee, I’m not betting on the Cats. The Vols are 0-3 on the road this season but Kentucky is just 1-5 ATS at home.

Game 22: Arkansas (+3.5) @ LSU
Pick: LSU covers
Comment: This is a tough one. You know it’s going to come down to the end. And that’s a scary thought for LSU fans at the moment. Arkansas has pulled off back to back upsets in this series but they are 0-3 on the road this year while the Tigers are 5-1 at home. I’ll take LSU by 5 or 6.

Game 23: Notre Dame (+10) @ Stanford
Pick: Notre Dame beats the spread
Comment: This line started at 7. That’s quite a move in just a few days. Stanford is 5-1 at home this year, with their first loss at home coming in heart breaking fashion against Cal last week in the Big Game. That one will still be stinging this weekend and the Irish have won 7 in a row against Stanford. Stanford is 7-4 ATS this year, while ND is just 3-8 ATS. Still, Notre Dame has kept every single game close this season and I think they will again on Saturday, though I expect their winning streak against the Cardinal to come to an end.

Game 24: Georgia (+7.5) @ Georgia Tech
Pick: Georgia Tech covers
Comment: I’m trying to think of the last time I was this hopeless heading into any game. It would probably be in the mid-90’s going into a Florida game. Tech is 7-3 ATS this year and undefeated at home. The Dawgs are 3-8 ATS. I have to admit: I’d be flat out lying if I told you I thought it would ever get like this under Mark Richt.

Game 25: UCLA (+13) @ USC
Pick: UCLA beats the spread
Comment: I’m sure the Trojans will get it done against the other LA team this weekend but USC is not a good bet to cover a big spread right now. USC is a stunning 2-8 ATS this year. The Trojans have won 9 of 10 against UCLA, and again, I’m sure they’ll win for the 10th time in 11 tries on Saturday, but they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. UCLA. USC has won by at least 17 points in their last 4 home games vs. UCLA but this is not the typical Trojan team.



Moneyline Special

Ohio over Temple: In my opinion it’s a bit of a surprise that Ohio is a 2.5 point underdog at home against Temple this Friday. Both of these teams are good and Temple has been fairly dominant in the MAC, winning 9 straight games, going 8-2 ATS, and winning 4 of 5 on the road. Ohio has won 6 of their last 7 games and the Bobcats are 7-2 in their last 9 ATS. But I would take Temple to win this game for sure if not for one very important factor. Bernard Pierce, the star freshman running back for the Owls, is almost certainly out for this game. Pierce has rushed for 1308 yards and 15 TD, averaging 5.8 yards per carry. You can’t just make that up somewhere else, especially not against a good team on the road. Ohio will win.

Wyoming over Colorado State: The Cowboys are 3 point road dogs against the struggling Rams this weekend. CSU started the season 3-0 but since then they have dropped 8 straight and they are 2-8 ATS on the year. They are 2-3 at home, while Wyoming is 2-3 on the road. Wyoming has lost 4 of their last 5 but those losses were at Air Force, at Utah, and against BYU and TCU. The Rams have owned this series, winning 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 10, but Wyoming is 7-3 ATS this year and the Cowboys are going to pull off the road upset this weekend.

Duke over Wake Forrest: The Dukies are 4.5 point underdogs at home this Saturday against Wake. I don’t get this one. Sure, Duke is banged up and they’ve lost 3 straight, but Wake has lost 5 in a row and is 0-4 on the road this year. Duke is 5-3-1 ATS this season while the Deacons are just 5-6 ATS. WF has owned this series, winning 9 straight, but 6 of those 9 wins came by 7 points or less, including 4 by 3 points or less. In the last 3 years, Wake has won by a total of 9 points, and last year’s game at WF went into OT. The Dukies will end the streak this weekend and finish 6-6.

Marshall over UTEP: Marshall is a 1.5 point underdog on the road at UTEP this week. UTEP has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this year. They have lost 4 straight and 5 of 6. They have been beating by Memphis, Tulane, and Rice. Marshall has won twice on the road already this year and they’re coming off of a win over SMU. The Herd should roll.