The NFL Blog: 2009 Week 12 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (8-8); Straight Up (11-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (75-83-1); Straight Up (102-57)

Week 11 Review: I’m getting back to respectability. I was pretty spot on in the early Sunday games last week, 6-2 ATS, 7-1 straight up. Too bad the rest of the week I was 2-6 ATS, 4-4 straight up.

Week 12 Preview: All of the early games this week add a new wrinkle. Plus, a number of teams are coming off of emotional highs (Raiders, Chiefs, Dolphins, Titans, Lions); while a number of other teams are coming off of serious downers (Panthers, Bengals, Steelers, Texans, Browns). Then there are all of the injuries. It’ll be an interesting week.

Thursday’s Games

Green Bay (-11) @ Detroit
Pick: Packers cover
Comment: If not for the injuries at critical positions for the Lions I’m sure I would be betting on Detroit to beat the spread. The Packers have lost twice on the road this year and they’re 4-8 on the road over the last 2 seasons. A few weeks ago the Pack lost by 10 on the road against the lowly Bucs. And don’t forget that the Packers are banged up too. Aaron Kampman and Al Harris are now gone from a defense that was already just barley hanging together. Problems with the running game and pass protection have plagued Green Bay all year long. However, the Lions will be without their top 2 players on Thursday. Matt Stafford fired 5 TD’s and led the Lions to a thrilling victory last Sunday but in the process he injured his shoulder. Daunte Culpepper is not completely inept but his task will be much harder than it would have been if Calvin Johnson was not also out with an injury. Statistically the Packers are better in almost all of the relevant categories. And Green Bay has dominated this rivalry recently. Earlier this year the Packers whipped the Lions 26-0 at home for their 8th straight win over Detroit. In their last 5 meetings, the Packers have outscored the Lions by an average of 18 points. I’ll be rooting for Detroit but I think it’s going to be another ugly Thanksgiving for Lions fans.

Oakland (+13.5) @ Dallas
Pick: Cowboys win but Raiders beat the spread
Comment: Man, those Raiders can really screw up a parlay. You just never know when they are going to rise up against a complacent opponent. You expect that they’ll lie down and lose by 20 points the way they did in the last few games and then all of the sudden they knock off one of the better teams in the NFL. It’s happened several times over their recent run of futility and it happened again last week against the Bengals. As we know, that doesn’t mean that they won’t play like a minor league team this week. Both teams are playing on short rest but the Raiders are the ones who have to travel. Dallas has struggled in recent weeks, scoring only 7 points in each of their last two games against mediocre competition. The most important factor in this matchup is almost certainly the fact that the Bruce Gradkowski is now playing under center for the Silver and Black. If that doesn’t explain JaMarcus Russell’s situation perfectly than I don’t know what does. The Raiders are 1-3 on the road this year, while the Cowboys are 4-1 at home, and I don’t expect Oakland to win this game, but I think they might stay within 11 or so.

New York Giants (-6) @ Denver
Pick: Giants win but Broncos beat the spread
Comment: While this isn’t quite the marquee matchup we thought it might be in early October when both teams were 5-0, but it’s a lot better than we ever thought it would be in August. This is a huge game for both teams. The Giants snapped their 4 game skid last week but they did it at home, coming off of a bye, against a crippled Falcons team, and they needed overtime to get it done. Denver’s 4 game losing streak is still alive and they absolutely must win this game to save their once promising season. The biggest key for Denver is Kyle Orton. Is he healthy enough to play well? If so, can they keep him healthy for the entire game? It’s not that Orton is that great; it’s that the drop off after Orton is steep. We learned again last week what we already knew: Chris Simms is not a viable option at QB if you’re actually serious about winning the game. It would also really help the Broncos if Brian Dawkins could get back onto the field for this game. The Giants are without Antonio Pierce and Ahmad Bradshaw, while Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Jacobs are banged up but expected to play. New York can not afford to be without Nicks or Jacobs for a significant part of this game. While both teams are playing on short rest, I think you do have to take into consideration the fact that the Giants have to travel across the country. And then there is that elevation thing. New York is 0-5 in their last 5 games ATS, including 4 games as a favorite. On the other hand, the Broncos have lost 4 straight ATS and they were underdogs in 3 of those games. I think the Broncos will be more competitive this week than they have been during their 4 game losing skid but I think the Giants will pull out the victory in the end.

Sunday’s Early Games

Tampa Bay (+11.5) @ Atlanta
Pick: Falcons cover
Comment: I don’t want to analyze this one too much because I don’t even want to consider the idea that the outcome of this game might be in doubt. The Falcons have to win this game and they really should win it easily in spite of whatever injuries they have. Michael Turner will almost certainly not play and Jerious Norwood’s availability is still up in the air. Regardless, the Falcons should be able to handle the Bucs. The Falcons are 4-0 at home this season (4-0 ATS) and 11-1 at home in the Ryan/Turner/Smith (9-2-1 ATS). Tampa is 0-4 on the road this year but they lost by only 3 at Washington and by only 2 at Miami. The Falcons need to win this game going away, but at least 2 TD’s or so.

Miami (-3.5) @ Buffalo
Pick: Dolphins win but Bills beat the spread
Comment: Last year Miami never had to play in Buffalo. The Dolphins beat the Bills at home but their road game against Buffalo was played on a neutral field in Toronto. That was one of a slew of breaks the Dolphins caught last season on their way to the playoffs, as they have struggled historically in Buffalo. The Bills are trying to get their head coaching situation figured out right now and they enter this game having lost 3 straight, and having already lost 3 games at home this year. The Dolphins will be playing on 10 days of rest but they are without Ronnie Brown. In week 4 the Dolphins dominated the Bills 38-10 in Miami but it’s a different game up in Buffalo. Miami demands respect by never folding and continually fending off adversity. I expect them to win again this week but I like the Bills to stay within a field goal.

Cleveland (+14) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Bengals cover
Comment: While the Browns were suffering through another painful moment at the end of their loss to Detroit last week, the Bengals had an early lead in Oakland and appeared on their way to a commanding lead in the AFC North. But the Bengals turned back into the Bungals later on that afternoon, giving the game away to the Raiders in a major setback. So both of these teams will be coming off of emotional letdowns. The Browns appear in disarray but they were able to hang with the Bengals earlier this season in Cleveland, forcing Cinci into overtime. Amazingly, the Browns have been out-gained in every game this season other than their previous meeting with Cincinnati. Cedric Benson should be back on the field for the Bengals this week and that will be huge. I expect the Bengals to run over the Browns on offense and stifle them defensively. They should win at least 3 scores.

Indianapolis (-3.5) @ Houston
Pick: Colts win but Texans beat the spread
Comment: As bad as Houston’s home loss to the Titans was on Monday, I think they will be very competitive against the Colts this Sunday. A few weeks ago the Texans lost by just 3 to the Colts in Indy. And while the Colts are undefeated and have answered challenges against the Pats and Ravens in the last 2 weeks, it’s not as though they are dominating the competition. 6 of Indy’s 10 wins this season have been by 4 points or less. They’ve won their last 3 games by a combined total of 6 points. The Texans need to rebound from the Monday night disappointment and I think they’ll put a scare in the Colts this week, but at this point I’m just not going to pick Indy to lose.

Carolina (+3) @ New York Jets
Pick: Jets cover
Comment: This is a matchup of pretenders. After a 3-0 start, the Jets are 1-6 in their last 7 games (1-6 ATS), and they have lost 3 straight at home. The Panthers are 4-3 over their last 7 games following an 0-3 start to the season but their loss at home to a crippled Dolphins team was crushing. Carolina will be playing on extra rest but I have a feeling the Jets will come out on top in this one. It’s a field goal spread so I’ll just take the Jets to cover.

Washington (+9) @ Philadelphia
Pick: Eagles cover
Comment: The Redskins played the Cowboys tough last week but they are 0-5 on the road this year and absolutely ravaged by injuries. Philly isn’t exactly healthy either but they have more weapons, they are at home, and they already won by 10 at Washington earlier this year.

Seattle (-3) @ St. Louis
Pick: Seahawks cover
Comment: There’s not much to like about either of these teams. Seattle is 0-5 on the road this year (0-5 ATS). St. Louis is 0-5 at home this season but they have beaten the spread in their last 2 home games. They have won 3 straight ATS and 4 of 5. However, Seattle beat the Rams 28-0 at home in the season opener and that was the Seahawks’ 9th consecutive win over St. Louis. I just can’t bet on the Lams.

Sunday’s Late Games

Kansas City (+13.5) @ San Diego
Pick: Chargers win but Chiefs beat the spread
Comment: The Chiefs played a hard-hitting overtime affair against the Steelers last week but it was worth it, as they pulled out the upset for their 2nd straight win. They have won 3 straight ATS and 5 of their last 6. The Chargers have won their last 5 games, winning 3 straight ATS and 4 of their last 5. Last month the Chargers went to KC and dominated the Chiefs, winning 37-7. Now we will see if the Chiefs can come back and play well on the road following their big win against the defending champs. I think the Chargers will win handedly but I think KC can stay within 12 or so.

Jacksonville (+3) @ San Francisco
Pick: Niners cover
Comment: At some point the Jags are going to show themselves to be complete frauds and their 6-4 record will be exposed as nothing but the natural result of a ridiculously easy schedule. The Jags have won 6 of 8, while the Niners have dropped 5 of 6. Still, I like SF to come out on top in this one. It’s a field goal spread so I’ll take the Niners to cover.

Arizona (+1) @ Tennessee
Pick: Titans cover
Comment: Tennessee is playing like a very capable team again and surprisingly (to me at least) Vince Young is getting it done at quarterback. The Titans have won 4 straight, going 4-0 ATS in those games, and they won their last 2 home games by scores of 30-13 (Jax) and 41-17 (Buf). Arizona has won 6 of 7 (5-2 ATS) and they are a surprising 5-0 on the road this year. Kurt Warner isn’t 100% and it appears that the Cards are going to be careful with injuries the rest of the way, as they know they have the NFC West in their pocket. The Titans, on the other hand, have no room for error. I think the Titans will keep it going this week with a win at home over the Cards.

Chicago (+10.5) @ Minnesota
Pick: Vikings cover
Comment: Jay Cutler has thrown 18 picks; Brett Favre has thrown 3. The Bears cannot run the ball and the Vikings are tough for anyone to run on. Cutler should throw a few more picks, the Viking offense should have plenty of success moving the ball and scoring, and Minnesota should win by at least 2 TD’s.

Sunday Night’s Game

Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ Baltimore
Pick: Ravens cover
Comment: This is a huge game for both teams. It looks like Big Ben will be able to play and that’s bigger than big because they have no offense without him and no backup QB now that Charlie Batch is done. For the second time this year the Steelers have lost back to back games and they are just 3-7 this year ATS. They are 2-3 on the road this year, 1-4 ATS on the road. Last season the Steelers beat the Ravens 3 times. Baltimore is just 2-5 following a 3-0 start and they really need this game badly. The Steelers will be without Troy Polamalu and that may be the thing that allows the Ravens to win this game. The Ravens are at home, they are healthier, and they need this game a little bit more. For these reasons, I’m taking Baltimore to win by a field goal.

Monday Night’s Game

New England (+3) @ New Orleans
Pick: Saints cover
Comment: While this may not be the most important game of the week (the Saints have the NFC South wrapped up and the Patriots are in no real danger of failing to win the AFC East), it is certainly the most interesting and exciting matchup. If the Saints win this game I think it will have to be said that their odds of finishing the regular season undefeated are well above 50-50. After this game, the Saints have a road game against the crippled and offensively challenged Redskins, a tough road game against their rivals in Atlanta, a home game against the Cowboys, a home game against the miserable Bucs, and a road trip to Carolina in the season finale. They could easily win all of those games. So it’s a little interesting that the Patriots—who finished the regular season undefeated just 2 years ago—have perhaps the best chance to keep New Orleans from finishing 16-0. The Pats are more than capable of winning this game but I don’t think they will win a shootout. They’ll have to control the clock and force some turnovers. The Saints will have that raucous crowd on their side and the added advantage of having played a lighter schedule. For these reasons, I’m taking the Saints to win. It’s a field goal spread so I’ll take the home team to cover.