The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 11 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (0-9-1); Moneyline Upsets (0-1)
Season: Vs. Spread (40-57-3); Moneyline Upsets (7-18)

Week 10 Review: I knew my record was going to be bad but I was hoping I had gotten at least 1 game correct. Normally after a horrific weak like that I would have said something like “the record speaks for itself” but I don’t think that quite does the job (I was going to say “I don’t think that quite covers it this time” but immediately rephrased the sentence). For starters, let me just say that for one of the rare times since I started writing this blog I’m glad that I’m not doing this for a large audience. Actually, I’m not all that embarrassed for two reasons: firstly, I know that most people had a difficult time with predictions last week; second, I know that nobody reads this. With that in mind, I feel compelled to point out a couple of pathetic factoids about last week. Not only was I completely wrong save for a push in 1 game, I wasn’t really all that close to getting anything right and I really shouldn’t have gotten a push in the Houston-Tulsa game. It took Houston going on a last minute drive for a TD, then recovering an onside kick, then moving into field goal range in 20 seconds, and kicking a FG of over 50 yards just to get me a push. The other thing that I must point out is that 5 of the 7 favorites I took not only failed to cover but actually lost, and Houston would have made it 6 of 7. And one final note: Washington was exciting again and fucked me over again.

Week 11 Preview: At this point it can only get better unless I can’t find 1 push out of 10 this week. But the pressure’s off. I’ve been talking about the lack of exciting/interesting matchups over the last few weeks but last week actually ended up being a little more interesting than anticipated. Maybe that’s why I’m a bit more optimistic about this week being exciting.

Thursday

Game 1: South Florida (-1) @ Rutgers
Pick: South Florida covers
Comment: I guess I like South Florida in this one. It’s really only notable because it’s on Thursday night. Going into the season I thought Rutgers had a good chance to win the Big East and grab the BCS bid because their schedule was so favorable. It hasn’t quite worked out that way and Rutgers really hasn’t shown much. Of course they really haven’t had too many opportunities to show anything. They opened the season with a devastating blowout loss to Cincinnati at home. Over the following 5 weeks they played 4 games and won all of them. However, those 4 wins came against Howard, FIU, and Texas Southern at home. The lone road win was over Maryland. In week 7 they finally played their second game against a reasonable opponent, this one too at home, and they promptly lost to Pitt. Since then they have won on the road against Army and Connecticut. 6 wins is about the minimum they could have imagined having at this point. After 12 days off they will now play yet another home game, as South Florida rolls into town led by their redshirt freshman QB. The Bulls haven’t played a daunting schedule either and they’ve lost to both of the better than average teams in the Big East (Cinci at home; Pitt on the road) by a combined 44 points. On the other hand, they do have a decent win, beating West Virginia by 11 at home their last time out. They also have already won 3 times on the road this season, though winning at Western Kentucky, Florida State, and Syracuse is not overly impressive. USF will have had 13 days off by the time Thursday comes around. This could be a sloppy game. I’ll take South Florida because they haven’t been quite as unimpressive as Rutgers this season, and because the Knights are just 4-7 at home against teams from BCS conferences and the WAC over the last 3 years.

Friday

Game 2: West Virginia (+8.5) @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati covers
Comment: This game would be much more interesting if we were talking about Rich Rod’s Mountaineers and not Bill Stewart’s. Cinci is coming off of an uncharacteristically close win against Connecticut at home last Saturday night. They have two quarterbacks they feel good about but after giving up 20 points or less in their first 8 games, the Bearcat defense allowed 45 last week. The good news is that West Virginia is no longer an explosive team. In the past 4 weeks they have averaged 22 points per game against Marshall, UConn, USF, and Louisville. After losing by 11 at South Florida, WV managed just a 17-9 win over lowly L-Ville at home last Saturday. Before last week Cinci had won all 8 games by at least 8 points, including 7 by double digits. I think they’ll get back to winning by double digits again on Friday night in a game that won’t be as competitive as viewers will hope.

Saturday

Game 3: Florida (-16) @ South Carolina
Pick: Florida covers
Comment: Steve Spurrier has had a wonderful career in football with numerous highs. He has also had some notable lows. His overall stay at South Carolina hasn’t exactly been one of the worst points of his career but his consistent mediocrity at SC juxtaposed with the Uber success of Urban Meyer and Florida has made it one of the low points of the Ol’ Ball Coach’s career because it is so obvious and so impossible to ignore. The Gators are basically 5 wins away from establishing themselves as one of the greatest powers in modern sports history. As it applies to Spurrier, Urban Meyer is 5 wins away from tripling the number of National Championships won by Stevie in his 12 years at Florida, and doing it in just five seasons. As much as this all pains me, I have to admit, that deserves a wow. And it has to hurt just a bit for Spurrier. And what about this? Without question, the low point of Spurrier’s football career was his eventual failure as head coach of the Washington Redskins. What if he had stayed at Florida? Do you think he wishes he had stayed? An even better question: do you think Florida fans wish he had stayed? During the 3-year long Ron Zook era this would have been a dumb question. What’s incredible is that at this moment it’s an even dumber question, but the implied response has changed. Instead of Spurrier’s departure being an end of an era of unimagined success for Florida fans and a return to the ordinary, his departure can now be seen as a necessary step towards the unfathomable (and torturous for the rest of us) level of success that they now enjoy. And Spurrier knows all of this to be true. Everyone knows that the biggest day in the history of Florida football was the day that Spurrier became the head coach at his alma mater. But the biggest day in the history of Steve Spurrier may have been the day he stepped down from that post.

At this point I find myself expecting Spurrier to announce any day now that this will be his last season at South Carolina, and presumably his last season as a coach. The Gamecocks are in the midst of another stumble down the stretch of the season. In his first season in Columbia back in 2005, Spurrier had the Gamecocks at 7-3, having won 5 straight games, all in the SEC, including an upset of a ranked Tennessee team in Knoxville. That hot streak was topped off by the ultimate win for Spurrier in his return to the SEC: a 30-22 upset of the #12 Gators—his Gators—in front of his new hometown fans at Williams Brice Stadium. Not only was this a huge win for South Carolina, it soured Urban Meyer’s first season in Gainesville, as the loss knocked the Gators out of the SEC Championship Game! It turns out that this will almost certainly be the high point of Spurrier’s 2nd coaching career in the SEC. Heading into the season finale, the Gamecocks were ranked for the first time all season and they would be at home against 6-4 Clemson, with a chance to finish off Spurrier’s great first season with a win over an arch rival who had dominated them over the last decade. It came down to a few kicks here and there but in the end the Cocks lost at home, 13-9, Tommy Bowden kept his job, and South Carolina wound up 7-4 and in the Independence Bowl. In Shreveport, the GC’s led 28-7 before Mizzu rallied for a stunning 38-31 win. With losses in the final two games, South Carolina ended Spurrier’s first season a somewhat disappointing 7-5. They had gone to their first bowl game since 2001 (remember South Carolina and Clemson decided not to accept bowl bids following the brawl on the field in the 2004 season finale) but they were just 1 victory better than their 6-5 record in Lou Holtz’ final season the year before.

The following season South Carolina began the season 5-2 but in the meat of the schedule they lost 3 straight and wound up 8-5. The season (and the fates of Spurrier, Meyer, Florida, et al) was nearly transformed when Spurrier and the GCs came literally inches from shocking the Gators for the 2nd year in a row. This time it would have been much bigger and much more damaging to Florida. The Gators were #6 at the time and a 2nd loss would have put them out of the hunt for the National Championship. But the Gators hung on in the Swamp, 17-16, thanks to some blocked kicks and some penalties. A win over rival Clemson and a victory in the Liberty Bowl helped to salvage the season for Spurrier and the Cocks, as they improved their record by a win from the year before. Then in 2007 South Carolina came in without much hype and midway through the season it looked like Spurrier was going to pull a dark horse SEC East title out of his hat. After opening the season unranked, the GCs won 6 of their first 7 games, knocking off #11 UGA on the road, as well as #8 Kentucky, and their only loss was a fairly impressive showing at #2 LSU. They were 6-1 and had risen to the #6 ranking in the country as they hosted Vanderbilt as a 13.5 point favorite. Spurrier’s offense imploded and the Cocks were leveled by a disastrous 17-6 defeat at the hands of the Dors. The Cocks would go on to lose their final 5 games—including an overtime loss in Knoxville, a 51-31 loss to the Gators at home, and a 2 point loss against rival Clemson at home in the season finale--to finish the season 6-6 and spend bowl season at home. Last year SC opened with a 34-0 win over NC State but they lost to Vandy again the next week as the #24 team in the country. But South Carolina ended with a 7-3 record after 10 games and they were ranked #24 again as they traveled to the Swamp to play those Gators again. This time there would be no upset. This time there would be no scare. This time Spurrier found himself on the other end of the type of beating he had commanded his Gators to deal out on so many teams back in his day. The final score was 56-6. The next week SC lost by 17 against Clemson and they were defeated by 21 in the Outback Bowl against Iowa, as they dropped their final 3 games to finish up 7-6.

To this point the most wins Spurrier has led the GC’s to in any season is 8; 1 less than the 9 wins that Lou Holtz directed SC to in 2001. In fact, Spurrier has yet to achieve a season as good as Holtz’s 2nd best season (8-4 in 2000) at SC. Spurrier has won 7 games or less every year but 2006 and his teams have lost at least 5 games each season. This year SC started out strong again, winning 5 of 6, including a stunning victory over preseason darling Ole Miss. SC was 5-1 a few weeks ago but they have lost 3 of their last 4 (the only win coming at home against Vandy by just 4 points). In their last 2 games the Cocks have been soundly on the road by Tennessee and Arkansas, a couple of programs that appear to have overtaken South Carolina in terms of upward momentum. At 6-4, the Cocks are bowl eligible but if they do not beat either Florida or Clemson at home over the final few weeks they may not be included in the postseason. Even if Spurrier beat Florida and then SC rival Clemson to finish 8-4, if he retired at the end of the season his time at SC would have to be deemed a major disappointment. However, if SC can figure out a way to upset Florida this Saturday, it would throw a major wrench in Florida’s plans to win another NC. This might just be the Ol’ Ball Coach’s last hurrah. But that’s unlikely. The Gators are rolling and in their last two meetings with SC they’ve won by 20 and by 50, outscoring the Cocks 107-37. I like the Gators to win by 3 TD’s or more.

Game 4: Idaho (+31) @ Boise State
Pick: Idaho beats the spread
Comment: The Potato Bowl baby! At least that’s what I’m calling it. I picked the Broncos lose exactly zero games during the regular season this year. That looks like a good call so far, as they are 9-0 and heavily favored to win their final 4 games and finish 13-0. I picked the Vandals to win exactly zero games this year. That pick looks not quite as good so far, as they have won 7 of their first 10, and have a decent chance to win 8, as they host Utah State after a bye in their season finale. The Vandals were undefeated in WAC play until they gave up 70 to Nevada in a 25 point defeat. Last week they lost by 10 at home to Fresno State and Boise State has won 4 games by at least 35 points this season so the spread is not too big. Idaho is actually 17-20-1 all-time against Boise State but they’ve lost the last 10, including the last 5 on the blue turf by an average score of 59-20. Over the last 5 years, the closest score has been a 26 point loss in Moscow in 2006. Last year it was just 17-10 at halftime but the final score was 45-10. Boise has allowed a couple of teams to hang around this season but they are almost unbeatable at home. If Idaho were to win this game it would be one of the greatest upsets in sports history. I’m predicting the Vandals to dig deep, play the best game in the history of their program, and stay within 30 points.

Game 5: Iowa (+17) @ Ohio State
Pick: Ohio State covers
Comment: Interesting spread. I wonder what it would be if Ricky Stanzi was playing. Iowa is crippled and coming off a crushing loss at home to Northwestern that killed their dreams of an undefeated season, a National Championship, and perhaps even a BCS bowl. The Buckeyes are coming off of an impressive 24-7 win at Penn State and they have another Big Ten title in their sights. After opening the season with a 4 point win over Navy and a 3 point loss to USC, the Bucks have gone 7-1, with each of their 7 wins coming by at least 17 points. I expect them to roll over the Hawkeyes and finish them off.

Game 6: Stanford (+11) @ USC
Pick: USC covers
Comment: This is almost certainly the “weakest” Trojan team since Pete Carroll’s first year at USC in 2001. With that said, they are still pretty good, especially at home. Stanford is 1-3 on the road this year, with their only win coming at Wazu. In other words, they are 0-3 on the road. It may be difficult for Stanford to come back from their huge win over Oregon and play at the same level against Troy. I like USC by a couple of TD’s.

Game 7: Auburn (+4) @ Georgia
Pick: Georgia covers
Comment: Trust me; I don’t have much confidence in this pick. Traditionally homefield has meant nothing in this rivalry. The Dawgs have won 3 in a row over Auburn but this is not a normal Bulldawg team. Auburn has been up and down and I’m just hoping they are down this week and the Dawgs get the 6th win out of the way now.

Game 8: Texas Tech (+4) @ Oklahoma State
Pick: Texas Tech beats the spread
Comment: Who knows what to make of the Big XII this season. Both of these teams have been pretty good following some early season bumps in the road. Since losing back to back games to Texas and Houston, the Red Raiders have gone 4-1, with a random 22 point loss to A&M at home squeezed between 4 wins by at least 20 points. After losing at home to Houston in their 2nd game, the Cowboys have gone 6-1, with a 27 point loss to Texas the only defeat during that time. The home team usually wins this game. I’m just going with a gut feeling here.

Game 9: Miami (-3.5) @ North Carolina
Pick: Miami covers
Comment: UNC has a chance to make this a not-so-disappointing season if they can win out and finish 9-3. Miami has been inconsistent, crushing Georgia Tech one week and getting blown out by Virginia Tech the next. They came back with a win over Oklahoma but then lost at home to Clemson and barley hung on to beat Wake. The home team has had the upper hand in this series but I think the Canes will get it done against UNC

Game 10: Utah (+19.5) @ TCU
Pick: Utah beats the spread
Comment: TCU is starting to get the respect they deserve. The Frogs are 9-0 and 7 of their wins have come by 16 points or more. Utah was not as good as their record indicated last season and the same is true this year. Still, the Utes don’t lose by 20 very often. I think they can stay within 17 points or so. They could lose by 3 scores and still beat the spread and that’s what I’m predicting.

Moneyline Special

Tennessee over Mississippi: The Vols are 5 point underdogs on the road this Saturday. This is really just a gut feeling for me. Tennessee is 0-2 on the road this year but the losers of the Civil War have yet to impress anyone this season.

Notre Dame over Pittsburgh: The Irish are underdogs at Pitt this weekend by a full 7 points. Another gut feeling, although I think ND has more talent. After last week’s loss to Navy, ND needs to win out in order for the season to be considered anything but a major disappointment. It starts with the game at Pitt this weekend. No matter what happens, I think Fat Chuck will be around at least another season.

Tulane over Rice: Tulane is a 3 point road dog against Rice this weekend. I realize that Tulane blows and that their only win in their last 10 road games was a 1 point win over Army this season. I’m also aware that Rice nearly knocked off SMU on the road last week. However, Rice is 0-9 on the season, and before last week the closest they had come to avoiding defeat was 17 points. And by the way, Tulane’s last road win prior to the victory over Army this season was their last trip to Rice late in the 07 season.

Fresno State over Nevada: Fresno State is a 7 point underdog against Nevada on the road this Saturday. Another gut feeling. After losing their first 3 games by double digits, the Wolf Pack has won 6 straight. The Bulldogs lost 3 straight early in the year to fall to 1-3 but since then have won 5 straight. Fresno has won 8 of 10 over Nevada and I like them to pull off the upset this Saturday.

Marshall over Southern Mississippi: Marshall hosts Southern Miss as a 3 point dog this weekend. I might be grasping for straws (is that a phrase?) here but Southern Miss is 0-4 on the road this year and anything can happen in the C-USA, where mediocrity is king.