Tuesday, November 17, 2009

The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 12 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (1-9); Moneyline Upsets (0-5)
Season: Vs. Spread (41-66-3); Moneyline Upsets (7-23)

Week 11 Review: Honestly, even I have been downright stunned by how awful I’ve done picking games recently. Do you know how hard it is to win only 1 of 20 bets against the spread over a 2 week period. If you accept the idea that spread bets are close to 50-50, the chances are tremendously high that you’re going to win more than 1 of 20 bets even if you just flip a coin.

Week 12 Preview: Preview? How’s about this: I’m fucking terrified.

Saturday

Game 1: Ohio State (-12.5) @ Michigan
Pick: Ohio State covers
Comment: Big road favorites have fucked me recently. This is also a road game. But how can anyone think Michigan is capable of anything at this point? Michigan has lost 5 straight to Ohio State, last year falling 42-7 in Columbus. Michigan is just 12-10 at home since the start of the 07 season. Ohio State is 16-2 on the road since the start of the 06 season. Ohio State has won 7 games by at least 17 points this year; Michigan has lost 3 of their last 4 by at least 21 points. Michigan played 3 games this year against MAC teams and a team from the FCS. They won all 3 of those games at home by at least 24 points. They have played 8 games against Notre Dame and the Big Ten. They are 2-6 in those games, winning by 4 over ND at home and by 3 over Indiana at home. They have lost 6 of their last 7 games, with the lone win being a 63-6 home win over Delaware State of the FCS. Ohio State has won 8 of 9, the only loss coming at Purdue by 8. 7 of the 8 wins have been by at least 17 points. I’m sorry but there’s just no logical reason to think the Wolverines can stay within 2 TD’s in this game.

Game 2: Oklahoma (-6.5) @ Texas Tech
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: I know what I just wrote about big favorites on the road. And both of these teams have been inconsistent. But I feel better about Oklahoma than I do about Texas Tech. I wish this spread were more like 4.5. Obviously the Red Raiders are a different team at home. They’ve won 19 of their last 22 at home. But one of those losses came a few weeks ago against Texas A&M by the score of 52-30. Oklahoma beat A&M 65-10 last week. Obviously the Sooners are a different team away from home. They’ve won 29 straight at home since the second game of the 05 season, while going 13-7 in true road games over the same time. But even though Oklahoma’s offense has been up and down this year, their defense has been stout basically all season. In 10 games the Sooners have allowed 16 points or less 8 times and allowed more than 21 points only once. Texas Tech’s offense has not been as potent this year but their defense has been about as bad as usual. In 10 games this season they’ve allowed at least 21 points 6 times (2 of the games in which they held the opposition to less than 21 points were against North Dakota and Rice at home). And last week the Red Raiders scored only 17 points against Oklahoma State, snapping a 26 game streak of scoring at least 24 points. I don’t feel strongly about this one but I like the matchup of Oklahoma’s best unit (their defense) going up against Texas Tech’s best unit (offense).

Game 3: Connecticut (+6) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Connecticut beats the spread
Comment: Notre Dame should be able to win a game like this easily but they haven’t done that during Fat Charlie’s tenure. And UConn has fought tooth and nail every game despite adversity. The Huskies have lost 5 of 9 games this year but each of their losses has come by 4 points or less against bowl eligible teams. They’re 2-3 on the road this year with their 3 losses coming to Pitt, West Virginia, and Cincinnati by a total of 9 points. The Irish are now 6-4, 4-2 at home. Of their 6 wins, only 2 have come by more than 7 points. Their 7 point win came in OT against Washington at home. Their 2 wins by more than 7 were against Nevada at home and Washington State at a neutral site. The Huskies are coming off of a bye week, while the Irish are coming off of back to back tough losses to Navy and Pitt. ND’s hopes and dreams are dashed, while UConn is starving for a win to honor their fallen teammate. I like UConn to keep it close.

Game 4: Air Force (+10) @ BYU
Pick: Air Force beats the spread
Comment: BYU has been less dominant than expected the last few years, while AF has been more competitive than expected. The Cougars came into this season with 18 straight wins at home but they’re just 2-2 at home this season. The Cougs have owned the Falcons in recent years and Air Force is just 9-9 on the road over the last 3 years. However, in 11 games this year the Falcons are 7-4, with each of their 4 losses coming by 7 points or less (2 in overtime). They lost to TCU by 3 at home and lost by 7 at Utah in OT. BYU has no shot at a BCS bowl and virtually no shot at winning the Mountain West. They could also be looking ahead to a showdown with Utah. This will be Air Force’s last game and their last chance to finish the deal against one of the powers in the MWC, something they couldn’t do against TCU and Utah. I think AF will keep within single digits.

Game 5: LSU (+3.5) @ Mississippi
Pick: Mississippi covers
Comment: My gut reaction was to take LSU straight up. But LSU is banged up and whoever their QB is he will likely struggle against the Mississippi defense. Mississippi is without Greg Hardy but the defense should be okay without him at home against LSU. On the other side of the ball, Mississippi should be able to hide Jevan Snead by giving the ball to Dexter McCluster and the other backs. Mississippi has been disappointing this year but they are 5-1 at home, with convincing wins over Arkansas and Tennessee, and their only loss coming against Bama. LSU is 3-1 on the road this year, with their only loss coming at Bama, but they also could/should have lost at UGA and at Mississippi State. Mississippi whipped the Tigers last year. I wouldn’t be surprised if LSU won this game but I’m taking Mississippi to win by 4 to 6 points.

Game 6: Penn State (-3.5) @ Michigan State
Pick: Michigan State beats the spread
Comment: The Nittany Lions are just 2-4 in their last 6 at East Lansing. The Spartans have been tough to figure this season. They are just 6-5 and they could easily be 4-7. On the other hand, they could just as easily be 9-2. Penn State is 9-2 this season, with their only losses coming against Iowa and Ohio State, and each of their 9 wins coming by at least 11 points. But they were sloppy at home against Indiana and this is a bigger game for the Spartans than it is for the Lions. I think MSU will have a chance to steal this game late.

Game 7: Cal (+7.5) @ Stanford
Pick: Stanford covers
Comment: This is a perfectly awful spread. Stanford will have to get up for a 3rd straight big game, in this case actually The Big Game. Cal has been up and down as usual. It has to matter that Cal is without Jahvid Best, although the Bears were still able to beat Arizona by 8 without him at home last week. Somewhat surprisingly, Cal is 3-1 on the road this year, but their loss was by 39 at Oregon, and one of their wins was by 2 at ASU. Stanford is 5-0 at home this season and they beat the Bears at home two years ago to snap Cal’s 5 game win streak in the series. I think Cal could keep it close but I just can’t put my faith in them.

Game 8: Kansas State (+16.5) @ Nebraska
Pick: Nebraska covers
Comment: At first glance this seemed like a huge spread to me. Then I started looking at it and the big spread started to seem more and more reasonable. These two teams play every year and KSU has won only 5 times since 1969. Nebraska has won 4 straight, the last two by a combined 70 points. KSU is 0-4 on the road this year and 2-13 on the road over the last 3 years. KSU has already lost at Louisiana-Lafayette and at UCLA this season, and last week they were pounded at home by Missouri, 38-12. Nebraska’s season was turned upside down when they were whipped at home by Texas Tech, 31-10, and then a week later they were shocked at home by Iowa State, 9-7. But that Iowa State game was incredibly fluky, as they turned the ball over 7 times. And their only other loss this year came on the road against Virginia Tech by a point, a game which they gave away. In 10 games, the Cornhuskers have allowed 17 points or less 9 times. Since losing back to back games at home, Nebraska has won by 10 at Baylor, upset Oklahoma 10-3 at home, and beaten Kansas on the road by 14. 16.5 points is a lot but Nebraska should cover.

Game 9: Oregon (-6) @ Arizona
Pick: Arizona beats the spread
Comment: I really like Arizona in this one. The Cats are 12-2 in their last 14 home games, 5-0 at home this season. Their only 2 losses in their last 14 home games have been by 7 to USC and by 2 to Oregon State. Oregon is 6-6 in their last 12 road games, 2-2 on the road this season. The Ducks will probably win but I think it’ll be closer than 6 points.

Game 10: North Carolina (+3.5) @ Boston College
Pick: North Carolina beats the spread
Comment: This spread was bigger than I thought it would be. BC is tough at home. They are 6-0 at home this season and they’ve won 11 of their last 12 home games. In fact, they are 33-5 at home since the start of the 04 season. UNC has been awful on the road this decade, but they are 5-3 on the road over the last 2 seasons, including wins at Rutgers, at Miami, at UConn, and at Virginia Tech. They’re 2-1 on the road this year, with their only loss coming at GT. UNC has disappointed this season but in their last 3 games they have upset VT on the road, beaten UNC by 13 at home, and beaten Miami by 9 at home. BC is coming off of a 4 point win at UVA. BC did have a close call at home earlier this season. Leading by a field goal over WF in OT, the Deacons had a 1st and goal. If Wake couldn’t score a TD to win it, they at least had a chip shot field goal in their pocket to send it to a 2nd overtime. But Riley Skinner dropped the shotgun snap and BC recovered to save themselves. The Heels have never won 4 straight under Butch Davis but Davis is 7-0 against BC, including UNC’s 45-24 win over the Eagles last year. BC may indeed win at home again, but I think this one goes down to the wire.

Moneyline Special

Indiana over Purdue: The hard luck Hoosiers are 3.5 point underdogs at home this weekend against their rivals. Purdue is probably the better team. If you look at Purdue’s season this year, they haven’t been as bad as you’d expect a 4-7 to be. They lost by 2 at Oregon; they lost to ND by 3; they beat Ohio State by 8; they beat Illinois by 10; they beat Michigan on the road; and they lost by 3 to Michigan State. They are 1-3 on the road this year but they won their last road game (over Michigan) to snap an 11 game road losing streak. The Boilermakers have won 10 of 12 against Indiana but they lost in their last trip to Bloomington, 27-24 back in 2007. Compared to most teams from BCS conferences, Indiana’s 11-9 record at home over the last 3 years is pathetic. But for Indiana it’s actually not that bad. And if Purdue has been more competitive than their 4-7 record indicates, certainly the Hoosiers have been better than their 4-7 record indicates. They had a lead late in the 4th quarter at Michigan before losing by 3 with help from some highly questionable officiating. They had a huge lead at Northwestern but choked and lost by a point. They had Iowa on the ropes at the Hawkeyes’ place but fluke plays and more dubious officiating helped Indiana go from way up to way down. They lost by 3 to Wisconsin the next week. Last week they led Penn State 10-0 and they were in the game until a defensive TD broke it open in the 2nd half. And all of these instances, the better team has probably ended up winning, but the Hoosiers have shown no signs of quitting and they deserve a win. They’re at home and they’re playing a team they can beat. You can feel confident they’ll be in it. Maybe this time they can hang on.

SMU over Marshall: SMU is a 3.5 point underdog at Marshall this weekend. The Thundering Herd fucked me over last week. SMU has been shaky and their record on the road in recent years is hideous. Still, SMU has a ton to play for and they are the better team. Go Mustangs!

San Jose State over Hawaii: San Jose State is a 3.5 point dog at home this weekend against Hawaii. Hawaii could easily win this game by 20 points. San Jose State is one of the few teams in the country still winless against FBS opponents. Their only win in 10 games this season has been a 10 point victory at home against Cal Poly. In their last 4 games they’ve been outscored 172-44. Coach Dick Tomey recently announced he will retire after the season. This season has been an utter disaster for the Spartans. On the other hand, they’ve played only 4 home games. In their 4 home games they have lost by 10 to Utah, beaten Cal Poly by 10, lost by 4 to Idaho, and gotten smushed by Nevada, 62-7. Now Hawaii comes to town. The Warriors have struggled away from the island historically. This year they are 1-4 on the road, with their 1 win coming at WAZU. SJS won last year at Hawaii. This is a shot in the dark.

Army over North Texas: Army is a 1.5 point underdog on the road against the Mean Green this weekend. Not much of an upset you say? Clearly you do not grasp how low my standards have fallen over the last few weeks. Is Army favored? No. So it’s an upset.

Louisiana-Lafayette over Louisiana-Monroe: ULL is a 2.5 point dog at home against ULM. They call this the Battle of the Bayou. Traditionally the visiting team wins this one. It’s a toss up and I’m hoping for some luck.

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