The College Football Blog: 2009 Week 10 Betting Lines

Last Week: Vs. Spread (5-5); Moneyline Upsets (0-3)
Season: Vs. Spread (40-48-2); Moneyline Upsets (7-17)

Week 9 Review: Another .500 week ATS…and another horrible week picking moneyline upsets.

Week 10 Preview: For the 4th week in a row I have to admit that I’m not that fired up about the slate of college football games coming up this weekend. Maybe it’s because the Dawgs are having such a dreadful season. Once again it’s tough to find 10 games worthy of being mentioned in any list of great or even good matchups. And there are absolutely no matchups that look like potential moneyline upsets in my opinion. That’s probably a good thing, as I’ll be forced to go just 0-1 picking upsets instead of 0-5 or 0-10 or something worse.

Saturday

Game 1: Navy (+12) @ Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame covers
Comment: Picking ND to cover a double digit spread against a decent team in a rivalry game is a dicey proposition. Outside of an opening week blowout over disappointing Nevada at home and a 26 point win over the worst team from a BCS conference (Washington State) in San Antonio last week, ND’s games have all been incredibly close. Navy is not a bad team and they also play a lot of close games. They have competed well against ND recently. But as much as I hate Notre Dame, even I will admit that ND’s passing attack is stout and I don’t know that Navy has the athletes to slow them down. On the flip side, Navy isn’t going to be able to throw the ball all over the field against ND the way some other teams have done. Navy lost by 13 at Pitt and I don’t think a similar result is that unlikely this weekend in South Bend.

Game 2: Ohio State (+5) @ Penn State
Pick: Penn State covers
Comment: I don’t think Penn State is that special but they have taken care of business this year in all but one game (the loss to Iowa of course). In their 8 wins—all over bad or mediocre opponents—the Nittany Lions have outscored the opposition by at least 18 points. Ohio State is better than mediocre but not great and I think Terrell Pryor will struggle against PSU’s defense and in that hostile atmosphere. And remember, Ohio State’s offense goes as Pryor goes this year. It would be weird to see Ohio State lose 3 games in the regular season but it would be almost as weird to see Penn State lose twice at home; neither has happened since 2004. If Penn State doesn’t hurt themselves they should be able to win this game by 6 or so.

Game 3: LSU (+7.5) @ Alabama
Pick: LSU beats the spread
Comment: This should be a heated battle. If LSU springs the upset they will be on target to become one of the all-time dark horse national championship teams. On the other hand, if Bama wins they will be SEC West Champs and still on track for an SEC Championship rematch with the Gators. The bye week came at an ideal time for the Tide, as they were coming off hard fought victories against South Carolina and Tennessee. But since the loss to Florida, LSU has come back from the bye week with consecutive routes over Auburn and Tulane; outscoring those two opponents by a combined 73-10 (the only TD allowed came in the final minutes of a non-competitive game against Auburn). The Tigers seem to be rising, while the Tide doesn’t seem to be as unbeatable as they did a few weeks ago. But I think Saban’s defense will shut Jordan Jefferson and LSU down. As long as Bama doesn’t beat themselves, they should win, but I think it will be low scoring and close.

Game 4: Houston (-1) @ Tulsa
Pick: Houston covers
Comment: Please. There’s no way that this spread should be 1 point. Tulsa has a big homefield advantage; they are a decent team; they played Boise State close a few weeks ago. Of course, they also lost at home last week to SMU by 14 points. Sure they were looking ahead, but they still only scored 13 points against SMU. Houston had whipped SMU 38-15 the week before. I’ll take the Cougars by at least a TD.

Game 5: Florida State (+9.5) @ Clemson
Pick: Florida State beats the spread
Comment: Florida State isn’t very good. They’ve played a number of shootouts this year and been fortunate enough to win a couple of them. I don’t think they’ll win this game but 9.5 points is a rather large spread. Christian Ponder is going to play, so don’t worry about that. As for Clemson’s homefield advantage, well, they’ve lost at least 1 game at home in every season this decade, losing at least twice at home in 6 of 9 seasons and each of the last 4. They’ve already lost once at home this year. Clemson has played better following the debacle against Maryland but FSU has also won a couple in a row. Clemson has not played well as a favorite in recent years. Florida State has already pulled off a significant road upset this season, beating BYU 54-28 as an 8.5 point road dog in week 3. FSU has lost 4 games this year but 3 of those have come by 7 points or less and their biggest loss was by 10 points. I’m not saying FSU will win but I don’t see them losing by double digits.

Game 6: Oklahoma (-4) @ Nebraska
Pick: Oklahoma covers
Comment: I definitely lost a little regard for the Sooners win they only managed to beat KSU by a 42-30 score at home last week. But I have lost way, way more than a little regard for the Cornhuskers over their last 3 games, as they’ve lost 31-10 at home to Texas Tech; 9-7 at home to Iowa State; and beaten a QB-less Baylor team 20-10 on the road. Oklahoma should win by double digits.

Game 7: Kansas (-2.5) @ Kansas State
Pick: Kansas covers
Comment: The last 3 weeks have proven to us all what we all already knew: Kansas’ undefeated record through 5 weeks meant absolutely nothing. Since then they’ve lost 3 straight, including falling to a dreadful Colorado team and being doubled up by a mediocre Texas Tech squad. At one point early in the year it looked like Bill Snyder’s first year back as Kansas State’s head coach was going to be an absolute train wreck. Things are looking much better of late as the Wildcats have managed to win 3 of 5 conference games. This one is in Manhattan and if KSU stops the 3 year skid against the hated Jayhawks this Saturday, Snyder’s first year back will feel like a success no matter what happens the rest of the way this season. But I still think Kansas is slightly better. I think Kansas will win but I’ll be rooting for Snyder’s boys to smoke Mangino and co.

Game 8: Duke (+10) @ North Carolina
Pick: Duke beats the spread
Comment: Why is this a 10 point spread? UNC has won 18 of 19 in this series but the last 4 have been by a total of 18 points. This is the best Duke team of the decade. Is that saying much? No. But the Devils have won 3 straight conference games, 2 of them on the road, and UNC has lost as many games as Duke so far this year (3 a piece). The Heels have also lost twice at home already this season. UNC is coming off of a road win over VT but I don’t think they’ll embarrass the Devils, who have snuck up on some overconfident foes this year.

Game 9: Oregon (-7) @ Stanford
Pick: Oregon covers
Comment: This sets up as a trap game for the Ducks. They’ve won 7 straight. They are coming off of one of the biggest wins in school history, beating goliath USC by 27. They’ve won 7 in a row against Stanford by an average of 23 points. Everybody’s telling the Ducks how great they are. Stanford is coming off of a bye. They are 5-3, 7-1 at home over the last two seasons, and they have been in every game so far this year. They could easily be 7-1. But 7 is not the biggest spread in the world and Oregon made a believer out of me last week. I don’t think they’ll sleep on the Cardinal.

Game 10: USC (-10) @ Arizona State
Pick: USC covers
Comment: This seems like an easy pick to me. USC has won 9 straight over ASU. In 2007, USC had already lost 2 conference games and they had fallen to #11 in the country as they traveled to the desert to take on the #7 Sun Devils in front of a sold-out Thanksgiving crowd. The Trojans won 44-24. Last year Troy won 28-0. ASU has already lost twice at home this year and USC is not going to lose 3 conference games. The only way ASU stays in this game is if the USC players come into this game with their confidence shaken and their swagger gone, and the Devils are as fired up as they normally would be to play USC, and no longer intimidated by the seemingly vulnerable Trojans. I expect USC to come out wanting to put last week behind them and I think a rout of ASU will help get them started.

Moneyline Special

Washington over UCLA: The Huskies are 5 point road dogs this weekend against UCLA. I know I said I wouldn’t go back to Washington again this year but there just aren’t a lot of better options this week. This would be a surprise. Washington has lost 10 straight road games. The Huskies have lost 10 of 12 to UCLA and 6 straight in the Rose Bowl. But UCLA has lost 6 straight following a 3-0 start, all within the conference, including twice at home by double digits. Washington was off last week and I think they’ll come back from the bye to snap their road skid and extend UCLA’s slump.