The College Football Blog: 2009 Power Rankings (After Week 13)

Power Rankings after Week 13

1. Florida 12-0 (2nd)
2. Alabama 12-0 (1st)
3. Texas 12-0 (3rd)
4. TCU 12-0 (4th)
5. Oregon 9-2 (6th)
6. Cincinnati 11-0 (7th)
7. Boise State 12-0 (8th)
8. LSU 9-3 (9th)
9. Georgia Tech 10-2 (5th)
10. Ohio State 10-2 (10th)
11. Iowa 10-2 (11th)
12. Stanford 8-4 (14th)
13. Oregon State 8-3 (NR)
14. Penn State 10-2 (15th)
15. Pittsburgh 9-2 (12th)

Out: Oklahoma State (13th).

Comments: Last week it was easy to make out these rankings. Nothing like rivalry week to muddy the waters. The problem with ranking teams in this way is that it’s so hard to put recent results in a proper perspective. It’s also very hard to keep from using the previous week’s rankings as a key and moving teams up or down based on the latest results. I think this is almost exactly what happens with the human polls. You can start out trying to rank teams based purely on strength, using the evidence on the field to help make more informed decisions, but inevitably you start going “well these guys won so I can’t move them down, these guys lost so I have to move them down a little, these guys lost to this team head to head 5 weeks ago so I have to keep them behind them…” And again I’m struck by how silly it is to try and determine anything of importance using this method. Luckily for me (and everyone else) my rankings mean nothing. So let me explain how I came up with this week’s top 15.

There was a change at the very top of my rankings this week even though all of the top 4 teams won. By the way, the top 4 teams—Florida, Alabama, Texas, and TCU—are a step above the rest of the teams in college football, in my opinion, and that’s really the only thing I feel certain about at this point. I moved Florida back into the #1 spot this week and moved Bama down to 2nd even though both teams won rivalry games to finish the season undefeated. Texas and TCU remained in the #3 and #4 spots respectively this week. The Horns gave up a bunch of points but eventually put away a hated rival on the road to finish the year 12-0. The Frogs rolled over another weak opponent to get to 12-0. Obviously we will learn a lot next Saturday about Alabama and Florida. It might seem unfair to move Bama down after they beat a solid opponent on the road; an opponent with nothing to lose and everything to gain; and an opponent that hates their guts. Florida, on the other hand, was at home, playing a weaker rival; a rival without much direction at this point. I would agree that moving Florida ahead of Bama based solely on this last weekend would be rash. But I am not basing this switch on last weekend alone. I feel that Bama and Florida are the two best teams in the country. They are strong all around, they are well coached, they are tested, and their recent history backs up their results and our assumptions about them. Between the two teams, I have Florida ranked a bit higher at this point. There’s no question that Bama’s defense is top notch, but so is Florida’s defense. Offensively the Gators are not as strong as they were last season but they are still better on offense than Alabama in my opinion. Finally, I feel like the Gators are rising as the season comes to its conclusion, just as they were last year. The Tide seems to have hit its peak earlier in the season, in much the same way as Alabama did last year. So I have the Gators in the top spot and the Tide in the #2 spot heading into their showdown in the Dome this weekend.

After the top 4 there are a number of teams you could rank 5th-9th. Georgia Tech had been my #5 team but they were shocked and out-muscled at home by their rivals from Athens in a glorious upset. Defensively the Jackets were exposed a bit as the Dawgs ran up and down the field on them. On the other hand, GT did lose their QB for a while during the game and Josh Nesbitt may never have been himself after suffering a leg injury. This was Tech’s first poor performance in a number of weeks and I think it was just a bad game for them and not a sign that the rest of their season has been a mirage. So I only dropped them down to 9th. One thing I think you have to look at with this Tech team is the effect that rust can have. Last season they looked completely out of sync in their bowl game against LSU. On Saturday they were off of a bye week and they didn’t look right. In any potential big game if they are coming off of an extended rest it’s going to be a question. Anyway, Oregon was off last week but I moved them up to 5th. Cincinnati and Boise State both took care of business at home to stay undefeated and I moved them up a spot each to 6th and 7th respectively. LSU just barley squeaked by Arkansas at home in OT but I still moved them up a spot to 8th, and I have to admit it’s because of the way they shutdown Tech’s offense in the Peach Bowl last year. If I’m choosing between the Tigers and Jackets for 8th, I have to go with LSU.

The 10-15 spots in my rankings have been changing all season because there’s not much difference between the teams outside of the top 10. Ohio State and Iowa didn’t play last week so they stayed put at 10th and 11th respectively. Pitt was my #12 team but they lost a defensive struggle on the road against rival West Virginia for their 2nd loss of the season. This was a disappointing performance by the Panthers but there just aren’t that many good teams out there so they stayed in my rankings, hanging on to the final slot at #15. Oklahoma State was #13 in my rankings. We all know what happened to the Cowboys this weekend. They were exposed as frauds yet again, getting dominated in Norman by their rivals, 27-0. Okie State fell out of my rankings as you would assume. Stanford fought off Notre Dame to get to 8-4 and they moved up 2 spots in my rankings this week to 12th. Stanford is not that good; especially on defense. But they’ve been in every game and they’re definitely among the tougher teams to stop offensively. The only new team in my rankings this week is Oregon State. I haven’t paid much attention to the Beavers but they’ve been getting it done week in and week out for a while now. Oregon State is one of the few fringe teams who has not yet proven to be unworthy of my rankings. So they get the nod almost by default. Earlier in the year the Beaves beat Stanford but that game was at Corvallis and before Stanford starting hitting its stride. Finally, Penn State moved up a spot from 15th to 14th this week, primarily because there just aren’t many good teams out there. They’ve come up small in their biggest games this year but they’ve at least managed to win all of the other games easily, something many, many other top 15-ish teams out there have failed to do.